Core Insights - The total market capitalization of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) reached HKD 48.1 trillion by the end of October 2025, representing a 37% increase compared to HKD 35.2 trillion in the same period last year [1] - The average daily trading volume for October 2025 was HKD 2,749 billion, an 8% increase from HKD 2,550 billion in October 2024 [1] - The average daily trading volume for the first ten months of 2025 was HKD 2,582 billion, a significant 102% increase from HKD 1,278 billion in the same period last year [2] Trading Activity - The average daily trading volume for derivative warrants in the first ten months of 2025 was HKD 80 billion, up 60% from HKD 50 billion in the previous year [2] - The average daily trading volume for bull and bear certificates was HKD 104 billion, a 60% increase from HKD 65 billion year-on-year [2] - The average daily trading volume for exchange-traded funds (ETFs) was HKD 343 billion, reflecting a 127% increase from HKD 151 billion in the same period last year [2] New Listings and Fundraising - There were 81 new listings in the first ten months of 2025, a 50% increase compared to 54 new listings in the same period last year [2] - The total amount raised through initial public offerings (IPOs) was HKD 2,160 billion, a remarkable 209% increase from HKD 700 billion year-on-year [2] - The total fundraising amount for the first ten months of 2025 reached HKD 5,070 billion, up 228% from HKD 1,548 billion in the previous year [3] Derivative Market Performance - The average daily trading volume for futures and options in the first ten months of 2025 was 1,696,752 contracts, a 7% increase from 1,582,570 contracts in the same period last year [4] - The average daily trading volume for stock index futures was 568,701 contracts [5] - The average daily trading volume for stock options was 896,891 contracts, up 22% from 733,117 contracts year-on-year [6] Historical Records - On October 2, 2025, the weekly trading volume for stock options reached a historical high of 312,545 contracts [7] - On October 27, 2025, the trading volume for Hang Seng Tech Index futures options hit a record high of 64,982 contracts [8]

Core Viewpoint - Western Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) and is optimistic about the deepening of mutual market access and the appreciation of the Renminbi, raising the forecast for 2025 net profit to HKD 18 billion [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, HKEX reported revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 21.85 billion and HKD 13.42 billion, representing year-on-year increases of 36.6% and 44.8% respectively [1] - In Q3 2025, HKEX achieved revenue and net profit of HKD 7.78 billion and HKD 4.90 billion, with year-on-year increases of 44.7% and 55.8%, and quarter-on-quarter increases of 8% and 10% [1] - Q3 net profit reached a historical high, slightly exceeding previous expectations [1] Group 2: Market Activity - The Hong Kong cash market achieved record trading volumes, with an average daily turnover (ADT) of approximately HKD 256.4 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 126.3% [2] - In Q3 2025, the ADT reached approximately HKD 286.4 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 142.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20% [2] - The Southbound and Northbound ADT reached HKD 125.9 billion and RMB 206.4 billion respectively, with year-on-year increases of 284.9% and 143.5% [2] Group 3: IPO and Derivatives Market - In the first three quarters of 2025, the Hong Kong market saw 69 new IPOs, raising a total of HKD 188.3 billion, which is a year-on-year increase of 238.7% [2] - As of the end of October, the total IPO fundraising amount exceeded USD 26 billion, ranking first globally [2] - The average daily trading volume of derivatives and LME continued to grow, with average daily contract numbers and commodity ADV increasing by 11% and 4% year-on-year respectively [2] Group 4: Investment Income - Margin investment income growth is a key support for investment income, with margin scale increasing by 47% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025 [2] - The company fully redeemed its external portfolio in Q2 2025 to raise funds for headquarters property, leading to a 39% year-on-year decline in external portfolio income for Q1-Q3 2025 [2] - The average overnight HIBOR in October has rebounded to 2.8% from a low of 0.02% at the end of June, but may still show volatility due to potential Fed rate cuts and the impact of external portfolio redemption on annual investment income [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan raises the profit forecast for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (00388) and maintains a "buy" rating, citing strong trading activity in the Hong Kong stock market and expectations for continued market engagement due to the return of quality Chinese assets and the extension of cross-border connectivity to IPOs [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2025 (9M25), Hong Kong Exchanges reported total revenue of HKD 21.85 billion, a year-on-year increase of 37%, with main revenue at HKD 20.44 billion, up 41% [2]. - Net profit for 9M25 reached HKD 13.42 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 45% [2]. - In the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25), main revenue was HKD 7.48 billion, up 54% year-on-year and 13% quarter-on-quarter, while net profit was HKD 4.90 billion, increasing by 56% year-on-year and 10% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue sources for 9M25 include: trading fees at HKD 7.83 billion (39%), clearing and settlement fees at HKD 5.27 billion (26%), investment income at HKD 3.89 billion (19%), listing fees at HKD 1.27 billion (6%), and market data fees at HKD 0.87 billion (4%) [3]. - Year-on-year growth rates for various fees include: trading fees +57%, clearing and settlement fees +66%, listing fees +17%, and market data fees +8% [3]. Trading Activity - The average daily turnover (ADT) for Hong Kong stocks in 9M25 was HKD 238.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 132%, with 3Q25 ADT reaching a record high of HKD 267.9 billion, up 150% year-on-year [3]. - Southbound ADT for 9M25 was HKD 125.9 billion, up 229%, while northbound ADT was RMB 206.4 billion, up 67% [3]. IPO Market - In 9M25, the Hong Kong IPO market raised HKD 188.3 billion, three times the amount raised in the same period last year, with 69 new IPOs [5]. - As of the end of 3Q25, there were 297 IPO applications in process, compared to 84 at the end of 2024 [5]. Investment Income - Investment income for 3Q25 was HKD 1.02 billion, down 16% year-on-year and 34% quarter-on-quarter, contributing 21% to net profit [6]. - The decline in investment income was attributed to reduced external fund composition and narrowed exchange rate gains [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights a significant improvement in ADT-related businesses, indicating potential for valuation uplift. The company's revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 reached HKD 218.5 billion and HKD 134.2 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 37% and 45% [5][6] - The report anticipates continued high growth in the company's fundamentals, driven by a recovery in IPO activities and sustained inflows of southbound capital, with a forecasted increase in ADT for 2025-2027 [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, trading, settlement, listing, custody, data, and other investment income grew by 57%, 66%, 16%, 25%, 8%, 10%, and 4% year-on-year, respectively. The core driver of revenue growth is the significant increase in trading and settlement fees directly linked to ADT [5][6] - The company has revised its ADT assumptions for 2025-2027 to HKD 2,580 billion, HKD 2,620 billion, and HKD 2,700 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 96%, 2%, and 3% [5][6] Market Outlook - The primary market for Hong Kong stocks is experiencing high demand, with 69 new listings in Q1-Q3 2025, a 53% increase year-on-year, and total fundraising amounting to HKD 1,883 billion, more than three times that of the same period in 2024 [7] - The report notes that the trading volume is expected to remain active due to the influx of quality assets from Chinese concept stocks returning to Hong Kong and the wave of A-share listings in Hong Kong [7] Valuation and Dividend - The expected dividend yield for 2025 is 3.0%, assuming a constant payout ratio of 90%. The report suggests that a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve could drive foreign capital back into the Hong Kong market, benefiting the exchange [8] - The current PE ratio is 31.2, which is at the 22nd percentile of the past ten years, indicating room for valuation improvement [8]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Open Source Securities indicates that the combination of the AtoH wave and the return of Chinese concept stocks is driving long-term asset expansion in the Hong Kong stock market, leading to sustained net inflows of southbound funds and active trading volumes in the market. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) is expected to benefit from the anticipated foreign capital inflow due to potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, maintaining a high level of business performance and a "buy" rating for the stock [1]. Group 1 - The active spot ADT is driving significant increases in trading and settlement revenues, with trading fees and system usage fees reaching HKD 7.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 57%, including spot/derivatives/commodity revenues of HKD 4.7 billion/HKD 2.0 billion/HKD 1.1 billion, which are year-on-year increases of 116%/15%/6% [2]. - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a high level of activity, with 69 new listings in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 53%, and total fundraising amounting to HKD 188.3 billion, more than three times that of the same period in 2024 [2]. - The report highlights that the trading volume increase indirectly boosts custodial, trustee, and agent service fees, as well as market data fees, which have seen year-on-year increases of 25% and 8%, respectively [2]. Group 2 - The investment yield of HKEX has decreased, with a projected dividend yield of 3.0% for 2025, indicating potential for valuation improvement. The net investment income for the first three quarters of 2025 is HKD 3.89 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4% [3]. - The expected dividend yield for 2025, assuming a constant payout ratio of 90%, is 3.0%, while the current yield on U.S. Treasury bonds is 4.10%. The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to drive foreign capital back into the Hong Kong stock market [3]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the company is 31.2 times, which is at the 22nd percentile of the past ten years, with a dynamic PE of 30.2 times, indicating potential for valuation enhancement [3].

瑞银发布研报称，将香港交易所(00388)目标价从485港元下调3%至471港元，主要反映瑞银对联储局减 息的最新看法。评级为"中性"。该行表示，考虑到第四季至今的市场活动，该行将2025财年日均成交额 预期从2500亿港元上调至2590亿港元。报告指，2025年第三季业绩符合预期，收入同比增45%，超出市 场预期3%;净利同比增56%，超出市场预期4%。进入第四季度，港交所面临更严峻的基数。 ...

Core Insights - Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) reported record high total revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue reaching HKD 21.851 billion, a 37% year-on-year increase, and net profit of HKD 13.419 billion, up 45% [1][3] Revenue and Profit Growth - The significant growth in HKEX's performance is attributed to increased market trading activity and a surge in new stock listings, with major business revenue rising by 41% year-on-year [3][4] - In Q3 alone, HKEX achieved a revenue of HKD 7.775 billion, marking a 45% increase, and a net profit of HKD 4.9 billion, which is a 56% rise compared to the previous year [1][3] Trading Activity - The average daily trading volume for the first three quarters reached HKD 256.4 billion, a remarkable 126% increase year-on-year, driving significant growth in trading and settlement fees [3][4] - Stock trading fee revenue amounted to HKD 4.193 billion, more than double that of the same period last year [3] Stock Connect Performance - The Stock Connect mechanism showed strong performance, with average daily trading volumes for Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect reaching RMB 206.4 billion and HKD 125.9 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 67% and 229% [3][4] - Total revenue from Stock Connect rose to HKD 3.225 billion, an 81.18% increase year-on-year [3] New Listings and Capital Raising - The new stock market has become a crucial driver of HKEX's growth, with 297 new stock listing applications processed by the end of Q3, more than triple the 84 applications at the end of 2024 [4] - HKEX led the global market in new stock fundraising, with a total of HKD 188.3 billion raised from 69 companies, over three times the amount raised in the same period last year [4] Strategic Initiatives - HKEX's CEO emphasized ongoing strategic reforms aimed at diversifying the market, enhancing liquidity, and strengthening global connectivity to solidify Hong Kong's status as an international financial center [4] - Industry experts express optimism about HKEX's future, highlighting its core trading business, Stock Connect mechanism, and strong performance in new stock fundraising as indicators of resilience and vitality in the international financial hub [4]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating on Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (00388) and raises the target price from HKD 544 to HKD 562, indicating a positive outlook for the stock [1] Financial Performance - The stock is currently trading at approximately 30 times forward P/E, which is below the mid-cycle P/E level of around 35 times [1] - For Q3 2025, the earnings exceeded Goldman Sachs' expectations, primarily due to better-than-expected investment income performance [1] - Core profit, excluding investment income, met expectations, growing by 101% driven by a 141% year-on-year increase in average daily turnover [1] Earnings Forecast Adjustments - Following the inclusion of Q3 performance and recent trading volume trends, Goldman Sachs has raised its earnings per share estimates for fiscal years 2025 to 2028 by 5%, 4%, 4%, and 5% respectively [1] Valuation Drivers - Three key factors are expected to further drive the revaluation of Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited: 1. Market consensus has raised average daily turnover forecasts [1] 2. The P/E ratio of Hong Kong Exchanges is expanding its premium relative to the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index [1] 3. The growth momentum of listed companies in Hong Kong is recovering [1]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs reported that Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) exceeded profit expectations for the third quarter, primarily due to better-than-expected investment income [1] - Core profit, excluding investment income, met expectations, driven by a 141% year-on-year increase in average daily trading volume, resulting in a 101% growth [1] - Following the third-quarter performance and recent trading volume trends, Goldman Sachs raised its earnings per share estimates for fiscal years 2025 to 2028 by 5%, 4%, 4%, and 5% respectively [1] Company Valuation Factors - Three key factors are identified that could further drive the revaluation of HKEX: 1. Market consensus has raised average daily trading volume forecasts [1] 2. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of HKEX has expanded relative to the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index [1] 3. The growth momentum of listed companies in Hong Kong is recovering [1] Investment Rating - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating on HKEX, increasing the target price from HKD 544 to HKD 562 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) has achieved record highs in trading volumes and financial performance in the third quarter of 2025, driven by increased market activity and a significant number of IPO applications [1][2][6]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, HKEX reported revenue and other income of HKD 77.75 billion, a year-on-year increase of 45% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8% [2][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025 was HKD 49 billion, reflecting a 56% year-on-year increase and a 10% quarter-on-quarter increase [2][3]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue and other income reached HKD 218.51 billion, up 37% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 134.19 billion, a 45% increase year-on-year [2][3]. Trading Activity - The average daily trading volume in the cash market reached HKD 2,564 billion, more than double that of the same period in 2024 [3]. - The average daily trading volume for derivatives reached 170,000 contracts, an 11% increase year-on-year [3]. - The average daily trading amounts for the Northbound and Southbound Stock Connects were HKD 206.4 billion and HKD 125.94 billion, respectively, marking increases of 67% and 229% year-on-year [4]. IPO Market - As of September 30, 2025, there were 297 IPO applications in Hong Kong, with total IPO financing amounting to HKD 1,883 billion, more than three times that of the same period in 2024 [5][6]. - The number of new listings reached 69, with total fundraising of HKD 1,883 billion, the highest in three years [6]. Institutional Investment - HKEX has seen increased holdings from major institutions such as BlackRock and Citigroup, each acquiring 63.5 million shares, reaching a 5.01% ownership stake [7]. - Other funds, including passive index funds, have also increased their stakes in HKEX, indicating strong institutional confidence [7].