近期随着美国这场历时最长的政府 "停摆"结束，超过40日的"关门"对经济带来的冲击将得到更为明确的衡量，市场焦点重新回到 美联储货币政策路径以及关税对通胀的影响方面。前期在美联储即将结束缩表及"鸽派"官员支持12月进一步降息的情况下，国际 金价得到提振走强，自4000美元／盎司下方回到4200美元／盎司以上高位，但上周末由于美联储鹰派官员表态打压12月降息预 期，金价当周涨幅迅速收窄，回调至4100美元／盎司下方，国内金价则相对抗跌。 地缘局势方面，目前全球地缘冲突频发，使市场避险情绪难以消退。 尽管宏观因素影响增大，但黄金投资等需求强劲仍支撑价格。据世界黄金协会统计，2025年三季度全球黄金总需求为1258吨，比 二季度回升16%，同比增长7%，黄金价格在4—8月盘整之后再度迎来上涨，各个领域的需求均有所增加，特别是ETF和央行购金 需求比二季度显著上升，首饰需求亦脱离2020年以来新低而出现回升。ETF需求方面，10月在金价大幅拉升后回落的背景下，全 球黄金ETF持仓整体维持净流入。其中，北美地区流入规模最大，达到47吨，亚洲地区增持45吨，但欧洲地区净流出37.4吨。在 美联储宽松货币政策及美国政府"关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The GBP/USD exchange rate is currently under pressure due to internal economic challenges in the UK and a weaker USD, trading around 1.3161. The combination of economic weaknesses and fiscal uncertainties in the UK limits the potential for a rebound against the USD, resulting in a range-bound trading scenario with support below and resistance above [1]. Economic Fundamentals - The UK economy faces multiple concerns, including a downgrade in productivity forecasts by the Office for Budget Responsibility and inflation data falling short of expectations, indicating insufficient recovery momentum and low business investment willingness [1]. - A fiscal gap of £20 billion highlights the government's dilemma between increasing spending to support growth and controlling debt risks, raising market concerns about the sustainability of UK fiscal policy, which has become a significant factor in GBP selling pressure [1]. Monetary Policy - The Bank of England maintains high interest rates to curb inflation; however, the risk of economic downturn leads to market expectations that rate cuts may occur sooner than those by the Federal Reserve, narrowing the interest rate differential and diminishing the attractiveness of the GBP [1]. Technical Analysis - The GBP/USD is oscillating within the 1.3080-1.3220 range, with the 30-day moving average around 1.3100 indicating a stalemate between bulls and bears. Key support is at 1.3080, with potential declines to 1.3000 and 1.2950 if broken, while resistance is focused at 1.3220, with a breakthrough potentially leading to levels of 1.3300-1.3350 [2]. - Indicators show a narrowing of MACD green bars and a KDJ crossover, suggesting reduced bearish momentum but limited rebound potential. Upcoming economic data from both the UK and the US will be crucial for determining the direction of the GBP [2].

Core Insights - The report from ICBC Asia Research analyzes the impact of the US "reciprocal tariff" policy on the economy, focusing on inflation, supply chains, economic data, and policy outlook, while outlining economic signals and future trends in the US economy [1][2] Inflation and Price Transmission - As of August, the PPI decreased to 2.6% year-on-year, while the CPI increased to 2.9%, indicating a clearer transmission of inflation effects from tariffs [2][12] - The core goods contributed a 0.4% increase to the CPI, with furniture and transportation products leading the price hikes [2][12] - The inflationary impact is expected to become more pronounced in the fourth quarter as inventory buffers are depleted and companies gradually pass on costs [2][12] Economic Data and Trends - Economic resilience was supported by non-residential investment and consumer behavior, with GDP growth exceeding 1.5% in Q1 and Q2 when excluding tariff disruptions [2][19] - However, there are increasing downward risks as tariff effects become evident, potentially leading to reduced production and consumption [2][19] Policy and Financial Market Outlook - The Federal Reserve is likely to implement interest rate cuts in September, facing challenges from economic downturns, high inflation, and policy pressures [2][6] - The US dollar index is expected to trend downward, while the yield curve for US Treasury bonds will exhibit a "bull steepening" characteristic due to conflicting economic signals [2][6] Supply Chain and Inventory Dynamics - Tariff expectations have heightened inventory motivations across supply chains, leading to a temporary "prosperity illusion" in supply-side data [6][19] - Increased imports and production of durable goods have somewhat mitigated the impact of tariffs on end prices, with durable goods shipments rising by 3.1% in the first seven months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [2][33] Consumer Behavior and Confidence - Consumer confidence has declined, with rising concerns about price increases leading to preemptive stockpiling of goods [2][26] - Retail sales in categories such as motor vehicles and furniture have shown significant growth, reflecting consumer behavior in response to tariff expectations [2][27]

Core Insights - The core PCE price index for the U.S. in August remained steady at an annual rate of 2.9%, with a monthly rate also unchanged at 0.2% [2] - The overall PCE price index annual rate increased slightly from 2.6% to 2.7%, while the monthly rate rose from 0.2% to 0.3% [2] - The latest PCE and core PCE data indicate that the risk of inflation rebound in the U.S. economy is not as severe as previously feared, suggesting that the primary concern is the risk of economic downturn rather than inflation [2] Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to focus more on the employment market rather than inflation when making monetary policy decisions based on the recent economic data [2] - Future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are anticipated, although the extent and pace of these cuts will be cautious [2] - Despite showing resilience, the U.S. economy exhibits signs of fatigue in the manufacturing and employment sectors, leading to ongoing concerns about the economic outlook [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Mexico has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 7.50%, marking the eleventh rate cut since the start of the easing cycle in early 2024, aimed at addressing a weak economic environment [1][7]. Economic Outlook - A survey of 24 economists indicated expectations for the Bank of Mexico to reduce the key rate to 7.50% during the September 25 meeting, with projections suggesting a further decline to 7.00% by the end of 2024 and additional cuts in 2025 [3]. - The Bank of Mexico anticipates a slowdown in global economic activity in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter, influenced by ongoing trade tensions and a deceleration in both global and U.S. economies [3][4]. Inflation Trends - The overall inflation rate in Mexico rose from 3.51% to 3.74% between July and mid-September, while core inflation slightly increased from 4.23% to 4.26% [4]. - The Bank of Mexico has adjusted its overall inflation forecast, expecting it to reach the target level of 3% by the third quarter of 2026, despite a slight upward revision in core inflation predictions [4][7]. Monetary Policy Considerations - The decision to lower the benchmark rate was influenced by the assessment of current inflation conditions, exchange rate trends, and the impact of global trade policy changes [7]. - The Bank of Mexico's board will continue to evaluate the possibility of further rate cuts, ensuring alignment with the goal of achieving a sustainable convergence of overall inflation to the target [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Mexico has lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 7.50%, marking the eleventh rate cut since the beginning of the easing cycle initiated in early 2024 to address a weak economic environment [2][9]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decision - On September 25, the Bank of Mexico's board decided to reduce the overnight interbank rate target by 25 basis points to 7.50% [9]. - A Reuters survey indicated that all 24 economists polled expected this rate cut [5]. Economic Outlook - The median forecast suggests that the benchmark rate may drop to 7.00% by the end of this year, with further reductions anticipated in early 2026 [6]. - The Bank of Mexico expects global economic activity to expand at a slower pace in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter, influenced by ongoing trade tensions [6]. Inflation Trends - From July to mid-September, the overall inflation rate increased from 3.51% to 3.74%, while core inflation slightly rose from 4.23% to 4.26% [7]. - The Bank of Mexico anticipates that overall inflation will reach the target level by the third quarter of 2026, despite upward risks to inflation forecasts [7]. Monetary Policy Considerations - The board believes that continuing to lower the benchmark rate is appropriate given the current inflation situation, economic activity weakness, and potential impacts from global trade policy changes [9]. - Future rate cuts will be evaluated based on all inflation-related factors, ensuring alignment with the goal of achieving a 3% inflation target [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is not just a numerical adjustment but a significant test of the central bank's independence amid political pressures, particularly from President Trump [1][4][7]. Economic Rationality Support - The Federal Reserve's decision is backed by solid economic logic, as recent data indicates a moderate slowdown in the U.S. economy, with predictions of further weakening in growth rates [2][3]. - Non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs in August, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, highlighting increasing economic risks [2]. - The Fed's inflation forecast remains at a median of 3% for the end of the year, significantly above the 2% target, driven mainly by supply-side factors rather than demand-pull inflation [2]. Political Pressure Penetration - President Trump has openly criticized the Federal Reserve and taken actions to influence monetary policy, including appointing Stephen Milan, who aligns closely with Trump's demands for aggressive rate cuts [4][5]. - Milan's dual role in the White House and the Fed raises concerns about the independence of the central bank, as he voted against the Fed's decision shortly after taking office [5]. Independence Boundaries - Despite political pressures, the Fed maintains rational judgments regarding inflation and employment, indicating a struggle to uphold its independence [6]. - The recent rate cut reflects a compromise between economic rationality and political demands, suggesting a normalization of political intervention in monetary policy [7].

Group 1 - The Bank of England has decided to maintain the current interest rate level, reflecting its policy dilemma between a weak labor market and persistent inflation pressures [1] - Early initiation of a rate-cutting cycle could further elevate inflation expectations, while maintaining high rates for an extended period may suppress consumption and investment, increasing economic downturn risks [1] - For ordinary investors, this policy stance suggests that interest rates on savings products may remain stable in the short term, but mortgage rates will stay high, making repayment pressures difficult to alleviate [1] Group 2 - The GBP/USD exchange rate shifted from an upward trend to a downward trend, with the "Evening Star" pattern prompting a drop below 1.3500, increasing the likelihood of testing the convergence of the 100-day and 50-day moving averages around 1.3477/63 [2] - A daily closing price below this convergence would clear the path for testing the low of 1.3332 from September 3, while a closing price above 1.3600 could reinforce the rationale for challenging the annual peak of 1.3788 [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range from 4.25%-4.50% to 4.0%-4.25% [1] - The Fed's statement highlighted a slowdown in economic activity growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains at historically low levels [1] - The Fed aims to achieve full employment and maintain a long-term inflation rate of 2%, while acknowledging high uncertainty in the current economic outlook [2] Group 2 - The decision to lower interest rates was influenced by increased downside risks in the labor market, which were a significant consideration for the policy adjustment [1] - The Fed will continue to monitor a wide range of economic indicators, including labor market conditions and inflation pressures, to guide future monetary policy adjustments [2] - The recent rate cut was viewed by the market as a preemptive measure against weakening economic momentum, despite inflation remaining above target [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range from 4.25%-4.50% to 4.0%-4.25% [1][2] - The Fed's statement highlighted a slowdown in economic activity growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains at historically low levels [1][2] - The Fed aims to achieve full employment and maintain a long-term inflation rate of 2%, while acknowledging high uncertainty in the current economic outlook [1][2] Group 2 - The decision to lower interest rates was influenced by increased downside risks in the labor market, which were a significant consideration for the policy adjustment [1][2] - The Fed will continue to monitor a wide range of economic indicators, including labor market conditions and inflation pressures, to guide future monetary policy adjustments [2] - The recent rate cut was passed with a vote of 8 in favor and 1 against, reflecting a consensus on the need to address potential growth risks despite ongoing inflation concerns [2]