总量研究 制造业景气度持稳，油价延续下降趋势 ——金融工程行业景气月报 20260106 2026 年 1 月 6 日 要点 行业景气度信号追踪 煤炭：25 年 12 月，煤价略低于上年同期，我们预测 26 年 1 月行业利润同比微 降，维持煤炭行业中性观点。 畜牧养殖：25 年 11 月底能繁母猪存栏尚未公布，若和 10 月保持一致，据此我 们预测肉价至 26Q2 仍有修复动能，维持中性观点，等待产能继续去化。 普钢：我们预测 25 年 12 月普钢行业利润同比负增长。PMI 滚动均值环比持平， 维持普钢行业中性观点。 结构材料与建筑工程：我们测算 25 年 12 月浮法玻璃毛利同比延续负增长，维 持玻璃行业中性观点；我们预测水泥行业 25 年 12 月利润同比延续负增长，继 续等待房屋新开工面积出现积极信号，维持水泥行业中性观点；12 月制造业 PMI 滚动均值环比持稳，预计基建托底预期难以发酵，将建筑装饰行业调至中性观点。 燃料型炼化与油服：我们预测燃料型炼化行业 25 年 12 月利润同比大体持平。 油价延续下降趋势，维持炼化、油服行业中性观点。 风险分析：报告结果均基于模型及历史数据，模型存在失效的 ...

期货研究报告|中观数据 2026-01-05 去库延续，需求仍待改善 ——行业景气度系列十 研究院 徐闻宇 xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 中观事件 12 月中国制造业 PMI 为 50.1（0.9 pct MoM），处于扩张区间的行业环比减少 4 个，处于 收缩区间的行业环比增加 4 个；非制造业 PMI 为 50.2（0.7 pct MoM），处于扩张区间的 行业环比增加 5 个，处于收缩区间的行业环比减少 5 个。 核心观点 ■ 制造业 总体：12 月制造业 PMI 近五年分位数位于 57.6%，变动 37.3%。其中，4 个行业制造业 PMI 处于扩张区间，环比减少 4 个，同比减少 3 个。 供给：小幅回落。3 个月均值来看，12 月制造业 PMI 生产指数为 50.5 ，环比减少 0.1 个 百分点；其中，5 个行业出现环比改善，10 个行业出现环比回落。 需求：仍待改善。3 个月均值来看，12 月制造业 PMI 新订单为 49.6 ，环比增加 0.4 个百 分点。其中，3 个行业出 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 2025 年 12 月 24 日 电影票价明显修复，有色、存储器价格强势 ——行业景气观察（1224） 本周景气度改善的方向主要在资源品、中游制造和信息技术领域。上游资源品中， 金属、钢铁、煤炭价格多数上涨；中游制造领域，新能源产业链价格多数上涨， 11 月金属成形机床产量三个月滚动同比增幅扩大。信息技术中，存储器价格持 续上涨，11 月电信主营业务收入三个月滚动同比增幅扩大。消费服务领域，生猪 养殖利润上行。上市公司 Q4 盈利有望延续正增长，但增幅可能有所收窄。推荐 关注年报盈利有望高增或有改善的有色、电池、军工电子、航空/航天装备、电网 设备、工程机械、半导体、传媒等。 ❑【资源品】建筑钢材成交量十日均值上行；钢坯价格、螺纹钢价格均上行。煤炭价 格方面，秦皇岛优混动力煤价格下行，京唐港山西主焦煤库提价上行；焦炭期货结 算价、焦煤期货结算价上行。库存方面，秦皇岛港煤炭库存上行，京唐港炼焦煤库 存、天津港焦炭库存下行。全国水泥价格指数上行。Brent 国际原油价格上行；中 国化工产品价格指数周环比上行，化工品价格多数下行，PVC、PTA 涨幅居前， 聚乙烯、聚合 MID 跌幅 ...

年内翻倍的股价，让天赐材料部分高管再起减持冲动。 12月5日晚间，公司发布减持预披露公告，副董事长徐三善、副总经理顾斌等人计划在公告披露之日起15个交易日后的3个月内，合计减持公司92.4万股。 或许，是出于呵护公司股价的考虑，12月7日晚间天赐材料紧接着发布公告，控股股东徐金富承诺未来6个月不减持的公告予以"对冲"。 值得注意的是，历史上天赐材料的高管减持比较频繁。 历史公告显示，2022年以前，公司几乎每年都有高管减持股份；2022年以后，则是受到行业周期回落、公司大幅下跌的影响，高管减持阶段性暂停。 直至今年下半年，电解液等相关环节成为锂电业领涨品种，这帮助天赐材料年内涨幅一度扩大至153%，减持机会开始重新出现。 而在抛出上述高管减持计划后，天赐材料依旧在公告中强调"董事及高级管理人员对公司发展前景持续坚定看好。" 基本面改善突出 电解液及其上游六氟磷酸锂、碳酸亚乙烯酯（VC），是今年四季度景气度提升最突出的上游原材料行业之一。 其中，六氟磷酸锂受到储能产业需求爆发、供给端产能集中，且新增产能有限、碳酸锂价格重心上移等多重因素影响，供需关系转为紧平衡。 相关数据显示，今年9月末，六氟磷酸锂价格保持在6 ...

英国建筑业活动显著收缩 行业景气持续低迷 中新社伦敦12月4日电 (欧阳开宇 刘施岑)标普全球4日公布的数据显示，今年11月英国建筑业活动出现 大幅收缩，采购经理人指数(PMI)降至39.4，为2020年5月以来最低水平，显著低于50的荣枯线，反映行 业景气度持续低迷。 数据显示，当月建筑业核心子行业全面承压：商业建筑子指数仅为43.8，住宅建设与基础设施工程活动 同步走弱，新订单量连续第三个月下滑，项目启动延迟现象普遍。 业内分析指出，新项目投资不足、终端客户需求疲软，叠加对英国经济前景、财政政策稳定性的担忧， 是导致行业整体收缩的主要原因。此外，高利率环境下融资成本上升，也进一步抑制了企业投资意愿。 就业市场同步遭遇寒流。英国11月建筑业就业指数连续第四个月下滑，企业为控制成本纷纷缩减招聘规 模，部分企业启动停工或裁员计划。工资成本上涨与工程项目减少的双重压力，使得行业就业形势持续 恶化。 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：万可义 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中 ...

Group 1 - The overall performance of upstream resource products remains low, but internal structure continues to differentiate, with coal industry stability and slight price increases in thermal coal [4] - The manufacturing sector shows an overall recovery, with notable performance in machinery and equipment, while the automotive industry is experiencing marginal improvements [4] - Downstream consumption sectors exhibit varied recovery dynamics, with significant improvements in social services and entertainment, while the real estate sector shows signs of marginal recovery [4] Group 2 - The banking system maintains ample liquidity, with stable growth in M2 and social financing, indicating marginal improvements in the funding environment [4] - The transportation sector shows continued differentiation, with significant growth in port container throughput, while comprehensive freight rates face slight pressure due to geopolitical and supply-demand factors [4] - The environmental sector is experiencing a recovery in performance, with improved air quality rates and sustained high levels of related infrastructure investment [4] Group 3 - The chemical industry is under pressure, with prices of PVC and methanol continuing to decline, while the performance of the basic chemical sector is closely linked to fuel oil and methanol futures prices [5][10] - The steel industry shows a correlation between excess returns and various operational metrics, including iron ore operating rates and steel production inventories [21][25] - The non-ferrous metals sector maintains relative stability, with slight increases in copper and aluminum prices, and its performance is linked to the LME base metals index [27][32] Group 4 - The construction materials sector is facing weak demand, with cement and glass prices remaining in negative territory, and its performance is correlated with cement price indices [38][39] - The coal industry shows a correlation between excess returns and thermal coal closing prices, indicating a relationship with market dynamics [39][43] - The oil and petrochemical sector continues to experience weak performance, with expanding year-on-year declines in gasoline and natural gas prices [44] Group 5 - The electric equipment sector's performance is linked to the prices of photovoltaic components and polysilicon, indicating a recovery phase [46][52] - The automotive sector shows a correlation between excess returns and tire operating rates, with daily average sales of passenger vehicles also being a significant indicator [54][60] - The machinery sector's performance is associated with the BPI and machinery price indices, reflecting its recovery trajectory [61][62] Group 6 - The retail sector's performance is linked to the Yiwu order price index, indicating a recovery in trade activities [89] - The agricultural sector shows a correlation between excess returns and the food price index, with specific attention to the dynamics of vegetable prices and pig feed ratios [92][93] - The food and beverage sector's performance is associated with various agricultural product price indices, reflecting market trends [94][98]

- The report tracks industry prosperity signals using quantitative models and indicators, focusing on coal, livestock, steel, structural materials, and fuel refining industries[9] - For the coal industry, the model uses price factors and capacity factors to estimate monthly revenue and profit growth rates. The formula is based on the monthly price index of thermal coal, which determines the sales price for the following month[10][14] - In the livestock industry, the "slaughter coefficient method" is applied to predict the supply-demand gap for pigs six months ahead. The formula is: $ \text{Slaughter Coefficient} = \frac{\text{Quarterly Pig Slaughter}}{\text{Breeding Sow Inventory (lagged 6 months)}} $ This method effectively identifies pig price upcycles based on historical data[15][16] - For the steel industry, the model incorporates comprehensive steel prices and cost indicators (e.g., iron ore, coke, coal, and scrap steel) to predict monthly profit growth and calculate per-ton profit[18][21] - In the structural materials sector, profitability changes in glass and cement manufacturing are tracked using price and cost indicators. These changes are used to design allocation signals. Additionally, manufacturing PMI and real estate sales data are analyzed to assess potential infrastructure investment expectations[24][26] - For the fuel refining and oil services industry, the model uses changes in fuel prices, crude oil prices, and cracking spreads to estimate profit growth and design allocation signals. The model also considers changes in new drilling activities[27][34][35]

Core Viewpoint - The paper industry stocks are experiencing an upward trend, with major companies announcing price increases for their products in late November to early December, indicating a potential recovery in the sector [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Nine Dragons Paper (02689) saw a stock increase of 5.25%, reaching HKD 6.41, while Lee & Man Paper (02314) rose by 4.65% to HKD 3.15 [1] - Major companies such as Shanying, Nine Dragons, APP, and Asia Pulp & Paper have issued price adjustment notices for their products [1] Group 2: Price Adjustments - The upcoming price increases will affect both packaging paper and corrugated paper, with packaging paper experiencing a moderate increase of around CNY 50 per ton [1] - Cultural paper types, such as copy paper and double offset paper, will see a more significant price increase of CNY 200 per ton [1] Group 3: Industry Outlook - According to a report from Industrial Securities, the paper industry faced pressure on revenue and profits in Q3, but Q4 is expected to be a traditional demand peak season [1] - The anticipated price increases are expected to be partially or fully realized, alongside rising costs for waste paper and pulp, suggesting an upward trend in industry sentiment [1] - Industry leaders such as Sun Paper (002078) and Nine Dragons Paper are recommended for attention due to these developments [1]

Summary of Conference Call on Commodity Cycle Industry Industry Overview - The commodity cycle industry has a long-term annualized return and volatility higher than market benchmarks, with a specific focus on the downward ratio of non-ferrous metals [1][4] - Key sectors to monitor include non-ferrous metals, coal, and steel, influenced by monetary, financial, and supply-demand factors [1][5] Core Insights and Arguments - **Investment Logic**: The investment logic in the commodity cycle industry is based on three dimensions: economic cycles, industry prosperity, and market sentiment. Timing is crucial due to the cyclical nature of the industry [2] - **Policy Impact**: Policy changes serve as significant catalysts for sub-industries within the commodity cycle, necessitating a comprehensive evaluation of valuation and performance turning points [1][8] - **Commodity Prices**: Commodity prices are direct indicators of industry prosperity, with stock market performance often leading commodity price peaks [1][10] - **Profitability Forecasts**: Profitability forecasts for coal, steel, and non-ferrous metals show a clearer leading relationship with stock prices compared to oil and petrochemicals [3][13] Key Sectors of Focus 1. **Non-Ferrous Metals**: Includes precious metals (e.g., gold), industrial metals (e.g., copper, aluminum), and energy metals (e.g., lithium). Influenced by monetary attributes and global economic conditions [6] 2. **Coal and Steel**: Heavily impacted by domestic supply-demand dynamics and commodity price correlations [6] 3. **Oil and Petrochemicals**: Stock market performance is more strongly guided by oil price increases driven by economic growth, with caution advised regarding geopolitical disruptions [7] Additional Important Insights - **Market Sentiment**: High dividend yield sectors, particularly coal, steel, and petrochemicals, exhibit strong defensive characteristics during market downturns [15] - **Emerging Technologies**: The development of new materials in the chemical industry, such as membrane materials and carbon fibers, is increasing demand [3][12] - **Long-term Outlook**: Analysts predict that the current upward cycle in commodity prices is not yet over, with long-term growth potential remaining due to low valuation levels across sub-industries [17] Conclusion - The commodity cycle industry is poised for potential growth driven by favorable policies and market conditions. Non-ferrous metals and coal are highlighted as sectors with significant investment opportunities, while the petrochemical sector requires careful monitoring of oil price movements.

Core Insights - The report indicates a narrowing year-on-year growth in social retail sales for October, with a 2.9% increase compared to the previous year, down from 3.0% in September, primarily affected by high base effects and weak demand in the home appliance and real estate sectors [12][21] - The report highlights a general recovery in essential consumer goods, with significant improvements in categories such as grain and oil, food, tobacco, and clothing, while optional consumption shows mixed performance [21][22] Retail Sector Overview - The cumulative retail sales of social consumer goods from January to October reached 4,121.685 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.3%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous period [12] - In October, essential consumption categories saw an increase, with grain and oil food sales growing by 9.1%, while beverage sales turned positive at 7.1% [16][21] - The online retail sales of physical goods continued to rise, accounting for 25.2% of total retail sales, with a year-on-year growth of 6.3% [14] Information Technology Sector - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Index experienced declines, while the DXI Index increased [2] - DRAM memory prices rose, and the production of integrated circuits saw an expanded year-on-year growth in October [2][8] Midstream Manufacturing Sector - Prices in the new energy supply chain generally increased, while the photovoltaic price index declined [5][7] - Sales of major engineering machinery companies in October showed a year-on-year growth slowdown [5][7] Consumer Demand Insights - Prices for fresh milk and sugar increased, while pork prices decreased [5][18] - The average ticket price for movies rose, and the ten-day average box office revenue increased significantly [5][19] Resource Sector Tracking - The average transaction volume of construction steel increased, and rebar prices rose [5][21] - Coal prices remained stable, while the inventory levels of coal and coke at major ports decreased [5][22] Financial and Real Estate Sector - The monetary market saw net injections, while the turnover rate and daily trading volume of A-shares declined [3][6] - The transaction area of commercial housing increased, but the year-on-year decline in housing completion area and sales expanded [3][6]