November 13, 2025 Special Report Global Investment 01 Strategy MacroQuant Model Update: May 31, 2024 Title Global Investment Strategy In this Issue Editorial Board Peter Berezin Chief Global Strategist Melanie Kermadjian Managing Analyst Miroslav Aradski Associate Vice President Chanhyuck Lee Senior Analyst Allen Li, CFA Research Analyst Ayaan Sohhel Research Associate Mathieu Savary Chief European Strategist When Capex Booms Turn Into Busts: Lessons From History Executive Summary Top Takeaway: We examine p ...

Core Insights - Market volatility in 2025 has led investors to reassess their portfolios, with defensive stocks like the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) gaining 18.3% year to date due to the consistent demand for electricity [1] Company Performance - AES reported a 30.6% increase in diluted earnings per share for Q3 2025, driven by new renewable projects and updated rates in Indiana and Ohio [2] - The company's net income reached $517 million, an increase of $302 million from the previous year, supported by improved tax results and earnings from renewable projects [6] - AES's adjusted EBITDA rose to $830 million, up $132 million, with adjusted EPS at $0.75 [6] Financial Metrics - AES has a dividend yield of 5.1%, significantly higher than the utility sector average of 3.75% [5] - The forward price-earnings ratio for AES is 6.31x, compared to the sector's 19.46x, indicating that the shares are relatively affordable for value investors [5] Growth Drivers - AES's growth is primarily attributed to its clean energy and utility businesses, despite a slight setback from the sale of AES Brasil [7] - The company has annual sales of $12.28 billion and net income of $1.68 billion, reflecting a stable balance sheet and reliable earnings growth [7] - AES is advancing its Bellefield project, which will be the largest solar-plus-storage site in the country, with a 15-year deal with Amazon to bring 1,000 MW online [8]

Constellation’s plan to restart its shuttered Three Mile Island nuclear plant is getting $1 billion in backing from the US government as the Trump administration pushes to add more atomic power on the electric grid https://t.co/FQ6nGt1wIs ...

Core Points - American Water emphasizes the importance of proper disposal of fats, oils, and grease (FOGs) to protect plumbing and wastewater systems, which in turn safeguards communities and the environment [2][3] - The company provides practical tips for disposing of FOGs, including not rinsing them down the drain, using a strainer, and scraping food scraps into the trash before washing dishes [6] Company Overview - American Water is the largest regulated water and wastewater utility company in the U.S., serving over 14 million people across 14 states and 18 military installations [4] - The company reported revenues of $4.68 billion and net income of $1.05 billion for the year 2024 [8][13] - American Water has a workforce of 6,700 employees and has been operational since 1886 [4][8]

Group 1 - Dominion Energy (D) is currently trading within a support range of $58.42 to $64.58, where it has historically rebounded seven times over the past decade, averaging a peak return of 13.4% [3] - The stock's recent decline raises questions about whether it is nearing exhaustion or preparing for further declines, as support levels can attract bargain hunters but may also fail if underlying pressures persist [2][4] - Despite exceeding Q3 operating earnings expectations and showing operational strengths, the stock has a high P/E ratio of around 23x, indicating a premium valuation, and faces significant leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.7 [4] Group 2 - The stock has experienced significant declines in the past, including a 25% drop during the Dot-Com Bubble, a 41% drop during the Global Financial Crisis, and a 52% decline during the Inflation Shock, highlighting its vulnerability to adverse market conditions [6] - Analyst consensus remains a 'Hold' with average price targets suggesting only slight upside, compounded by sector-wide pressures such as sensitivity to interest rates and rising capital costs [4] - Recent financial metrics show a revenue growth of 5.3% over the last twelve months and a free cash flow margin of almost -53.0%, indicating challenges in cash generation [10]

Core Insights - DTE Energy Company is valued at a market cap of $28.5 billion and operates primarily in electric and natural gas utilities in Michigan, along with non-utility businesses in energy trading, renewable energy, and industrial energy services [1] Performance Overview - Over the past 52 weeks, DTE's shares have increased by 14.6%, outperforming the S&P 500 Index, which gained 13.7%. However, in the last six months, DTE's stock has seen a slight decline, while the S&P 500 rose by 12% [2] - DTE has also outperformed the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) with a 13% increase over the past year, but has underperformed in the last six months with a 9% return [3] Earnings Report - Following the release of its third-quarter earnings, DTE's shares dropped by 1.8%. The operating EPS rose to $2.25, exceeding expectations, and operating earnings increased to $468 million. Management remains confident in achieving the high end of its FY2025 operating EPS guidance of $7.09–$7.23 [4] - A significant highlight for the quarter was DTE's expanding role in data-center electrification, finalizing a 1.4-GW agreement and engaging in late-stage talks for nearly 3 GW more, leading to a $6.5 billion increase in its five-year capital investment plan [4] Analyst Expectations - For the current fiscal year ending in December, analysts project DTE's EPS to grow by 5.9% year over year to $7.23. The company's earnings surprise history is mixed, having exceeded consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters but missing in the previous quarter [5] - Among 17 analysts covering DTE, the consensus rating is a "Moderate Buy," consisting of seven "Strong Buy," one "Moderate Buy," and nine "Hold" ratings [5] Analyst Sentiment - The current analyst configuration is less bullish than two months ago when eight analysts had suggested a "Strong Buy" rating for the stock. J.P. Morgan analyst Jeremy Tonet reiterated a "Hold" rating on DTE Energy with a price target of $151 [6]

Core Insights - CMS Energy reported a 16% year-over-year increase in electric utility operating revenue, reaching $1.68 billion, attributed to favorable weather and regulatory developments [5][6][8] - Weather-adjusted electricity deliveries remained roughly flat at 10.4 TWh year over year [2] - The company has a large load pipeline of 9 GW, with 1 GW to 2 GW in the final stages of development [3][8] Financial Performance - Electric utility operating revenue for Q3 2025 was $1.68 billion, marking a 16% increase compared to the previous year [5] - The increase in revenue contributed to growth in the parent company's earnings per share [5] Electricity Deliveries - Weather-adjusted electricity deliveries were approximately 10.4 TWh, showing little change from the previous year [2] Large Load Pipeline - CMS Energy has interconnected 450 MW of new industrial loads recently, part of a projected 900 MW growth through 2029 [6] - The company is in the final stages of contracting for an additional 1 GW to 2 GW of industrial load, including data centers and manufacturing facilities [8][9] Future Investments - CMS Energy plans to invest $13.7 billion in distribution and clean energy generation through 2029 [4] - The company expects to see significant growth in large-load customers, particularly in the data center sector [8] Regulatory Developments - The Michigan Public Service Commission approved a special tariff for loads greater than 100 MW, facilitating future data center deals [9]

I am a value-oriented investor who seeks out high-quality companies with long histories of dividend growth. I believe that patient investors who build a core portfolio of dividend paying equities can achieve their retirement goals without taking on unnecessary risk. Dividend growth profiles are the best indicators of management's commitment to returning cash to shareholders. Dividend growth investing involves identifying quality companies with competitive advantages that provide visibility towards future ca ...

Core Insights - Artificial intelligence (AI) is identified as the greatest investment opportunity of the current era, with a strong emphasis on the urgent need for energy to support its growth [1][2][3] - A specific company is highlighted as a key player in the AI energy sector, owning critical energy infrastructure assets that are essential for meeting the increasing energy demands of AI technologies [3][7] Investment Landscape - Wall Street is investing hundreds of billions into AI, but there is a looming question regarding the energy supply needed to sustain this growth [2] - AI data centers consume energy equivalent to that of small cities, leading to concerns about power grid strain and rising electricity prices [2] - The company in focus is positioned to benefit from the surge in demand for electricity driven by AI advancements [3][6] Company Profile - The company is described as a "toll booth" operator in the AI energy boom, collecting fees from energy exports and benefiting from the onshoring trend due to tariffs [5][6] - It possesses significant nuclear energy infrastructure assets, making it a crucial player in the U.S. energy strategy [7] - The company is noted for its capability in executing large-scale engineering, procurement, and construction projects across various energy sectors [7] Financial Position - The company is completely debt-free and has a substantial cash reserve, amounting to nearly one-third of its market capitalization [8] - It also holds a significant equity stake in another AI-related company, providing indirect exposure to multiple growth opportunities without high premiums [9][10] Market Sentiment - There is a growing interest from hedge funds in this company, which is considered undervalued and off-the-radar compared to other AI and energy stocks [9][10] - The company is trading at less than 7 times earnings, indicating a potential for significant upside in the context of its critical role in the AI and energy sectors [10] Future Outlook - The convergence of AI, energy infrastructure, and tariffs presents a unique investment opportunity, with the potential for substantial returns as the demand for AI continues to rise [14][15] - The influx of talent into the AI sector is expected to drive rapid advancements, further solidifying the importance of energy infrastructure in supporting this growth [12][13]

Our call on Enel SpA ( OTCPK:ENLAY )( OTCPK:ESOCF ) and the decision to overweight EU utilities proved correct. Since the H1 results, Enel is up by an additional 13.5% (Fig. 1). After market close, the company released its nine-month results, and, inBuy-side hedge professionals conducting fundamental, income oriented, long term analysis across sectors globally in developed markets. Please shoot us a message or leave a comment to discuss ideas.DISCLOSURE: All of our articles are a matter of opinion, informed ...