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中金:基本面拐点确立 新能源车中游产业链价格有望进入修复通道
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-11 06:36
Core Insights - The global power battery installed capacity reached 307.3 GWh in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 31.1%, driven by higher single-vehicle battery capacity and faster battery demand growth [1][2] - The revenue of the entire power battery industry chain increased by 20.7% year-on-year and 11.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, while net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 59.4% year-on-year and 25.8% quarter-on-quarter, indicating an accelerating improvement in the industry fundamentals [1][3] Downstream New Energy Vehicle Demand - Global sales of new energy vehicles reached 5.4198 million units in Q3, a year-on-year increase of approximately 20.0%, with China, the US, and Europe showing year-on-year growth rates of 22.8%, 27.0%, and 28.8% respectively [2] - The domestic and European markets continued to show strong growth, while the US market experienced a rebound due to pre-purchase activities following subsidy reductions [2] Midstream of New Energy Vehicles - The midstream sector has established a fundamental turning point, with expectations of price reversals across the industry chain [3] - The upstream resources benefited from the rebound in lithium prices, leading to significant year-on-year profit improvements [3] - Certain segments, such as energy storage cells and 6F, are entering a trend of simultaneous volume and price increases [3] Charging Equipment and Services - The construction of public charging stations in China saw an increase of 84% year-on-year in Q3, indicating a recovery in market conditions [4] - Public charging volume reached 23.5 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 53%, supported by rising ownership and seasonal demand [4] - The overall revenue of the charging sector grew by 8.7% year-on-year, with net profit excluding non-recurring items increasing by 35.3% [4] Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks in the midstream of new energy vehicles include CATL (300750), Yiwei Lithium Energy (300014), Zhongxin Innovation (03931), Putailai (603659), Hongfa Technology (600885), Zhongrong Electric (301031), and Xidian New Energy (603312) [5] - Stocks to watch include Xinwanda (300207), Shangtai Technology (001301), Enjie (002812), and Xingyuan Material (300568) [5] - In the charging equipment and services sector, recommended stocks include Teruid (300001) and Wanma Co. (002276), with a watch on Shenghong Co. (300693) [5]