Core Viewpoint - Altria Group, known for its Marlboro brand, faces an uncertain future despite its history of consistent dividend increases and dominance in the tobacco market [1][2]. Industry Transition - The tobacco industry is shifting from combustible cigarettes to smoke-free products, with Altria's ability to adapt to these trends being crucial for its long-term viability [2][5]. - The U.S. tobacco market remains lucrative, with Altria holding a 41% share of the retail cigarette market and 59.5% of the premium segment [4]. Product Development Challenges - Altria has struggled to establish itself in the next-generation product categories, including electronic vapes and heated tobacco devices, following a failed investment in Juul and a recent patent loss [5][6][7]. - Oral nicotine salt pouches have been Altria's most successful smoke-free product, but it still lags behind competitors like Philip Morris International's Zyn [8]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, approximately 83% of Altria's operating income came from smokeable products, indicating that smoke-free products are not yet a significant revenue source [9]. - The legacy smokeable segment remains profitable, allowing Altria to slowly increase free cash flow per share through price hikes and stock repurchases [10]. Dividend and Growth Outlook - Altria recently raised its dividend by 3.9%, offering a starting yield of 6.5%, with analysts projecting an average earnings growth of 3.4% annually over the next three to five years [11][12]. - The company is expected to maintain steady dividend growth for at least another five years, provided it can improve its performance in next-generation products [12]. Distribution Network Advantage - Altria's extensive distribution network, built through its Marlboro brand, positions it to potentially regain market share in new product categories if it executes effectively [13]. Investment Considerations - Altria is considered a strong high-yield dividend stock, appealing to investors seeking steady income, though it may not be suitable for those looking for high growth and capital gains [14][15]. - The company must enhance its product rollout and market presence in the transitioning nicotine industry to secure its long-term position [16].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the new tobacco products industry, with a focus on the growth potential of smokeless tobacco and nicotine pouch segments [8]. Core Insights - The global market for new tobacco products is projected to reach $86.96 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.1%, with significant contributions from smokeless tobacco, vaping, heated tobacco, and oral nicotine products [2][17]. - The report highlights the strong performance of smokeless tobacco and nicotine pouch products, with the latter expected to grow by 51.0% year-on-year in 2024 [2][3]. - The market dynamics are shifting, with North America, Western Europe, and Asia-Pacific regions showing robust growth, particularly in the U.S., which remains the largest market for new tobacco products [23][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Global Market Overview - The new tobacco products market is expanding steadily, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.8% from 2017 to 2024 [17]. - By 2025, the market is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projections indicating increases across all product categories [2][17]. 2. Nicotine Pouches - The global nicotine pouch market is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected market size of 21.2 billion pouches in 2024, marking a 37% increase year-on-year [3]. - Major tobacco companies dominate this segment, with significant market shares held by PMI, BAT, and Altria [3]. 3. Philip Morris International (PMI) - PMI's revenue from new tobacco products is expected to reach $14.66 billion in 2024, a 17.0% increase, with heated tobacco product shipments growing by 11.5% [4]. - The number of PMI's new tobacco users has reached 32.2 million, with a 72.0% replacement rate of traditional cigarette consumers [4]. 4. British American Tobacco (BAT) - BAT is accelerating its "smokeless strategy," with its modern oral tobacco segment showing a 47% revenue increase [5]. - The launch of the Glo Hilo product is anticipated to disrupt the current heated tobacco market dynamics [5]. 5. Altria - Altria's NJOY brand has shown significant growth, with a 15.3% increase in sales volume in 2024 [6]. - The on! brand also experienced a 40.2% increase in sales, indicating a strong performance in the oral nicotine segment [6]. 6. Imperial Brands - Imperial Brands reported a 24.2% revenue increase in its new tobacco segment, driven by strong performance in Europe [6]. - The company is actively launching new products to cater to changing consumer preferences [6]. 7. Japan Tobacco - Japan Tobacco's new tobacco revenue is projected to reach 989 billion yen in 2024, reflecting a 21.1% increase [7]. - The Ploom brand is expanding its presence in emerging markets, contributing to overall sales growth [7]. 8. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies like Smoore International, which is well-positioned to benefit from the expanding vaping market and partnerships with major players like BAT and NJOY [8].

Core Viewpoint - Altria remains an attractive investment for income investors due to its long history of dividend increases and its current high dividend yield of 7% [1][14] Company Strategy - Altria has faced challenges over the past decade due to declining smoking rates and strategic missteps, including a $12 billion investment in Juul and a failed investment in Cronos Group [5] - The company has shifted focus to smoke-free products, selling the rights to market Iqos back to Philip Morris International and investing in Njoy, which has received FDA marketing authorization for its pod-based e-vapor product [6][8] - Altria's next-gen portfolio includes on!, an oral nicotine pouch, and a new heated tobacco product called Ploom, developed in partnership with JT Group [7] Market Performance - Njoy's consumables saw a 15.3% increase to 12.8 million units, and device shipments rose 22.2% to 1.1 million, with retail market share nearly doubling to 6.4% [8] - Despite Njoy's growth, cigarettes still account for the majority of Altria's revenue, with volume sales declining from 76.4 million in 2023 to 68.6 million in 2024, while smokeable products represented 88% of revenue in 2024 [9] Future Goals - Altria aims for a mid-single digits adjusted earnings per share (EPS) compound annual growth rate (CAGR) off $4.84 in 2022, with adjusted EPS rising 3.4% to $5.12 in 2024, resulting in a 2.9% CAGR over the last two years [10] - The company plans to increase its dividend by mid-single digits annually, following a 4.1% increase in 2024, and targets a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2, currently at 2.1 [11] - Altria expects to maintain an adjusted operating margin of at least 60% through 2028, although it has struggled to meet growth targets and has adjusted its expectations for Njoy's cash flow contributions [12] Investment Outlook - Altria's stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12, with a 7% dividend yield, indicating potential for success even if not all 2028 goals are met [13] - In the current economic climate, Altria is positioned to potentially outperform the S&P 500, benefiting from its status in the consumer staples sector and the consistent demand for its products [14] - Overall, despite declining cigarette consumption, Altria is expected to be in a better position three years from now [15]