2025 年 10 月 10 日 总量研究 能繁母猪存栏微降，浮法玻璃盈利同比转正 ——金融工程行业景气月报 20251010 要点 行业景气度信号追踪 煤炭：25 年 9 月，煤价低于上年同期，我们预测 25 年 10 月行业利润同比下降， 维持煤炭行业中性观点。 畜牧养殖：25 年 8 月底能繁母猪存栏为 4038 万头，环比微降。据此我们预测 肉价至 26Q1 仍有持稳修复可能，维持中性信号，等待产能明显去化阶段。 普钢：我们预测 25 年 9 月普钢行业利润同比正增长。PMI 滚动均值环比持平， 维持普钢行业中性信号。 结构材料与建筑工程：我们测算 25 年 9 月浮法玻璃毛利同比转正，将玻璃行业 调至景气信号；我们预测水泥行业 25 年 9 月利润同比持平，继续等待房屋新开 工面积出现积极信号，维持水泥行业中性观点；9 月制造业 PMI 滚动均值环比持 平，商品房销售数据同比下降，预计基建托底预期难以发酵，维持建筑装饰行业 中性信号。 燃料型炼化与油服：我们预测燃料型炼化行业 25 年 9 月利润同比正增长。油价 尚未形成同比上行趋势，维持炼化、油服行业中性观点。 风险分析：报告结果均基于模型及历史 ...

消息面上，受宏观与矿扰共振，近期铜价高位震荡。今年8月，建滔积层板发布涨价函：宣布由于铜、 玻璃布以及化工原材料等价格均大幅上涨，考虑成本压力，从即日起，对 CEM-1/22F/V0/HB价格+10 元/张，FR-4价格+10元/张，大约对应约8%左右涨幅。中信证券指出，原材料价格、稼动率水平保持高 位，覆铜板厂商加强推动涨价。随着25Q2头部覆铜板厂商净利率水平提升至约10%，该行认为行业的 提价底层逻辑正逐步转为行业景气上行带来的盈利潜力释放。 智通财经APP获悉，建滔积层板(01888)涨超6%，截至发稿，涨6.41%，报12.79港元，成交额2.37亿港 元。 国泰海通证券指出，传统覆铜板价格上行期，传统供给扩张有限利于格局。历史上铜价和玻璃纤维布向 上的周期中，传统覆铜板的价格周期也较为乐观。25H2行业进行新一轮提价尝试。从供需格局来看， 覆铜板行业整体需求伴随AI需求改善有较好的增长预期，主要企业的扩产计划也主要聚焦在高端板 中，甚至行业部分中端产能将进行高端化的转产。因此传统中端覆铜板的供需格局也较良好。行业从 2023年盈利底部以来，中端产能扩产相对有限，而全球需求端则可以做温和上行的假设， ...

国泰海通证券指出，传统覆铜板价格上行期，传统供给扩张有限利于格局。历史上铜价和玻璃纤维布向 上的周期中，传统覆铜板的价格周期也较为乐观。25H2行业进行新一轮提价尝试。从供需格局来看， 覆铜板行业整体需求伴随AI需求改善有较好的增长预期，主要企业的扩产计划也主要聚焦在高端板 中，甚至行业部分中端产能将进行高端化的转产。因此传统中端覆铜板的供需格局也较良好。行业从 2023年盈利底部以来，中端产能扩产相对有限，而全球需求端则可以做温和上行的假设，因此传统覆铜 板的景气和价格趋势或较为乐观。 建滔积层板(01888)涨超6%，截至发稿，涨6.41%，报12.79港元，成交额2.37亿港元。 消息面上，受宏观与矿扰共振，近期铜价高位震荡。今年8月，建滔积层板发布涨价函：宣布由于铜、 玻璃布以及化工原材料等价格均大幅上涨，考虑成本压力，从即日起，对 CEM-1/22F/V0/HB价格+10 元/张，FR-4价格+10元/张，大约对应约8%左右涨幅。中信证券指出，原材料价格、稼动率水平保持高 位，覆铜板厂商加强推动涨价。随着25Q2头部覆铜板厂商净利率水平提升至约10%，该行认为行业的 提价底层逻辑正逐步转为行业景气上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent phenomenon of foreign capital inflow into A-shares has been a significant topic of discussion, indicating a growing interest from global investors in the Chinese stock market [2][4]. Group 1: Foreign Capital Inflow Data - From May to the end of July, long-term stable foreign institutional funds accumulated inflows of approximately 67.7 billion HKD, while short-term flexible foreign institutional funds saw inflows of about 16.2 billion HKD [2]. - During the week of August 14-20, the net inflow of foreign capital for allocation reached a new high since 2025, totaling 6.98 billion CNY, with active allocation foreign capital turning to net inflow for the first time since mid-October 2024, amounting to 140 million CNY [2]. - In the first week of September 2025, foreign capital net inflow into the Chinese mainland market was approximately 5.5 billion USD, with stock funds contributing 5.02 billion USD, primarily from passive funds [2]. Group 2: Foreign Investment Preferences - Foreign capital tends to favor industries with global competitive advantages and strong growth potential, such as innovative pharmaceuticals, leading internet companies in Hong Kong, the Nvidia supply chain, and renewable energy [4]. - Since July, foreign capital has shown a significant preference for sectors like technology, healthcare, and materials, particularly focusing on companies within the AI industry due to their clear technological advancements and profit growth expectations [4]. - The preference for core assets with local market characteristics is evident, with foreign capital increasing allocations in sectors like automotive, banking, and electronics in A-shares, while favoring software and services in Hong Kong stocks [5]. Group 3: Structural Characteristics of Foreign Investment - The structural characteristics of foreign capital allocation in A-shares are focused on high-growth technology, high-dividend assets, and high-end manufacturing [4]. - Foreign investors have shown a preference for stocks with strong fundamentals, as indicated by the higher return on equity (ROE) of foreign-held stocks in A-shares (17.2%) compared to the overall market [5]. - The trend of foreign capital favoring stocks with lower AH premium suggests a strategic approach to maximize returns while minimizing risks associated with market fluctuations [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive performance of China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (China National Heavy Truck) in the heavy truck market, with a notable increase in sales and a stable financial performance [1] - As of August 2025, the heavy truck market in China sold approximately 84,000 units, reflecting a slight month-on-month decrease of 1% from July, but a significant year-on-year increase of about 35% compared to 62,500 units sold in the same month last year [1] - The company achieved revenue of approximately 50.878 billion yuan in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.21%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was about 3.427 billion yuan, also up by 4.03% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The brokerage Guolian Minsheng Securities suggests that with the industry entering the peak season of September and October, the likelihood of annual heavy truck wholesale sales exceeding 1 million units has increased, indicating a positive outlook for the heavy truck industry in September and Q4 [1] - Despite facing pressure on heavy truck demand and a slowdown in export growth, China National Heavy Truck has managed to deliver stable performance through effective cost management and a consistent dividend policy [1] - The company is expected to benefit as an industry leader from the recovery in heavy truck sales in the second half of the year [1]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates monthly revenue and profit growth rates for the coal industry based on changes in price and capacity factors[10][15] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The pricing mechanism is determined by the last price index of the previous month, which sets the sales price for the next month[10] 2. The model uses year-on-year changes in price factors and capacity factors to estimate revenue and profit growth rates on a monthly basis[10] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to track and predict industry profitability trends, but it is sensitive to price fluctuations and external shocks[15] 2. Model Name: Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model predicts the supply-demand gap for hogs six months in advance based on the relationship between sow inventory and hog slaughter rates[16][17] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model assumes a stable proportional relationship between quarterly hog slaughter and sow inventory lagged by six months[16] 2. The formula for the slaughter coefficient is: $ \text{Slaughter Coefficient} = \frac{\text{Quarterly Hog Slaughter}}{\text{Sow Inventory (Lagged 6 Months)}} $[16] 3. The potential supply six months later is calculated as: $ \text{Potential Supply (t+6)} = \text{Sow Inventory (t)} \times \text{Slaughter Coefficient (t+6)} $[17] 4. The potential demand six months later is estimated using historical quarterly slaughter data[17] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies hog price cycles but relies heavily on the accuracy of historical slaughter coefficients[17] 3. Model Name: Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model predicts monthly profit growth and per-ton profitability for the steel industry by integrating steel prices and raw material costs[19] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model incorporates comprehensive steel prices and costs of raw materials such as iron ore, coke, pulverized coal, and scrap steel[19] 2. Monthly profit growth rates and per-ton profitability are calculated based on these inputs[19] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a detailed view of profitability trends but may not fully capture external demand-side factors[23] 4. Model Name: Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model tracks profitability changes in the glass and cement industries using price and cost indicators, and generates allocation signals based on these changes[25] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model monitors price and cost indicators to assess profitability trends[25] 2. It incorporates manufacturing PMI and real estate sales data to evaluate macroeconomic impacts on industry expectations[25] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is useful for identifying short-term profitability trends but may be limited by the lag in macroeconomic data updates[26] 5. Model Name: Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model estimates profit growth and cracking spreads for the refining industry based on changes in fuel prices, crude oil prices, and new drilling activity[27] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model calculates profit growth rates using changes in fuel and crude oil prices[27] 2. Cracking spreads are derived from the difference between product prices and raw material costs[27] 3. Allocation signals are generated based on oil price trends and drilling activity[27] - **Model Evaluation**: The model captures key profitability drivers but may not fully account for geopolitical risks affecting oil prices[34][35] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Excess Return**: The coal industry underperformed the Wind All-A Index by -9.8% in August 2025[10] 2. Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Supply-Demand Balance**: The potential supply for Q1 2026 is estimated at 19,380 million heads, while the demand is forecasted at 19,476 million heads, indicating a slightly tight balance[18] 3. Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Profit Growth**: The steel industry is predicted to achieve positive year-on-year profit growth in August 2025[23] 4. Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Glass Industry**: Profit margins continued to decline year-on-year in August 2025, but the rate of decline narrowed[26] - **Cement Industry**: Profitability slightly declined year-on-year in August 2025[26] 5. Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Refining Industry**: Profit growth for August 2025 is predicted to be positive[28] - **Oilfield Services**: Oil prices in August 2025 were lower than the previous year, and drilling activity remained stable, leading to a neutral allocation signal[35]

Group 1 - The report indicates that as of mid-August, the upstream resource industry is experiencing an upward trend in prosperity, while the midstream manufacturing sector shows a mixed performance, with sectors like non-ferrous metals, coal, basic chemicals, and oil and petrochemicals improving continuously [4] - In the downstream consumption sector, there is a divergence in performance; the social services and home appliance industries are on the rise, while the commercial retail sector is declining. In essential consumption, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, food and beverage, and textile and apparel industries are generally experiencing a downturn [4] - Supportive service industries and the financial sector are overall declining, with the environmental protection industry within supportive services also showing a downturn. However, the banking sector is improving, and the non-bank financial sector is on the rise, while the computer sector within the TMT industry is declining [4] Group 2 - The report tracks excess returns in various industries, including basic chemicals, steel, non-ferrous metals, coal, oil and petrochemicals, and construction materials, providing correlation data with high-frequency indicators [5][10][17][31][36][39][46][77] - The basic chemicals industry shows a strong correlation with various commodity prices, indicating potential investment opportunities based on price movements [6][9][17] - The steel industry is closely linked to production and inventory metrics, suggesting that monitoring these indicators can provide insights into future performance [10][12][14] Group 3 - The report highlights the importance of tracking excess returns in the automotive industry, with indicators such as daily sales and production rates being critical for understanding market dynamics [48][50] - The machinery equipment sector's performance is analyzed through various price indices, indicating a need for investors to pay attention to these metrics for better investment decisions [55][58] - The report also emphasizes the significance of high-frequency indicators in the transportation sector, which can provide insights into overall economic activity and sector performance [60][62] Group 4 - The agricultural sector's excess returns are tracked against food product price indices, indicating a strong relationship between agricultural prices and overall sector performance [96][98] - The report discusses the food and beverage industry's performance in relation to various price indices, suggesting that monitoring these can help identify investment opportunities [98][99] - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors are analyzed with respect to traditional Chinese medicine price indices, highlighting the importance of these metrics in understanding market trends [101][106] Group 5 - The public utilities sector's performance is linked to coal consumption metrics, indicating that energy prices and consumption patterns are critical for assessing sector health [111][114] - The real estate sector's excess returns are correlated with metrics such as transaction volumes and land prices, suggesting that these indicators are vital for understanding market conditions [115][121] - The report also examines the computer industry, focusing on the relationship between excess returns and pricing trends in electronic components, which can inform investment strategies [124][127]

Group 1 - The core observation indicates a narrowing year-on-year growth in July's social retail sales, which fell below market expectations, while the effects of consumption expansion policies are still present, particularly in home appliances, furniture, and communication equipment [2][21][22] - The report highlights that first-tier cities continue to be a major drag on retail recovery, with consumption drivers shifting towards third and fifth-tier cities [21][22] - Essential consumption shows a mixed performance, with staple food demand remaining robust, while clothing and textiles have slowed down [21][22] Group 2 - In the information technology sector, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has declined, while the Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Index and DXI Index have increased [4][6] - The production of integrated circuits and smartphones has shown a rolling year-on-year increase in July, indicating a positive trend in the tech manufacturing sector [4][6] - The prices of lithium raw materials and cobalt products have risen, while the price of DMC has decreased, reflecting mixed trends in the midstream manufacturing sector [4][6] Group 3 - In the midstream manufacturing sector, the production of metal cutting machine tools and packaging equipment has seen a year-on-year increase, while the production of solar cells has narrowed [4][6] - The sales of major engineering machinery companies improved year-on-year in July, indicating a recovery in the construction and machinery sectors [4][6] - The report recommends focusing on sectors with high or improving economic conditions, such as building materials, engineering machinery, general equipment, photovoltaics, semiconductors, and non-bank financials [1][12]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that not all stocks with doubled earnings are genuine growth stocks, and distinguishing between true growth and inflated figures is crucial for investment success [3][4]. Group 1: True vs. Pseudo Growth - True growth is characterized by substantial business improvement, such as high order volumes and increased production capacity, exemplified by companies like Jiao Cheng Ultrasound, which saw contract liabilities triple and capacity utilization at 95% [3][4]. - Pseudo growth often relies on government subsidies or minor profit increases from previous losses, as seen with Huayin Power, which reported a net profit of only 1.9 million last year, making this year's doubling less impressive [3][4]. Group 2: Screening Methodology - A three-step screening method is proposed to identify genuine growth stocks: 1. Filter out "watered-down earnings" by ensuring net profit growth exceeds 50% after excluding non-recurring income, and that cash received is over 80% of net profit [4]. 2. Identify opportunities with unrecognized market potential, such as companies exceeding growth forecasts or having lower-than-average P/E ratios [4]. 3. Assess industry health, focusing on sectors with high certainty, like AI and high-end manufacturing, where companies show significant contract growth and high capacity utilization [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Three practical strategies for buying and selling stocks are outlined: 1. The "Golden Pit First Jump" strategy targets stocks that show significant initial earnings growth and high trading volume [5]. 2. The "Quarterly Report Scholar Relay" strategy focuses on stocks with consistent earnings growth across quarters, particularly when the stock price remains stable after positive reports [5]. 3. The "Windfall Ambush" strategy seeks stocks in trending sectors that show substantial growth but are temporarily undervalued [5]. Group 4: Exit Strategies - For profit-taking, sell when the P/E ratio exceeds the industry average by 20% or when the stock price reaches new highs but shows declining momentum [6]. - For loss-cutting, exit if the stock price fills a gap within three days or if earnings are proven false [6]. Group 5: Key Investment Principles - The article concludes that the best opportunities during earnings season lie within the triangle of "exceeding expectations, undervaluation, and high industry health" [6].

Group 1 - The current market is focusing on the annual reports and Q1 performance of listed companies, as the time lag between policy implementation and its impact on company performance requires confirmation from institutions regarding industry prosperity and earnings realization [1][2] - As of March 25, nearly 500 companies have disclosed their 2021 annual reports, with over 4,000 companies expected to report by the end of April [1] - Historical data suggests that A-shares have a high probability of adjustment in mid-April, leading to a period of repeated bottoming with a focus on structural opportunities [1][2] Group 2 - Institutions are likely to increase their focus on companies with sustainable earnings and favorable industry conditions to attract further investment [1] - The investment community is particularly interested in sectors with high growth potential, such as the semiconductor industry, while also considering defensive stocks like telecom operators and high-dividend stocks [2] - Market sentiment is expected to remain weak post-adjustment, with a heightened demand for growth certainty in investment targets [2]