Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is expected to enter a new growth cycle starting in 2026, driven by stable supply-demand dynamics and advancements in solid-state battery technology [2][4]. Demand - A new growth cycle is emerging, with energy storage expected to become a core growth driver. The domestic market for new energy vehicles (NEVs) is benefiting from increased battery capacity and the expansion of new application scenarios, leading to sustained high growth in demand for power batteries [7][10]. - In 2026, the average battery capacity for domestic passenger vehicles is projected to continue increasing, supported by policy adjustments and the introduction of high-capacity fast-charging models [7]. - The European market is anticipated to see accelerated demand recovery in 2026, driven by the launch of new platform models and continued subsidies for NEVs [10]. Supply and Demand - The supply-demand inflection point is approaching, with a confirmed trend of price reversal. By 2025, the demand driven by energy storage is expected to exceed expectations, leading to improved supply-demand relationships and price increases in various segments of the lithium battery supply chain [11][17]. - The overall capacity utilization rate in the industry is expected to rise, with leading manufacturers operating at near full capacity by the third quarter of 2025 [17]. New Technology - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating towards commercialization, with several manufacturers expected to achieve small-scale production by 2026. The focus is on solid-state sulfide batteries, which are anticipated to reach mass production levels [30][31]. - Semi-solid batteries are also gaining traction due to their higher safety and energy density, with commercial production expected to ramp up in various sectors, including electric vehicles and energy storage [29][30]. Investment Strategy - The investment strategy includes focusing on energy storage demand exceeding expectations, which will drive a reversal trend in the sector. Key recommendations include lithium battery materials, batteries, and related components [5]. - New technologies, particularly solid-state and sodium batteries, are highlighted as high-growth investment directions, with significant breakthroughs expected in 2026 [5][34]. International Expansion - The lithium battery supply chain is accelerating its global manufacturing layout, with significant production expected to come online in 2026 across Europe and Southeast Asia. This expansion is anticipated to mitigate risks associated with geopolitical tensions and trade frictions [25][26]. - Companies are adopting new business models, such as technology licensing, to facilitate entry into markets with high trade barriers, exemplified by CATL's LRS model in the U.S. [27]. Charging Infrastructure - The domestic charging station construction is expected to benefit from supportive policies, while the U.S. market may see a surge in installations due to preemptive actions ahead of tariff impacts [39].

中金发布研报称，3Q25全球动力电池装机量307.3GWh、同比+31.1%，受单车带电量提升、电池需求增 长更快。动力电池全产业链3Q营收同比+20.7%、环比+11.4%；归母净利润同比+59.4%、环比+25.8%； 产业链基本面呈现加速改善趋势。分环节看，动力电池、四大材料环节受益稼动率提升、价格波动收 窄，盈利延续改善趋势，部分环节如储能电芯、6F等进入量价齐升趋势；锂电设备环节受益下游验收 提速及部分前期信用减值冲回，保持向好的趋势。 中金主要观点如下： 充电设备及服务：充电桩建设回暖，各环节业绩持续分化 3Q国内公共充电桩增量同增+84%、景气度有所回升；公共充电量达235亿度、同比+53%，随着保有量 提升和进入旺季，运营市场整体保持较高增速；3Q25充电板块整体营收同比+8.7%、扣非净利润同比 +35.3%。运营环节盈利稳中向好；充电设备环节受国内销售结构和市场竞争影响、盈利仍有所承压， 非充电业务回暖带动盈利改善。 标的方面 新能源车中游：推荐宁德时代（300750）(300750.SZ)、亿纬锂能（300014）(300014.SZ)、中创新航 (03931)、璞泰来（603659）( ...

Group 1: New Energy Vehicles - The new energy vehicle sector is expected to enter a new upward cycle starting in 2025, driven by improvements in supply-demand structure and price stabilization within the industry chain [6][7] - Key drivers include changes in demand structure, diversification of application scenarios, and the release of a new vehicle cycle overseas [6] - The introduction of high-voltage fast-charging and extended-range models is expected to increase the battery capacity per vehicle, expanding applications beyond passenger cars to include heavy trucks, engineering machinery, and electric ships [6][7] Group 2: Energy Storage - The energy storage market is anticipated to grow significantly due to declining prices of lithium batteries, inverters, and photovoltaic components, making "photovoltaic + energy storage" economically viable in many countries [4][10] - The global energy storage market is projected to maintain an upward trend, with expected annual shipments surpassing 600 GWh and growth rates exceeding 20% by 2026 [10] - The domestic energy storage market is expected to reach an economic turning point following policy reforms, while emerging markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America are becoming new growth areas [10][11] Group 3: Industrial Automation - The industrial automation sector is experiencing stable growth, with structural opportunities arising from the recovery of the new energy sector since 2025 [14][15] - The demand for high-performance power supply for AI data centers is driving growth in AIDC (Automated Identification and Data Capture) and robotics [15] - Companies are extending their existing technology into robotics, with a focus on humanoid robots and advanced motor technologies such as axial flux motors [15][16] Group 4: Power Equipment - The investment climate for domestic power grids is expected to remain positive, with a projected CAGR of around 7% for grid investment from 2026 to 2027 [17][19] - The focus on high-voltage direct current (HVDC) and flexible direct current transmission is expected to drive significant investment in the power grid [17] - The export potential for power equipment remains strong, with a 23% year-on-year increase in exports from January to August 2025, driven by global demand for renewable energy and grid modernization [19]