在过去的一年里，纳斯达克中国金龙指数全年累计上涨11.33%。多家明星中概股交出亮眼答卷。其 中，阿里巴巴累计上涨超75%、网易涨58.28%、百度涨近55%。另外，阿特斯太阳能涨113.76%、富途 控股涨105.29%、世纪互联涨78.48%、小鹏汽车涨71.66%。 贵金属方面，12月31日纽约尾盘，现货黄金跌0.53%，报4316.59美元/盎司。现货白银跌6.16%，报 71.5733美元/盎司。期货也以大跌收盘，COMEX黄金期货跌1.24%，COMEX白银期货跌8.91%报70.98 美元/盎司。 2025年全年表现上，国际金银均创1979年以来最大年度涨幅，现货黄金年内累计上涨超64.55%，现货 白银年内累计上涨147.95%。 12月31日，WTI 2月原油期货收跌0.53美元，跌幅0.91%，报57.42美元/桶，2025年累计下跌将近20%。 布伦特2月原油期货收跌0.48美元，跌幅0.78%，报60.85美元/桶，2025年累计下跌超18%，创2020年以 来最大年度跌幅，连续第三年走低——创历史上最长年度下跌。 2025年美股收官，从全年表现来看，经历4月的颠簸后，标普500指数录 ...

Market Overview - In 2025, U.S. stock and bond markets faced declines, with major indices experiencing four consecutive days of losses. However, the tech sector supported the Nasdaq, which rose over 20% for the year, while Nvidia and Google saw annual gains of nearly 40% and 65%, respectively [1] - The U.S. unemployment claims fell to 199,000, nearing historical lows, while the dollar index rose to a one-week high despite an eight-year record annual decline [1][11] - The offshore RMB broke through 6.98, reaching a 15-month high, with an annual increase of over 3000 points, reversing three years of decline [1] - The cryptocurrency market saw significant declines, with Bitcoin dropping over 6% and Ethereum falling more than 10% for the year [1] - Precious metals experienced a significant annual increase, with gold and silver rising over 60% and nearly 150%, respectively, marking the largest annual gains since 1979 [1][3] A-Share Market - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3968.84 points, up 0.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.58% to 13525.02 points. The ChiNext Index dropped 1.23% to 3203.17 points [3] - The A-share market saw a strong performance in 2025, with the Shanghai Index gaining nearly 20% and the ChiNext Index soaring close to 50% [1] Commodity Market - The commodity market in 2025 displayed a historic divergence, with precious metals leading a bull market. Silver surged over 140%, while gold rose over 60%, marking the strongest performance since 1979 [14] - Copper prices increased over 40%, achieving the largest annual gain since 2009, while energy and agricultural products faced a bear market, with crude oil prices dropping over 15% [14] Regulatory Changes - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced a reduction in public fund subscription fees and sales service fees, with no sales service fees for fund shares held for over a year [8] - The CSRC's measures aim to enhance investor protection and improve the investment environment [8] Manufacturing Sector - China's official manufacturing PMI for December was reported at 50.1, returning to the expansion zone, while the non-manufacturing PMI was at 50.2. This indicates a recovery in manufacturing and service sectors [9][10] - The increase in PMI is attributed to policy support, rising external demand, and a favorable seasonal effect due to the late timing of the Spring Festival [10] Technology Sector - OpenAI reported an average employee compensation of $1.5 million, setting a record in the tech industry, with stock compensation expected to increase significantly in the coming years [12] - The launch of the first personal robot by Upwind New Materials marks a strategic entry into the personal robotics market, showcasing advancements in technology [21]

Market Overview - In 2025, U.S. stock and bond markets faced declines, with major indices experiencing four consecutive days of losses. However, the tech sector supported the Nasdaq, which rose over 20% for the year, while Nvidia and Google saw annual gains of nearly 40% and 65%, respectively [2] - The U.S. unemployment claims fell to 199,000, nearing historical lows, indicating a recovering job market [19] - The Chinese manufacturing PMI for December returned to the expansion zone at 50.1, while the non-manufacturing PMI was at 50.2, suggesting a slight improvement in economic activity [27] Commodity Market - Precious metals experienced significant volatility, with gold and silver prices rising over 60% and nearly 150% for the year, marking the largest annual gains since 1979 [2] - Crude oil prices fell approximately 20% in 2025, representing the largest annual decline in five years, with Brent crude also experiencing a three-year consecutive drop [2] - Copper prices increased over 40% for the year, achieving the highest annual gain since 2009 [2] Company and Industry Developments - OpenAI reported an average employee compensation of $1.5 million, setting a record in the tech industry [20] - Blue Arrow Aerospace's IPO has been accepted, aiming to become the first commercial rocket company listed in China, following a successful launch of its reusable rocket [29] - Chinese electric vehicle brands achieved a record market share of 12.8% in Europe, with significant sales increases for companies like BYD and Chery [29] Financial Regulations - The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced a reduction in public fund subscription fees and sales service fees, with no sales service fees for fund shares held for over a year [18]

Core Insights - The event "The 13th Annual Gathering of Guizhou People" was held to discuss cooperation and development opportunities, with nearly 200 representatives from business associations and enterprises attending [1][2] - The theme of the event was "Integrating New Opportunities, Serving a New Future," focusing on building a modern industrial system in Guiyang and Guian [1] Group 1: Industrial Development - Guiyang and Guian aim to strengthen six major industrial clusters, including a 300 billion-level digital intelligence industry cluster and a 200 billion-level quality mineral processing industry cluster [1] - The plan includes developing 1 billion-level advanced equipment, new energy materials, and specialty light industry clusters, along with a 500 billion-level emerging and future industry cluster [1] Group 2: Service Industry Focus - The region will focus on both productive and life service industries, promoting sectors such as modern logistics, financial services, and cultural tourism [2] - A platform for showcasing and connecting businesses was established during the event, highlighting the commitment to high-quality development in the modern service industry [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to enhance its construction and operational efficiency in 2026, focusing on policy implementation and attracting global resources to achieve tangible results from its established systems [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Development Strategies - The Hainan government aims to achieve a "good start" in the first year of the Free Trade Port's operation by ensuring smooth and efficient operations while accelerating the implementation of precise policies [1]. - A modern industrial system will be constructed to enhance industrial synergy, focusing on zero tariffs to expand the industrial chain and promote high-value manufacturing [2]. - Effective demand will be expanded to stimulate domestic consumption and investment, leveraging the large market size and integrating various policies [2]. Group 2: Open Economy and Reforms - High-level openness will be promoted to align with Southeast Asia's industrial upgrade needs, implementing measures to empower global supply chain construction [2]. - Key reforms in state-owned enterprises and resource allocation will be pursued to create a first-class business environment, emphasizing integrity and smart governance [2][3]. - Urban-rural integration and regional collaboration will be advanced to promote new urbanization and rural revitalization [2]. Group 3: Environmental and Social Initiatives - Ecological civilization construction will be prioritized to protect the environment, with measures for ecological supervision and landmark projects [2]. - Social welfare initiatives will be implemented to enhance public services in education, healthcare, and social support systems [2][3]. Group 4: Initial Outcomes and International Cooperation - Since the full island closure on December 18, 2025, the Free Trade Port has seen a stable operation with significant initial outcomes, including over 11.21 million inbound and outbound travelers [4]. - Hainan is learning from established free trade ports like Hong Kong and Singapore, fostering mutually beneficial relationships and cooperation agreements [5]. Group 5: Business Environment Improvements - Historical issues in the business environment are being addressed, with a high resolution rate of over 75% for identified problems since 2025 [6]. - Measures to prevent new issues and enhance service mechanisms for enterprises are being implemented [6]. Group 6: Duty-Free Shopping Policies - The range of zero-tariff goods has expanded significantly, covering over 6,600 tax items, and personal consumers can purchase duty-free items through various policies [7]. - Three forms of duty-free shopping are available for personal consumers, including offshore duty-free shopping and policies for residents [7]. Group 7: Financial Support for Development - Financial support for the Free Trade Port is robust, with an expected loan growth rate of around 11.5% and a focus on cross-border financial policies [8]. - The financial system aims to enhance support for leading industries and promote the internationalization of the Renminbi while managing financial risks [8].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the foreign exchange market, particularly the performance of the Chinese Yuan (CNY) against the US Dollar (USD) and other currencies during the year-end period of 2025. Core Insights and Arguments - The US Dollar Index stabilized around 98, with market liquidity significantly weakened during the Christmas week. Despite the US Q3 GDP data exceeding expectations, concerns about the labor market persist, supporting high expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][2]. - Non-USD currencies experienced gains, with the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Norwegian Krone, and Canadian Dollar appreciating by 1.57%, 1.37%, 1.34%, and 0.95% respectively. The British Pound rose by 0.88%, while the Euro saw a modest increase of 0.5% [1][2]. - The Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.75% following a dovish rate hike by the Bank of Japan in December [1]. - The offshore Yuan broke the 7.0 mark, indicating a strong appreciation trend, influenced by a weak USD and increased year-end settlement demand [4][5]. Important but Overlooked Content - The report highlights that the appreciation of the Yuan is supported by seasonal factors, but the pace of appreciation is limited by the central bank's policies aimed at stabilizing the exchange rate [5][6]. - The central bank's recent adjustments to the midpoint exchange rate and the highest recorded scale of counter-cyclical factor adjustments (301 pips) indicate a strong effort to manage the Yuan's appreciation rate [5]. - The report anticipates that after a short-term strong performance, the Yuan's appreciation rate may flatten out, with a potential stabilization around the 7.0 level in early 2026 [6]. - Upcoming economic data releases from both the US and China, including the FOMC minutes and China's PMI, are expected to influence market sentiment and the Yuan's trajectory [6]. Market Predictions - The forecast for the CNY/USD exchange rate for the upcoming week is set between 7.00 and 7.03, indicating continued appreciation [3]. - The Euro/USD exchange rate is predicted to range between 1.1750 and 1.1840, with potential for volatility based on economic performance and central bank policies [7][8]. Conclusion - The foreign exchange market is expected to remain stable as liquidity remains low during the holiday season. The focus will be on the Yuan's performance and the effectiveness of the central bank's stabilization policies as the year concludes [2][6].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion centers around the U.S. inflation outlook for 2026 and its implications for monetary policy and commodity trading strategies [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Inflation Expectations**: There is a general expectation of economic slowdown, but opinions on inflation vary. If inflation pressure rises significantly in 2026 while the economy weakens, it could lead to stagflation, impacting the Federal Reserve's ability to cut rates and potentially leading to a tightening of policies [1][2]. 2. **Commodity Performance**: Recent strong performance in commodities like gold and copper is noted, with expectations that oil prices may rise in 2026, contingent on inflation trends in the U.S. and abroad. However, if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) does not rise sufficiently, the trading logic for commodities will change [1][2]. 3. **CPI Predictions**: The forecast for 2026 indicates that the CPI is unlikely to show sustained upward pressure, suggesting minimal inflation. Factors contributing to this include limited policy stimulus effects, high U.S. Treasury yields, insufficient fiscal stimulus, and a diminishing impact of AI investments on GDP growth [1][4]. 4. **Core Commodity Prices**: The rebound in core commodity prices is attributed to low base effects and tariffs, with expectations that these prices will not see significant increases in 2026 as these factors fade [5][6]. 5. **Supply-Side Focus**: It is recommended to focus on supply-side disruptions for investment opportunities rather than relying on demand-side driven commodity trading [5][11]. Additional Important Content 1. **Tariff Impact**: The impact of tariffs on prices is characterized as one-time, affecting absolute prices rather than growth rates. The peak influence of tariffs is believed to have passed, with expectations of declining month-on-month growth rates, potentially exerting downward pressure on inflation [6][7]. 2. **Service Sector Stability**: The service sector, which constitutes about 70% of core CPI, is expected to remain stable due to its lagging nature. Factors such as housing, healthcare, and auto insurance costs are linked to overall societal cost trends, which have been declining [9]. 3. **Labor Market Dynamics**: The current labor market does not exhibit significant pressure, with no signs of a wage-price spiral. Job vacancies have decreased, and the labor participation rate has increased, leading to a situation where the number of job seekers exceeds available positions [10]. 4. **Investment Recommendations**: Caution is advised in selecting trading strategies, with a preference for commodities like gold, copper, and oil, aligned with anticipated Federal Reserve policy adjustments [11]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and forecasts regarding the U.S. inflation outlook and its implications for monetary policy and commodity markets in 2026.

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of non-performing asset portfolios by Huaxing Capital Holdings is expected to provide significant investment returns as the market continues to recover, with confidence in the collection of a substantial portion of the debts over time [1][2]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Huaxing Capital Holdings plans to acquire two non-performing asset portfolios from Fuzhou Qifu Financing Guarantee Co., Ltd. and Fuzhou Qifu Microloan Co., Ltd. for approximately RMB 277.1 million and RMB 31.2 million, respectively [1]. - The first portfolio (Portfolio I) has an outstanding principal balance of approximately RMB 6.677 billion as of December 1, 2025, with an average overdue period of 854 days, and 20% of the debts overdue for one to two years [1]. - The second portfolio (Portfolio II) has an outstanding principal balance of approximately RMB 752 million as of December 1, 2025, with an average overdue period of 439 days, and 38% of the debts overdue for one to two years [1]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The acquisition is expected to expand the company's self-operated investment scope and enhance investment returns, creating value for shareholders as the recovery value may exceed the purchase price over time [2]. - The company anticipates that the inclusion of credit-related assets will diversify its revenue sources, with expectations of ongoing income and increased cash flow from the recovered amounts in the future [2].

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of non-performing asset portfolios by Huaxing Capital Holdings is expected to provide significant investment returns as the market continues to recover, with confidence in the recovery of a substantial portion of the debts over time [1][2]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Huaxing Capital Holdings plans to acquire two non-performing asset portfolios from Fuzhou Qifu Financing Guarantee Co., Ltd. and Fuzhou Qifu Microloan Co., Ltd. for approximately RMB 277.1 million and RMB 31.2 million, respectively [1]. - The first portfolio (Non-performing Asset Portfolio I) has an outstanding principal balance of approximately RMB 6.677 billion, with an average overdue period of 854 days, and 20% of the debts overdue for one to two years [1]. - The second portfolio (Non-performing Asset Portfolio II) has an outstanding principal balance of approximately RMB 752 million, with an average overdue period of 439 days, and 38% of the debts overdue for one to two years [1]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The acquisition is expected to expand the company's self-operated investment scope and enhance investment returns, creating value for shareholders as the recovery value may exceed the purchase price over time [2]. - The company anticipates that the asset portfolios will diversify its income sources through increased credit-related assets, leading to sustained revenue and improved cash flow from future recoveries [2].

责任编辑：王许宁 2025年英国短期与长期国债收益率差扩大。英国央行在当年连续四次降息，将基准利率下调至3.75%， 推动两年期国债收益率走低。相比之下，长期国债收益率却有所上升，部分原因在于市场对英国财政状 况的担忧，同时也可归因于美日两国长期国债收益率因政府债务高企而攀升的传导效应。伦敦证券交易 所集团数据显示，30年期国债收益率于9月触及5.752%，创27年新高。当前该收益率交易于5.205%，而 年初水平为5.144%。相比之下，两年期国债收益率目前为3.712%，低于2025年初的4.395%。 责任编辑：王许宁 2025年英国短期与长期国债收益率差扩大。英国央行在当年连续四次降息，将基准利率下调至3.75%， 推动两年期国债收益率走低。相比之下，长期国债收益率却有所上升，部分原因在于市场对英国财政状 况的担忧，同时也可归因于美日两国长期国债收益率因政府债务高企而攀升的传导效应。伦敦证券交易 所集团数据显示，30年期国债收益率于9月触及5.752%，创27年新高。当前该收益率交易于5.205%，而 年初水平为5.144%。相比之下，两年期国债收益率目前为3.712%，低于2025年初的4.395% ...