信息技术等(涵盖标普500多行业)

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宏观月报 | 海外资金行为“新变化”(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
申万宏源宏观· 2025-08-17 23:34
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the U.S. economy showed resilience in July, leading to a reversal in the global capital "rebalancing" trend, with funds flowing back to the U.S. [2][8] - In July, the U.S. economy was characterized by inflation pressures exceeding stagnation, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate to 4.2% and a notable GDP rebound of 3.5 percentage points to 3.0% in Q2 [3][9] - The S&P 500 companies reported earnings and revenues that exceeded market expectations, which boosted market sentiment and attracted foreign capital back to U.S. assets, with foreign investments in U.S. stocks and bonds increasing by $11.36 billion and $11.34 billion respectively [3][18] Group 2 - In July, the "anti-involution" policies in China were positively received, with multiple measures being implemented to combat low-price competition and promote the exit of outdated production capacity [4][40] - The "anti-involution" policies led to a significant recovery in upstream prices, alleviating cost pressures and improving profit margins, with the PMI for major raw material purchasing prices rising by 3.1 percentage points to 51.5% [51] - However, the demand side showed weakness, with external demand performing better than internal demand, as exports to the U.S. fell by 5.6 percentage points to -21.6% [61] Group 3 - In August, the focus will be on the labor market trends in the U.S. and the continuation of "anti-involution" policies in China [5][73] - The U.S. labor market is expected to show signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate likely to remain elevated due to a shrinking number of job seekers and an expanding labor force [5][73] - In China, attention will be on the marginal changes in internal demand and the effectiveness of "anti-involution" measures, particularly in the context of rising upstream prices and their impact on downstream enterprises [5][73]