Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in precious and industrial metal markets, particularly gold and silver, has led to increased interest in copper investments, despite concerns about the legitimacy and risks associated with copper bars as investment products [2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold and silver prices have reached new highs, while domestic copper prices have surpassed 100,000 yuan per ton, leading to heightened investor interest in copper [2]. - In Shenzhen, the largest gold and jewelry distribution center in China, merchants have begun offering pure copper 999.9 investment bars, primarily in 1000-gram specifications, priced around 200 yuan each [2]. Group 2: Investment Risks - Analysts warn that the current "copper bar craze" is more of a speculative trend rather than a legitimate investment opportunity, with concerns about the lack of standardized recovery channels for copper bars [2][4]. - The comparison of copper bars to gold and silver investments is misleading, as copper is an industrial metal with different pricing dynamics, making the assumption of significant returns unrealistic [3][4]. Group 3: Investment Alternatives - Investors are advised to consider alternative methods for investing in copper, such as copper ETFs, stocks of leading copper mining companies, or direct investments in copper futures and options, which may offer more reliable returns [5]. - The investment landscape for copper is evolving, with personal investors encouraged to explore various avenues that align with their risk tolerance and investment goals [5]. Group 4: Future Price Outlook - Market sentiment regarding copper prices is mixed, with some analysts predicting short-term price corrections due to macroeconomic factors, while others anticipate long-term upward trends driven by demand from sectors like electric power and renewable energy [6][7]. - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its copper price forecast for the first half of 2026, citing structural tensions in the market, while also warning of potential price corrections in the latter half of the year as U.S. tariff policies become clearer [8].

Performance Summary - The Massif Capital Real Assets Strategy achieved a 9.6% net return in Q4 2025, resulting in a full-year performance of 50.0% net of fees [2] - Gross gains from the long book were 13.3%, while the short book detracted 1.64% [2] - The strategy has a since-inception annualized return of 15.6% net of fees over 28 consecutive quarters [2] Key Contributors - Equinox Gold (EQX) was the largest contributor, adding 11.8% to the portfolio, followed by G-Mining Ventures (GMINF) at 10.1% and Lundin Mining (LUNMF) at 8.6% [3] - Gold equities were the dominant source of returns, contributing 23.7% to the portfolio, with base and critical metals close behind at 19.5% [4] Sector Performance - Oil and natural gas holdings generated a modest positive contribution of 1.5%, primarily from dividend income [4] - Sector-level losses were confined to industrials, while gold equities and base metals showed strong performance [4] Market Sentiment - The equity market enters 2026 with a constructive tone, though a sizable bearish minority remains, indicating mixed investor sentiment [5][6] - Investor conviction is heavily tilted toward US equities, despite strong global performance, with expectations of US outperformance dominating [6] Geopolitical and Economic Context - Concerns about long-term monetary and fiscal policy trajectories, as well as geopolitical instability, are influencing investor behavior [8][9] - Central bank gold accumulation, particularly from emerging markets and China, is expected to continue, reinforcing gold's role as a monetary asset [9] Oil Market Outlook - Oil enters 2026 with bearish sentiment, influenced by geopolitical risks and a surplus market [10][32] - The International Energy Agency estimates that global oil production could decline by approximately 5.5 mb/d annually without new investment [38] Copper Market Dynamics - Copper miners and developers represent the largest single investment theme, with core holdings showing significant gains [43] - The copper market is characterized by structural tightness due to supply constraints and strong demand dynamics, with spot treatment charges collapsing to record lows [44][45] Portfolio Adjustments - The portfolio's exposure to gold has narrowed, with a single 10% position in Equinox Gold, which rose 179% in 2025 [26] - The company is actively searching for another gold miner that meets its investment criteria [31] Future Investment Strategy - The company anticipates a shift towards a more eclectic mix of real-asset businesses, including opportunities in wind power and niche chemical manufacturers [58] - A rebalancing away from a mining-centric portfolio is expected as the current commodity upswing broadens [57]

Group 1 - The proposed merger between Rio Tinto and Glencore may face significant regulatory challenges, particularly in China, potentially requiring asset sales for approval [1][2] - The current proposal involves an all-share acquisition, with Rio Tinto potentially acquiring "some or all" of Glencore [2] - China's regulators are expected to scrutinize the potential market dominance of a combined Rio Tinto-Glencore entity in the copper and iron ore sectors [3] Group 2 - Demand for copper assets is increasing due to their importance in the green energy transition and AI technologies, prompting both companies to shift focus towards copper [4] - The rising significance of copper is also reflected in other industry activities, such as Anglo American and Teck Resources planning a $53 billion merger, which will also require Chinese regulatory scrutiny [4] - Rio Tinto is considering an asset-for-equity swap to reduce the 11% stake held by its largest shareholder, Chinalco, with assets of interest including the Simandou iron ore mine and the Oyu Tolgoi copper project [3]

Core Insights - Armory Mining Corp. is focused on the exploration and development of minerals critical to the energy, security, and defense sectors, with updates on exploration activities scheduled through Q2 2026 [1] Group 1: Ammo Gold-Antimony Project - The company has engaged Castello Q Exploration Corp to conduct an initial phase one work program at its 100% owned Ammo Antimony-Gold project in Nova Scotia, Canada [2] - The Ammo project spans 3,092 hectares and is contiguous to the historical West Gore antimony-gold mine, which produced significant quantities of antimony and gold during World War I [3] - Historical production records indicate nearly 32,000 metric tons of output from 1914-1917, yielding over 7,000 metric tons of antimony concentrate with a grade of 46% and a total of 6,861 ounces of gold recovered [4] - The initial work program will include data compilation, prospecting, reconnaissance, detailed surface sampling, and geophysics, with a budget of up to $656,000 CAD for this phase [5][6] Group 2: Candela II Lithium Deposit - The company is advancing its Candela II lithium brine project located in the Incahuasi Salar, Salta Province, Argentina, with a scoping study underway to evaluate its technical viability and economic potential [9][10] - The Candela II project has an inferred resource of 457,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate in-situ, as estimated by WSP Australia [10] - The lithium carbonate price has increased by 30% since the start of the year, reaching a two-year high, highlighting the project's significance for the company [11] - The project is situated in the 'Lithium Triangle,' an area known for lithium production, with Ganfeng Lithium, Rio Tinto, and Power Minerals operating nearby [12] Group 3: Company Overview - Armory Mining Corp. holds an 80% interest in the Candela II lithium brine project and 100% interest in both the Ammo antimony-gold project and the Riley Creek antimony-gold project located in British Columbia [14]

期铜自周三创下13,407美元的纪录新高以来下跌5%。 | | 1月16日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 | 张跃 张跃幅 | | 三个月期铜 | | 12,803.00 -303.00 -2.31% | | 三个月期铝 | 3.134.00 ↓ | -33.50 -1.06% | | 三个月期锌 | | 3.209.00 -105.50 -3.18% | | 三个月期铅 | 2,044.00 ↓ | -55.50 -2.64% | | 三个月期镇 | 17.578.00 - - 991.00 - 5.34% | | | 三个月期锡 | 47.982.00 J -4.049.00 J -7.78% | | 高价抑制铜需求 1月16日（周五），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜触及一周最低，市场在投机基金推动的一轮涨势后出 现获利了结，且实货买家的需求低迷。 伦敦时间1月16日17:00(北京时间1月17日01:00)，LME三个月期铜下跌303美元，或2.31%，收报每吨 12,803.0美元。此前触及12,696美元的1月9日以来最低。 ...

Summary of CMOC 2026 Business Outlook Call Company Overview - **Company**: CMOC (China Molybdenum Co., Ltd.) - **Stock Ticker**: 3993.HK - **Market Cap**: HK$481,372 million (US$61,744 million) [7] Key Industry Insights Copper and Cobalt Production - **Copper Output**: - Achieved 741,000 tons (kt) in 2025, exceeding early guidance due to stable power supply in DRC for TFM and KFM projects, and technology upgrades for TFM [1][3] - Implied copper output for Q4 2025 was 198kt, representing a 4% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) increase [1][3] - Output guidance for 2026 is set at 760-820kt [1][3] - **Cobalt Output**: - Recorded 25.8 tons (t) in Q4 2025, a decrease of 16% QoQ [1][3] - Output guidance for 2026 is projected at 100-120kt [1][3] Financial Performance - **Net Profit Forecast**: - Expected net profit for 2025 is between RMB 20.0 billion and RMB 20.8 billion, marking an increase of 47.8%-53.7% year-over-year (YoY) [2] - Implied net profit for Q4 2025 is estimated at RMB 5.72-6.52 billion, reflecting a YoY increase of 9%-24% and a QoQ increase of 2%-16% [2] Strategic Developments Acquisition Plans - CMOC anticipates completing the acquisition of gold assets in Brazil from Equinox Gold in Q1 2026, with full-year output guidance for these assets estimated at 6-8t [4] Expansion Projects - **KFM Phase 2 Project**: Expected to achieve an average output of 100kt per annum during its mine life, operational by 2027 [6] - **TFM Expansion**: Feasibility study is being finalized, with potential to meet the lower limit of copper output guidance in 2028 (0.8-1.0 million tons) depending on the scale and timing of the expansion [6] Regulatory and Market Considerations Cobalt Quota Policy - CMOC's cobalt quota for KFM and TFM is set at 6.5kt for Q4 2025 and 312kt for 2026. Cobalt exports have not fully resumed, limiting contributions to Q1 2026 profits due to a ~3-month transportation period [5] Risks and Challenges - **Key Risks**: - Slowing grid investment in China [10][12] - Worse-than-expected real estate investment in China, potentially reducing copper demand and prices [10][12] - Acceleration of global mine supply impacting market dynamics [10][12] Valuation and Investment Outlook - **Target Price**: - DCF valuation yields a target price of HK$20.60, with an expected share price return of -8.4% and a dividend yield of 1.8% [7][9] - **Total Expected Return**: -6.7% [7] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from CMOC's 2026 Business Outlook Call, highlighting production forecasts, financial performance, strategic initiatives, and associated risks within the mining sector.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference highlighted bullish sentiment in the market, particularly regarding US GDP growth and global equity returns for 2026, indicating a positive outlook for various sectors [1][41]. - The Multi-Industry Capex Tracker was discussed, focusing on capital expenditure trends across approximately 4,000 companies, with a significant portion of growth driven by AI-related markets [2][26]. Core Insights and Arguments - **US GDP Growth Expectations**: Over 80% of surveyed clients anticipate US GDP growth to be around or above the consensus estimate of 2.1% for 2026, with recession fears diminishing [1][41]. - **Global Equity Returns**: 82% of clients expect positive global equity returns in 2026, with 42% forecasting double-digit gains, marking the highest expectations recorded [1][41]. - **Capex Growth**: The Multi-Industry Capex Tracker was revised upward to reflect a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8% from 2025 to 2028, with 32% of this growth attributed to AI-driven end markets such as data centers and semiconductors [2][26]. - **China Competition**: A webcast was planned to discuss the implications of competition from China, integrating macroeconomic perspectives with sector-specific insights from chemicals, autos, and pharmaceuticals [3][11]. Additional Important Content - **Earnings Focus**: Upcoming earnings reports were highlighted, including companies like Wise, Alstom, and Rio Tinto, with specific buy/sell recommendations provided [4][6]. - **Sector-Specific Insights**: The report included insights on various sectors, such as logistics, where DSV was identified as a top pick due to its adaptability and potential for AI productivity gains [15][20]. - **Market Sentiment**: The overall sentiment from the Global Strategy Conference indicated strong economic activity and a preference for emerging markets, reflecting a risk-on positioning among investors [1][41]. - **Regulatory and Economic Updates**: The report touched on regulatory changes and their potential impacts on various sectors, including the implications of proposed credit card regulations in the US [31][46]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, providing insights into market expectations, sector trends, and specific company outlooks.

Core Viewpoint - The potential merger between Rio Tinto and Glencore could create a significant player in the mining sector, valued at approximately $260 billion, enhancing their capabilities in copper and other metals markets amid rising demand and limited supply growth [7]. Group 1: Merger Discussions - Rio Tinto and Glencore are in preliminary discussions about a possible merger, which have gained traction following BHP Group's decision to rule out a competing bid [5]. - The merger talks reflect a broader trend of consolidation in the mining sector as companies seek to manage rising costs and tighter capital conditions [2][12]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Demand for copper is increasing due to its applications in power grids, electric vehicles, and renewable energy systems, while supply growth is constrained by underinvestment and higher development costs [3]. - Copper prices have surged over 25% in the past three months, reaching record levels above $13,000 per tonne, with low inventories and rising production costs [10]. Group 3: Strategic Advantages - Glencore's strong commodity marketing and trading operations would provide Rio Tinto with capabilities it currently lacks, enhancing its competitive position in the copper market [1][11]. - The merger could allow for the separation of Glencore's coal assets, potentially unlocking shareholder value by focusing on a cleaner metals business [8][9]. Group 4: Regulatory Considerations - Any merger would face scrutiny from regulators in Australia and Europe, particularly regarding copper concentration and Glencore's trading business [15]. Group 5: Operational Differences - The operational models of Rio Tinto and Glencore differ significantly, with Glencore focusing on trading and risk management, while Rio emphasizes long-life mining assets [16].

Company Overview - Southern Copper Corporation (NYSE:SCCO) is engaged in mining, smelting, and refining copper, and also processes other materials such as molybdenum, zinc, silver, gold, and sulfuric acid [2]. Stock Performance - The stock has experienced a significant increase, being up 25% this year and showing a parabolic move with a recent increase of $5 in a single day [1]. - The current yield of the stock is 1.98%, which is considered low given its recent performance [1]. Analyst Insights - Wells Fargo has raised the price target for Southern Copper's stock from $144 to $182 while maintaining an Equal-Weight rating, indicating a cautious outlook on the stock's future performance [2]. - The firm anticipates strong performance in copper and aluminum in 2026 due to limited new supply in the first half of the year, alongside expectations that tariffs on steel and aluminum imports will remain in place, keeping US prices elevated [3]. Investment Considerations - While Southern Copper is recognized for its potential, there are suggestions that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk, indicating a competitive investment landscape [4].

2026 年 1 月 18 日 镍：印尼言论反复扰动，镍价宽幅震荡运行 不锈钢：盘面锚定矿端矛盾，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 本轮资金面对镍与不锈钢的关注度提高，本质在于消息面的变化，主要包括：印尼镍矿配额的 2.5 亿 吨目标，以及考虑将伴生矿物，如钴，纳入计价和征税体系，以及违规开采镍矿罚款，具体来看： 1）配额事件：1 月 8 日印尼能矿部表示配额将根据行业需求进行调整，1 月 14 日接受采访时表示目 标或削减至 2.6 亿吨镍矿配额。2024-2025 年的配额量确实超过实际冶炼刚需量，2026 年对需求的重新 梳理和配额的重新审视仍在进行中，目前仍在等待具体政策落地前的真空期，预计一季度或将明确具体政 策。如果放眼到长周期，印尼防止过剩和挺价的心态是明确的，前期低价矿吸引冶炼的红利周期结束，在 冶炼端产能过剩后，政策面或出现周期性的转向。如果 1-12 月 2.6 亿吨的配额落地，那么矿端紧缺可能 倒逼冶炼端减产，从而将过剩预期扭转为紧缺，并对存量的高库存形成冲击，这也是二级市场对上方仍有 想象的核心锚点。不过，从印尼下游 ...