红利风格择时周报（0224-0227） [Table_Authors] 郑雅斌(分析师) 本报告导读： 上周（20260224 至 20260227）红利风格择时模型综合因子值为-0.10，在连续两周为 正值后转为轻微负向信号，前一周（20260209 至 20260213）因子值为 0.09。 投资要点： | | 021-23219395 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyabin@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040105 | | | 梁誉耀(分析师) | | | 021-38038665 | | | liangyuyao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524080003 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 低频选股因子周报（2026.02.13-2026.02.27） 2026.03.01 量化择时和拥挤度预警周报（20260227） 2026.02.28 红利风格择时周报（0209-0213） 2026.02.24 量化择时和拥挤度预警周报（20260220） 2026.02.22 高频选股因子周报（20260209-202602 ...

红利风格择时周报（0224-0227） [Table_Authors] 郑雅斌(分析师) 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 金 融 工 本报告导读： 上周（20260224 至 20260227）红利风格择时模型综合因子值为-0.10，在连续两周为 正值后转为轻微负向信号，前一周（20260209 至 20260213）因子值为 0.09。 投资要点： | | 021-23219395 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyabin@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040105 | | | 梁誉耀(分析师) | | | 021-38038665 | | | liangyuyao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524080003 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 低频选股因子周报（2026.02.13-2026.02.27） 2026.03.01 量化择时和拥挤度预警周报（20260227） 2026.02.28 红利风格择时周报（0209-0213） 2026.02.24 量化择时和拥挤度预警周报（20260220） 2026.02.22 高 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in travel during the Spring Festival, with total passenger flow expected to reach 9.5 billion, marking a historical high. Self-driving remains the dominant mode of transport, with a daily average of 261 million trips, accounting for nearly 85% of total travel [13][35] - The report indicates a recovery in consumer spending, particularly in the retail and tourism sectors, driven by long holiday periods, consumption vouchers, and promotional events. Key retail and catering enterprises saw a daily average sales increase of 5.7% during the Spring Festival [25][30] - The film box office during the Spring Festival saw a significant decline, with revenues dropping to 5.752 billion, the lowest since 2018, and average ticket prices also decreased [31][34] Information Technology Industry - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Index showed upward trends, with DRAM prices increasing and MLCC revenues rising significantly in January [4][7] - The report notes a general increase in prices across the semiconductor sector, with NAND index rising by 5.58% [8] Midstream Manufacturing - Prices in the new energy supply chain have generally increased, particularly for lithium raw materials, while sales growth in major engineering machinery companies showed mixed results [4][7] - The report mentions a decrease in the year-on-year growth rate of cargo throughput at Chinese ports, indicating a potential slowdown in midstream manufacturing activity [4][7] Consumer Demand - The report observes an increase in sugar prices, while pork prices have declined. The average wholesale price of pork fell by 0.17% [4][7] - The average ticket price for movies decreased by 5.9%, reflecting a broader trend of reduced consumer spending in the entertainment sector [31][34] Resource Products - The report indicates a decline in rebar prices, while coal prices remained stable. Brent crude oil prices increased, and the chemical product price index showed a general upward trend [4][7] - Industrial metal prices have generally risen, with copper, tin, zinc, cobalt, nickel, and aluminum prices increasing, while inventories for most metals have decreased [4][7] Financial and Real Estate Sector - The report highlights a net injection in the money market, with SHIBOR rates rising. A decrease in A-share turnover and daily transaction volume was noted [4][7] - The report indicates a decline in land transaction premium rates and a decrease in the area of commercial housing sold [4][7] Public Utilities - The report notes a decrease in natural gas ex-factory prices, while electricity generation growth rates have slowed [4][7]

Company Performance - Tianzhen Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 1.2 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 125% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 90 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 301% [4] - The company is a leading exporter of PVC composite flooring, and its new RPET flooring has achieved mass production and received bulk orders [4] Stock Market Activity - On the day of reporting, Tianzhen's stock price closed at 24.78 yuan, with a daily increase of 8.16%, and the intraday high reached 25.46 yuan, resulting in a fluctuation of 11.92% [2] - The trading volume amounted to 173 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 12.84%, indicating a significant increase in trading activity [2] - Despite a net outflow of 5.5147 million yuan from institutional funds, retail investors contributed a net inflow of 550,500 yuan [3] Industry Outlook - The penetration rate of PVC flooring in the U.S. market continues to rise, and Chinese enterprises hold a competitive advantage in the supply chain [5] Technical Indicators - Technical indicators show that the stock price has broken through the 20-day moving average and the upper Bollinger Band, with the MACD histogram turning positive and the KDJ J value rising to 86.13, indicating strong short-term momentum [6] - However, the selling pressure is evident with a委比 of -72.91% [6]

中金研究 我们在 2024 年 1 月的报告《 从四维指数看行业景气度 》中，综合库存、需求、盈利、供给 4 个维度的指标，初步搭建了一个中观行业的打分卡框架。我 们结合当前宏观经济形势，对该框架做了优化调整并更新了最新情况。截至 2025 年三季报的数据显示，国防军工、汽车、有色金属等行业从供需格局 看得分较高，呈现更高的景气度。基于打分卡构建的行业指数组合，亦可实现一定的超额收益。 点击小程序查看报告原文 基于当前"供强需弱"的宏观背景和前述经济特征，我们对打分卡框架做了优化，提高了需求指标（营收增速）在打分卡中的权重，并增加了外需占比这一 考察维度，将打分卡拓展为5维数据。 具体而言，行业得分是库存水平（库存增速历史分位数，权重10%）、需求增长（营业收入TTM同比增速，权重 40%）、盈利能力（销售毛利率TTM历史分位数，权重20%）、供给扩张（资本开支-折旧摊销的3年滚动之和占固定资产+在建工程+无形资产的比重，权 重20%）、外需占比（海外业务收入TTM占营业收入比重，权重10%）5个维度得分的加权求和。5项得分数值在0-1之间，需求类指标数值越高（表明需 求越好）得分越高，供给类指标数值越低（表 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略专题研究 | 中国策略 策略专题研究 报告日期：2026 年 02 月 05 日 涨价品种出现分化，券商景气度高增 ——行业景气度跟踪报告（2026 年 2 月） 核心观点 上游周期品中，前期涨价品种出现一定程度的分化。从周环比数据看，有色金属中仅 黄金价格出现上涨，白银和其他工业金属出现不同程度的下行，石油石化、基础化工 等细分品种价格亦出现一定回落。双焦价格回暖。TMT 中，半导体销售周期上行行业 景气度不减。下游消费品中，飞天茅台当年散装价格环比上行，支撑白酒走强。金融 地产方面，两市成交额放大，两融余额处于高位，彰显券商景气高增。 ❑ 上游周期 1）有色金属：价格出现分化，comex 黄金价格周环比上行；2）煤炭：煤炭开采 和洗选 PPI 同比增速修复，双焦价格回暖；3）石油石化：石油和天然气开采业 PPI 下行，原油价格承压 ❑ 中游周期 1）钢铁：铁矿石和螺纹钢价格周环比上行；2）基础化工：主要品种价格下行； 3）建筑材料：行业景气度仍处于相对低位；4）交通运输：海运业务走低，快递 业务增速放缓。 ❑ 中游制造 1）轻工制造：建材家居景气度下行，白卡纸价格处于低位。2）汽车： ...

A股2025年年度业绩预告披露正式收官。笔者认为，投资者可从行业景气度、内生增长韧性、困境反转 三个角度切入，参透上市公司业绩预告背后隐藏的投资"玄机"。 首先，锚定行业景气度，是解读业绩预告的首要前提。 行业赛道的冷暖，直接决定了企业业绩的基本盘。Wind资讯数据显示，在已披露去年业绩预告的上市 公司中，电子（半导体）、汽车零部件、电力设备行业是预增主力。具体来看，半导体领域，寒武纪受 益于行业算力需求的持续增长，预计2025年归属母公司的净利润超过18.5亿元，大幅扭亏；汽车零部件 领域，博俊科技受益于全国乘用车市场稳定增长及新能源汽车快速上量，预计去年盈利增超35%；电力 设备领域，明阳智能受益于全球新能源装机规模持续扩大，风机交付规模与销售收入同比显著扩张，预 计去年净利润同比增长超131.14%。这些行业或借国产化加速的东风，或乘新能源渗透率提升的浪潮， 持续夯实业绩增长的"压舱石"。 其次，聚焦经营韧性，辨别内生增长真实成色。 真正的增长应源于主营业务深耕，而非短期因素加持。例如，中科三环预计2025年扣非净利润大幅扭 亏，核心在于公司持续优化运营效率，稳步拓展市场份额；山外山作为国产血液净化设备 ...

- The report tracks the prosperity signals of various industries, including coal, livestock farming, steel, structural materials, and fuel refining industries[9] - The coal industry revenue and profit growth are estimated monthly based on price and capacity factors[10] - The livestock farming industry uses the farrowing sow inventory and the slaughter coefficient method to estimate the supply-demand gap for pigs six months later[15][16] - The steel industry profit growth and per-ton profit are predicted using comprehensive steel prices and cost indicators such as iron ore, coke, and scrap steel[18] - The structural materials and construction engineering industries' profitability changes are tracked using price and cost indicators for glass and cement manufacturing[24] - The fuel refining and oil service industries' profit growth and cracking spread are estimated based on changes in fuel oil prices and crude oil prices[27] - The coal industry profit growth for February 2026 is predicted to be slightly negative due to a slight year-on-year decrease in coal prices[14] - The livestock farming industry predicts a potential pig supply of 166.51 million heads for Q2 2026, with a demand forecast of 171.43 million heads, indicating a slightly tight supply-demand balance[17] - The steel industry profit growth for January 2026 is predicted to be slightly negative, with the rolling 12-period PMI average not exceeding the threshold[22] - The glass industry gross profit for January 2026 is predicted to continue its year-on-year negative growth[26] - The cement industry profit for January 2026 is predicted to continue its year-on-year negative growth, with no significant increase in new housing starts[26] - The fuel refining industry profit for January 2026 is predicted to slightly decrease year-on-year[27][28]

Group 1: Company Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of 600-660 million for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 52%-67% [2] - Growth is driven by increased business orders and shipment volumes, particularly in the data center and renewable energy sectors [2] - The company maintains an optimistic outlook for the next three to five years, expecting continued high demand in the data center and renewable energy industries [2] Group 2: Market Challenges - The company's gross margin is influenced by competition intensity, raw material price fluctuations, and exchange rate variations [3] - Domestic market competition is fierce, with major clients often engaging in bidding processes, which can lead to price competition [3] - In the overseas market, while gross margins are relatively stable due to strong customer relationships and the ability to pass some cost increases to clients, exchange rate fluctuations still pose a risk [3] Group 3: Business Development Strategies - The company employs different strategies for its data center business, focusing on proprietary brands domestically and ODM partnerships internationally [3] - There is a strong emphasis on expanding partnerships with major internet companies in China, such as ByteDance and Alibaba, while also broadening the scope of cooperation with overseas clients [3] - The company is actively working to establish a global market presence, particularly in emerging markets like North America and Australia, while solidifying its position in traditional markets [3] Group 4: Investor Relations - The company adheres to strict information disclosure regulations, ensuring that all communications are truthful, accurate, complete, timely, and fair [3] - There were no incidents of undisclosed significant information leaks during the investor relations activities [3]

业内人士认为，赛道基金走红，主要原因是其优异的业绩表现。多只有色金属赛道ETF今年涨幅超 30%，部分黄金股ETF更是涨超50%，远超市场平均水平。高收益诱惑下，投资者越涨越买，越买越推 升上涨，形成了资金抱团的循环。 少有常胜赛道 近期，赛道型基金进入聚光灯下。有色金属、AI等赛道型基金净值一路飙升，点燃投资者热情，大量 资金争相涌入。无论是主动还是被动产品，赛道型基金的吸金势头均更胜一筹。 赛道型基金的业绩锐度难免让人心动，但热闹之下，暗流涌动的风险也不容忽视。业内人士提示，应警 惕赛道型基金的"双刃剑"效应。 赛道型产品强劲吸金 区别于撒网式选股的全市场基金，赛道型基金剑指单一行业或主题。而在近期赛道型基金强势行情催化 下，有大量投资者蜂拥而至。 主动权益基金里，赛道型选手们上演大翻盘。2025年四季报显示，不少此前规模不足1亿元的小微基 金，靠着精准卡位高景气赛道，实现规模数十倍的暴增。 例如，某聚焦半导体产业的基金产品，首募不到1亿元，短短一个季度，其规模飙升至超90亿元，增长 超90倍。一家基金公司旗下的医药生物主题基金同样规模大增，从2025年三季度末的0.39亿元增至2025 年四季度末的8亿 ...