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从国家治理看宏观:走出低质内卷,迈向高质量竞争
Orient Securities· 2025-08-07 05:24
Group 1: Economic Transition and Policy Implications - The transition from old to new economic drivers in China has been supported by both market forces and government policies, reflecting an improvement in national governance capabilities[3] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to enhance institutional frameworks to help enterprises escape low-efficiency competition and focus on high-quality competition in technology, quality, and branding[6] - Recent political meetings have emphasized the need for long-term institutional changes rather than short-term price adjustments, reinforcing the core intent of the "anti-involution" policy[10] Group 2: Industry Upgrades and Standards - The ultimate goal of the "anti-involution" initiative is to increase value, leading to accelerated industrial upgrades through quality enhancement and brand differentiation, particularly for state-owned and leading enterprises[12] - New standards are being developed to phase out outdated production capacities, with specific industries like polysilicon already revising energy consumption standards to eliminate inefficiencies[14] - Industry concentration is expected to rise, as evidenced by recent moves from leading companies to acquire smaller competitors, indicating a consensus on consolidation even among private firms[14] Group 3: Local Government and Market Dynamics - Local government behaviors have contributed to the phenomenon of "involution," necessitating a focus on regulating these actions to unify market practices and standards[17] - The shift from financial subsidies to a focus on business environment and talent competition is anticipated to foster technological upgrades and innovation[20] - The cessation of land finance "involution" will lead to a greater emphasis on existing industries and resource endowments, enhancing local competitive advantages[21] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - Risks include potential overestimation of export growth impacting macroeconomic policy space and the possibility of credit support for "anti-involution" measures leading to unintended policy tightening[22]