Sweden's central bank reduced its key policy rate to 1.75% and suggested the cut could mark the final monetary easing of the current cycle. ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is navigating a complex landscape of employment data, inflation pressures, and political influences as it considers future interest rate decisions [1][3][10]. Employment Data and the Fed - The Fed's focus on employment data is shifting due to slowed immigration under the current administration, which limits job growth potential [4][5]. - The variability in job growth data complicates economic analysis, as recent employment gains may not reflect true economic conditions without understanding immigration trends [5][6]. Inflation Data and the Fed - The Fed is closely monitoring inflation data, which is influenced by both underlying inflationary pressures and tariffs, making it challenging to determine the appropriate policy response [9]. - Recent inflation trends have raised questions about whether changes are temporary or indicative of a longer-term trend, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [9]. Politics and the Fed's Policies - Political pressures, particularly from President Trump, are influencing the Fed's interest rate decisions, with potential implications for the independence of the institution [11][15]. - The structure of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) allows for political influence, especially if the president appoints members aligned with his agenda [12][15]. Future Interest Rate Decisions - The Fed is likely to continue small interest rate cuts into 2025 and 2026, influenced by recent employment weaknesses and political dynamics [16][17]. - The balance between maintaining the Fed's independence and responding to political pressures will be a critical factor in future interest rate decisions [17].

I'm not attempting to provide an impossible degree of precision, but a general ballpark. Based on this analysis, I believe the appropriate Fed funds rate is in the mid 2% area, almost two percentage points lower than current policy. The Federal Reserve has been entrusted with the important goal of promoting price stability for the good of all American households and businesses.And I am committed to bringing inflation sustainably back to 2%. However, leading policy restrictive by such a large degree brings s ...

Core Viewpoint - Stephen Miran, a new appointee to the Federal Reserve's interest-rate-setting board, advocates for more aggressive interest rate cuts, suggesting rates should be below 3% by year-end [2][6]. Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates by a quarter point, bringing them to a range of 4% to 4.25%, the lowest since early 2023. Miran was the only voting member to oppose this decision, advocating for a half-point cut instead [1]. Economic Analysis - Miran believes that concerns over inflation due to tariffs are overstated, arguing that small price changes in certain goods do not warrant significant worry. He predicts that exporters will lower prices, and he expects a cooling in the housing market due to a declining population influenced by immigration policies [2][4]. - In contrast, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledges that higher tariffs have begun to increase prices in some categories, but the overall impact on economic activity and inflation remains uncertain [3]. Inflation Targeting - The Federal Reserve has maintained a target inflation rate of 2%, which has not been achieved since 2021. Miran views this target as overly restrictive and believes that precise inflation targets can lead to excessive micromanagement [5][6]. Role and Influence - Miran is positioned as an economic advocate for Trump within the Fed, being the first governor to serve on the board while also holding a role in the executive branch in nearly a century. He is currently on leave from his role as chair of Trump's Council of Economic Advisers [6]. - Miran emphasizes his independence in decision-making, stating that he will not conform to consensus for its own sake and will vote according to his beliefs [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to maintain its policy rate at zero through 2026 due to stable inflation and a steady currency, as indicated by a majority of economists in a recent Reuters poll [1][3][6]. Interest Rate Outlook - The SNB currently has the lowest interest rate among major central banks, and while inflation is gradually increasing, it remains low, making it unlikely for rates to go negative again [2][3]. - A significant majority of economists (over 80%) anticipate that rates will remain unchanged for the rest of the year, with 21 out of 25 predicting the rate will still be at 0.00% by the end of 2026 [6]. Economic Indicators - Inflation in Switzerland was recorded at 0.2% last month, well within the SNB's target range of 0%-2%, and is expected to average 0.2% for the year and 0.6% in 2026 [5][6]. - The Swiss franc has appreciated only 0.4% against the euro since the beginning of the year and is projected to depreciate by more than 2% over the next 12 months [5]. Central Bank Strategy - SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel has expressed concerns about the "undesirable side effects" of negative rates, suggesting a preference for maintaining the current rate [3]. - The SNB retains the option to intervene in the foreign currency market to manage any significant appreciation of the Swiss franc, which is viewed as a more favorable strategy than introducing negative rates [7].

9月17日，当美联储降息的钟声敲响，市场看到的不仅是利率数字的变动，更是一道正在裂开的制度体 系。美联储用25个基点的谨慎调整维持着专业理性的表象，但美联储新任理事米兰的仓促入局与美国总 统特朗普的持续施压，已将这次货币政策的调整变成了对央行独立性的压力测试。在数据的合法性与政 治的渗透力之间，美联储正经历着一场前所未有的信任危机。 经济理性的支撑 不能否认，美联储此举有其坚实的经济逻辑。最新经济数据显示，美国经济增速正呈现温和放缓态势。 摩根士丹利首席经济学家塞思•卡彭特预测，受关税政策滞后效应影响，今年第四季度至明年一季度， 美国经济增长将进一步疲软。2026年，美国经济增速可能跌至1.25%，远低于2024年的2.8%。就业市场 的冷却尤为刺眼。8月，非农新增就业仅2.2万人，失业率升至4.3%，其中少数族裔失业率上升已引发决 策层的警觉。这些信号无不预示着美国经济下行风险在加大。 更深层的危机在于，政治干预已趋于常态化。随着2026年美国中期大选的临近，特朗普对宽松货币政策 的要求只会变本加厉。鲍威尔已暗示可能不再连任，美联储未来一年将进入权力更替期。这意味着，美 联储的独立性将在最敏感的时间窗口遭遇 ...

A feud over the Fed. The Trump administration now turning to the nation's highest court, asking the Supreme Court to allow President Trump's firing of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. The emergency request comes after a Federal Appeals Court in Washington DC rejected the administration's bid to lift an order stopping President Trump from removing Cook from her position over accusations of mortgage fraud.In the meantime, the White House refuses u pardon me, continues to push for bigger rate cuts. Here's s ...

Group 1 - The Director of the National Economic Council, Kevin Hasset, endorsed the Federal Reserve's decision to implement a 25 basis point cut, indicating a preference for a more conservative approach rather than additional cuts [1] - The discussion highlights the importance of independent analysis in monetary policy decisions, emphasizing that personal views from advisors should not dictate policy [1] - There is ongoing debate regarding the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and its implications for mortgage rates and housing markets [1] Group 2 - The size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet is viewed as a symptom of underlying regulatory frameworks rather than a target in itself, suggesting that regulatory considerations should guide balance sheet size [2] - The appropriate size of the balance sheet is linked to the need for sufficient reserves in the banking system to prevent liquidity issues and ensure bank capitalization [2] - The focus should shift upstream to the regulatory system to determine the right balance sheet size, rather than concentrating solely on the balance sheet itself [2]

Group 1 - Mexico's central bank, Banxico, is expected to lower its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 7.50% on September 25, marking the eleventh cut in a steady easing cycle due to weak economic conditions [1][2][3] - Economists are more concerned about the slow domestic economy than consumer price trends, with all 24 surveyed predicting the rate cut [2][3] - Recent economic data indicates a deceleration in growth and moderated inflation, supporting the decision for a rate cut [3][4] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that Banxico will continue to cut rates below market expectations as long as the U.S. Federal Reserve cuts rates and the U.S. dollar remains weak [5] - A majority of economists anticipate another 25 basis-point cut in November, following the September adjustment, as Banxico does not meet in October [5][6] - Projections indicate Mexico's interest rate could fall to 7.00% by the end of 2025, with further reductions expected in early 2026 [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - Sweden's central bank is anticipated to maintain its policy rate, with analysts split on expectations for a potential cut [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Policy Rate Expectations** - Analysts are nearly evenly divided on whether the central bank will keep the rate at 2.00% or reduce it to 1.75% [1]