在经历了数年深度调整后，今年以来恒生指数迎来了一轮显著的估值修复行情。日前，惠理集团投资组 合总监盛今在接受上证报记者采访时表示，这一转变主要得益于全球资金向非美市场再平衡的趋势，以 及产业叙事引领下的资产重估。他说，尽管近期港股有所波动，但在多重利好因素推动下，市场中长期 前景依然值得看好。 在盛今看来，估值变化可能是外资更为重视的观察视角和底层逻辑之一。经过4年调整，恒生指数在 2024年底的市盈率低至约10.6倍，风险溢价处于历史90%分位以上，具备较高的安全边际。同时，国际 投资者逐渐形成一种共识，即越来越多中国企业具备全球竞争力，可能享有更高的估值溢价。截至今年 10月底，海外主动资金配置中国市场的比例升至7.2%。 盛今表示，当前港股的估值已位于历史均值上方1.5至1.7个标准差区间，短期内或存在一定回调压力。 但从中长期看，政策方向的日益清晰有助于改善市场预期。同时，海外资金流入的加速也将为市场提供 支撑，中国权益市场的中长期投资价值值得关注。 今年以来，南向资金持续呈现强劲流入态势。Choice数据显示，截至11月12日，今年以来南向资金累计 净流入规模已超1.2万亿元。 盛今表示，南向资金在 ...

Group 1 - The recent market news strengthens expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with Chairman Powell signaling a potential halt to balance sheet reduction and highlighting worsening labor market conditions [1] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates a stable overall labor market in the U.S., but with weak demand, further boosting rate cut expectations [1] - The offshore Hong Kong stock market, particularly the technology sector, is expected to benefit significantly from continued global liquidity [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Tech ETF (513130) has seen substantial inflows, with over 15.6 billion yuan invested in October 2025, indicating strong market interest [2] - The ETF's total shares have surpassed 50.36 billion, reaching a record high since its inception, reflecting robust demand [2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index, closely tracked by the ETF, represents a significant portion of the Hong Kong tech sector, including 30 leading companies across various industries [2] Group 3 - Long-term forecasts suggest that improvements in supply-demand dynamics may lead to a turning point in the Chinese economic cycle, with capital expenditure and R&D in the tech sector becoming new growth engines [2] - The combination of U.S. rate cuts and supportive policies in China is expected to attract continued inflows from southbound and foreign investors into Hong Kong stocks [2] - The Hang Seng Tech ETF offers advantages such as large scale, good liquidity, and low fees, making it a key tool for investors looking to capitalize on the recovery of the Hong Kong tech sector [2]

Group 1: Core Insights - Global risk appetite has been declining, with significant capital inflows into US fixed income funds and outflows from US small-cap and large-cap growth stocks [1] - The overall trend indicates a global capital rebalancing, with increased investment interest in emerging markets while US equities face outflow pressure [1] Group 2: Market Performance Review - In September 2025, the Hong Kong stock market outperformed globally, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 13.95% and the Hang Seng Index increasing by 7.49%, while markets in Vietnam and Germany saw slight declines [2] - Overall, most global stock markets rose in September, with technology growth stocks leading the performance [2] Group 3: Cross-Border Capital Flows - In September, the southbound trading of the Hong Kong Stock Connect maintained a net buying trend, reaching a year-to-date high in net inflow, primarily into non-essential consumer sectors [3] - Global funds saw significant inflows into fixed income funds and outflows from equity funds, reflecting a decrease in investor risk appetite [3] - QDII-ETF funds experienced substantial net inflows into the Hang Seng Tech sector, while other indices like the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index saw minor outflows [3]

Group 1 - International capital is reassessing and positioning in the Hong Kong stock market, indicated by Alibaba's stock surge and the presence of prestigious cornerstone investors in IPOs [1][4] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have led to a weaker dollar and declining U.S. Treasury yields, making Hong Kong an attractive destination for global capital inflows [1][2] - The total market capitalization of the Hong Kong securities market reached HKD 46.6 trillion by the end of August 2025, a 47% increase from HKD 31.8 trillion in the same period last year [2] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing significant liquidity improvements, attracting international capital due to its appealing valuation "discount" [2] - Foreign long-term funds are actively subscribing to cornerstone investments in Hong Kong IPOs, with notable companies like CATL and Hengrui Medicine receiving strong interest [4] - As of September 17, foreign net inflows into offshore Chinese stocks reached USD 1.86 billion, marking the highest weekly inflow since November of the previous year [4] Group 3 - The Hang Seng Tech Index has risen over 41.5% year-to-date as of September 24, with Alibaba's market capitalization returning to HKD 3 trillion [3] - Major foreign investment banks have recently issued bullish reports on well-known Hong Kong-listed companies, indicating a positive outlook for Chinese assets [5] - Analysts expect continued foreign inflows into Hong Kong stocks as companies in sectors like AI, internet, and innovative pharmaceuticals show strong growth momentum [5]

Group 1 - In July, the US economy showed resilience, with inflation pressures greater than stagnation, leading to a reversal of the global "rebalancing" trend, with capital flowing back to the US [4][9][8] - The US unemployment rate in July was 4.2%, aligning with market expectations, while the second-quarter GDP rebounded, indicating overall economic strength despite structural weaknesses [4][9][17] - The S&P 500 companies reported earnings and revenues that exceeded market expectations, which boosted market sentiment and attracted foreign capital back to US assets, with foreign investments in US stocks increasing by $11.36 billion [4][17][9] Group 2 - In July, domestic "anti-involution" policies were beneficial, with multiple measures implemented to combat low-price competition, leading to a significant recovery in upstream prices [5][36][41] - The "anti-involution" policies positively impacted the supply side, alleviating cost pressures and improving profit margins, with industrial profits showing a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [5][36][53] - However, demand remained weak, with external demand performing better than internal demand, as evidenced by a 9% year-on-year decline in retail sales in the passenger car market [5][53][54] Group 3 - In August, the focus will be on the labor market trends in the US and the continuation of "anti-involution" policies in China [6][63] - The US labor market showed signs of weakness, with a rising unemployment rate and a contraction in the number of people finding jobs, indicating potential challenges for economic growth [6][63][64] - In China, attention will be on the marginal changes in domestic demand and the effectiveness of "anti-involution" measures on mid- and downstream enterprises [6][7][63]

Group 1 - The article discusses the resilience of the US economy in July, highlighting better-than-expected economic performance and the impact of strong Q2 earnings reports, which led to a reversal in global capital "rebalancing" towards the US [2][8] - In July, the US inflation unexpectedly increased, with online retail prices rising due to higher tariffs, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, indicating economic strength despite structural weaknesses [3][9] - The S&P 500 companies reported earnings and revenues that exceeded market expectations, attracting foreign capital back to the US, with foreign investments in US stocks increasing by $11.36 billion [3][18] Group 2 - In July, China's "anti-involution" policies gained traction, with multiple measures implemented to alleviate cost pressures and improve profit margins, particularly in upstream sectors [4][40] - The "anti-involution" policies positively impacted supply-side prices, with the PMI for major raw material purchasing prices rising by 3.1 percentage points to 51.5%, indicating reduced cost pressures [51] - However, demand-side performance remained weak, with external demand showing temporary improvement compared to internal demand, as evidenced by a 9% year-on-year decline in retail sales of passenger vehicles [61] Group 3 - In August, the focus will shift to the labor market trends in the US and the continuation of "anti-involution" policies in China, with concerns about the potential for rising unemployment rates [5][73] - The US unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in July, with a contraction in the number of people finding jobs, indicating a potential weakening of domestic demand [5][73] - China's policies are expected to continue influencing the market, particularly in terms of structural monetary policy tools and the impact on consumer demand [5][40]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the U.S. economy showed resilience in July, leading to a reversal in the global capital "rebalancing" trend, with funds flowing back to the U.S. [2][8] - In July, the U.S. economy was characterized by inflation pressures exceeding stagnation, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate to 4.2% and a notable GDP rebound of 3.5 percentage points to 3.0% in Q2 [3][9] - The S&P 500 companies reported earnings and revenues that exceeded market expectations, which boosted market sentiment and attracted foreign capital back to U.S. assets, with foreign investments in U.S. stocks and bonds increasing by $11.36 billion and $11.34 billion respectively [3][18] Group 2 - In July, the "anti-involution" policies in China were positively received, with multiple measures being implemented to combat low-price competition and promote the exit of outdated production capacity [4][40] - The "anti-involution" policies led to a significant recovery in upstream prices, alleviating cost pressures and improving profit margins, with the PMI for major raw material purchasing prices rising by 3.1 percentage points to 51.5% [51] - However, the demand side showed weakness, with external demand performing better than internal demand, as exports to the U.S. fell by 5.6 percentage points to -21.6% [61] Group 3 - In August, the focus will be on the labor market trends in the U.S. and the continuation of "anti-involution" policies in China [5][73] - The U.S. labor market is expected to show signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate likely to remain elevated due to a shrinking number of job seekers and an expanding labor force [5][73] - In China, attention will be on the marginal changes in internal demand and the effectiveness of "anti-involution" measures, particularly in the context of rising upstream prices and their impact on downstream enterprises [5][73]

Group 1: Macro Economic Overview - In July, the US economy showed resilience with a GDP growth rate of 3.0%, up by 3.5 percentage points from the previous quarter[2] - The unemployment rate in July rose slightly to 4.2%, aligning with market expectations[2] - Inflation pressures increased in July, driven by rising retail prices due to elevated tariffs and previous import consumption[2] Group 2: Market Trends and Foreign Investment - The S&P 500 companies reported earnings and revenues that exceeded market expectations, boosting market sentiment[2] - Foreign investment in US assets increased significantly, with inflows of $11.36 billion into US stocks and $11.34 billion into US bonds in July[2] - The US dollar index rose from 96.6 at the beginning of July to 100.0 by the end of the month, supported by foreign capital inflows[2] Group 3: Domestic Policy and Economic Impact - The "anti-involution" policies implemented in July positively impacted upstream prices, alleviating cost pressures and improving profit margins[3] - Despite positive supply-side effects, demand remained weak, with external demand performing better than domestic demand in July[3] - The focus on "anti-involution" policies is expected to continue, with attention on their effects on mid-to-low-end enterprises and marginal changes in domestic demand[4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a new round of "preventive" interest rate cuts in September 2024, with concerns over tariffs causing inflationary pressures to temporarily halt the rate cuts [1] - Recent data shows that July's non-farm employment figures were weaker than expected, and the core inflation rate for July has seen a decline in prices for core goods heavily reliant on imports [1] - The PPI data for July exceeded expectations, but its direct impact on the PCE index is limited, indicating that inflationary pressures from tariffs are manageable in the short term [1] Group 2 - Key sectors to focus on include high-growth hard technology sectors such as overseas computing power supply chains and certain stabilized leaders in the new energy sector [1] - Other sectors of interest are those with clear upward trends, such as innovative pharmaceuticals, and core Chinese assets with global competitive advantages, including leading internet companies in Hong Kong [1] Group 3 - The logic of global capital rebalancing suggests that as the U.S. economic fundamentals weaken, funds will flow towards non-U.S. assets with stronger short-term growth prospects [4] - Assets likely to attract global capital include safe-haven assets like gold and cryptocurrencies, as well as developed market assets with recovery expectations, such as those in Europe and Japan [4] Group 4 - A-shares are positioned to attract foreign investment due to strong performance since July, and the narrowing of the interest rate differential between China and the U.S. post-rate cuts is expected to facilitate capital inflows [7] - The domestic economic fundamentals and policy changes anticipated in the second half of the year are expected to enhance foreign investor confidence [7] Group 5 - Historical data indicates that preventive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have generally led to positive performance in equity markets, with the S&P 500 showing significant gains during such periods [2][8] - The performance of the Shanghai Composite Index and the Hang Seng Index during previous preventive rate cuts suggests potential for similar outcomes in the upcoming cycle [8] Group 6 - Foreign capital tends to favor local assets that exhibit competitive advantages, with a focus on core industries and sectors that demonstrate stable and sustainable earnings [10] - The preference for industries with high current economic momentum indicates a strategic approach to investment in sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and leading internet companies [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant growth of Hong Kong's asset and wealth management industry, with total assets surpassing HKD 35 trillion and a net inflow of funds increasing by 81% in 2024 [1][2] - Chinese institutions have shown remarkable performance, with their management scale growing by 15% to HKD 3.09 trillion and net fund inflows surging by 68%, outperforming the industry average for five consecutive years [1][6][8] - The growth of Hong Kong's asset management sector is attributed to three main drivers: market performance, global capital rebalancing, and policy optimization [2][3] Group 2 - The report indicates that as of the end of 2024, the total value of managed assets in Hong Kong increased by 13% year-on-year, reaching HKD 35.14 trillion, with significant contributions from asset management and private banking sectors [2][4] - The rise in asset management scale is linked to the performance of the Hang Seng Index, which rose by 18% over the past year, and the Chinese dollar bond index, which increased by 12% [2][3] - The implementation of the "Interconnection 2.0" policy has facilitated a 2.4-fold increase in net inflows from southbound funds, accounting for 36% of the growth in retail asset management in Hong Kong [2][3] Group 3 - Chinese institutions have effectively leveraged their understanding of domestic investors' needs and preferences, leading to a competitive edge in the market [6][7] - The report notes that non-equity asset allocation has increased, with 59% of managed assets invested in non-stock categories, driven by proactive strategies and policy benefits [9][10] - The future growth of Chinese institutions is expected to be fueled by the optimization of interconnection mechanisms, continuous innovation, and advancements in technology [11][12]