Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The real - estate policy support is increasing, and the active real - estate transactions in first - tier cities are expected to promote the market to "stop falling and stabilize". The policy toolbox may be further opened, aiming for a soft landing of the market [2]. - This week, the demand side shows that new - home sales are growing year - on - year, and automobile consumption is marginally improving. The production side has stable industrial production with the PTA operating rate recovering. The investment side sees the apparent consumption of rebar improving and its price rising. The trade side shows an increase in port throughput and a decline in export container shipping prices. The price side has a drop in agricultural product prices and a stable operation of the commodity futures market [1][3][4][5][6][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Demand: New - home sales increase year - on - year, and automobile consumption marginally improves - Real - estate: This week, the transaction area of commercial housing in 20 cities has improved both in terms of week - on - week and year - on - year. First - tier cities have seen a significant year - on - year increase. The transaction area of second - hand housing in key cities has mostly increased week - on - week. For example, in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, the second - hand housing transaction areas have increased [3][12]. - Consumption: Automobile consumption has recovered week - on - week, and movie - watching consumption has increased year - on - year. The national migration scale index has decreased week - on - week, and subway ridership has marginally declined [3]. 2. Production: Industrial production runs smoothly, and the PTA operating rate recovers - Mid - and upstream: The operating rate of Tangshan blast furnaces has increased week - on - week. The PTA operating rate has recovered, rising 1.4 pct to 77.2%. The operating rate of polyester filament has slightly increased, while the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants has decreased [4][51]. - Downstream: The operating rates of automobile all - steel tires and semi - steel tires have increased [4]. 3. Investment: The apparent consumption of rebar recovers, and the rebar price rises - The apparent consumption of rebar has improved, and its price has increased week - on - week. The cement shipping rate has remained flat week - on - week, the cement inventory ratio has increased, and the cement price has remained flat [5][67]. 4. Trade: Port throughput increases, and export container shipping prices decline - Export: Port container throughput has recovered, and the CCFI composite index has decreased week - on - week. The freight rates of European routes have decreased, while those of the US West and US East routes have increased. The BDI index has increased week - on - week [6][78]. - Import: The CICFI composite index has increased 0.4% week - on - week [6][79]. 5. Prices: Agricultural product prices decline, and the commodity futures market operates stably - CPI: The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices has decreased 0.3% week - on - week. Egg prices have risen, while fruit, vegetable, and pork prices have declined [7][90]. - PPI: The Nanhua industrial product price index has increased 1.1% week - on - week. Brent crude oil spot price has increased 1.4%, COMEX gold futures price has increased 0.9%, and LME copper spot price has increased 0.7%. In the commodity futures market, glass, coke, and coking coal have seen relatively large increases, while caustic soda and lithium carbonate have seen declines [7][95][104]. 6. Interest - rate bond tracking: The cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds this year has reached 99.3% - Next week (9/22 - 9/26), the planned issuance of interest - rate bonds is 447.1 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 138.9 billion yuan. As of September 19, the cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds this year is 99.3%, the cumulative issuance progress of new general bonds is 82.0%, and the cumulative issuance progress of new special bonds is 79.8% [8][110][115]. 7. Policy Weekly Observation: The central bank adjusts the open - market 14 - day reverse repurchase operation - On September 15, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange stated that relevant foreign exchange management measures need to be optimized and adjusted to adapt to the new situation of the real - estate market. - On September 16, nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued measures to expand service consumption. - On September 19, the central bank adjusted the open - market 14 - day reverse repurchase operation to a fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multi - price winning bid [121].

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor market is experiencing a recovery in demand as the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day approach, with Kweichow Moutai, as the industry leader, showing particularly strong market performance [1][2]. Sales Performance - Kweichow Moutai's sales began to improve in July, with August showing a month-on-month increase in terminal sales of approximately 15% to 35%, and September is expected to see year-on-year growth [2][3]. - The company's management indicated that terminal sales have significantly increased since late August, with expectations for further improvement as the traditional double festival approaches [2][3]. Market Sentiment - The recovery in sales is attributed to a noticeable improvement in market sentiment and confidence among distributors, driven by a recovery in dining consumption and the upcoming festive demand [3][4]. - Kweichow Moutai's management has actively engaged with over 200 distributors to boost confidence and stabilize market sentiment [4]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on long-term strategies, including maintaining production capacity and optimizing product distribution to adapt to market conditions [5][6]. - Kweichow Moutai is enhancing its supply-demand alignment and upgrading its distribution channels, which include traditional distributors, supermarkets, e-commerce, and direct sales [6]. International Expansion - The company has seen a 31.3% year-on-year increase in overseas revenue, indicating significant progress in its international market strategy [6]. - Kweichow Moutai is deepening its international market presence through various initiatives, including cultural events and training for overseas distributors [6]. Financial Confidence - The company has established a three-year dividend plan with a minimum payout ratio of 75% and is planning a new round of share buybacks, reflecting its confidence in future growth [7]. - Kweichow Moutai's recovery is attributed to both the improving consumer environment and its strategic focus on core business fundamentals [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been downgraded from "Buy" to "Outperform" [7]. Core Views - The company continues to make sufficient provisions for inventory impairment, positioning itself to wait for a recovery in consumer demand [1]. - The financial performance in the first half of 2025 was below expectations, with revenue of 2.391 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 197 million yuan, down 42.7% year-on-year [6][7]. - The company is facing a challenging domestic consumption environment, leading to increased strategic expenses and asset impairment provisions, which have pressured profit margins [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 5.153 billion yuan, with a slight increase to 5.183 billion yuan in 2025, and further growth expected in subsequent years [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to decline to 406 million yuan in 2025, with a gradual recovery to 528 million yuan by 2027 [6]. - The gross margin is expected to remain stable around 65%, while the return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 4.4% in 2025 to 10.2% by 2027 [6]. Brand and Channel Performance - The HAZZYS brand showed revenue growth of 8.4% in the first half of 2025, while the main brand reported a decline of 9.6% [7]. - Direct sales and online channels experienced growth, while offline franchise and group purchase channels faced pressure [7]. - The company continues to maintain a strong cash position, with over 1.6 billion yuan in cash and cash equivalents, providing a solid buffer against risks [7].

Economic Overview - The overall economic operation in China remained stable in July, with various fiscal policies continuing to exert influence and accelerate infrastructure project construction [1] Government Investment and Infrastructure - Government investment has increased, leading to a faster pace of engineering construction [2] - National engineering machinery workload increased by 4.44% month-on-month, indicating a quicker pace in infrastructure project construction, particularly in road equipment, which reflects ongoing large-scale projects [3] - 20 provinces in China reported a construction start rate exceeding 50%, with 12 provinces, including Hubei, Jiangxi, Guizhou, Qinghai, and Guangxi, showing month-on-month growth [5] - From January to July, the cumulative year-on-year growth of project bidding amounts was 31.9%, indicating a robust investment climate [7] - Major economic provinces like Jiangsu, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Sichuan, and Shandong accounted for nearly 40% of the national project bidding amounts in July, continuing to play a leading role in investment [9] Industrial Production - Industrial production maintained steady growth in July, with strong innovation and development momentum among enterprises [10] - The industrial park production heat index increased by 21.9% year-on-year in July, with the average operating rate of major industrial products rising by 2.6 percentage points compared to the same period last year [11] - The operational vitality index for startups and technology innovation enterprises grew by 35.2% and 24.9% year-on-year, respectively, with five provinces showing over 50% growth in startup vitality [13] Consumer Activity - The consumer market continued to recover in July, with both online and offline consumption showing improvement [14] - The online service consumption heat index increased by 9.7% year-on-year, indicating stable consumer vitality related to daily life [15] - Offline consumption showed even more significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 20.9% in the consumption heat index, particularly in regions like Ningxia, Guangxi, Anhui, Tianjin, and Henan [17] - Home appliance consumption surged, with key categories seeing a 36.7% year-on-year increase in online retail sales, particularly in air conditioning [19] - The migration scale index increased in July, with a month-on-month rise of 15.3% and a year-on-year rise of 16.1%, reflecting heightened travel enthusiasm among residents [20]

Core Viewpoint - With the recovery of consumer spending, Beiding Co., Ltd. (300824.SZ), focusing on high-end small home appliances, has seen significant growth in its performance in the first half of 2025 [2][5]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 432 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.05% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 55.83 million yuan, up 74.92% year-on-year [5]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 53.20 million yuan, reflecting an 86.07% increase year-on-year [5]. - The operating cash flow for the first half of 2025 was 13.04 million yuan, a growth of 79.40% compared to the previous year [5]. Business Segments - The company's core business is driven by its "Beiding BUYDEEM" brand and OEM/ODM operations [6][7]. - The domestic business of the Beiding BUYDEEM brand saw a revenue increase of 48.4%, contributing to an overall revenue growth of 43.6% to 356 million yuan, which accounted for 82.49% of total revenue [6][7]. - The sales expenses increased by 41.17% to 123 million yuan, indicating a significant investment in marketing [5]. Market Trends - The kitchen small appliance market showed signs of stabilization, with a retail value of 609 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a slight decline of 0.8% year-on-year [4]. - The company is actively expanding its international influence through e-commerce opportunities, with overseas markets covering North America, Japan, and Southeast Asia [8]. Strategic Developments - Beiding Co., Ltd. plans to acquire 100% equity of Zhongshan Keri Automation Technology Co., Ltd. for 156 million yuan to enhance its manufacturing capabilities and meet operational demands [9]. - The company is also increasing its offline experience stores, which play a crucial role in brand exposure and consumer engagement, with a revenue increase of 49.35% to 34.12 million yuan from these stores [7].

Economic Performance - Zhuhai's GDP for the first half of the year reached 224.365 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8% [1] - The primary industry added value was 3.004 billion yuan, growing by 3.7%; the secondary industry decreased by 1.3% to 91.755 billion yuan; the tertiary industry increased by 7.4% to 129.606 billion yuan [1] Industrial Growth - The industrial output value above designated size in Zhuhai grew by 5.5% year-on-year, with an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - The "4+3" industries saw an increase of 7.2%, with high-end equipment manufacturing, integrated circuits, new energy, and new generation information technology growing by 17.9%, 16.4%, 16.0%, and 15.2% respectively [1] Service Sector - The service sector's added value increased by 7.4%, with information transmission software and IT services growing by 12.1% and leasing and business services by 10.7% [2] - From January to May, the revenue of the service sector above designated size reached 69.681 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.7% [2] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of social consumer goods in Zhuhai reached 46.946 billion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year [2] - Retail sales of daily necessities increased by 9.3%, with home appliances and audio-visual equipment sales growing by 40.9% and communication equipment by 131.9% [2] Foreign Trade - Zhuhai's total import and export volume reached 168.265 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%, marking a historical high for the same period [2] - Exports totaled 115.417 billion yuan, growing by 4.7%, while imports increased by 19.5% to 52.848 billion yuan [2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Zhuhai decreased by 38.4% year-on-year, with industrial investment down by 28.0% [3] - Industrial technological transformation investment grew by 10.3%, while infrastructure investment fell by 40.6% and real estate development investment decreased by 42.1% [3] Agricultural Developments - The primary industry saw a year-on-year growth of 4.9%, with fishery output valued at 5.072 billion yuan, accounting for 76.9% of the total agricultural output [3] - Notable projects include the establishment of the first modern marine ranch in the country and the launch of the world's first deep-sea aquaculture vessel [3]

Group 1: Overall Consumption Trends - The overall consumption market shows a gradual recovery, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.6% in Q1 and 5.4% in Q2, leading to a total retail sales of 24.5 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, contributing 52% to economic growth [1][5] - However, in June, the year-on-year growth rate of retail sales dropped to 4.8%, lower than the GDP growth rate of 5.3%, indicating a more complex reality in the consumption market [1][5] - The decline in June reflects a shift in consumer behavior, with spending moving from high-ticket dining to more affordable options like snacks and fast food [3][5] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Spending Patterns - In June, restaurant income growth slowed significantly to 0.9% compared to 5.9% in May, with high-end dining establishments experiencing a 0.4% decline in revenue [3][5] - Retail sales of discretionary items such as beverages, tobacco, and cosmetics also saw a year-on-year decline, indicating consumers are more cautious with non-essential spending [3][5] - Households are increasing savings, with new household deposits rising by 10.77 trillion yuan while loans only grew by 1.17 trillion yuan, reflecting a conservative financial strategy [5] Group 3: Impact of E-commerce and Instant Retail - Online retail sales grew by 8.5% year-on-year in the first half of the year, significantly outpacing overall retail sales growth, with online sales accounting for 24.9% of total retail sales [5] - Instant retail is rapidly gaining traction, with major internet platforms enhancing local merchant partnerships and logistics to offer delivery within 30 minutes, posing a significant threat to traditional supermarkets [6][8] - Traditional supermarkets are losing customer appeal as consumer habits shift towards convenience and immediate fulfillment, leading to a decline in foot traffic [6][8] Group 4: Challenges Facing Traditional Supermarkets - Traditional supermarkets are struggling, with limited growth in sales despite efforts to optimize store experiences and product offerings [9][12] - Financial reports indicate significant losses for major supermarket chains, such as Zhongbai Group and Yonghui Supermarket, highlighting the difficulties in reversing declining trends [8][12] - The fundamental issue lies in the mismatch of business models, as instant retail increasingly meets consumer needs more effectively than traditional supermarkets [11][12] Group 5: Price Trends and Economic Pressures - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year decline of 0.1% in the first half of 2025, marking the first negative growth for this period in recent years [13][15] - There is a structural divergence in price trends, with commodity prices declining while service prices are rising, creating challenges for traditional retailers [15][17] - Retailers face pressure from falling prices in core categories like fresh produce and daily necessities, which compresses profit margins and intensifies competition [17][19] Group 6: Strategic Recommendations for Retailers - Retailers need to move beyond simple price competition and focus on enhancing supply chain efficiency, developing private labels, and enriching service experiences to create differentiated competitive advantages [20] - The current market environment necessitates a structural approach to building cost and value barriers to better navigate cyclical changes [20]

Core Insights - The 2025 China Fashion Retail and Consumption Development Summit was held in Nanjing, focusing on "Intelligent Chain Fashion New Ecology, AI Driven New Momentum" [1] - Keynote speaker Zhou Qian from KPMG shared insights on new consumption trends, policy benefits, and capital empowerment in the retail sector [1] Group 1: Macro Overview and Sub-industry Trends - In 2025, China's economy is showing a stable start, with policies promoting a continuous recovery in consumption, characterized by timely, pragmatic, and flexible measures [3] - Zhou Qian analyzed trends in sub-industries such as luxury and fashion, health and beauty, and food and beverages [3] Group 2: Yangtze River Delta Consumption Promotion Policies - The consumption policies in the Yangtze River Delta are transitioning from short-term stimulus to institutional innovation, creating a multi-layered and differentiated policy matrix [4] - The region combines central policy guidance with local innovative practices for a comprehensive implementation approach [4] Group 3: Insights on Chinese Enterprises Going Global Amid Global Tariff Storm - Zhou Qian provided insights on the impact of international conditions on Chinese enterprises going global, noting that labor-intensive products are the most affected [5] - Strategies for short-term and medium-term responses, as well as trends in overseas mergers and acquisitions, were discussed to provide new ideas for industry representatives [5] Group 4: Capital Market Overview - In Q1 2025, the global IPO market cautiously started amid pressures from trade tariffs, interest rate uncertainties, and geopolitical conflicts [6] - The Hong Kong market benefited from optimized listing approval processes and increased mainland enterprises listing, with consumer goods leading in both the number of listings and fundraising amounts [6] - KPMG continues to focus on retail and consumer goods industry trends, aiming to explore new opportunities and promote high-quality development in the sector [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increasing differentiation in the Chinese liquor market, with a rising concentration of the top six companies (CR6) and a notable resilience among leading enterprises, despite overall declines in operational indicators and rising costs [1] - The white liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment period characterized by "stock competition + structural upgrades," presenting both challenges and opportunities. Companies need to enhance supply-side quality and efficiency while accurately reaching demand-side targets to reshape growth logic [1] - Current demand for white liquor is at a historical low, with limited downside risks. A relatively loose policy environment is expected to support a gradual recovery in consumption, with short-term rigid demand and potential improvements in banquet demand due to low base effects [1] Group 2 - In the broader consumer goods sector, there is a rising interest in yellow wine, while beer consumption is entering a peak season. The raw milk prices in the dairy industry have stabilized, and segments like snacks and energy drinks are experiencing high growth [2] - The food and beverage sector shows a strong willingness to distribute dividends, with expectations for an overall increase in dividend rates led by benchmark companies like Moutai and Wuliangye [2] - The Food and Beverage ETF (515170) tracks the CSI segmented food and beverage industry index, focusing on high-barrier and resilient sectors such as liquor, beverages, dairy, and seasoning products, providing a convenient investment tool for small capital investors [2]

Group 1: Overall Production Trends - In June 2025, the total production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines reached 35.15 million units, a 7.3% increase compared to the same period last year [1] - The production of household air conditioners in June was 20.5 million units, up 11.5% year-on-year; refrigerators produced 7.9 million units, a 3.6% increase; and washing machines remained flat at 6.75 million units [1] Group 2: Air Conditioner Market Insights - Domestic air conditioner production surged, with June 2025 figures showing 13.66 million units, a 29.3% increase year-on-year; July saw 11.37 million units, up 22.8%; however, August experienced a decline to 6.938 million units, down 9.2% [2] - Export production for air conditioners in June was 6.84 million units, an 18.3% decrease year-on-year, with July and August also showing declines of 16.9% and 6.6% respectively [2] Group 3: Refrigerator Market Insights - Domestic refrigerator production in June 2025 was 3.34 million units, a 4.3% increase year-on-year, driven by promotional activities and government subsidies [4] - Export production for refrigerators in June was 4.56 million units, down 6.6% year-on-year, influenced by fluctuating global trade conditions and tariff policies [5] Group 4: Washing Machine Market Insights - Domestic washing machine production in June 2025 was 2.93 million units, a 1.0% increase year-on-year, but the market is entering a traditional off-season with declining growth [6] - Export production for washing machines in June was 3.82 million units, a slight decrease of 0.9% year-on-year, following two years of high growth [7]