大宗周期篇：价格景气为锚，情绪博弈为帆 20251121 摘要 大宗周期行业长期年化收益率和波动率高于市场基准，但需关注有色金 属的下伏比率。构建多维度跟踪框架，关注经济增长和物价拐点（社融 增速、PMI 价格分项、PPI），行业景气度（商品价格、政策变化、盈利 预期、财报），以及市场情绪（估值、成交量、换手率）以优化择时。 当前市场环境下，有色金属、煤炭和钢铁值得重点关注。有色金属受货 币、金融、避险属性及供需影响；煤炭与钢铁受国内供需及商品价格联 动影响；石油石化需关注需求驱动的油价上涨，警惕地缘冲突扰动。基 础化工关注景气优质公司。 政策变化对大宗周期子行业有重要催化作用，需结合估值及业绩拐点综 合考量。供给侧改革和碳中和行动提升行业景气，盈利压力大的煤炭、 钢铁、有色金属涨幅较大。不同子行业因盈利差异和政策力度预期不同， 反转弹性也有差异。 商品价格是观察大宗周期景气度的直接指标，权益行情弹性与持续性与 商品持续涨价预期密切相关，股市通常领先于商品价格见顶。关注制造 业 PMI 主要原材料购进价格指数、南华综合指数、PPI 及各子行业商品 价格（动力煤、焦煤、螺纹钢、金价、铜铝、锂等）。 Q&A 请简 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates a narrowing year-on-year growth in social retail sales for October, with a 2.9% increase compared to the previous year, down from 3.0% in September, primarily affected by high base effects and weak demand in the home appliance and real estate sectors [12][21] - The report highlights a general recovery in essential consumer goods, with significant improvements in categories such as grain and oil, food, tobacco, and clothing, while optional consumption shows mixed performance [21][22] Retail Sector Overview - The cumulative retail sales of social consumer goods from January to October reached 4,121.685 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.3%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous period [12] - In October, essential consumption categories saw an increase, with grain and oil food sales growing by 9.1%, while beverage sales turned positive at 7.1% [16][21] - The online retail sales of physical goods continued to rise, accounting for 25.2% of total retail sales, with a year-on-year growth of 6.3% [14] Information Technology Sector - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Index experienced declines, while the DXI Index increased [2] - DRAM memory prices rose, and the production of integrated circuits saw an expanded year-on-year growth in October [2][8] Midstream Manufacturing Sector - Prices in the new energy supply chain generally increased, while the photovoltaic price index declined [5][7] - Sales of major engineering machinery companies in October showed a year-on-year growth slowdown [5][7] Consumer Demand Insights - Prices for fresh milk and sugar increased, while pork prices decreased [5][18] - The average ticket price for movies rose, and the ten-day average box office revenue increased significantly [5][19] Resource Sector Tracking - The average transaction volume of construction steel increased, and rebar prices rose [5][21] - Coal prices remained stable, while the inventory levels of coal and coke at major ports decreased [5][22] Financial and Real Estate Sector - The monetary market saw net injections, while the turnover rate and daily trading volume of A-shares declined [3][6] - The transaction area of commercial housing increased, but the year-on-year decline in housing completion area and sales expanded [3][6]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of analyst consensus expectations in predicting future industry performance, particularly in the context of the current A-share market, which is characterized by valuation recovery and liquidity-driven trends [9][11][12] - The report constructs a composite expectation factor to capture marginal changes in industry prosperity, focusing on the strength and magnitude of upward revisions in analyst forecasts [11][12][49] - The analysis categorizes expected indicators into three groups: profitability, asset quality, and cost metrics, which are essential for assessing market expectations regarding industry fundamentals [16][23] Group 2 - The upward strength signal reflects the breadth of upward revisions within an industry, indicating improvements in industry prosperity [30][32] - The upward magnitude signal measures the month-on-month improvement in overall industry forecasts, highlighting the concentration and intensity of industry recovery [40][44] - The report identifies that profitability-related indicators, such as expected net profit and ROE, significantly outperform cash flow and cost indicators in terms of predictive power and return potential [35][44] Group 3 - The composite expectation score combines upward strength and upward magnitude to provide a comprehensive view of industry prosperity, with higher scores correlating with better future performance [53][65] - The backtesting results show that the top-performing industries based on the composite score yield substantial excess returns compared to the benchmark, demonstrating the model's effectiveness in identifying profitable sectors [70][73] - The report highlights that the top five industry strategy achieved an annualized excess return of 12.40%, indicating strong predictive capabilities of the model [70][74]

中金点睛"精品数据上新"栏目将带您回顾近期上新的数据看板。 01 行业景气度追踪 从全市场视角出发，覆盖28+重点行业、100+核心指标，周度更新，系统识别行业景气信 号。 ➡【中金策略】行业景气度追踪 图： LME铜价与铝价 数据来源:上海有色网SMM，中金公司研究部 02 重卡月度数据库 新能源重卡规模持续扩大，渗透率加速上行，聚焦重卡与新能源重卡的销量、上牌量和企业 市占率等数据。 ➡【中金汽车】重卡月度数据库 图： 重卡企业累计销量市占率 数据来源:中国汽车工业协会，中金公司 研究部 03 房地产基本面情况周度概览 周度更新房地产行业数据，聚焦市场动态，全面覆盖新房市场、二手房市场、土地市场以及 房地产金融与政策四大核心板块。 ➡【中金房地产】房地产基本面情况周度概览 图：典型城市中金同质性二手住宅挂牌价格指数 数据来源:搜房、58、贝壳等房产中介网站 ，中金公司研究部 04 化工数据月报 月度解读化工产品价格指数走势，动态关注化工下游各行业的需求。 ➡【中金化工】化工数据月报 图： 化工品价格指数 数据来源:化工在线，中金公司研究部 更多特色数据，欢迎登录 中金点睛一站式数字化投研平台 站式数字化投 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that the market is more focused on industry-level prosperity rather than individual stock profit growth elasticity [4][6][11] - The report indicates that marginal changes in industry performance may be more significant than simply high prosperity levels [7][22][25] - For industry trend markets, the report notes that the market tends to price absolute profit growth rather than marginal changes [8][30][32] Group 2 - The report highlights that the prosperity style has been dominant throughout the year but has started to weaken recently [11][12] - It is observed that while TMT industries have a high proportion of prosperity at the industry level, this advantage is not as evident at the individual stock level [17][20] - The report suggests that aside from TMT, there are other industries worth attention that meet the criteria of high prosperity and high marginal change [35][36]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the financial performance of China Aluminum (601600.SH) for the first three quarters of 2025, highlighting both revenue growth and significant profit increase, emphasizing the importance of the company's fundamentals and industry conditions [4][5]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, China Aluminum achieved a revenue of 176.5 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.6% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 10.87 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 20.7% [4]. - The total profit for the period was reported at 20.77 billion yuan, which is an increase of 18.47% compared to the same period last year [5]. - The company's operating income for the current period was 60.12 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.66% compared to the previous year [5]. - The adjusted net profit for the year-to-date was 9.01 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 20.65% year-on-year [5]. Key Factors - The company's performance is significantly influenced by its fundamentals and the overall industry climate, indicating that both internal and external factors play a crucial role in its financial outcomes [5].

Core Insights - The chemical industry is entering a bottoming phase, with profitability expected to rebound as inventory levels are low and demand gradually recovers [4][7] - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing short-term volatility due to external liquidity uncertainties, but there is significant long-term valuation recovery potential [7] Market Temperature - The market temperature indicator shows that the Shanghai Composite Index is at a 98.27% percentile for the last ten years, indicating a high valuation level, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index are at 43% and 25% respectively [1] Sector Performance - The top three sectors with capital inflow are Basic Chemicals (3.405 billion), Electric Equipment (3.398 billion), and Comprehensive (0.401 billion) [2] - The sectors with the highest capital outflow include Computers (-7.842 billion), Electronics (-6.786 billion), and Machinery Equipment (-3.172 billion) [2] ETF Performance - The Chemical ETF has shown a 34.40% increase over the last six months, indicating strong performance in the sector [4] - The New Materials ETF and Green Energy ETF have also demonstrated significant growth, with increases of 43.31% and 51.44% respectively [4] Industry Trends - The chemical sector is witnessing a surge due to rising prices of electrolytes and lithium hexafluorophosphate, reflecting an overall recovery in industry sentiment [4] - The macroeconomic price index has been improving since 2025, suggesting a stabilization in chemical product prices [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural chemical industry [6][9]. Core Views - The potassium fertilizer supply and demand are tightly balanced, with international prices remaining high. China's potassium chloride production is expected to decrease slightly in 2024, while imports are projected to reach a historical high [1][27]. - The long-term price center for phosphate rock is expected to remain high due to declining grades and increasing extraction costs in China, alongside growing demand from downstream sectors like lithium iron phosphate [2][5]. - The demand for lithium iron phosphate continues to rise, with production and prices increasing significantly in recent months, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [3][51]. Summary by Sections Potassium Fertilizer - China's potassium chloride production is forecasted at 5.5 million tons in 2024, a decrease of 2.7% year-on-year, while imports are expected to reach 12.633 million tons, a 9.1% increase [1][27]. - The average market price for potassium chloride in October was 3,228 RMB/ton, showing a year-on-year increase of 28.3% [1][45]. - The report recommends focusing on potassium fertilizer companies, particularly "Yaji International," which is expected to produce 2.8 million tons and 4 million tons of potassium chloride in 2025 and 2026, respectively [4][50]. Phosphate Chemicals - The phosphate rock market is characterized by tight supply and high prices, with 30% grade phosphate rock prices remaining above 900 RMB/ton for over three years [2][52]. - As of October 31, 2025, the price for 30% grade phosphate rock in Hubei was 1,040 RMB/ton, while in Yunnan it was 970 RMB/ton, both stable compared to the previous month [2][52]. - The report highlights companies with rich phosphate reserves, recommending "Yuntianhua" and "Xingfa Group," while suggesting attention to "Hubei Yihua" and "Yuntu Holdings" for their potential in increasing self-sufficiency in phosphate rock [5]. Pesticides - The report anticipates an increase in exports of glyphosate and glufosinate to the Northern Hemisphere during the seasonal peak from November to January [4][8]. - The price of glyphosate in the East China market rose to 27,300 RMB/ton, a 17.67% increase since April [4][8]. - The report recommends "Yangnong Chemical" for its long-term growth potential, along with other companies like "Lier Chemical" and "Xingfa Group" for their strong market positions [8].

Core Viewpoint - The company is closely monitoring macroeconomic PMI data and industry conditions, indicating a resilient demand and order situation despite the overall manufacturing sector showing signs of contraction [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The company has reported good operational performance, with demand and orders remaining strong [1] - There is a noted structural differentiation in demand for die-casting and injection molding machines from downstream customers in sectors such as automotive, home appliances, and 3C [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The manufacturing PMI has been in a contraction zone from July to September, suggesting a relative weakness in macro-level capital expenditure willingness [1] - The company’s new order signing pace and visibility are being assessed in relation to the overall industry sentiment reflected by PMI [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural chemical industry [6][9]. Core Views - The potassium fertilizer supply and demand are tightly balanced, with international prices remaining high. China, being the largest consumer, has a dependency on imports exceeding 60% [1][25]. - The long-term price center for phosphate rock is expected to remain high due to declining grades and increasing extraction costs in China, alongside growing demand from downstream sectors like lithium iron phosphate [2][5]. - The demand for lithium iron phosphate continues to rise, with production and prices increasing significantly, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [3][51]. Summary by Sections Potassium Fertilizer - China's potassium chloride production is projected to decrease by 2.7% to 5.5 million tons in 2024, while imports are expected to reach a record high of 12.633 million tons, up 9.1% year-on-year [1][25]. - As of October 2025, the average market price for potassium chloride is 3,228 CNY/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.3% [1][45]. - The report recommends focusing on potassium fertilizer companies, particularly "Yaka International," which is expected to produce 2.8 million tons and 4 million tons of potassium chloride in 2025 and 2026, respectively [4][50]. Phosphate Chemicals - The phosphate rock supply-demand balance is tight, with the market price for 30% grade phosphate rock remaining high at 1,040 CNY/ton in Hubei and 970 CNY/ton in Yunnan [2][52]. - The report highlights the increasing demand for phosphate in new applications, particularly in the lithium battery sector, which is driving up prices for related products [3][51]. - Key companies recommended in the phosphate sector include "Yuntianhua" and "Xingfa Group," which have rich phosphate reserves [5][9]. Pesticides - The report anticipates an increase in exports of glyphosate and glufosinate to the Northern Hemisphere during the seasonal peak from November to January, with prices rebounding from historical lows [4][8]. - The domestic glyphosate industry is operating at a high capacity of 92.42%, with inventory levels at a two-year low, supporting price increases [4][8]. - Recommended companies in the pesticide sector include "Yangnong Chemical" and "Lier Chemical," which are well-positioned to benefit from the expected demand surge [8][9].