1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, steel prices maintained a weak and volatile trend. The profit of power - off - peak electricity for short - process steel decreased and fell into losses, leading to a reduction in production. The profit of long - process steel also fell into losses, but after the parade, the hot metal production quickly recovered to over 2.4 million tons. The overall supply remained high. The demand for hot - rolled coils recovered rapidly, while the demand for rebar declined due to large warehouse receipt pressure. The overall inventory continued to accumulate, with the rebar inventory accumulating faster than last year. It is expected that the short - term steel prices will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend. The trading strategy suggests maintaining a wait - and - see approach for both arbitrage and options [4][7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook 3.1.1 Market Summary - **Supply**: This week, the small - sample production of rebar was 2.1868 million tons (- 0.0188 million tons), and that of hot - rolled coils was 3.1424 million tons (- 0.105 million tons). The daily average hot metal output of 247 blast furnaces was 2.4055 million tons (+ 0.1171 million tons), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 35.2% (- 0.3%). The cost of flat - rate electricity for electric furnaces in East China was about 3,373 yuan/ton (converted to the futures price), with a profit of - 166.92 yuan/ton. The cost of off - peak electricity was about 3,208 yuan/ton (converted to theoretical weight), and the profit of off - peak electricity for the third - tier rebar in East China was - 2 yuan/ton [4]. - **Demand**: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar was 2.0207 million tons (- 0.04 million tons), and that for hot - rolled coils was 3.0536 million tons (+ 0.208 million tons). From January to July, the growth rate of China's fixed - asset investment decreased month - on - month, and the incremental investment in domestic projects was insufficient. In July, the decline in housing sales, land acquisition, new construction, and completion areas widened, and the overall demand for housing construction was weak. The manufacturing PMI contracted, and the new orders, production, and export data all declined. The production and export of Chinese automobiles in July increased year - on - year, but the industry profit continued to shrink. The production schedule of three major white goods in September decreased year - on - year, and it is expected to decline further in October. The initial value of the US manufacturing PMI in August reached a 39 - month high, and the initial value of the eurozone manufacturing PMI in August returned to the expansion range for the first time in three years [4]. - **Inventory**: The rebar inventory in steel mills decreased by 47,100 tons, and the social inventory increased by 185,700 tons, with a total increase of 138,600 tons. The hot - rolled coil inventory in steel mills increased by 9,000 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 19,200 tons, with a total decrease of 10,200 tons. The total inventory of five major steel products in steel mills decreased by 35,000 tons, and the social inventory increased by 174,100 tons, with a total increase of 139,100 tons [4]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - It is expected that the rebar production will continue to decrease due to serious losses in both short - and long - process production, while the hot - rolled coil production will continue to resume as it remains profitable. The overall inventory will continue to accumulate, with the rebar inventory accumulating faster than last year, and the hot - rolled coil inventory starting to decline. The steel prices are expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term. In September, attention should be paid to the peak - season demand, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies. The trading strategy suggests a bottom - oscillating trend for single - side trading and a wait - and - see approach for both arbitrage and options [7]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review - **Spot Prices**: On Friday, the aggregated price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,220 yuan (- 20 yuan), and in Beijing was 3,160 yuan (- 30 yuan). The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3,380 yuan (unchanged), and that of HBIS hot - rolled coils in Tianjin was 3,310 yuan (unchanged) [11]. - **Profits**: The flat - rate electricity profit of electric furnaces in East China was - 166 yuan (- 39 yuan), and the off - peak electricity profit was - 2 yuan (- 39 yuan) [29]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Important Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data - **US Data**: The unadjusted CPI annual rate in the US in August reached 2.9%, the highest since January, in line with market expectations. The seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate was 0.4%, higher than the expected 0.3%. The number of initial jobless claims in the week of September 6 was 263,000, higher than the expected 235,000 [31]. - **Chinese Data**: In August, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 1.995 million units, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. From January to August, the cumulative retail sales were 14.741 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%. In July, the new social financing was 1.13 trillion yuan, with new RMB loans of - 5 billion yuan. The loans on the household side were - 48.93 billion yuan, and enterprise loans were 60 trillion yuan. From January to July 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's fixed - asset investment was + 1.6%, with a decline in growth rate month - on - month [31][38]. - **Egyptian Data**: Egypt launched safeguard measure investigations on imported steel billets, cold - rolled coils, galvanized sheets, and pre - painted sheets on September 10, 2025, and made a positive preliminary ruling on imported hot - rolled coils on September 10, suggesting the collection of temporary safeguard measure taxes from September 14, 2025, to April 1, 2026 [31]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation 3.4.1 Supply - The daily average hot metal output of 247 blast furnaces was 2.4055 million tons (+ 0.1171 million tons), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 34.7% (- 0.5%) [56]. - The small - sample production of rebar was 2.1193 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0675 million tons, and that of hot - rolled coils was 3.2514 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.109 million tons [62]. 3.4.2 Demand - The small - sample apparent demand for rebar was 1.9807 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 million tons, and that for hot - rolled coils was 3.2616 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.208 million tons [65]. - As of September 9, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.24%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 percentage points. The capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 61.03%, a week - on - week increase of 0.02 percentage points, while that of housing construction projects was 50.75%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.64 percentage points [74]. - From January to July 2025, China's cumulative steel exports were 67.983 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.4%. In July, the steel exports were 9.836 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.158 million tons. The high - frequency data in August showed that direct steel exports remained high, but the export profit shrank recently [77]. 3.4.3 Inventory - The overall inventory situation showed that the rebar inventory continued to accumulate, while the hot - rolled coil inventory started to decline. The total rebar inventory and its breakdown into social and steel mill inventories, as well as the total hot - rolled coil inventory and its breakdown, are presented in the relevant graphs [82][84].

Core Viewpoint - Nucor, a leading steelmaker, has been included in Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio, indicating strong investor confidence and potential for growth in the steel and construction sectors [1][4]. Company Overview - Nucor is recognized as the largest and most diversified steel company in the U.S., producing approximately 25% of the country's raw steel [7][10]. - The company utilizes electric arc furnaces (EAFs), which are more energy-efficient and flexible compared to traditional steel-making methods [9]. Financial Performance - Nucor has a history of consistent profitability and strong free cash flow management, having increased its shareholder dividend for 52 consecutive years [10]. - As of June 30, Berkshire's stake in Nucor was valued at $857 million, highlighting the company's financial significance [4]. Strategic Initiatives - In 2024, Nucor established Nucor Data Systems (NDS) to support the booming data center infrastructure market, positioning itself as a key player in the construction of facilities essential for AI technology [11][12]. - Nucor's focus on modernizing its operations and adapting to market demands reflects its forward-thinking approach [12]. Market Context - The investment in Nucor aligns with broader trends in American infrastructure development, driven by governmental support for domestic manufacturing [6][7]. - Nucor's innovative practices and commitment to sustainability position it well for future growth in the steel industry [9][12].

Industry Overview - The North American steel sector is facing weak pricing and muted demand growth, leading to cautious investor sentiment due to a lack of clear catalysts [1] - Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) prices have decreased by 6% quarter-to-date, while scrap prices have remained stable, failing to alleviate margin pressures [2] - Real demand in the sector remains weak, and inventories are deemed adequate, prompting a cautious approach from buyers [4] Market Dynamics - Mills have gained market share from imports, supported by structural improvements in metal spreads compared to pre-pandemic and 2024 averages [3] - Utilization rates have risen above 79%, aided by a significant drop in imports, which fell by 16% month-over-month and 21% year-over-year in August, alongside a 2 million-ton increase in domestic shipments this year [3] Future Outlook - JP Morgan anticipates that the uncertain pricing environment, range-bound trading, and weak demand will persist through the fourth quarter [4] - Smaller fall outages compared to last year and rising production present additional challenges, with stronger growth potentially reliant on multiple rate cuts and clearer trade policies with Mexico and Canada, which are unlikely to materialize soon [5] Company Performance - JP Morgan models a 4% earnings decline for Nucor and a 6% decline for Steel Dynamics in the third quarter, citing weaker pricing and shipment risks [6] - Nucor's results are expected to remain resilient due to softer Brazilian pig iron tariffs, which may offset pressure on plate pricing [6] - Steel Dynamics is facing challenges from lingering coated inventory and ongoing losses at its aluminum rolling mill [6] Investment Ratings - JP Morgan maintains Neutral ratings for Steel Dynamics with a price forecast of $150, Cleveland-Cliffs at $10, and Commercial Metals Company at $54 [6] - Nucor is rated Overweight with a price forecast of $165, while Reliance Steel & Aluminum also holds an Overweight rating with a price forecast of $350 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union's aluminium sector is advocating for the imposition of approximately 30% duties on scrap metal exports to prevent domestic shortages and maintain competitiveness against Asian buyers [1][2][3]. Group 1: Export Trends and Economic Impact - EU aluminium scrap exports reached a record 1.26 million metric tons in 2024, marking a 50% increase compared to five years ago, with a significant portion directed towards Asia [1]. - The situation has deteriorated due to U.S. import tariffs, which are set at 50% for aluminium but only 15% for scrap, leading to increased scrap imports into the U.S. and a shift in focus for Asian buyers towards EU supplies [2]. Group 2: Policy and Industry Response - European Aluminium and Eurofer have engaged with the European Commission to advocate for an export levy, emphasizing the need for public policy to address market failures and protect Europe's strategic interests [3]. - The EU has begun monitoring scrap exports since July and plans to evaluate the necessity of action by the end of the third quarter [3]. Group 3: Recycling and Environmental Considerations - Scrap is crucial not only for domestic producers but also for the sector's decarbonization efforts, as recycling aluminium consumes 95% less energy than producing it from mined bauxite [4]. - European companies have invested €700 million (approximately $821 million) to enhance recycling furnace capacity to 12 million tons [4]. Group 4: Global Context and Domestic Challenges - Many non-EU countries, including India and China, already impose restrictions on metal scrap exports, highlighting a global trend towards limiting such exports [5]. - The recycling industry has pointed out that the rise in scrap exports is due to low domestic demand and inadequate capacity to process mixed scrap, such as that from shredded vehicles [6].

Iron ore headed for its third weekly gain as data showed steel mill activity resumed rapidly after China’s military parade and supplies from a major export hub slowed. https://t.co/Cy7lFSAaFR ...

Group 1 - Worthington Steel (NYSE: WS) will host a webcast to discuss its First Quarter 2026 results [1] - The webcast is scheduled for September 25 at 8:30 a.m. ET [1]

Market Overview - The market has experienced a steady upward trend, characterized by incremental highs without significant volatility, resembling a "melt-up" approach [1] - September is historically known for being a weaker month for market performance, raising questions about sustaining momentum [2] Sector Performance - The S&P 500 has reached new highs, with leadership primarily from the banking, discretionary, and industrial sectors [3] - There are signs of a potential global growth reacceleration, indicated by the breakout of copper prices and strengthening of commodity currencies like the Australian and Canadian dollars [4] Investment Sentiment - The material sector's performance is still relatively small within the S&P 500, suggesting that the consensus on global growth is not yet fully embraced [5] - Concerns arise regarding the Federal Reserve's potential actions in response to global growth, which could impact interest rates and the dollar [6] Key Opportunities - There is renewed interest in copper stocks, with companies like Freeport and Rio Tinto showing positive momentum [7] - The resurgence in materials and commodities is not negatively impacting consumer discretionary spending, which remains strong [8] - Power stocks, including CEG and Vistra, are regaining traction after a period of stagnation, indicating a potential recovery in the sector [9][10]

Company Overview - POSCO Holdings is a South Korean company primarily engaged in the production of steel products and is the world's 7th largest steelmaker [1] - The company operates through four business divisions: Steel Sector, Infrastructure, Energy Materials, and Others [1] Analyst Insights - The analysis focuses on fixed income and commodities, with occasional stock picking [1] - The investment horizon is typically medium to long-term, while also paying attention to short-term price movements [1] - The analysis is value-driven and contrarian, targeting mispriced assets [1]

Company Overview - POSCO Holdings is a South Korean company primarily engaged in the production of steel products and is the world's 7th largest steelmaker [1] - The company operates through four business divisions: Steel Sector, Infrastructure, Energy Materials, and Others [1] Analyst Focus - The analysis specializes in fixed income and commodities, with occasional stock picking [1] - The investment horizon is typically medium to long-term, while also paying attention to short-term price movements [1] - The analysis is value-driven and contrarian, focusing on mispriced assets [1]

Core Viewpoint - Posco (PKX) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating a positive outlook driven by rising earnings estimates, which significantly influence stock prices [1][3]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Price Impact - The Zacks rating system focuses on changes in earnings estimates as a key determinant of stock price movements, with empirical evidence showing a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price changes [4][6]. - Institutional investors often react to changes in earnings estimates, leading to significant buying or selling activity that impacts stock prices [4]. Posco's Earnings Outlook - For the fiscal year ending December 2025, Posco is expected to earn $3.96 per share, which remains unchanged from the previous year, but the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased by 2.9% over the past three months, reflecting a positive trend in earnings estimates [8][5]. Zacks Rating System - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with a proven track record of generating substantial returns, particularly for Zacks Rank 1 stocks, which have averaged a +25% annual return since 1988 [7]. - Posco's upgrade to Zacks Rank 2 places it in the top 20% of Zacks-covered stocks, indicating strong potential for market-beating returns in the near term due to favorable earnings estimate revisions [10][9].