Investment Rating - The report reiterates a Buy rating on InPost with a price target of EUR 19.5, indicating a potential upside of approximately 33% [1]. Core Insights - InPost's share price has decreased by 12% year-to-date and 8% following the 1Q25 results, which were broadly in line with expectations. The management's cautious outlook on parcel volumes in Poland is attributed to weaker consumer sentiment and geopolitical uncertainties [1][15]. - Despite the cautious tone, there are indications of potential volume upside as Allegro anticipates a slight acceleration in GMV growth in 2Q, and April retail sales showed marked improvement compared to 1Q25 [1][15]. - Operationally, InPost has demonstrated strong execution, with a 10% year-over-year increase in volumes in Poland and an adjusted EBITDA margin expansion to 47.9% [2][16]. Financial Performance - InPost's revenue forecast for 2025 is PLN 14,893.6 million, with an expected EBITA of PLN 2,688.2 million and EPS of PLN 3.22 [4][12]. - The company is trading at an EV/EBITDA of 8x for the next 12 months, which is about a 20% discount compared to its three-year average [3][9]. - The adjusted EBITDA margin in the Eurozone improved to 13.5%, driven by a 29% year-over-year increase in B2C volumes and a 70 percentage point surge in APM usage [2][16]. Market Dynamics - InPost's performance in Poland remains resilient, with a 10% volume growth year-over-year, supported by an 18% increase in SME volumes [2][16]. - The Eurozone is experiencing a shift towards B2C, with volumes growing by 11% year-over-year, indicating a positive trend in the market [2][16]. - The integration of Yodel is a key focus for InPost in the UK, with early results showing a pro forma volume increase of 4x year-over-year and significant improvements in cost-to-serve [2][16]. Strategic Initiatives - InPost is well-positioned to unlock synergies from the Yodel integration and expand its APM reach in underserved rural areas, which is expected to enhance both volumes and margins in the second half of 2025 and beyond [15][16]. - The company is deepening its cross-border and merchant ecosystem, with cross-border sales now accounting for 20% of Eurozone volume [16][17]. Consumer Trends - Recent data indicates that real retail sales in Poland grew by 6.4% in April, suggesting a recovery in consumer sentiment [18][21]. - E-commerce sales in Poland also showed growth, with an 8.2% year-over-year increase in April, driven by order growth and an increase in average order value [22][23].

Company Actions - United Parcel Service (UPS) announced it will cut approximately 20,000 jobs, representing about 4% of its workforce, and close 73 facilities to reduce costs amid economic uncertainty and a potential decrease in business from its largest customer, Amazon [1][5] - UPS previously reached an agreement with Amazon to reduce shipping volume by 50% by the second half of 2026, with Amazon accounting for 11.8% of UPS' overall revenue in 2024 [5] Economic Context - A slowdown in global trade is expected to decrease the demand for shipping services, which could negatively impact parcel delivery companies [2] - UPS CEO Carol Tome highlighted that the current trade environment presents unprecedented challenges not seen in over a century [2] Financial Implications - UPS anticipates expenses between $400 million and $600 million related to separation benefits and lease-related cuts in 2025 following previous workforce reductions [6] - The company is also facing a decline in volume from e-commerce sellers linked to China, such as Temu and Shein, due to new tariffs on previously duty-free goods [9] Strategic Initiatives - To assist customers with tariff and trade policy changes, UPS launched a website providing updates and expert connections [9] - UPS introduced a new Global Checkout service that displays customs fees and duties on international purchases at checkout [10]

Core Insights - UPS plans to cut 20,000 jobs by 2025 as part of a cost-cutting initiative due to soft demand from major customers [1] - The company aims to save $3.5 billion in 2025 through these job cuts and the closure of 73 facilities by the end of June [1] - UPS reported a slight revenue decline to $21.5 billion in Q1 2025, down 0.7% year-over-year, while adjusted operating profit increased by 0.9% to $1.7 billion [2] - The company has withdrawn its financial guidance for the year due to uncertainties related to the impact of tariffs [2][3] Company Actions - Job cuts of 20,000 and closure of 73 facilities are part of a strategy to enhance operational efficiency [1] - The CEO stated that these actions will position UPS as a stronger and more agile company [1] Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was reported at $21.5 billion, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous year [2] - Adjusted operating profit for the same period was $1.7 billion, showing a modest increase [2] Market Outlook - The company has refrained from providing a full-year financial outlook due to macroeconomic uncertainties and tariff impacts [3]

Core Viewpoint - United Parcel Service (UPS) is expected to report a decline in both earnings and revenues for the first quarter of 2025, with earnings estimated at $1.42 per share, a 0.7% decrease from the previous year, and revenues projected at $21.06 billion, indicating a 3% decline from the same quarter last year [1][2]. Earnings and Revenue Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UPS's earnings is $1.42 per share, reflecting a downward revision of seven cents over the past 60 days [1]. - Revenue estimates stand at $21.06 billion, which is a 3% decline compared to the year-ago quarter [2]. Earnings Surprise History - UPS has a history of earnings surprises, with an average surprise of 3.43% across the last four quarters [3]. Earnings Prediction Model - The current Earnings ESP for UPS is -4.08%, indicating a lower likelihood of an earnings beat this quarter [5][6]. - UPS holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), suggesting a bearish outlook [6]. Factors Influencing Q1 Results - Geopolitical uncertainties and high inflation are expected to negatively impact shipping volumes [7]. - Labor costs are anticipated to be high, while low fuel costs may provide some relief, with a projected 5.1% decrease in fuel expenses compared to Q1 2024 [8]. Stock Performance - UPS stock has declined by 32.9% over the past year, underperforming its industry, which saw a 29.7% decline, while the S&P 500 rose by 7% [10]. Valuation Metrics - UPS is trading at a forward sales multiple of 0.96, which is higher than its industry peers, indicating a stretched valuation [13]. Investment Thesis - A decline in shipping demand is expected, with average daily volumes projected to decrease by 8.5% in 2025 compared to 2024 [16]. - Recent easing signals in the U.S.-China trade tensions may provide some optimism, but concerns over dividend sustainability amid demand weakness remain [18]. Long-term Outlook - Despite near-term challenges, UPS's strong brand and network position it as a compelling long-term investment in the transportation sector [19].

Company Overview - Veho is a logistics and technology company operating one of the largest parcel delivery platforms in the U.S. [1] - The company aims to transform shipping from a cost center into a value driver by leveraging purpose-built technology and a scalable delivery network [4]. Leadership Addition - Alex Estevez, a veteran finance executive with over 25 years of experience in scaling technology businesses, has joined Veho's Board [2][3]. - Estevez has held key financial leadership roles at notable companies such as Atlassian, Datastream Systems, and BigFix, and has been an advisor to various tech firms [2]. Strategic Vision - Veho's co-founder and CEO, Itamar Zur, emphasized that Estevez's financial expertise will be crucial as the company aims to become the delivery platform partner of choice for leading brands [3]. - Estevez highlighted the importance of operational discipline and financial control in executing Veho's strategy, which is centered on customer-centric operational excellence [3]. Performance Metrics - Veho boasts impressive operational metrics, including a 99% on-time delivery rate, a customer satisfaction score of 4.9/5, 71% fewer delivery-related refunds, and a 41% increase in customer lifetime value [4]. - The company currently serves over 113 million Americans across 50 markets and continues to grow [4].

Core Viewpoint - FedEx has revised its full-year profit and revenue guidance downward, indicating ongoing struggles in its recovery and raising concerns for both the company and the broader U.S. economy [1][3]. Financial Performance - FedEx now expects adjusted earnings per share for fiscal 2025 to be between $18 and $18.60, down from a previous range of $19 to $20 and significantly below the original target of $20 to $22 [2]. - Revenue for the year ending in May is expected to be flat or slightly down year over year, a downgrade from earlier forecasts that anticipated flat revenue [2][10]. - In the fiscal third quarter, adjusted earnings were reported at $4.51 per share, an increase from $3.86 in the same quarter last year, although it fell slightly below analysts' expectations [8]. Economic Context - The company is facing challenges due to continued weakness in the U.S. industrial economy, which is impacting demand for its business-to-business services [4][10]. - The industrial economy is crucial for FedEx's high-volume shipments, but it has been struggling while e-commerce demand, which is lower-margin, continues to dominate [5][10]. - External factors such as proposed tariffs and fears of a trade war are adding to the uncertainty, potentially affecting U.S. manufacturers and shipping demand [7][10]. Strategic Initiatives - FedEx is actively pursuing a stock buyback program, having repurchased $500 million worth of shares in the latest quarter, bringing the year-to-date total to $2.5 billion, signaling management's confidence in its long-term transformation plan [9]. - The company aims to achieve permanent cost reductions of $2.2 billion in fiscal 2025 to bolster profitability in the coming years [10]. Market Implications - FedEx's struggles may serve as a bellwether for the overall U.S. economy, with its performance potentially indicating broader economic trends [11].