美国现任总统居然直接对美联储下手了——要知道，美联储一直打着"独立"的招牌，结果这次总统直接把已经过参议院确认、任期明文规定14年的理 事丽莎·库克给免了。这可不是简单调个岗，翻遍美联储111年的历史，这种事还是头一遭。 美媒怎么看？就一句话，特别扎心："这一天，对央行来说是黑暗的一天，直接动摇了美元的根基。"这话听着像情绪化的感叹，可背后却是全球金融 系统实实在在的"脆响"。 事情得从8月25号说起，特朗普在自己的社交平台上发消息，说库克涉嫌"房贷欺诈"，直接把她免职了。才过两天，美国国债市场就有了反应，不同期 限的收益率差一下子拉开了——2年期的往下走，30年期的往上冲，差距到了三年来的最高点。这可不是哪个交易员手滑按错了键，而是市场在用价 格"说话"：短期看，大家觉得后面可能会因为政治因素搞降息；长期看，通胀风险和制度风险都得算进去。 要知道，美联储理事的任期保护和免职门槛都是写在法律里的，目的就是让货币政策尽量别受选举节奏和政治情绪的影响。要是这道"防火墙"被踩塌 了，后面就不是个案了，整套宏观政策的可信度都会跟着往下掉。 为啥市场对一个人事变动反应这么快？答案其实特简单：钱最怕"没谱"。美债长期收益 ...

Group 1 - The recent pressure from President Trump on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates echoes historical interventions, particularly during Nixon's presidency, which led to unexpected outcomes in monetary policy [3][4] - The current global monetary system differs from Nixon's era, but historical experiences can still provide insights into market trends [3] - The actions of Trump, including the dismissal of Federal Reserve officials, raise concerns about the independence of the central bank and the potential for overly accommodative monetary policy, which could increase long-term inflation expectations [4] Group 2 - The concept of "institutional clustering" in the A-share market is often misunderstood; it is not merely about the number of institutions buying but rather about the operational model of trading [4] - The performance of stocks like "Shutai Shen" and "Kunyuan Group" illustrates the impact of institutional support, with "Shutai Shen" showing significant institutional backing while "Kunyuan Group" lacks sustained support [7][10] - Quantitative data analysis reveals that institutional trading behaviors can be identified and leveraged, allowing for better investment decisions based on the activity levels of institutional investors [8][10] Group 3 - Historical lessons suggest that if the independence of the Federal Reserve is compromised, it may lead to short-term benefits but could ultimately result in uncontrolled inflation and rising interest rates, similar to the Nixon era [13] - The current market dynamics, influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts, have led to a nearly 10% decline in the dollar index this year, while the yield curve for U.S. Treasuries has steepened, indicating potential increases in long-term yields [13][14] - The essence of market behavior remains unchanged despite evolving circumstances; understanding human nature and capital dynamics is crucial for long-term investment success [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant rise in gold prices due to political events, specifically President Trump's unprecedented dismissal of a Federal Reserve board member, which raised concerns about the independence of the Fed and increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1] - On December 26, 2025, the most actively traded gold futures price rose by $32.5, closing at $3443.2 per ounce, marking a 0.95% increase, with an intraday high of $3443.3, the highest since August 12 [1] - Market analysts suggest that Trump's direct intervention in the Federal Reserve and the government's direct investments in private enterprises could severely impact the economic system [1] Group 2 - Reports indicate that India may lift restrictions on pension funds investing in gold ETFs, which is expected to stimulate demand for gold investments [1] - On the same day, silver futures for December delivery increased by 16 cents, closing at $39.210 per ounce, reflecting a 0.41% rise [1] - The U.S. durable goods orders for July were reported at a month-on-month rate of -2.8%, slightly better than the expected -4% [1]

新华财经纽约8月26日电（记者徐静） 纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年12月黄金期价 26日上涨32.5美元，收于每盎司3443.2美元，涨幅为0.95%。 盘中，纽约金价一度触及3443.3美元，为8月12日以来的最高。 美国总统特朗普25日宣布解雇美联储理事库克。这一"史无前例"的举动被视为对美联储独立性的严重挑 战，引发市场对政治干预货币政策的担忧，进而导致市场动荡并提振避险需求。在此背景下，金价不仅 逆转亚洲交易时段开盘时的回落态势，并在其后时段震荡上扬，最终在临近收盘时创下两周新高。 此外，有报道称，印度或将取消养老金投资黄金ETF的限制。此举也被认为将刺激黄金投资需求。 数据方面，26日公布的美国7月耐用品订单月率录得-2.8%，略好于预期的-4%。 当天12月交割的白银期货价格上涨16美分，收于每盎司39.210美元，涨幅为0.41%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 市场分析人士认为，特朗普对美联储最高层的直接干预，以及其政府对私营企业的直接投资，都将对经 济体系造成严重冲击。 ...

当特朗普的手掌重重拍在鲍威尔后背时，埃克尔斯大楼内的空气仿佛瞬间凝固。 当地时间 7 月 24 日，这段被镜头全程记录的 "政治真人秀" 迅速引爆全球舆论 —— 美国总统在美联储总部的公开场合，用近乎命令的口吻要求美联储主席 降息。 现场视频里，特朗普的手掌落下时，鲍威尔身体微倾的弧度、嘴角那抹略显僵硬的微笑，成了解读美国政治与经济博弈的最佳注脚。 这场看似偶然的肢体接触，实则是总统与央行之间 "权力拉锯战" 的公开上演，背后藏着关乎美国经济走向与制度底线的深层较量。 一、现场还原：一场被镜头定格的 "权力试探" 埃克尔斯大楼的大理石地面反射着顶灯的冷光，美联储总部的庄重氛围本该属于货币政策的理性讨论，却被特朗普突如其来的 "肢体语言" 打破了平衡。 当天特朗普身着深色西装，在一众记者和官员的簇拥下走进会议室，原本应按流程听取美联储关于经济形势的汇报，却在落座前突然转向站在一旁的鲍威 尔。 "我希望他降低利率。" 特朗普的声音透过麦克风传遍全场，与此同时，他的右手重重拍在鲍威尔的后背 —— 这个在社交礼仪中略显逾矩的动作，被现场十几台摄像机精准捕捉。 慢放视频可见，鲍威尔在接触瞬间身体明显前倾，右手下意识地扶 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rumor of Trump firing Powell caused significant market volatility within an hour, highlighting the potential financial impact of political interference on the Federal Reserve's independence [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Following the rumor, market risk aversion surged, leading to declines in U.S. stocks and the dollar, while assets like gold and Bitcoin rose [1]. - During the hour of speculation, the probability of Powell being dismissed increased by approximately 15 percentage points, nearing a peak of 40% [2]. - Deutsche Bank's analysis suggested that if the probability of dismissal reached near 100%, the market impact could be four times greater than the initial reaction [2]. Group 2: Legal and Structural Vulnerabilities - The market's reaction was partly due to investors recognizing the legal pathways for political intervention, as the President can fill vacancies on the Federal Reserve Board without Senate approval during recess [3]. - The U.S. economy's structural weaknesses, including significant twin deficits and negative international investment positions, amplify the risks of capital outflows and dollar depreciation if investor confidence is shaken [3]. Group 3: Future Implications - The ultimate impact of such political events will depend on the Federal Reserve's internal unity and the broader macroeconomic context [4]. - If inflation remains moderate and close to the Fed's 2% target, conflicts between the White House's push for rate cuts and the Fed's policy objectives may lessen, potentially stabilizing market reactions [4]. - Conversely, if high inflation persists while political pressure mounts for monetary policy changes, it could lead to severe financial turmoil [4].

1971年，尼克松总统施压美联储主席伯恩斯降息150个基点，最终引爆美国大通胀；2024年，历史似乎 正在重演——特朗普公开宣称"鲍威尔越快下台越好"，并密谋安插心腹执掌美联储。这场政治与央行的 权力博弈，正在将全球投资者推向十字路口。 美联储独立性是市场稳定基石，这一原则自1951年《财政部-美联储协议》确立以来从未被彻底破坏。 无论人事如何变动，保持组合流动性、坚持分散配置才是穿越风暴的终极法则。正如投资大师格雷厄姆 所言："市场短期是投票机，长期是称重机。"在政治博弈的迷雾中，唯有坚守价值锚点方能行稳致远。 库格勒任期引发的长期不确定性更需关注。若特朗普连任，2026年前将彻底改组美联储理事会，政策反 复性可能创下冷战结束以来新高。投资者需特别关注五年期以上资产定价扭曲风险，这种不确定性上一 次出现还要追溯到1979年沃尔克上任前夕。 历史轮回：政治干预货币政策的三大教训 回溯半个世纪的历史，政治干预货币政策总会引发三重灾难：短期市场扭曲（如1971年黄金窗口关 闭）、中长期通胀失控（1980年CPI飙至13.5%）、政策信誉崩塌（伯恩斯声誉尽毁）。当前特朗普施 压降息的行为，与尼克松1972年大选前的 ...