Market Performance - The oil service engineering sector increased by 0.65% on September 5, with Beiken Energy leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3812.51, up 1.24%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12590.56, up 3.89% [1] Stock Performance - Beiken Energy (002828) closed at 10.63, up 2.90% with a trading volume of 136,300 shares and a turnover of 143 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers included: - Qianeng Hengxin (300191) at 20.91, up 2.85% [1] - Daoxian Petroleum (300164) at 5.29, up 2.72% [1] - Renji Co., Ltd. (002629) at 7.17, up 2.28% [1] - Zhun Oil Co. (002207) at 7.57, up 2.16% [1] Capital Flow - The oil service engineering sector saw a net inflow of 43.6 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 56.1 million yuan [2][3] - The main stocks with significant capital flow included: - PetroChina Oilfield Services (600871) with a net inflow of 36.1 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - CNOOC Engineering (600583) with a net inflow of 35.8 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Zhun Oil Co. (002207) with a net inflow of 5.2 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Market Overview - On September 4, the oil service engineering sector declined by 1.05%, with Renji Co. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3765.88, down 1.25%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12118.7, down 2.83% [1] Stock Performance - Key stocks in the oil service engineering sector showed varied performance, with potential gains for some and losses for others: - Qianeng Hengxin (300191) closed at 20.33, up 1.40% with a trading volume of 65,300 shares [1] - Beiken Energy (002828) closed at 10.33, up 1.18% with a trading volume of 140,500 shares [1] - Other notable declines included: - Renji Co. (002629) down 8.33% [1] - Shihua Oil Service (600871) down 6.70% [2] Capital Flow - The oil service engineering sector experienced a net outflow of 123 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 85.91 million yuan [2] - Specific stock capital flows indicated: - Haiyou Engineering (600583) had a main fund net inflow of 28.32 million yuan [2] - Renji Co. (002629) faced a significant main fund net outflow of 9.67 million yuan [2] - The overall sentiment reflected a cautious approach from institutional investors while retail investors showed some interest [2]

Core Insights - The oil service engineering sector experienced a decline of 1.72% on September 3, with Junyou Co. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3813.56, down 1.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12472.0, down 0.65% [1] Sector Performance - The following companies in the oil service engineering sector showed varied performance: - Renji Co. (002629) closed at 7.27, up 0.69% with a trading volume of 250,300 shares and a transaction value of 183 million [1] - Junyou Co. (002207) led the decline with a closing price of 7.45, down 5.10% and a trading volume of 255,700 shares [2] - Other notable declines include: - Beiken Energy (002828) down 3.77% to 10.21 [2] - Zhongyou Engineering (600339) down 3.35% to 3.46 [2] - Huibo Yin (002554) down 2.76% to 2.82 [2] Capital Flow - The oil service engineering sector saw a net inflow of 38.35 million from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 36.91 million [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a maintained rating for the next six months [6][5]. Core Views - The company plans to raise 5.913 billion RMB through a private placement to its controlling shareholder, China National Petroleum Corporation, to strengthen its foundation in the Middle East market [1][4]. - The raised funds will be primarily used for project construction and to supplement working capital, including significant projects in Iraq and the UAE [2][4]. - The Iraq seawater pipeline project is expected to enhance the company's position in the Middle East, with a contract value of approximately 25.24 billion USD (about 180.32 billion RMB) [3][4]. - The fundraising is anticipated to improve the company's international competitiveness and support high-quality development, aligning with the Belt and Road Initiative [4]. Financial Data and Forecast - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 658.46 million RMB, 739.12 million RMB, and 800.75 million RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5]. - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 89.81 billion RMB, 93.53 billion RMB, and 97.18 billion RMB, reflecting growth rates of 4.54%, 4.13%, and 3.91% respectively [5][12]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.12 RMB, 0.13 RMB, and 0.14 RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [5][12].

Market Overview - The oil service engineering sector experienced a decline of 0.63% on September 2, with Huibo leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3858.13, down 0.45%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12553.84, down 2.14% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the oil service sector included: - Tongyuan Petroleum (300164) with a closing price of 5.42, up 2.07% [1] - Zhun Oil Co. (002207) at 7.85, up 1.82% [1] - Keli Co. (920088) at 38.84, up 1.65% [1] - Major decliners included: - Huibo (002554) at 2.90, down 6.75% [2] - Renji Co. (002629) at 7.22, down 4.24% [2] - CNOOC Development (600968) at 4.00, down 1.72% [2] Capital Flow - The oil service engineering sector saw a net outflow of 105 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 19.57 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for specific stocks showed: - Tongyuan Petroleum had a net outflow of 32.88 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Beiken Energy (002828) had a net inflow of 13.98 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - CNOOC Engineering (600339) experienced a net outflow of 3.86 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates monthly revenue and profit growth rates for the coal industry based on changes in price and capacity factors[10][15] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The pricing mechanism is determined by the last price index of the previous month, which sets the sales price for the next month[10] 2. The model uses year-on-year changes in price factors and capacity factors to estimate revenue and profit growth rates on a monthly basis[10] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to track and predict industry profitability trends, but it is sensitive to price fluctuations and external shocks[15] 2. Model Name: Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model predicts the supply-demand gap for hogs six months in advance based on the relationship between sow inventory and hog slaughter rates[16][17] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model assumes a stable proportional relationship between quarterly hog slaughter and sow inventory lagged by six months[16] 2. The formula for the slaughter coefficient is: $ \text{Slaughter Coefficient} = \frac{\text{Quarterly Hog Slaughter}}{\text{Sow Inventory (Lagged 6 Months)}} $[16] 3. The potential supply six months later is calculated as: $ \text{Potential Supply (t+6)} = \text{Sow Inventory (t)} \times \text{Slaughter Coefficient (t+6)} $[17] 4. The potential demand six months later is estimated using historical quarterly slaughter data[17] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies hog price cycles but relies heavily on the accuracy of historical slaughter coefficients[17] 3. Model Name: Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model predicts monthly profit growth and per-ton profitability for the steel industry by integrating steel prices and raw material costs[19] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model incorporates comprehensive steel prices and costs of raw materials such as iron ore, coke, pulverized coal, and scrap steel[19] 2. Monthly profit growth rates and per-ton profitability are calculated based on these inputs[19] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a detailed view of profitability trends but may not fully capture external demand-side factors[23] 4. Model Name: Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model tracks profitability changes in the glass and cement industries using price and cost indicators, and generates allocation signals based on these changes[25] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model monitors price and cost indicators to assess profitability trends[25] 2. It incorporates manufacturing PMI and real estate sales data to evaluate macroeconomic impacts on industry expectations[25] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is useful for identifying short-term profitability trends but may be limited by the lag in macroeconomic data updates[26] 5. Model Name: Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model estimates profit growth and cracking spreads for the refining industry based on changes in fuel prices, crude oil prices, and new drilling activity[27] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model calculates profit growth rates using changes in fuel and crude oil prices[27] 2. Cracking spreads are derived from the difference between product prices and raw material costs[27] 3. Allocation signals are generated based on oil price trends and drilling activity[27] - **Model Evaluation**: The model captures key profitability drivers but may not fully account for geopolitical risks affecting oil prices[34][35] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Excess Return**: The coal industry underperformed the Wind All-A Index by -9.8% in August 2025[10] 2. Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Supply-Demand Balance**: The potential supply for Q1 2026 is estimated at 19,380 million heads, while the demand is forecasted at 19,476 million heads, indicating a slightly tight balance[18] 3. Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Profit Growth**: The steel industry is predicted to achieve positive year-on-year profit growth in August 2025[23] 4. Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Glass Industry**: Profit margins continued to decline year-on-year in August 2025, but the rate of decline narrowed[26] - **Cement Industry**: Profitability slightly declined year-on-year in August 2025[26] 5. Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Refining Industry**: Profit growth for August 2025 is predicted to be positive[28] - **Oilfield Services**: Oil prices in August 2025 were lower than the previous year, and drilling activity remained stable, leading to a neutral allocation signal[35]

Market Overview - On September 1, the oil service engineering sector rose by 1.04%, with Renji Co., Ltd. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3875.53, up 0.46%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12828.95, up 1.05% [1] Stock Performance - Renji Co., Ltd. (002629) closed at 7.54, with a gain of 10.07% and a trading volume of 324,900 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 239 million [1] - Other notable performers included: - Zhun Oil Co., Ltd. (002207) at 7.71, up 4.76% [1] - Beiken Energy (002828) at 10.50, up 2.94% [1] - Tongyuan Petroleum (300164) at 5.31, up 2.31% [1] - CNOOC Development (600968) at 4.07, up 2.01% [1] Capital Flow - The oil service engineering sector experienced a net outflow of 37.07 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 1.85 million [2] - The capital flow for key stocks included: - Renji Co., Ltd. had a net inflow of 60.61 million from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 30.87 million from retail investors [3] - Zhun Oil Co., Ltd. had a net inflow of 21.75 million from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 10.83 million from retail investors [3] - CNOOC Development had a net inflow of 13.31 million from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 21.32 million from retail investors [3]

Market Overview - On August 29, the oil service engineering sector declined by 1.11%, with Haiyou Development leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3857.93, up 0.37%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12696.15, up 0.99% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Among the oil service engineering stocks, Zhongman Petroleum (603619) rose by 1.98% to a closing price of 19.57, with a trading volume of 174,400 shares and a transaction value of 340 million yuan [1] - Haiyou Development (600968) fell by 2.44% to a closing price of 66, with a trading volume of 927,500 shares and a transaction value of 374 million yuan [2] - Other notable performers include Renji Co. (002629) with a 1.48% increase and a closing price of 6.85, and Qianeng Hengxin (300191) with a 1.28% increase and a closing price of 20.56 [1][2] Capital Flow Analysis - The oil service engineering sector experienced a net outflow of 165 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 80.99 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for individual stocks indicates that Zhongman Petroleum had a net inflow of 56.2 million yuan from institutional investors, while Haiyou Development had a net outflow of 9.35 million yuan [3]

证券之星消息，8月27日油服工程板块较上一交易日下跌2.81%，通源石油领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3800.35，下跌1.76%。深证成指报收于12295.07，下跌1.43%。油服工程板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入(元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600968 海油发展 | | 6619.56万 | 18.30% | -2917.25万 | -8.07% | -3702.31万 | -10.24% | | 600583 海油工程 | | 2459.03万 | 5.56% | 401.24万 | 0.91% | -2860.26万 | -6.47% | | 300191 | 潜能恒信 | 97.06万 | 0.46% | -420.81万 | -2.01% | 323.74万 | 1.55% | | 603727 | 博迈科 | -223.72万 | -3.48% | -18.48万 | -0.29% | 24 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [4][15]. Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.5% in Q2 2025, with total revenue reaching 23.3 billion, up 3.5% year-on-year [1][3]. - The increase in daily rates for semi-submersible platforms is attributed to the commencement of high daily rate contracts, leading to a significant rise in revenue [2]. - The revenue from oilfield technical services saw a slight decline of 3.5% year-on-year, influenced by falling oil prices and reduced capital expenditures from global oil companies [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the company achieved an operating income of 12.5 billion, a 1.2% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.077 billion, reflecting a 12.5% increase year-on-year [1]. - The operating days for semi-submersible drilling platforms increased by 12% year-on-year, contributing to improved utilization rates [2]. - The average daily rate for semi-submersible platforms rose by 27.6% year-on-year to 171,000 USD, while the rate for self-elevating platforms decreased by 5.4% to 70,000 USD [2]. Financial Forecasts - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 4.03 billion, 4.24 billion, and 4.43 billion respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17.4, 16.6, and 15.9 [3][8]. - The projected revenue growth rates for the years 2023 to 2027 are 23.7%, 9.5%, 5.6%, 5.4%, and 3.8% respectively [8].