中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会发布的数据显示，本周，多晶硅N型复投料成交均价为4.79万元/吨，周环比上涨1.05%。N型颗粒硅成交均价为4.60万元/ 吨，周环比上涨3.37%。 在硅业分会看来，多晶硅企业减产控销缓解了市场供应压力。减产方面，各家多晶硅企业都有不同程度的减产计划，前两家头部企业的减产力度最大，开 工率下调将直接导致综合成本增加，"不得低于综合成本销售"的法规限制，导致市场预期价格继续上涨。控销方面，硅料企业控制出货，导致多晶硅供应 在减产基础上继续缩减，叠加价格上涨预期下"买涨不买跌"心态，下游囤货采购需求增加。因此，市场供需及价格预期等多方因素支撑本周硅料价格继续 上涨。 值得注意的是，电池片作为议价能力相对薄弱的环节，大幅受制于上下游压力传导，终端需求不足的状态仍未消除，9月市场观望情绪浓厚，组件厂不断 提出电池片降价要求。InfoLink判断，短期内电池片价格较难出现剧烈震荡，长远来看，随着政策有序推进，电池片价格有望在后续形成支撑。 组件方面，本周终端需求疲软影响仍在，新单成交规模较少，以执行前期订单为主，较低的销售价格水平拉低整体成交价格。InfoLink指出，近期组件开 标价格落 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market has increasing supply and demand, with rising total inventory. The fundamentals of steel and raw materials are weakening, but market expectations remain positive, and the price is expected to be volatile and weak [3]. - The iron ore price is relatively firm, and it is expected to be stronger than the steel price in the short - term, with prices fluctuating within a smaller range [20]. - The coal - coke market may fluctuate widely with market sentiment. In the future, it may return to the fundamental logic, and attention should be paid to the change in finished product inventory [30]. - The ferroalloy market has high supply pressure, and there is a possibility of inventory accumulation and price decline. Its price is affected by the volatile coking coal price [46]. - The soda ash market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of coal and raw salt on the cost side [60]. - The glass market is in a weak balance, with high intermediate inventory and weak production and sales. Attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term emotional changes [87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Market Situation**: This week, the supply and demand of the five major steel products both increased, and the total inventory continued to accumulate. The de - stocking pressure on the finished product side is prominent. The fundamentals of raw materials are also weakening [3]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the closing prices of steel futures contracts such as rebar and hot - rolled coil changed compared with the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3195 yuan/ton, down from 3200 yuan/ton the previous day [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The iron ore price is relatively firm in the black market. The price rebound space is limited due to the lack of strong demand or policy drivers. It is expected to be stronger than the steel price in the short - term and fluctuate within a smaller range [20]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the closing price of the iron ore 01 contract was 770 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton from the previous day [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: On August 22, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 240.75 tons, with a weekly increase of 0.09 tons. The 45 - port inventory was 13845.2 tons, with a weekly increase of 25.93 tons [24]. Coal - Coke - **Market Situation**: The short - term speculative sentiment in the market has cooled down, but the macro - sentiment may fluctuate widely. In the future, it may return to the fundamental logic, and attention should be paid to the change in finished product inventory [30]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the coking coal warehouse receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 1128 yuan/ton, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 120 yuan/ton [36]. Ferroalloy - **Market Situation**: Driven by profits, the ferroalloy output is increasing, with high supply pressure. There is a possibility of inventory accumulation and price decline, and its price is affected by the coking coal price [46]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 8 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton from the previous day [47]. Soda Ash - **Market Situation**: The supply of soda ash remains high, the rigid demand is weak, and the upper - middle stream inventory continues to reach new highs. The cost has increased slightly, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [60]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1379 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily increase of 1.25% [61]. Glass - **Market Situation**: The glass market is in a weak balance, with high intermediate inventory and weak production and sales. The near - end spot is under obvious pressure, and attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term emotional changes [87]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the glass 05 contract closed at 1269 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily increase of 1.36% [88].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the steel sector, the recovery of future demand may fall short of expectations due to the real - estate market still being in the process of bottom - building, and futures prices are under downward pressure. The short - term prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils may stabilize, and the medium - term trend is expected to be a wide - range oscillation. For iron ore, although there is room for an increase in steel mill's molten iron production after the military parade, the room for further increase is limited, and the medium - term trend is likely to be oscillatory [2][4] Group 3: Summary by Directory Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and demand**: Rebar production has decreased for the second consecutive week, apparent demand has increased from a decline, factory inventory has increased for the third consecutive week, and social inventory has increased for the sixth consecutive week. The total production and inventory of the five major steel varieties have increased, and apparent demand has also risen. With the end of the summer heat, apparent demand should gradually recover, and total inventory is expected to gradually decline [2] - **Technical analysis**: After a sharp decline, rebar and hot - rolled coils have stabilized and rebounded, with a decrease in open interest. Short - term prices may stabilize, and the medium - term will maintain a wide - range oscillation [2] - **Operation suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and patiently wait for a rebound to short [2] - **Data summary**: Various data such as futures and spot prices, basis, spreads, production, inventory, and apparent demand are presented in detail, including changes compared to the previous day and the previous week [2] Iron Ore - **Supply and demand**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, but the proportion of profitable steel mills has decreased. The molten iron production of 247 steel mills has increased slightly. After the military parade, there is room for an increase in molten iron production, but the room for further increase is limited. The global iron ore shipment is at a high level, and future arrivals are expected to increase. Port inventory shows signs of stabilizing [4] - **Technical analysis**: The 01 contract has stabilized near the middle track of the daily K - line Bollinger Band. Short - term prices may rebound to the upper track, but the overall Bollinger Band opening is narrowing, and the medium - term trend is likely to be oscillatory [4] - **Operation suggestion**: Close short positions in the short - term and then maintain a wait - and - see attitude [4] - **Data summary**: Comprehensive data on iron ore, including spot and futures prices, basis, spreads, shipment, freight, arrivals, inventory, etc., are provided, along with changes compared to the previous day and the previous week [4] Industry News - As of August 2025, 20 distressed real - estate enterprises have had their debt restructuring and reorganization approved, with a total debt resolution scale exceeding 120 billion yuan. Since 2022, 27 listed real - estate enterprises have been delisted passively, and several others have delisted through privatization [6] - Chengdu has introduced a new housing provident fund policy, with preferential measures for purchasing affordable housing [6] - Some steel mills in Tangshan and Xingtai plan to raise the price of coke [6] - The online auction of coking coal by Mongolia's ETT company on August 21 ended in failure [6] - As of the week of August 21, rebar production has decreased for the second consecutive week, and apparent demand has increased from a decline [6] - As of August 21, the operating rate and capacity utilization rate of the float - glass industry have remained stable, and the daily output has remained at the highest level of the year [7]

2025/8/21 10:23 【国富期货早间看点】AmSpec⻢棕8⽉前20⽇出⼝增加17.5% 作物巡查内布拉斯加州⾖荚数为22年来最⾼ 20250821 【国富期货早间看点】AmSpec马棕8月前20日出口增加17.5% 作物 巡查内布拉斯加州豆荚数为22年来最高 20250821 国富研究 国富研究 2025年08月21日 07:42 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日 涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜流跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油11(BMD) | 4529.00 | -0. 51 | 0. 71 | | 布伦特10(ICE) | 67.04 | 1.65 | 1.04 | | 美原油10(NYMEX) | 62.84 | 1. 35 | 0.92 | | 美豆11(CBOT) | 1035.50 | 0. 22 | -0. 29 | | 美豆箱12(CBOT) | 297.00 | 0. 44 | -0. 44 | | 美豆油12(CBOT) | 51. 41 | -0. 83 | -0. 52 | 02 现货行情 | 期货 | 现货 | 现货价 ...

Report Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures - bullish on dips; Treasury bonds - hold off [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar - range trading; Glass - weakening in a range; Coking coal and coke - range - bound [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - range trading or hold off; Aluminum - buy on dips after pullbacks; Nickel - hold off or short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - range trading [1][12][13] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC - weakening in a range; Soda ash - short 09 and long 05 arbitrage; Caustic soda - range - bound; Styrene - range - bound; Rubber - strengthening in a range; Urea - range - bound; Methanol - range - bound; Polyolefins - wide - range weakening [1][19][20] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - strengthening in a range; Apples - strengthening in a range; Red dates - strengthening in a range [1][35][36] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Hogs - short on rallies; Eggs - short on rallies; Corn - range - bound; Soybean meal - range - bound; Oils - strengthening in a range [1][37][38] Core Views - Market conditions are influenced by various factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand fundamentals, and international events. Different futures varieties present different trends and investment opportunities due to their own characteristics and external impacts [6][9][12] Summary by Categories Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: With the T + 0 function, maintain positions, lock in positions when there is a downward trend, and earn profits during the heat - up period. Consider the impacts of international events like China - India and US - Russia - Ukraine meetings [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: Although the bond allocation value is emerging and market sentiment is recovering, it is not recommended to enter the market aggressively due to potential disturbances from the equity market and possible chain - reactions from yield adjustments [6] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: Futures prices continue to decline. Considering factors like external trade policies, production, and inventory, it is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern. Focus on the [3100 - 3300] range for RB2510 [9] - **Glass**: Futures are in a weakening trend. With inventory pressure and potential policy impacts, the 09 contract is considered weak, and attention should be paid to the 930 - 950 support level [8][9][10] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal is in a game between tight supply and weakening demand, and is expected to be range - bound. Coke is supported by low inventory, high demand, and supply disturbances, and is also expected to be range - bound [10][11] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by macro - data and supply - demand fundamentals, it is expected to be range - bound with a slightly upward trend. The short - term operating range for Shanghai copper is 78000 - 79500 yuan/ton [12][13] - **Aluminum**: Despite short - term negative events, considering the transition from the off - season to the peak season, it is recommended to buy on dips [13][14] - **Nickel**: In the medium - to long - term, the supply is in surplus, and it is recommended to short on rallies moderately [16] - **Tin**: With improving supply and weakening demand in the off - season, it is recommended to conduct range trading, with the reference range for the SH09 contract being 257,000 - 276,000 yuan/ton [17] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by factors such as US economic data and geopolitical events, they are expected to be range - bound. It is recommended to buy on dips [17][18] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With high supply, uncertain export sustainability, and weak demand, it is expected to be in a weakening range. The 01 contract is temporarily focused on the 4900 - 5000 range [19][20][21] - **Caustic Soda**: With sufficient supply and rigid demand with a slow - down in growth, the 01 contract is expected to be range - bound in the 2550 - 2650 range [21][22] - **Styrene**: With limited fundamental positives and a warm macro - environment, the price is expected to be range - bound in the 7100 - 7400 range [23][24] - **Rubber**: With cost support and inventory reduction, it is expected to be in a strengthening range within the 15200 - 15600 range [25][27] - **Urea**: Affected by supply, demand, and export factors, the 01 contract is under pressure at 1820 - 1850 [28] - **Methanol**: With a slight decline in supply, stable demand from methanol - to - olefins, and weak traditional demand, the price is expected to be in a weakening range [30] - **Polyolefins**: With cost uncertainties and a slow recovery in downstream demand, the L2509 contract is focused on the 7200 - 7500 range, and the PP2509 contract is focused on the 6900 - 7200 range [30][31] - **Soda Ash**: Due to supply increases and potential inventory accumulation, it is recommended to hold short positions on the 09 contract [33] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: With improved global supply - demand, a better macro - environment, and expectations of the peak season, the price is expected to strengthen in a range [35] - **Apples**: Based on low inventory and growth impacts, the price is expected to maintain a high - level range - bound pattern [36] - **Red Dates**: With the current growth situation and market conditions, the price is expected to strengthen in a range [36] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: With supply pressure and different expectations for different contracts, it is recommended to lock in profits on short positions at low levels, add short positions at pressure levels, and pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [37][38] - **Eggs**: With sufficient short - term supply and uncertain long - term supply, it is recommended to short on rallies for the 10 contract and consider long positions on dips for the 12 and 01 contracts if the elimination process accelerates [38][39][40] - **Corn**: With sufficient supply and suitable growing conditions, the 11 contract is expected to be range - bound. It is recommended to short on rallies or hold the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage [40] - **Soybean Meal**: With a tightening supply - demand situation for US soybeans and different supply - demand patterns in different periods in China, it is recommended to hold long positions on a rolling basis and reduce positions on rallies [42] - **Oils**: With short - term high - level callback risks and long - term positive factors, it is recommended to buy on dips, take profits on existing long positions, and pay attention to the rapeseed oil 11 - 01 reverse arbitrage [43][44][50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the glass industry is to expect a weak and oscillating market [2][4]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The glass market is currently facing high inventory levels among manufacturers. The recovery of glass production and sales has fallen short of expectations, and the middle - stream is under significant pressure to reduce inventory. The 09 contract of glass is expected to remain weak, with support levels at 990 - 1000 [2][3]. - The real - estate market data shows a year - on - year decline, while the automotive market has seen year - on - year growth in production and sales. The supply of soda ash is increasing, and its futures price is expected to remain weak [2][46][54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Investment Strategy - The investment strategy is a weak and oscillating market. The main reasons include the impact of the Qinghai Salt Lake incident on the supply side, subsequent inventory accumulation in glass, a decline in market speculation, high inventory in the middle - stream, and weakening demand from the real - estate market [2]. 3.2 Market Review 3.2.1 Spot Price - As of August 15, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,150 yuan/ton in North China (-30), 1,110 yuan/ton in Central China (-80), and 1,220 yuan/ton in East China (-50). The futures price of the glass 01 contract closed at 1,211 yuan/ton last Friday, up 15 for the week [12]. 3.2.2 Basis and Spread - As of August 15, the price difference between soda ash and glass was 184 yuan/ton (-85). The basis of the glass 01 contract was -171 yuan/ton (-75), and the 09 - 01 spread was -165 yuan/ton (-32) [13]. 3.3 Profit - For the natural - gas production process, the cost was 1,588 yuan/ton (-4), and the gross profit was -368 yuan/ton (-46). For the coal - gas production process, the cost was 1,175 yuan/ton (-5), and the gross profit was -25 yuan/ton (-25). For the petroleum - coke production process, the cost was 1,102 yuan/ton (-4), and the gross profit was 8 yuan/ton (-76) [17][21]. 3.4 Supply - Last Friday, the daily melting volume of glass was 158,355 tons/day (unchanged). There were 223 production lines in operation, and there was no change in production lines last week [23]. 3.5 Inventory - As of August 15, the national inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers was 6,342.6 million weight boxes (+157.9). Inventory increased in all regions, with significant increases in North China, Central China, and East China [27][33]. 3.6 Deep - processing - The order days of glass deep - processing increased slightly, showing a situation where the off - season was not as slack as usual. The comprehensive production - sales ratio of float glass on August 14 was 91% (+4%), the operating rate of LOW - E glass on August 15 was 47.59% (+0.49%), and the order days of glass deep - processing in mid - August were 9.65 days (+0.1) [37]. 3.7 Demand 3.7.1 Automotive - In July, China's automobile production was 2.591 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 203,000 units and a year - on - year increase of 305,000 units. Sales were 2.593 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 311,000 units and a year - on - year increase of 331,000 units. The retail volume of new - energy passenger cars in July was 987,000 units, with a penetration rate of 54% [46]. 3.7.2 Real - estate - In July, China's real - estate completion area was 24.6739 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 29%. The new construction area was 48.4168 million square meters (-15%), the construction area was 54.0957 million square meters (-16%), and the commercial housing sales area was 57.0945 million square meters (-8%). From August 3 to August 10, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.48 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 18% and a year - on - year decrease of 7%. The real - estate development investment in July was 692.24 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17% [54]. 3.8 Soda Ash 3.8.1 Spot and Futures Prices - As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash was 1,350 yuan/ton in North China (-50), 1,275 yuan/ton in East China (-75), 1,325 yuan/ton in Central China (unchanged), and 1,500 yuan/ton in South China (unchanged). The soda ash 2509 contract closed at 1,395 yuan/ton last Friday (+63) [56][61]. 3.8.2 Cost and Profit - The cost of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash enterprises was 1,296 yuan/ton (-9), and the gross profit was 34 yuan/ton (-22). The cost of the joint - production process was 1,730 yuan/ton (-60), and the gross profit was 9 yuan/ton (-60) [62][64]. 3.8.3 Production, Inventory, and Consumption - Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 761,300 tons (a month - on - month increase of 16,700 tons), including 429,700 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 6,300 tons) and 331,600 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 10,400 tons). The loss was 110,400 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 16,800 tons). As of August 15, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.8938 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 28,700 tons), including 1.1338 million tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 13,700 tons) and 760,000 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 42,400 tons). The weekly apparent demand for heavy soda ash last week was 443,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 64,700 tons; the apparent demand for light soda ash was 289,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,400 tons. The production - sales ratio of soda ash last week was 96.23% [72][78][86].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand contradiction in the steel and ore industry is not prominent, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. The I2601 contract is recommended to focus on the 750 - 800 yuan/ton range, and consider going long lightly around 750 yuan/ton with a stop - loss. For the Spiral Coil 2510 contract, short - term long positions can be taken when it retraces to the key support level, while controlling the position and setting a stop - loss. The RB2510 contract has a resistance level of 3384 and a support level of 3150, and the hot - rolled coil has a support level of 3300 and a resistance level of 3550 [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel and Ore Market Conditions - This week, the steel and ore market first rose and then fell. The iron ore trend was stronger than that of finished products, and its high point was close to the previous high. The iron ore has completed the main contract roll - over [6]. - This week, the supply of steel increased. The supply of five major steel products was 871.63 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.42 tons or 0.3%. The total inventory was 1415.97 tons, a week - on - week increase of 40.61 tons or 2.95%. The weekly consumption was 831.02 tons, a decrease of 1.7% [15]. Demand Side - In the terminal market, the year - on - year decline rates of real estate investment and new construction have both widened, and the demand for steel in the real estate sector has continued to have a negative feedback. The manufacturing growth rate is 6.2% and the infrastructure investment growth rate is 3.2%, both lower than last month, indicating that the demand side remains weak. Overall, the downstream industries have not recovered [5]. Supply Side - Before the military parade activity's production restrictions, steel mills were highly motivated to start production. The daily hot - metal output this week was 2.4066 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 million tons. The inventory and daily consumption of imported sintered powder both increased, and there is still a profit in off - peak electricity for short - process steelmaking. Starting from August 16, steel mills will start production restrictions, and it is expected that steel production will decline until early September [5][17]. - The iron ore shipping volume has decreased week - on - week, especially the shipping volume from Australia. The supply of iron ore is expected to shrink. The continuous decline in iron ore shipping volume for two weeks means that the short - term pressure on iron ore arrival at ports is not significant. The port iron ore inventory has slightly increased, but the inventory contradiction is not prominent [5][24]. Important News - On August 13, some steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin regions raised the coke purchase price for the sixth time. The price of tamping wet - quenched coke increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of tamping dry - quenched coke increased by 55 yuan/ton. The price of top - charged wet - quenched coke increased by 70 yuan/ton, and the price of top - charged dry - quenched coke increased by 75 yuan/ton, with mainstream steel mills tendering on the 14th [12]. - From August 16 to early September, some steel enterprises in Tangshan will implement production restrictions, but the actual implementation effect remains to be observed [14]. - Nearly 30 cities have introduced 34 property market relaxation policies, including Guangzhou's plan to fully cancel the "four restrictions" and Beijing's cancellation of purchase restrictions outside the Fifth Ring Road [14].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-08-15 钢材需求不及预期，价格进⼀步回落 昨⽇螺纹表需数据不及预期，叠加焦煤限仓，⿊⾊板块延续⾛弱趋 势。⽬前部分煤矿陆续复产，但核查仍在进⾏供应仍有收缩可能。 除此之外，重⼤活动前限产预期较强，对价格形成强⽀撑。钢材下游 库存压⼒初现，需要继续关注后续⼏周表现。在库存⽭盾激化前若有 宏观利好仍有形成共振机会。近期价格预计以当前区间内震荡运⾏为 主，下⽅空间有限。 昨日螺纹表需数据不及预期，叠加焦煤限仓，黑色板块延续走弱趋 势。目前部分煤矿陆续复产，但核查仍在进行供应仍有收缩可能。 除此之外，重大活动前限产预期较强，对价格形成强支撑。钢材下游 库存压力初现，需要继续关注后续几周表现。在库存矛盾激化前若有 宏观利好仍有形成共振机会。近期价格预计以当前区间内震荡运行为 主，下方空间有限。 1、铁元素方面，海外矿山发运环比小幅下降，45港口到港量回落至 去年同期水平，供应相对平稳，增量不明显；需求端钢企盈利率小幅 下降，同比依然处于高位，铁水产量微幅回升，钢企短期因利润原因 减产可能性较小，关注下旬限产政策。库存方面，铁矿 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX has a weak unilateral trend, with the main contract shifting positions and a reverse spread in the monthly spread. The short - term PXN has support, and it is necessary to pay attention to the repair of terminal orders starting from late August [8]. - PTA has a weak unilateral trend. Hold the mid - term strategy of going long on MEG and short on PTA. Under low processing fees, pay attention to unplanned production cuts and conduct a positive spread in the 9 - 1 monthly spread. PTA has reduced supply and increased demand, but the high inventory of grey fabrics makes it difficult to form an effective positive feedback [8]. - MEG has a weakly oscillating unilateral trend. Hold the mid - term strategy of going long on MEG and short on PTA. Maintain the 9 - 1 positive spread operation in the range of - 50 to 0 and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - **PX**: On the 13th, the PX price fell. An Asian spot in September was traded at $831. The PX price lost support due to the decline in crude oil futures. The supply recovery and weak downstream demand depressed the market sentiment, but some participants thought the market was relatively tight [5]. - **PTA**: The spot price dropped to 4,695 yuan/ton, with a mainstream basis of 09 - 13 [6]. - **MEG**: A 400,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - based ethylene glycol plant in Shaanxi reduced its load to replace the catalyst, and a 800,000 - ton/year plant in Zhejiang restarted [6]. - **Polyester**: On the 13th, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were average, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 48%. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales - to - production ratio of just over 40% [7]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX, PTA, and MEG is - 1, indicating a weak trend [8]. Viewpoints and Suggestions - **PX**: Weak unilateral trend, main contract position shift, monthly spread reverse spread. PXN has short - term support, and pay attention to terminal orders from late August [8]. - **PTA**: Weak unilateral trend, hold the mid - term strategy of long MEG and short PTA. Pay attention to unplanned production cuts and 9 - 1 monthly spread positive spread. PTA has reduced supply and increased demand, but the high grey fabric inventory affects the positive feedback [8]. - **MEG**: Weakly oscillating unilateral trend, hold the mid - term strategy of long MEG and short PTA. Maintain the 9 - 1 positive spread operation in the - 50 to 0 range and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread. This week, the supply and demand of ethylene glycol both increased, but the terminal demand is weak [9].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals shows a downward trend, with fuel oil futures experiencing a decline of approximately 1.91% [1] - The main contract for fuel oil opened at 2745.00 yuan/ton, with a trading range between 2714.00 yuan and 2749.00 yuan [1] - Analysts from various institutions suggest that the fuel oil market is facing weak performance due to stable downstream demand and high inventory levels [1] Group 2 - According to Fangzheng Zhongqi Futures, the decline in costs is slowing, and while supply in Singapore is ample, the overall supply-demand dynamics for high and low sulfur fuel oil are limited [1] - Shanghai Zhongqi Futures indicates that with increased fuel supply and weak demand, the futures prices are expected to remain weak [1] - Dayue Futures notes that the market is currently lacking clear bullish or bearish signals, with expectations for continued low-level fluctuations in fuel oil prices [1]