Core Viewpoint - Altria Group's forward dividend yield has reached 7.5% following a stock pullback, raising questions about the sustainability of its dividend amidst challenging trends in its business [1] Financial Performance - In Q3, Altria's revenue net of excise taxes decreased by 1.7% year over year to $5.25 billion, while adjusted EPS rose by 3.6% to $1.45, falling short of analyst expectations for revenue of $5.32 billion [3] - Revenue net of excise taxes for the smokeable segment fell by 1.3% to $4.6 billion, with adjusted operating income increasing slightly by 0.7% to $2.96 billion [6] Shipment Trends - Overall shipment volumes for Altria dropped by 8.2%, with Marlboro brand shipments declining by 11.7% and other premium brands down by 9.7%. In contrast, discount brand shipments surged by 74.5% [4] - For the oral tobacco product segment, revenue net of excise taxes fell by 4.3% to $665 million, with shipment volumes decreasing by 9.6% to 178.2 million units [7] Market Dynamics - Economic pressures, including inflation, are causing adult smokers to shift from premium to discount brands, although Altria has gained market share in the discount segment [5] - Altria's Njoy e-vapor business is embroiled in a patent dispute with Juul, while facing competition from illicit flavored disposable e-vapor products, which constitute an estimated 60% of the market [6] Dividend and Valuation - Despite the challenges in its core cigarette business, Altria's dividend remains well covered, and its balance sheet is in good condition, making the stock appear more reasonably valued than earlier in the year [8]

Core Viewpoint - Low-volatility stocks may struggle to outperform the market over time, particularly during bull markets, highlighting the importance of careful investment selection [1] Group 1: Hamilton Insurance Group (HG) - Hamilton Insurance Group operates global specialty insurance and reinsurance platforms across four countries, with a rolling one-year beta of 0.31 [2] - The stock is currently trading at $25.68 per share, representing 0.9 times forward price-to-book ratio [4] - Concerns about HG include its performance in the market and potential underperformance compared to other investments [3] Group 2: Altria (MO) - Altria is best known for its Marlboro brand and offers a range of tobacco and nicotine products, with a rolling one-year beta of 0.03 [5] - The stock is priced at $57.20 per share, trading at 10.3 times forward price-to-earnings ratio [7] - Altria may present a strong investment opportunity due to its established market presence and product offerings [6] Group 3: Merck (MRK) - Merck develops and sells prescription medicines, vaccines, and animal health products, with a rolling one-year beta of 0.52 [8] - The company has faced challenges, including a projected flat revenue outlook and a 56.9% annual contraction in earnings per share over the past year [9] - Despite these challenges, Merck boasts a best-in-class gross margin of 70.9% and a healthy operating margin of 55%, indicating efficient operations [10] - Merck's massive revenue base of $64.23 billion provides significant negotiating power in a highly regulated sector [11] - The company has seen improvements in adjusted operating profits and free cash flow margin, enhancing its capacity for growth initiatives and shareholder returns [11]

Core Viewpoint - Altria Group, Inc. (NYSE:MO) is recognized for its strong long-term performance in the stock market, despite the analyst's personal aversion to tobacco stocks [1][2]. Company Overview - Altria Group, Inc. produces and sells a variety of tobacco and nicotine products, including cigarettes, cigars, smokeless tobacco, nicotine pouches, and e-vapor products [2]. Investment Perspective - The stock has shown superior returns compared to many others, as noted during the analysis for "How to Make Money in Any Market" [1][2]. - Despite acknowledging Altria's investment potential, the analyst expresses a preference for other stocks, particularly in the AI sector, which are believed to offer greater upside potential and less downside risk [2].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the first half of fiscal year 2026, consolidated revenue increased by $40 million to $1.3 billion, driven by higher third-party tobacco processing volumes and increased sales volumes in the ingredients operations segment [8][9] - Operating income rose by $16 million to $101 million, primarily due to a favorable product mix in the tobacco operations segment [8] - In the second quarter, consolidated revenue was up $43 million to $754 million, with operating income decreasing by $1 million to $68 million due to unfavorable foreign currency comparisons and higher inventory write-downs [10][11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Tobacco operations segment revenue rose by $29 million on a 3% increase in tobacco sales volumes, but segment operating income declined by $12 million due to unfavorable foreign currency comparisons and higher inventory write-downs [10][11] - Ingredients operations segment revenue increased by 11% on higher sales volumes, but operating income was lower due to a less favorable product mix and higher fixed costs [9][11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Uncommitted inventory levels in the tobacco segment decreased to 13%, down from 20% in the previous quarter, indicating effective management of inventory amidst larger crop sizes [20][34] - Worldwide estimated unsold flue-cured tobacco early stocks were at 101 million kilos as of September 30, up 76 million kilos from June 30, attributed to large crops [41][42] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on maximizing and optimizing its tobacco business while navigating expected oversupply conditions later in the fiscal year [12] - The ingredients segment is positioned for growth, with an emphasis on expanding production capabilities and customer engagement [6][12] - Sustainability efforts are being prioritized, with investments in renewable energy and operational efficiency to create long-term value [14][15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating the challenges posed by the consumer packaged goods industry and tariff uncertainties, while maintaining a positive outlook for the second half of the fiscal year [19][28] - The company is committed to driving organic growth and delivering customized solutions to customers, despite the mixed market conditions [12][28] Other Important Information - Interest expense decreased by $4 million year over year, reflecting efforts to reduce leverage [9][40] - The company has approximately $340 million available under its revolving credit facility as of September 30 [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: Regarding the ingredients segment, what is the current utilization at Lancaster and the expected improvement in fixed cost absorption? - Management indicated that they are off to a good start with revenue growth and are focused on converting customer interest into product sales, which will help cover fixed costs over time [18][19] Question: How confident is management about pricing discipline and margins in the tobacco segment with larger crops and softer pricing? - Management expressed comfort with current pricing and demand, noting that while green pricing has softened in some markets, overall demand remains firm [20] Question: What factors contributed to the loss in the ingredients segment during the second quarter? - Management acknowledged that various factors, including market conditions and customer challenges, impacted the pace of conversion and overall performance [28] Question: What is the anticipated uncommitted inventory level for the full year? - Management expects to stay within the comfort range for uncommitted inventory, emphasizing effective communication with customers to ensure timely shipments [35][39]

Group 1 - The focus is on growth and dividend income as a strategy for retirement planning [1] - The portfolio is structured to generate monthly dividend income that grows through reinvestment and annual increases [1] Group 2 - The article expresses personal opinions and is not intended as investment advice [2] - It emphasizes the importance of conducting individual research before making investment decisions [2]

Core Insights - Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB) has garnered attention from investors, with a price target of $110 set by Aaron Grey, indicating a potential upside of approximately 8.74% from its current trading price of $101.16 as of November 5, 2025 [1] Financial Performance - TPB reported impressive earnings per share (EPS) of $1.05 for Q3 2025, significantly exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.81, marking a year-over-year increase from $0.68 and an earnings surprise of +29.63% [2][6] - The company's revenue for the same quarter was $118.98 million, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.90% and showing a substantial increase from $105.62 million in the previous year [3][6] Stock Performance - TPB's stock experienced a price change of $5.98, reflecting a percentage increase of 6.28%, with trading prices fluctuating between a low of $94.50 and a high of $110.33 on the reporting day [4] - Over the past year, TPB's stock reached a high of $110.35 and a low of $47.53, with a current market capitalization of approximately $1.82 billion and a trading volume of 1,379,296 shares [4] Dividend Announcement - The Board of Directors declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.075 per common share, payable on January 9, 2026, to shareholders recorded as of December 19, 2025, reflecting the company's commitment to returning value to shareholders [5]

Key Points Altria fell short of top-line estimates in Q3, reporting a decline in revenue. Consumers are trading down to discount cigarettes due to discretionary spending pressures. The company continues to face challenges with its pivot to next-gen challenges. 10 stocks we like better than Altria Group › Shares of Altria (NYSE: MO) were heading lower last month as the Marlboro-maker disappointed investors with its third-quarter earnings report. Heading into the report at the end of the month, th ...

Group 1 - An AI fintech-based insurance provider, Lemonade (LMND), reported a third-quarter loss of 51 cents per share, an improvement from a loss of 95 cents per share a year ago, leading to an 18% rally in its stock price [1] - Altria Group's stock received an upgrade with an 83 Relative Strength (RS) rating, indicating improved market performance [4] - Lemonade achieved a Relative Strength rating upgrade, reflecting its market leadership with a jump to a 91 RS rating [4] Group 2 - The article highlights that both Lemonade and a tobacco products maker exceeded analysts' expectations during the Q3 earnings season [1] - BlackRock's stock marked a significant milestone related to Bitcoin ETFs, indicating a growing interest in cryptocurrency investments [4] - The Dow Jones stock is noted for a 40% rally, suggesting strong market performance and potential for further breakout opportunities [4]

Core Insights - Altria Group, Inc.'s oral tobacco business achieved a significant margin performance in Q3 2025, with adjusted operating company income margins increasing by 2.4 percentage points to 69.2% despite a decline in segment revenues and a 9.6% drop in overall shipment volumes [1][7] - The margin expansion is attributed more to pricing power rather than product mix, as Altria raised prices while maintaining strong pricing discipline, even as competitors in the pouch category reduced prices [1][2][3] Financial Performance - The oral tobacco margin of 69% reflects effective pricing strategies and cost control in a competitive market, indicating that Altria can sustain profitability through disciplined execution [3][7] - Altria's shares have decreased by 12.5% over the past month, contrasting with the industry's decline of 5.7% [6] - The forward price-to-earnings ratio for Altria is 10.33X, lower than the industry average of 13.44X, suggesting potential undervaluation [8] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates year-over-year earnings growth of 6.1% for 2025 and 2.5% for 2026 [9] - Current earnings estimates for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 are projected at $1.30 and $1.24, respectively, with the current year estimate at $5.43 and next year at $5.57 [10]

Core Insights - Turning Point Brands (TPB) reported quarterly earnings of $1.05 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.81 per share, and up from $0.68 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of +29.63% [1] - The company achieved revenues of $118.98 million for the quarter ended September 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.90% and increasing from $105.62 million year-over-year [2] - Turning Point Brands shares have increased approximately 58.4% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 15.1% [3] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.79 on revenues of $113.3 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $3.50 on revenues of $448.65 million [7] - The estimate revisions trend for Turning Point Brands was mixed prior to the earnings release, resulting in a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) for the stock, indicating expected performance in line with the market [6] Industry Context - The Tobacco industry, to which Turning Point Brands belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 39% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting potential challenges ahead [8] - The performance of Turning Point Brands may be influenced by the overall industry outlook, as empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and earnings estimate revisions [5]