The market’s focus this week will be on US economic news. On Friday, Dec nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by +70,000, and the Dec unemployment rate is expected to slip by -0.1 to 4.5%. Also, Dec average hourly earnings are expected to be up by 0.3% m/m and 3.6% y/y. In addition, Oct housing starts are expected to increase by 1.8% m/m to 1.33 million, and Oct building permits are expected to rise by 1.5% m/m to 1.35 million. Finally, the University of Michigan's Jan consumer sentiment index is expec ...

The ADP National Employment report released on Wednesday showed that U.S. private nonfarm payrolls rose by +41K in December, weaker than expectations of +49K. Also, the U.S. JOLTs job openings fell to a 14-month low of 7.146 million in November, weaker than expectations of 7.610 million. In addition, U.S. October factory orders fell -1.3% m/m, weaker than expectations of -1.1% m/m. At the same time, the U.S. ISM services index unexpectedly rose to 54.4 in December, stronger than expectations of 52.2.In yest ...

Economic Indicators - Q3 nonfarm productivity is expected to increase by +4.7%, while unit labor costs are projected to rise by +0.3% [1] - Initial weekly unemployment claims are anticipated to rise by 12,000 to 211,000 [1] - December nonfarm payrolls are expected to grow by +59,000, with the unemployment rate projected to decrease by -0.1 to 4.5% [1] - Average hourly earnings for December are expected to increase by +0.3% month-over-month and +3.6% year-over-year [1] - October housing starts are expected to rise by +1.4% month-over-month to 1.325 million, and building permits are expected to increase by +1.1% month-over-month to 1.350 million [1] - The University of Michigan's January consumer sentiment index is expected to rise by 0.6 points to 53.5 [1] Labor Market - November JOLTS job openings fell by -303,000 to a 14-month low of 7.146 million, below expectations of 7.648 million [2] - December ADP employment change increased by +41,000, which is weaker than the expected +50,000 [2] - MBA mortgage applications rose by +0.3% in the week ending January 2, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down -6.2% and the refinancing sub-index up +7.4% [2] Stock Market Performance - Stock indexes are mostly higher, with the S&P 500 reaching a new all-time high and the Nasdaq 100 hitting a 3.5-week high [5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell from a record high due to mixed economic news [5] - The 10-year T-note yield decreased by -2 bp to 4.15% [5] Sector Performance - Cybersecurity stocks are performing well, with Crowdstrike Holdings up more than +4% and Palo Alto Networks up more than +3% [13] - Chip makers and data storage companies are under pressure, with Western Digital down more than -7% [11] - Mining stocks are declining, with silver down more than -5% and copper down more than -3% [12] International Markets - Overseas stock markets are mixed, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down by -0.16% and China's Shanghai Composite up by +0.05% [7] - European government bond yields are decreasing, with the 10-year German bund yield dropping to a 1-month low of 2.792% [9]

Economic Outlook - Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin indicated a "delicate balance" in monetary policy due to rising unemployment and elevated inflation [1] - Fed Governor Stephen Miran suggested that interest rates need to be lowered by more than a percentage point this year, claiming current monetary policy is "holding the economy back" [1] - The U.S. December S&P Global services PMI was revised down to 52.5 from 52.9 [1] Stock Market Performance - Wall Street's major indexes closed higher, with the S&P 500 and Dow reaching record highs [2] - Data storage companies saw significant gains, with Sandisk (SNDK) rising over 27% and Western Digital (WDC) climbing more than 16% [2] - Microchip Technology (MCHP) surged over 11% after raising its Q3 revenue guidance [2] - OneStream (OS) soared over 28% following a buyout agreement with Hg Capital for approximately $6.4 billion [2] - American International Group (AIG) fell more than 7% after announcing CEO Peter Zaffino's retirement [2] Oil Market - Oil prices declined after President Trump announced that Venezuela would turn over 30 million to 50 million barrels of crude to the U.S., contributing to an oversupplied market [3] Futures and Economic Data - March S&P 500 E-Mini futures were trending down 0.12% ahead of U.S. jobs data [4] - U.S. rate futures indicated an 83.9% chance of no rate change and a 16.1% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the January FOMC meeting [4] Employment Reports - The U.S. ADP private payrolls report is anticipated, with economists forecasting a December Nonfarm Employment Change of 49K, compared to November's -32K [5] - The November JOLTs Job Openings are expected to be 7.610 million, slightly down from October's 7.670 million [5] Manufacturing and Services Data - The U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to be 52.2 for December, down from the previous value of 52.6 [6] - Factory Orders data for October is anticipated to drop 1.1% month-over-month, following a 0.2% rise in September [6] Crude Oil Inventories - The EIA's weekly crude oil inventories report is expected to show a decrease of 1.2 million barrels, compared to last week's decrease of 1.9 million barrels [7] Earnings Reports - Companies such as Constellation Brands (STZ), Jefferies Financial (JEF), and Applied Digital (APLD) are set to report quarterly figures [8] European Market Insights - The Euro Stoxx 50 Index fell 0.12% as energy stocks declined following a drop in oil prices [9] - Eurozone's annual inflation rate fell to the European Central Bank's target in December, suggesting stable monetary policy [10] - Germany's unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.3% in December, with jobless numbers slightly increasing [10] Asian Market Developments - China's Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly higher, supported by increased trading volumes [13] - Semiconductor stocks outperformed, with analysts predicting significant gains for the MSCI China Index and CSI 300 Index in 2026 [13] - Japan's Nikkei 225 Index closed lower as investors took profits after a recent rally [14]

Market Sentiment and Trends - Early January trading highlights how quickly emotions can influence market movements, with a warning against confusing momentum with durability [1] - Momentum traders are currently focusing on data storage stocks due to increased demand from artificial intelligence, leading to significant price surges [3] Sector Performance - Oil stocks have recently experienced losses, particularly following political upheaval in Venezuela, illustrating the risks of emotional trading [2] - Bank stocks are benefiting from loosening regulations and a rebound in deal-making, with notable strength in Goldman Sachs, Capital One, and Citigroup [4] Investment Opportunities - Turnaround plays such as Nike and Starbucks are being highlighted, with insider buying at Nike indicating confidence in recovery [4] - "Mistaken identity stocks," particularly Amazon, are seen as offering the best risk-reward profile at the start of the year, despite recent underperformance [5]

Core Insights - The S&P 500 Index (SPX) achieved a 16.4% gain in 2025, ranking among the top seven annualized returns over the past 20 years, driven by outperforming tech stocks benefiting from the artificial intelligence boom [2] Company Performance - Western Digital (WDC) achieved a remarkable 283% return in 2025, outperforming competitors like Micron Technology (MU) at 239% and Seagate Technology (STX) at 219% [3] - WDC's stock performance was characterized by a total of 31.7% post-earnings returns across four earnings reports in 2025, with only five weekly losses after April [4] - The stock reached a record high of $188.77 on December 11 but struggled to surpass $189 despite multiple attempts [5] Options Trading Insights - WDC was noted for having the highest average straddle return in 2025 at 101.1%, with a positive return 74% of the time, indicating strong performance in options trading [9][10] - Seagate Technology (STX) also performed well in straddle returns, averaging 67.3% with a positive return 57% of the time [9][10] Industry Outlook - Analysts suggest that data storage companies will continue to benefit from the ongoing demand for AI, even as investors shift away from hyperscalers [11] - The current market conditions, including a low volatility expectation indicated by a Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 51%, present a favorable opportunity for options traders [11]

Company Overview - Khaveen Investments is a global Investment Advisory Firm focused on serving the investment needs of high-net-worth individuals, corporations, associations, and institutions [1] - The firm is a registered investment adviser with the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) [1] - It offers a range of services including market and security research, business valuation, and wealth management [1] Investment Strategy - The flagship Macroquantamental Hedge Fund maintains a diversified portfolio with exposure to hundreds of investments across various asset classes, geographies, sectors, and industries [1] - The investment approach integrates top-down and bottom-up analysis, blending three core strategies: global macro, fundamental, and quantitative [1] Core Expertise - The company specializes in disruptive technologies that are transforming modern industries, including Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, 5G, Autonomous and Electric Vehicles, FinTech, Augmented and Virtual Reality, and the Internet of Things (IoT) [1]

Company Overview - Khaveen Investments is a global investment advisory firm serving high-net-worth individuals, corporations, associations, and institutions [1] - The firm is a registered investment adviser with the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) [1] - It offers comprehensive services including market and security research, business valuation, and wealth management [1] Investment Strategy - The flagship Macroquantamental Hedge Fund maintains a diversified portfolio with exposure to hundreds of investments across various asset classes, geographies, sectors, and industries [1] - The investment approach integrates top-down and bottom-up analysis, blending three core strategies: global macro, fundamental, and quantitative [1] Core Expertise - The firm's core expertise lies in disruptive technologies that are reshaping modern industries [1] - Key focus areas include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, 5G, Autonomous and Electric Vehicles, FinTech, Augmented and Virtual Reality, and the Internet of Things (IoT) [1]

Core Insights - Sandisk led the S&P 500 in 2025 with a share price increase of 559% due to strong demand for data storage solutions driven by the artificial intelligence boom [1][2] - The company is expected to continue its strong performance in 2026, with historical trends suggesting an average return of 78% for top-performing stocks in the following year [4][5] Company Performance - Sandisk's current market capitalization is $40 billion, with a share price of $275.24 and a gross margin of 29.33% [6] - The company gained 2 percentage points of NAND market share in the 12 months ending June 2025, while competitors like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Kioxia lost market share [10] Industry Trends - The demand for data storage products, particularly NAND flash memory, is robust due to the buildout of artificial intelligence infrastructure [2][9] - Experts predict that flash memory will increasingly replace traditional hard disk drives (HDDs) in data centers, with Pure Storage forecasting that by 2028, nearly no new HDD systems will be sold for enterprise data center computing [8] Financial Outlook - Wall Street anticipates Sandisk's adjusted earnings to grow at an annual rate of 112% through the fiscal year ending June 2028, making its current valuation of 110 times earnings appear reasonable [11] - The median target price for Sandisk among 23 analysts is $280 per share, indicating a modest upside of 4% from the current share price [12]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts predict significant upside potential in artificial intelligence (AI) stocks for the upcoming year, with AI being compared to transformative technologies like the internet and smartphones [1][2]. Group 1: Nvidia - Nvidia is recognized for its graphics processing units (GPUs) that enhance compute-intensive workloads, particularly in AI [4]. - The company’s vertically integrated business model, which includes CPUs and software tools, provides a competitive advantage and a wide economic moat [6]. - Nvidia's adjusted earnings rose by 60% in Q3, with expectations of a 67% annual growth rate through January 2027, leading to a median target price of $250 per share, indicating a 32% upside from the current price of $189 [6][8]. Group 2: Meta Platforms - Meta Platforms is the second-largest ad tech company globally, leveraging consumer data from its popular social media properties to enhance ad targeting [8]. - The company has developed AI products that reduce reliance on Nvidia GPUs and improve ad performance, resulting in a 20% earnings increase in Q3 [9][10]. - Wall Street estimates a 21% growth in adjusted earnings for 2026, with a median target price of $840 per share, suggesting a 29% upside from the current price of $650 [10]. Group 3: Pure Storage - Pure Storage specializes in all-flash storage systems and software, utilizing DirectFlash technology to enhance storage efficiency [11][12]. - The company’s products deliver significantly higher storage density and lower energy consumption compared to competitors [12]. - With a projected 16% annual growth in the all-flash array market through 2033, Pure Storage's adjusted earnings increased by 16% in Q3, with expectations of a 23% annual growth rate through February 2027, leading to a median target price of $100 per share, indicating a 45% upside from the current price of $69 [13].