2025 年 10 月 10 日 总量研究 能繁母猪存栏微降，浮法玻璃盈利同比转正 ——金融工程行业景气月报 20251010 要点 行业景气度信号追踪 煤炭：25 年 9 月，煤价低于上年同期，我们预测 25 年 10 月行业利润同比下降， 维持煤炭行业中性观点。 畜牧养殖：25 年 8 月底能繁母猪存栏为 4038 万头，环比微降。据此我们预测 肉价至 26Q1 仍有持稳修复可能，维持中性信号，等待产能明显去化阶段。 普钢：我们预测 25 年 9 月普钢行业利润同比正增长。PMI 滚动均值环比持平， 维持普钢行业中性信号。 结构材料与建筑工程：我们测算 25 年 9 月浮法玻璃毛利同比转正，将玻璃行业 调至景气信号；我们预测水泥行业 25 年 9 月利润同比持平，继续等待房屋新开 工面积出现积极信号，维持水泥行业中性观点；9 月制造业 PMI 滚动均值环比持 平，商品房销售数据同比下降，预计基建托底预期难以发酵，维持建筑装饰行业 中性信号。 燃料型炼化与油服：我们预测燃料型炼化行业 25 年 9 月利润同比正增长。油价 尚未形成同比上行趋势，维持炼化、油服行业中性观点。 风险分析：报告结果均基于模型及历史 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates monthly revenue and profit growth rates for the coal industry based on changes in price and capacity factors[10][15] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The pricing mechanism is determined by the last price index of the previous month, which sets the sales price for the next month[10] 2. The model uses year-on-year changes in price factors and capacity factors to estimate revenue and profit growth rates on a monthly basis[10] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to track and predict industry profitability trends, but it is sensitive to price fluctuations and external shocks[15] 2. Model Name: Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model predicts the supply-demand gap for hogs six months in advance based on the relationship between sow inventory and hog slaughter rates[16][17] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model assumes a stable proportional relationship between quarterly hog slaughter and sow inventory lagged by six months[16] 2. The formula for the slaughter coefficient is: $ \text{Slaughter Coefficient} = \frac{\text{Quarterly Hog Slaughter}}{\text{Sow Inventory (Lagged 6 Months)}} $[16] 3. The potential supply six months later is calculated as: $ \text{Potential Supply (t+6)} = \text{Sow Inventory (t)} \times \text{Slaughter Coefficient (t+6)} $[17] 4. The potential demand six months later is estimated using historical quarterly slaughter data[17] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies hog price cycles but relies heavily on the accuracy of historical slaughter coefficients[17] 3. Model Name: Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model predicts monthly profit growth and per-ton profitability for the steel industry by integrating steel prices and raw material costs[19] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model incorporates comprehensive steel prices and costs of raw materials such as iron ore, coke, pulverized coal, and scrap steel[19] 2. Monthly profit growth rates and per-ton profitability are calculated based on these inputs[19] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a detailed view of profitability trends but may not fully capture external demand-side factors[23] 4. Model Name: Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model tracks profitability changes in the glass and cement industries using price and cost indicators, and generates allocation signals based on these changes[25] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model monitors price and cost indicators to assess profitability trends[25] 2. It incorporates manufacturing PMI and real estate sales data to evaluate macroeconomic impacts on industry expectations[25] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is useful for identifying short-term profitability trends but may be limited by the lag in macroeconomic data updates[26] 5. Model Name: Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model estimates profit growth and cracking spreads for the refining industry based on changes in fuel prices, crude oil prices, and new drilling activity[27] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model calculates profit growth rates using changes in fuel and crude oil prices[27] 2. Cracking spreads are derived from the difference between product prices and raw material costs[27] 3. Allocation signals are generated based on oil price trends and drilling activity[27] - **Model Evaluation**: The model captures key profitability drivers but may not fully account for geopolitical risks affecting oil prices[34][35] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Excess Return**: The coal industry underperformed the Wind All-A Index by -9.8% in August 2025[10] 2. Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Supply-Demand Balance**: The potential supply for Q1 2026 is estimated at 19,380 million heads, while the demand is forecasted at 19,476 million heads, indicating a slightly tight balance[18] 3. Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Profit Growth**: The steel industry is predicted to achieve positive year-on-year profit growth in August 2025[23] 4. Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Glass Industry**: Profit margins continued to decline year-on-year in August 2025, but the rate of decline narrowed[26] - **Cement Industry**: Profitability slightly declined year-on-year in August 2025[26] 5. Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Refining Industry**: Profit growth for August 2025 is predicted to be positive[28] - **Oilfield Services**: Oil prices in August 2025 were lower than the previous year, and drilling activity remained stable, leading to a neutral allocation signal[35]