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2025年原油弱市拖累PTA价格 市场看好明年3月至5月行情
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-12-11 09:08
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the PTA market is experiencing fluctuations due to various factors, including inventory accumulation expectations and geopolitical issues affecting oil prices [1][2][3] - As of December 9, the average price of PTA for 2025 is reported at 4754 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 14% primarily due to falling oil prices and new PTA production capacity impacting market sentiment [1] - The WTI crude oil price has decreased from nearly 75 USD/barrel in June to approximately 58 USD/barrel, indicating a weak overall market for crude oil in 2025 [1] Group 2 - Short-term market analysis suggests that while PTA processing fees are low and supply-side pressures are easing, there is a weak expectation for demand, leading to a potential inventory accumulation in December [2] - Market participants are optimistic about the PTA market from March to May next year, anticipating a recovery in demand as no new PTA production capacity is expected to come online [3] - Seasonal patterns indicate that demand for PTA will decline in January and February, leading to increased inventory levels, but a significant recovery in demand is expected from March to May [3] Group 3 - The PX market is expected to benefit from planned maintenance of PX facilities in mainland China and other countries, which may support PTA prices [4] - Despite the anticipated strong demand for PTA in March to May 2026, the potential for a narrow decline in crude oil prices could negatively impact the PTA market [4] - Geopolitical factors, such as the easing of the Russia-Ukraine situation, may lead to increased crude oil supply, further pressuring oil prices and potentially affecting PTA market dynamics [4]