🇺🇸 $3 TRILLION GOLDMAN SACHS EXPECTS THE FED TO START CUTTING RATES IN SEPTEMBER. ...

🇺🇸 $3 TRILLION GOLDMAN SACHS EXPECTS THE FED TO START CUTTING RATES IN SEPTEMBER. ...

Core Viewpoint - StoneX Group Inc. has successfully completed the acquisition of The Benchmark Company, enhancing its capital markets capabilities and establishing a stronger presence in investment banking and equity research [1][2]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition was initially announced on March 11, 2025, and adds a complementary suite of capabilities to StoneX's existing offerings [2]. - Benchmark is recognized for its strong client relationships in high-growth sectors such as Technology, Industrials, Consumer, and Healthcare [2]. Group 2: Strategic Fit and Integration - Benchmark's seasoned investment banking team and professionals across institutional sales, trading, and equity research will integrate into StoneX's Institutional division [3]. - The Benchmark brand will be maintained in the near term to ensure continuity for clients and counterparties [3]. Group 3: Leadership Insights - Jacob Rappaport, Global Head of Equities at StoneX, expressed excitement about the acquisition, highlighting the strategic step in broadening capital markets capabilities [3]. - Richard Messina, Founder and CEO of Benchmark, noted that joining StoneX allows for scaling reach and leveraging a global cross-asset product platform [4]. Group 4: Company Overview - StoneX Group Inc. operates a global financial services network, connecting clients to the markets through digital platforms, clearing and execution services, and deep expertise [5]. - The company serves over 54,000 commercial, institutional, and payments clients, as well as more than 400,000 retail accounts across over 70 offices on six continents [6].

The start of August witnessed a shift in market momentum. The S&P 500, which had recorded six successive all-time highs, entered a four-day losing streak. The decline was caused by soft jobs data and rising unemployment, along with new tariffs announced by President Donald Trump targeting U.S. trading partners.However, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs believe that this could be an entry point to the market. Let’s delve a little deeper. SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) , which fell on Aug. 1, 2025, rebounded on ...

4 August 2025 | 10:30AM EDT Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 2. Negative payroll revisions can occur for three reasons. First, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) receives responses from only about 60% of establishments in time for the first preliminary release and assumes they are representative of the remaining 40%. But in a weakening economy, late responders are more likely to be firms under economic pressure that are cutting jobs. Second, the seasonal factors are re-estimated with each ...

Core Viewpoint - In the first seven months of 2025, A-shares saw 59 companies listed, a year-on-year increase of 18.00%, with a total fundraising net amount of 544.21 billion yuan, up 63.83% from the previous year [2] Group 1: Listing and Fundraising - A total of 59 new companies were listed, comprising 14 on the Shanghai Main Board, 8 on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, 8 on the Shenzhen Main Board, 22 on the Growth Enterprise Market, and 7 on the Beijing Stock Exchange [2] - The net fundraising amount of these companies reached 544.21 billion yuan, compared to 332.18 billion yuan in the same period last year [2] Group 2: Fees Charged by Intermediaries - The total fees charged by IPO intermediaries for these 59 companies amounted to 43.90 billion yuan, with underwriting and sponsorship fees at 30.22 billion yuan, legal fees at 4.48 billion yuan, and audit fees at 9.20 billion yuan [2] - The ranking of underwriting and sponsorship fees by board is as follows: Growth Enterprise Market, Shanghai Main Board, Sci-Tech Innovation Board, Shenzhen Main Board, and Beijing Stock Exchange [3] Group 3: Average Fees by Board - The average underwriting and sponsorship fee is highest in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board at 68.96 million yuan, while the lowest is in the Beijing Stock Exchange at 22.63 million yuan [6] - The average legal fee is highest in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board at 8.30 million yuan, and the lowest in the Beijing Stock Exchange at 3.63 million yuan [6] - The average audit fee is highest in the Shanghai Main Board at 21.17 million yuan, and the lowest in the Beijing Stock Exchange at 5.29 million yuan [6] Group 4: Top Intermediaries - CITIC Securities ranked first in total underwriting and sponsorship fees at 3.28 billion yuan, followed by Guotai Junan and CITIC Jianzhong at 3.28 billion yuan and 3.17 billion yuan respectively [8] - The top three law firms by total fees are Shanghai Jintiancheng, Beijing Zhonglun, and Zhejiang Tiance, with total fees of 66.14 million yuan, 46.18 million yuan, and 35.24 million yuan respectively [11] - The top three accounting firms by total fees are Rongcheng, Tianjian, and Ernst & Young Huaming, with total fees of 1.77 billion yuan, 1.53 billion yuan, and 1.33 billion yuan respectively [14]

Group 1 - The role of investment managers is likened to a navigator of a large ship, requiring both a broad vision and precise execution [1] - The capability pyramid consists of three core levels: foundational hard skills, breakthrough soft skills, and upgraded vision [1] - Essential skills include financial modeling, industry analysis frameworks, regulatory knowledge, data analysis, communication techniques, risk assessment, team coordination, market trend awareness, and innovation tools [1] Group 2 - A growth roadmap emphasizes systematic learning, foundational certifications, practical experience, professional depth, resource networking, cognitive leaps, international perspectives, ecological operations, and strategic empowerment [1] - The CDA certification is highlighted as a key asset in the era of AI-driven capital markets, enhancing data-driven decision-making capabilities [2] - Continuous evolution is essential for investment managers, with a focus on lifelong learning as a means to build a sustainable competitive advantage [2] Group 3 - Data-driven decision-making is crucial, with a focus on extracting investment signals from vast market data [3] - Mastery of modern analytical tools like Python and Power BI is necessary for effective financial analysis [3] - The CDA certification is favored by top firms, with 54% of certificate holders achieving cross-domain promotions, particularly towards investment director roles [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global financial markets, particularly equities, fixed income, currencies, and commodities, as analyzed by Morgan Stanley Research. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Equity Market Forecasts**: - S&P 500 is projected to have a base case return of 3.0% with a bear case of -22.1% and a bull case of 13.9% for Q2 2026 [2][2][2]. - MSCI Europe shows a similar trend with a base case return of 5.5% and a bear case of -23.6% [2][2][2]. - Emerging Markets (MSCI EM) are forecasted to have a bear case return of -28.3% and a base case of -2.0% [2][2][2]. 2. **Fixed Income Insights**: - UST 10-year yields are expected to return 12.4% in the base case, with a bear case of 8.0% [2][2][2]. - The report indicates a significant increase in US capital goods, reaching their highest FPE levels since 2020 [6][6][6]. 3. **Currency Forecasts**: - The JPY/USD is projected to strengthen to 130 in the bull case, while the EUR/USD is expected to reach 1.25 [2][2][2]. - The GBP/USD is forecasted to rise to 1.45 in the bull case [2][2][2]. 4. **Commodities Outlook**: - Brent crude oil is expected to have a bear case return of -24.4% with a base case of -9.3% [2][2][2]. - Gold is projected to return 0.9% in the base case, with a bull case of 21.1% [2][2][2]. 5. **Market Sentiment**: - The Morgan Stanley Market Sentiment Indicator (MSI) reflects a negative sentiment, indicating market stress [57][57][57]. - The report highlights that the US equity risk premium remains negative, suggesting a cautious outlook for equities [9][9][9]. Additional Important Insights 1. **ETF Flows**: - The report tracks daily fund flows across approximately 5,000 ETFs globally, covering around $7 trillion in assets, indicating a comprehensive analysis of market sentiment and positioning [20][20][20]. 2. **Cross-Asset Correlations**: - The current correlation index stands at 43%, with equity correlations at 73%, indicating a strong relationship among equity assets [73][73][73]. 3. **Positioning Summary**: - In US equities, asset managers hold a net long position of 29%, while hedge funds are net short by 10% [65][65][65]. - In commodities, gold shows a net long position of 32% among asset managers [65][65][65]. 4. **Valuation Framework**: - The COVA scorecard identifies good portfolio diversifiers, emphasizing assets with negative correlations to equities and attractive valuations [79][79][79]. 5. **Market Movements**: - Japan's 2-year yields experienced a significant move higher, indicating volatility in the fixed income market [6][6][6]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape as analyzed by Morgan Stanley Research.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the macroeconomic outlook for the United States and its impact on various asset classes, including equities, fixed income, and commodities, particularly gold. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act on US Growth** - The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) is expected to have a minimal impact on US growth, with a projected fiscal impulse of only 0.4% to real GDP in 2026 and 0.2% in 2027. After 2029, it is anticipated to become a drag on growth due to front-loaded fiscal deficits [13][18][22] 2. **Performance of US Risky Assets Amid Tepid Growth** - Despite expectations of slow growth in the US, risky assets such as equities may perform well. Historical data suggests that US equity fundamentals can diverge from nominal GDP, and a weaker dollar could provide additional support [18][22] 3. **Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and the US Dollar** - FDI inflows from recent trade deals are not expected to significantly strengthen the US Dollar. Historically, FDI has contributed little to the US financial account, typically ranging between -1% and +1% of GDP. Portfolio flows are the primary driver of USD movements [3][22][24] 4. **China's Economic Growth Outlook** - Despite a strong 2Q GDP report from China, the outlook for the second half of the year remains cautious. Factors such as weaker exports, fading fiscal support, and persistent deflation are expected to hinder growth [26][27] 5. **Gold Price Outlook** - Gold is expected to continue rallying due to macroeconomic tailwinds and favorable technicals. A weaker dollar and robust physical demand, including significant purchases by central banks, are likely to support gold prices [4][28][29] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The fiscal multipliers associated with the OBBBA are low due to the nature of its policies, with expansionary measures expiring by 2029 and contractionary policies having high multipliers [13][16] - The correlation between earnings growth and nominal GDP growth can show persistent deviations, indicating that equities may perform better than expected even in a slow growth environment [18][20] - The anticipated slowdown in China's growth is compounded by tariff risks and limited fiscal space, which could further impact global trade dynamics [26][27] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, highlighting the macroeconomic environment and its implications for various asset classes.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese export and import market** for Q2 2025, highlighting the impact of US tariffs on trade dynamics [7][8]. Core Insights Export Performance - **Export Growth**: Chinese exports showed resilience with an **8.6% year-on-year growth** in real terms for Q2 2025, down from **10.1% in Q1** [7]. - **Nominal Growth**: Nominal exports grew by **6.0% year-on-year** in Q2, compared to **5.5% in Q1** [7]. - **Price Decline**: A broad-based decline in export prices affected nominal growth, particularly in categories like transportation equipment and mechanical machinery, which saw the highest real growth [7][17]. - **US Exports Decline**: Exports to the US fell significantly, down **23.9% year-on-year** in Q2 [7][15]. - **Future Outlook**: Export growth is expected to slow in the second half of the year as the full impact of tariffs materializes [7]. Import Dynamics - **Import Trends**: Chinese nominal imports decreased by **0.9% year-on-year** in Q2, driven by falling import prices, while volume increased by **0.5% year-on-year** [7][26]. - **Sector Variability**: Real growth was strongest in mechanical machinery and weakest in textiles/apparel [7]. - **US Imports Decline**: Imports from the US dropped by **15.8% year-on-year** in Q2 due to higher tariffs [7][31]. - **Price Changes**: Import prices for stone/glass/metals rose by **11.9% year-on-year**, while mineral prices (mostly crude oil) fell by **12.5% year-on-year** [7][35]. Trade Surplus Outlook - **Goods Trade Surplus**: The goods trade surplus is projected to increase to **4.9% of GDP in 2025**, up from **4.1% in 2024** [7][42]. - **Revised Growth Projections**: Total goods export volume growth is revised to **5.9% in 2025** and **0.7% in 2026**, while total import volume is expected to decline by **1.2% in 2025** and **0.7% in 2026** [7][42]. Additional Insights - **Market Share Changes**: China is gaining market share in emerging markets while losing share in the US [21]. - **Export-Related Investment**: Exports and export-related investments contributed roughly half of real GDP growth in Q2 [13]. - **New Export Orders**: The new export orders sub-index dropped in both Caixin and NBS manufacturing PMIs in Q2 compared to Q1 [24]. This summary encapsulates the key findings and projections regarding China's trade performance in Q2 2025, emphasizing the resilience of exports despite external pressures and the nuanced dynamics of imports.