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报喜鸟(002154):继续充分计提存货减值,轻装上阵静待消费回暖
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been downgraded from "Buy" to "Outperform" [7]. Core Views - The company continues to make sufficient provisions for inventory impairment, positioning itself to wait for a recovery in consumer demand [1]. - The financial performance in the first half of 2025 was below expectations, with revenue of 2.391 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 197 million yuan, down 42.7% year-on-year [6][7]. - The company is facing a challenging domestic consumption environment, leading to increased strategic expenses and asset impairment provisions, which have pressured profit margins [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 5.153 billion yuan, with a slight increase to 5.183 billion yuan in 2025, and further growth expected in subsequent years [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to decline to 406 million yuan in 2025, with a gradual recovery to 528 million yuan by 2027 [6]. - The gross margin is expected to remain stable around 65%, while the return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 4.4% in 2025 to 10.2% by 2027 [6]. Brand and Channel Performance - The HAZZYS brand showed revenue growth of 8.4% in the first half of 2025, while the main brand reported a decline of 9.6% [7]. - Direct sales and online channels experienced growth, while offline franchise and group purchase channels faced pressure [7]. - The company continues to maintain a strong cash position, with over 1.6 billion yuan in cash and cash equivalents, providing a solid buffer against risks [7].