1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by geopolitical conflicts, especially the situation in the Middle East, which has a significant impact on various industries and commodities. Different commodities show different trends and investment opportunities due to their own fundamentals and external factors [9][12]. - In the short - term, the market is volatile, and investment strategies need to be adjusted according to the specific situation of each commodity, such as short - term holding, waiting for opportunities to enter the market, or hedging operations [12][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are intensifying. Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, and the Houthi rebels have launched military operations. The US is considering sending troops to the Middle East, and there are also negotiations between the US and Iran [9]. - China's economic data shows positive trends. From January to February, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 15.2% year - on - year, and the profit of high - tech manufacturing increased by 58.7% [9]. - The Chinese government is promoting the development of the service industry and strengthening financial risk prevention and control [9]. 3.2 Macro Finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to wait and see due to the situation in the US - Iran conflict and focus on the capital's ability to support the market. The A - share market is oscillating upwards, with some sectors performing well, but the market turnover has reached a new low this year [12]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The situation in Iran may still have variables. Differentiate the impact of capital and fundamentals on bonds and maintain a steep thinking strategy. The money market is balanced and loose, and the economic data is positive. Pay attention to the PMI data this month and the possibility of the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut [13]. 3.3 Black 3.3.1 Steel and Iron Ore - The demand for building materials is weak, and the demand for rolled products has declined in some downstream industries, but the export and the orders of steel mills are acceptable. The supply of steel mills is increasing slightly, and the cost of raw materials is strongly supported. The short - term market is in a volatile state, and the strategy is to hold the sold wide - straddle options and wait for opportunities to short at high prices [15][16]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips. The price increase is mainly due to the energy substitution logic caused by geopolitical conflicts. Although the supply is sufficient, the market sentiment is high, but there is a risk of price decline if the sentiment premium fades [17]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - The possibility of manganese - silicon production cuts in April is high, but the endogenous motivation for production cuts is insufficient. It is recommended to short after the price rises. Silicon - iron may rise further due to the sentiment of manganese - silicon, but the view of shorting at high prices remains unchanged [18]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, it is advisable to wait and see. For glass, it is recommended to try to buy on dips for far - month contracts. The short - term price fluctuations are affected by geopolitical conflicts and energy prices. The supply of soda ash is slightly reduced due to short - term maintenance, and the cold - repair expectation of glass production lines is increasing [19]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Copper - The short - term copper price will oscillate widely. The Middle East situation has signs of easing but still has high uncertainty, and the accelerating inventory depletion provides some support for copper prices [21]. 3.4.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate is affected by the disturbance of the ore end, and the sentiment is strong. It is a variety with a strong fundamental and solid logic in the non - ferrous sector. There is an opportunity to buy on dips [23]. 3.4.3 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon continues to oscillate without obvious supply - demand drivers, and it is advisable to operate within a range and sell wide - straddle options. Polysilicon is in a weak oscillation, and caution is required in operation [25]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - The price of Zhengzhou cotton oscillates at a high level due to the impact of external conflicts and the repair of the internal - external price difference. The overall cotton market is affected by the surrounding market and the macro - environment. Pay attention to the geopolitical impact on the crude oil market and the USDA cotton planting report [28]. 3.5.2 Sugar - The sugar price oscillates and rebounds due to the supply pressure and the increase in import costs. The global sugar supply surplus is shrinking, and the domestic sugar price is supported by the inverted import profit [30]. 3.5.3 Eggs - Before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the egg price increase slows down, and the market still has an upward expectation, but the inventory is high, and the futures market maintains a bearish view [33]. 3.5.4 Apples - The high - quality apple supply is tight, and the market will continue to be strong in the short term. Pay attention to the出库 progress in the producing areas and the sales situation in the sales areas [34]. 3.5.5 Pigs - For futures, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term. The spot market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, but the live - stock inventory is expected to decline [35]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - The Strait of Hormuz is still blocked, and the supply risk is increasing. The market is concerned about the resumption of navigation in the strait. The price of crude oil has risen [35]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - The domestic fuel oil will follow the oil price and oscillate at a high level. The key is the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz [37]. 3.6.3 Plastics - The price of polyolefins is slightly supported by the unstable situation in the Middle East. The upstream production cuts are expanding, and the short - term trend is strong, but the long - term trend depends on the end of the war [38]. 3.6.4 Rubber - The domestic rubber in Yunnan is starting to be harvested, and the raw materials are increasing. Although it is affected by synthetic rubber and is slightly strong, it is necessary to be cautious in unilateral chasing. Hold the strategy of narrowing the RU - NR spread [40]. 3.6.5 Synthetic Rubber - The current price is mainly driven by the cost and may still have room to rise. It is advisable to wait and see. Pay attention to the energy price fluctuations and the war situation [41]. 3.6.6 Methanol - The actual supply - demand situation of methanol has improved slightly. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is still uncertain. It is recommended to have a bullish view in the short term. Pay attention to the supply and transportation of methanol in Iran [42]. 3.6.7 Caustic Soda - The caustic soda price is affected by multiple factors. It is advisable to maintain an intraday wide - range oscillation strategy. Pay attention to the progress of the US - Iran conflict [43]. 3.6.8 Asphalt - The asphalt price follows the oil price. The demand is in the off - season, and the supply is expected to decrease rapidly [44]. 3.6.9 PVC - The previous rise of PVC was due to the increase in ethylene - based costs caused by the Iran war. The actual production cuts are less than expected, and there is a risk of a callback. It is advisable to be cautious [45]. 3.6.10 Polyester Industry Chain - The cost of the polyester industry chain is supported by the high - level oil price, and the supply is shrinking, but the downstream negative feedback is emerging. It is advisable to take profit on previous long positions [46]. 3.6.11 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The price of LPG has risen significantly due to the US - Iran war. It is expected to maintain a high - level and high - volatility state, and investors should be cautious [47]. 3.6.12 Pulp - The port inventory of pulp is increasing, the import cost is falling, and the market is in a multi - empty game. Pay attention to the inventory situation and the price increase of finished products [48]. 3.6.13 Logs - The supply of logs is expected to decrease in the short term, and the price may rise steadily. Pay attention to the downstream demand and the port arrival volume [50]. 3.6.14 Urea - For the far - month contracts, pay attention to the cost increase and the rise of agricultural product prices. For the near - month contracts, follow the policy. The spot market is in a tight balance [51].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The process of the US and Iran seeking to start negotiations is difficult, and Israel is intensively attacking targets in Iran. In the Russia-Ukraine situation, at least 40% of Russia's oil export capacity has temporarily stopped, which has increased market concerns about supply. Brent crude oil futures prices may reach $120 per barrel in the second quarter of this year if energy infrastructure continues to be attacked and the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for a long time [4] - Due to the sharp rise in raw material prices, the polyester terminal is cautious about placing orders and mostly adopts a wait-and-see attitude. The PX-naphtha spread is around $220 per ton. Asian cracking plants continue to reduce their loads, with expected supply reduction and demand increase in April, and the medium-term trend remains strong. There is a risk of negative feedback on the demand side of PTA, and there is still a risk of inventory accumulation in April, but the cost drive is still strong, and the long-term outlook is good [4] - The Middle East situation has tightened the supply of ethylene glycol from both cost and supply aspects. The supply of ethylene glycol at home and abroad is shrinking. The supply is at direct risk of interruption, and imports will be significantly reduced. The supply-demand pattern is expected to improve in the second quarter, and it is expected to enter the de-stocking cycle [5] - The port inventory of pure benzene has continued to decline, meeting expectations. The downstream is actively picking up goods, driving the decline of port inventory. The supply of pure benzene in South Korea is still expected to decline. The domestic and overseas factories have begun to hoard pure benzene. The downstream of pure benzene has good start-up performance and is actively replenishing inventory. The styrene start-up rate has slightly decreased, and the domestic export performance is outstanding, but the port inventory has slightly accumulated. The styrene is expected to maintain a strong and volatile pattern [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The negotiation process between the US and Iran is difficult, and Israel is attacking targets in Iran. In the Russia-Ukraine situation, at least 40% of Russia's oil export capacity has temporarily stopped, increasing market concerns about supply. Brent crude oil futures prices may reach $120 per barrel in the second quarter of this year if the situation worsens [4] PX&PTA - Domestic PX weekly capacity utilization rate is 87.42%, up 0.3% from last week; Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization rate is 77.14%, up 0.13% from last week. The PX processing fee is greatly affected by crude oil fluctuations, and the PX-naphtha spread is around $220 per ton [8] - An East China 200,000-ton PX project is planned to be shut down for maintenance for about 30 - 40 days in mid-March, and another 70,000-ton PX project is planned to be shut down for maintenance for 50 - 60 days in early April [8] - The PX price decline is restricted by geopolitical risks and the expected supply tightening in the second quarter. The new PX production capacity will be all added in the second half of this year, and there are many maintenance plans for PX in the second quarter, so the long-term outlook is good [8] - The average spot price of PTA this week is 6,700 yuan per ton, down 90 yuan per ton from last week. The PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate is 79.9%, up 2.63% from last week. The factory inventory days are 5.85 days, down 0.07 days from last week and up 0.83 days from the same period last year [13] - The PTA processing fee is 212 yuan per ton, down 37 yuan per ton from last week. The easing of the Middle East situation has led to a decline in crude oil prices, dragging down the price of raw material PX. The downstream and terminal performance is poor, and the spot price transmission is not smooth [13] MEG - The average price of ethylene glycol in East China this week is 4,887 yuan per ton, up 312 yuan per ton from last week. The overall domestic ethylene glycol start-up rate is 57.97%, down 0.53% from last week. The coal-to-ethylene glycol production profit has been greatly repaired, and the production gross profit is 419 yuan per ton, up 240 yuan per ton from last week [19] - The ethylene glycol port inventory is 95.2 tons, up 1.7 tons from last week, and it is expected to enter the de-stocking stage in April. Two South Korean MEG plants with an annual capacity of 120,000 tons each have been shut down for maintenance this month, which is expected to last until the end of May [19] BZ&EB - This week, the domestic pure benzene capacity utilization rate is 72.57%, down 1.99% from last week; the styrene capacity utilization rate is 69.95%, down 0.51% from last week. Affected by the crude oil price fluctuations, the pure benzene-naphtha spread has been continuously compressed to around $50 per ton [30] - The total commercial inventory of the pure benzene port sample in Jiangsu is 26.9 tons, down 1.9 tons from last week, still at a high level; the styrene port sample inventory in Jiangsu is 16.84 tons, up 0.59 tons from last week; the factory inventory is 8.71 tons, down 1.46 tons from last week [31] - The downstream PS weekly start-up rate is 51.4%, down 0.2% from last week; the APS start-up rate is 62.6%, down 4.5% from last week; the EPS start-up rate is 63.3%, up 2.3% from last week. The PS and ABS inventory levels have decreased [31] Polyester Industry - The weekly average capacity utilization rate of the Chinese polyester industry is 83.18%, down 0.56 percentage points from last week. The polyester filament has accumulated inventory [26] - The comprehensive start-up rate of the main domestic weaving production bases this week is 51.85%, up 0.47% from last week. The average number of days of terminal weaving orders is 8.55 days, down 0.88 days from last week. The average inventory level of terminal woven finished products (long fiber cloth) is 19.28 days, down 0.14 days from last week [26] - The geopolitical situation has not subsided, resulting in a slowdown in order negotiations. The market is in a stalemate between buyers and sellers. Enterprises mostly consume their previous inventories and produce on demand, with a weak willingness to accept long-term and large orders, and are in a wait-and-see and game stage overall [26]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Canola Oil**: This week, canola oil futures fluctuated at a high level. The closing price of the 05 contract was 9,877 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from last week. AAFC kept the forecast of Canada's rapeseed ending stocks for the 2025/26 season unchanged at 2.76 million tons and lowered the forecast for the 2026/27 season by 200,000 tons to 1.46 million tons. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East remain uncertain, and international oil prices are oscillating at a high level, driving up the expected demand for vegetable oil in biodiesel. High-frequency data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports increased significantly in the first 25 days of March, and the end-of-month inventory is expected to decline further. The market anticipates that Indonesia may tighten palm oil exports, which continues to support palm oil prices. In the domestic market, the spot trading of edible oils is sluggish, and high prices are suppressing demand. The future imports of Canadian rapeseed are expected to increase significantly, adding pressure on supply in the far - term. Recently, the market has been trading on the drive of biodiesel demand. The canola oil futures price has generally maintained a wide - range high - level oscillation, with increased short - term volatility [8]. - **Canola Meal**: This week, canola meal futures declined. The closing price of the 05 contract was 2,315 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan/ton from last week. As the South American soybean harvest progresses, the supply pressure is gradually increasing, and Brazilian soybeans have a competitive edge, dampening the market's expectations for US soybean exports. Tensions between the US and Iran have eased slightly, but the uncertainty of the geopolitical conflict still exists, and the macro - risk premium still supports the US soybean market. In terms of canola meal itself, China has lifted the anti - discriminatory tariff on Canadian canola meal, and the tariff on Canadian rapeseed has also dropped significantly. Canadian rapeseed and canola meal will flow back to the domestic market, and the long - term supply pressure will continue to restrict the market. Currently, canola meal is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The market's concerns about the near - term soybean supply have been alleviated. The canola meal price has oscillated and declined from a high level recently, with large short - term fluctuations, and short - term trading is recommended [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Canola Oil**: The 05 contract closed at 9,877 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from last week. AAFC adjusted the inventory forecast, and geopolitical and market factors affect prices. The market is trading on biodiesel demand, and the price is in a high - level wide - range oscillation [8]. - **Canola Meal**: The 05 contract closed at 2,315 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan/ton from last week. Supply and geopolitical factors impact the market, and it is in a weak supply - demand situation. The price has oscillated and declined from a high level, with large short - term fluctuations [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: Canola oil futures oscillated and closed higher, with a total open interest of 213,002 contracts, down 24,431 contracts from last week. Canola meal futures declined significantly, with a total open interest of 527,901 contracts, down 50,477 contracts from last week [15]. - **Top 20 Net Positions**: The net position of the top 20 in canola oil futures was - 17,025, and the net short position decreased compared to last week. The net position of the top 20 in canola meal futures was - 167,454, and the net short position increased compared to last week [21]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of canola oil were 765, and those of canola meal were 0 [27]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of canola oil in Jiangsu was 10,380 yuan/ton, slightly down from last week. The basis between the active canola oil contract and the Jiangsu spot price was + 503 yuan/ton. The canola meal price in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,570 yuan/ton, slightly down from last week. The basis between the Jiangsu spot price and the active canola meal contract was + 255 yuan/ton [33][39]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 5 - 9 spread of canola oil was + 97 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. The 5 - 9 spread of canola meal was - 88 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years [45]. - **Futures - Spot Ratio**: The ratio of the 05 contract of canola oil to canola meal was 4.267, and the average spot price ratio was 3.98 [48]. - **Price Spreads between Oils and Meals**: The 05 contract spread between canola oil and soybean oil was 1,189 yuan/ton, and the spread slightly narrowed this week. The 05 contract spread between canola oil and palm oil was 109 yuan/ton, and the spread slightly narrowed this week. The 05 contract spread between soybean meal and canola meal was 622 yuan/ton, and the spot spread between soybean meal and canola meal was 710 yuan/ton as of Thursday [57][63]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Rapeseed**: As of the end of the 12th week of 2026, the domestic imported rapeseed inventory was 176,000 tons, down 5,000 tons from last week. The estimated arrivals of rapeseed in April, May, and June 2026 are 225,000 tons, 200,000 tons, and 520,000 tons respectively. As of March 26, the spot crushing profit of imported rapeseed was + 55 yuan/ton. As of the 12th week of 2026, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 46,000 tons, up 15,500 tons from last week, and the operating rate was 11.76%. In February 2026, the total import volume of rapeseed was 69,617.89 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 79.10% and a month - on - month decrease of 51,231.78 tons [67][71][75][79]. - **Canola Oil**: As of the end of the 12th week of 2026, the domestic imported and crushed canola oil inventory was 295,800 tons, down 8,200 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.69%. In February 2026, the total import volume of canola oil was 200,000 tons, the lowest this year, a year - on - year decrease of 16.67% and a month - on - month decrease of 50,000 tons. As of December 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 5.254 million tons, and the monthly catering revenue was 573.8 billion yuan. As of the end of the 12th week of 2026, the contract volume of domestic imported and crushed canola oil was 156,800 tons, up 46,900 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 42.72% [83][87][91]. - **Canola Meal**: As of the end of the 12th week of 2026, the domestic imported and crushed canola meal inventory was 24,000 tons, up 4,000 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 20.0%. In February 2026, the total import volume of canola meal was 182,509.72 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.61% and a month - on - month decrease of 82,530.18 tons. As of December 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 3.0086 million tons [95][99][103]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis As of March 27, this week, the canola meal futures price declined from a high level. The implied volatility of the corresponding options was 23.93%, down 1.23% from last week's 25.16%, and it was at a medium level of the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [107].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran, with significant fluctuations in various futures markets. Different varieties show different trends and investment opportunities based on their fundamentals and market sentiment [10][11][12]. - The global economic outlook is expected to have a slight recovery in 2027, but the US economic growth may slow down, and inflation remains high [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro Information - US President Trump will visit China from May 14 - 15, 2026, and the two sides are in communication [6]. - Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days to April 6, 2026, at 8 pm EST. Iran responded to the US cease - fire proposal with specific conditions [6]. - The US Department of Defense is formulating military options against Iran, and Iran has organized over one million people for ground combat and warned of opening new fronts [7]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation will strengthen anti - monopoly supervision and law enforcement [7]. - The "Shanghai Seven" real - estate policy has led to a steady increase in new - home transactions in Shanghai, with a 3% year - on - year increase in second - hand housing net - signed transactions from March 1 to March 24 [7]. - Iran allowed 10 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran is seeking a bill to levy tolls on the strait [8]. - The OECD expects the global economic growth rate to be 2.9% in 2026 and 3% in 2027, while the US economic growth will slow down from 2% in 2026 to 1.7% in 2027, with an inflation rate of 4.2% in 2026 [8]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US increased by 5,000 to 210,000 last week, and the number of continued claims decreased by 32,000 to 1.819 million [9]. - Iraq had to cut oil production due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, with the output of its southern main oil fields dropping by 80% to about 800,000 barrels per day [9]. - The Turkish central bank sold about 22 tons of gold last week, and its gold reserves dropped to 771.8 tons [9]. 2. Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to pay attention to the US - Iran situation and stay on the sidelines for now. A - share market declined with shrinking trading volume, affected by the US - Iran situation and market sentiment [10][11]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures - The strategy is to distinguish the impact of funds and fundamentals on bonds and maintain a steep yield curve strategy. The bond market improved under the influence of risk - aversion sentiment, but the long - end is still not strong, and short - term bonds perform better [12]. 4. Black Commodities 4.1. Steel and Iron Ore - The overall demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils has a certain decline in some downstream consumption. The steel mills' current order situation is okay, but high inventory suppresses steel prices. The supply of steel is expected to increase slightly, and the cost side has strong support. The short - term trend is volatile, and the strategy is to hold the sold wide - straddle options for steel and iron ore and consider short - selling at high prices later [12][13]. 4.2. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may fluctuate strongly in the short term. The current supply of coking coal is sufficient, and the procurement willingness of coking enterprises is recovering. However, if the emotional premium fades, the prices may fall back [15][16]. 4.3. Ferroalloys - The supply - demand situation of silicon iron and manganese silicon is weakening at the margin. It is recommended to short at high prices following the industrial logic [17]. 5. Soda Ash and Glass - The short - term trend is affected by the spill - over of geopolitical energy sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see for now. For soda ash, pay attention to the supply stability of leading enterprises; for glass, pay attention to the actual changes in production lines and the recovery of demand [19][20]. 6. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 6.1. Copper - The short - term copper price will fluctuate widely. The Middle - East situation has signs of easing but remains uncertain, and the accelerating inventory reduction provides some support [22]. 6.2. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term lithium carbonate price will fluctuate widely. The mining end disturbance supports the price, while the weakening reality suppresses the upside. A callback due to weakening macro - sentiment is a good buying opportunity [24]. 6.3. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of selling call options after the rebound. Polysilicon is expected to fluctuate weakly, and caution is needed in operation [25]. 7. Agricultural Products 7.1. Cotton - The cotton price fluctuates at a high level. The overall trend is affected by the surrounding market and the macro - environment. The domestic cotton market is in the de - stocking stage, and the import pressure restricts the price. In the long term, the expected reduction in cotton planting area is beneficial to the price [28][29]. 7.2. Sugar - The sugar price fluctuates and rebounds. The global sugar supply situation is controversial, and the domestic sugar has seasonal production pressure but is supported by the inverted import profit [30][31]. 7.3. Eggs - The short - term egg price is supported by the recovery of consumption and low inventory, but the supply pressure is still large. It is recommended to wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities at high prices [32]. 7.4. Apples - The high - quality apple supply is tight, and the price is expected to be strong. The market will maintain a stable and strong operation in the short term, and attention should be paid to the出库 progress in the producing areas and the actual sales in the selling areas [33][34]. 7.5. Corn - It is advisable to be cautious about chasing high prices to prevent a sharp fall. A 5 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be considered. The short - term supply is tight, but the policy regulation risk and the substitution of wheat may suppress the price [35]. 7.6. Red Dates - The red date market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is in the traditional consumption off - season, and attention should be paid to the sales rhythm in the selling areas and the mentality of purchasers [36]. 7.7. Pigs - For futures, it is advisable to pay attention to selling out - of - the - money call options of near - month contracts. The supply pressure continues, but the live - pig inventory is expected to start to decline [37]. 8. Energy and Chemicals 8.1. Crude Oil - The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, and the supply risk is large. The market is affected by the US - Iran negotiation situation. The international oil price has risen [39][40]. 8.2. Fuel Oil - The fuel oil price will fluctuate at a high level following the oil price, and the key is the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz [41]. 8.3. Plastics - The polyolefin price is slightly supported by the unstable Middle - East situation. The upstream production cut is expanding, and the future price depends on the end of the war [42]. 8.4. Rubber - The domestic rubber in Yunnan is starting to be harvested, and the price is affected by the synthetic rubber and the export situation of tires. It is advisable to be cautious about chasing long positions [43]. 8.5. Synthetic Rubber - The price is driven by the cost side and may continue to rise in the short term, but caution is needed at high prices [44]. 8.6. Methanol - The short - term methanol price may be strong due to the geopolitical situation in Iran. The long - term supply - demand pattern is improving, but there is great uncertainty [45][46]. 8.7. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda price has both upward and downward drivers. It is advisable to maintain an intraday wide - range fluctuation strategy [47]. 8.8. Asphalt - The asphalt industry is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The price follows the oil price, and the profit has recovered [49]. 8.9. PVC - The PVC price is affected by the production cut of ethylene due to the Iran war. If the market sentiment turns bad, there may be a callback risk [49][50]. 8.10. Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain is supported by the high - level oil price and the supply contraction, but the downstream negative feedback is emerging. It is advisable to take profit on previous long positions [51][52]. 8.11. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The LPG price is affected by the geopolitical situation. If the Strait of Hormuz is opened, it may return to fundamental trading. The price is expected to weaken but may be relatively stronger than crude oil [53]. 8.12. Pulp - The pulp market is in a state of multi - empty game. The high inventory and weak demand in the real - world end and the cost and energy - related production cuts of overseas pulp mills are the key points of the game. Attention should be paid to the port inventory and product price increases [54]. 8.13. Logs - The log price is rising due to the increase in demand in the construction industry. Attention should be paid to the downstream receiving capacity and port arrivals [55]. 8.14. Urea - The far - month urea contract should pay attention to the cost push and agricultural product price increases, while the near - month contract should follow the policy [56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices at home and abroad fluctuated strongly. The import window for domestic refined copper remained open, but import profits declined. US import prices increased, indicating pressure spreading from energy to broader commodities. Geopolitical conflicts between the US and Iran persisted, and inventory changes varied in different markets. After the copper price decline, downstream replenishment willingness increased. The copper price is expected to enter a shock bottom - seeking stage with support below and lack of upward drive. It is recommended to shift from a cautious short - bias strategy to range - bound operations and gradually build long positions at key support levels, paying attention to the performance of copper prices in the range of 90,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly. Overseas raw material cost support weakened, and with domestic production resumption and a large amount of imported alumina arriving, inventory pressure increased. The market's core contradiction shifted from high overseas geopolitical premiums to the weak reality of domestic inventory accumulation and slow demand recovery, as well as the logic of the upward repair of the copper - aluminum ratio. If there are no unexpected geopolitical disturbances, the aluminum price will be mainly adjusted weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the approaching time of the de - stocking inflection point and new geopolitical variables [2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both rose. Nickel ore prices continued to strengthen, but the primary nickel market showed significant pressure. On the demand side, stainless - steel inventory decreased, and the output of ternary materials was expected to increase. Due to the tightening of Indonesian nickel ore quotas, there were short - term trading opportunities to go long based on the cost line, but attention should be paid to overseas geopolitical and market sentiment, as well as the expected quota supplement in July and the large inventory pressure of primary nickel [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: The US import price of copper increased, with a 1.3% month - on - month and year - on - year increase, and the pressure spread to broader commodities. Geopolitical conflicts between the US and Iran were still volatile. LME inventory increased by 900 tons, Comex inventory increased by 681 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 10,599 tons, and BC copper warehouse receipts decreased by 503 tons. After the price decline, downstream replenishment willingness increased. The copper price is expected to enter a shock bottom - seeking stage, and the strategy is to shift to range - bound operations [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly. The price of SMM alumina rebounded, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots narrowed. Overseas raw material cost support weakened, and inventory pressure increased. The market's core contradiction shifted, and the short - term aluminum price is expected to be adjusted weakly [2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel rose 2.15% and Shanghai nickel rose 1.33%. LME inventory decreased by 432 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 401 tons. Nickel ore prices strengthened, but the primary nickel market had pressure. Stainless - steel inventory decreased by 1.32% week - on - week, and the output of ternary materials in March was expected to increase by 19% month - on - month. There are short - term trading opportunities to go long based on the cost line, but attention should be paid to geopolitical and inventory factors [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper increased by 1,630 yuan/ton, and the price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong increased by 500 yuan/ton. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 10,599 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 27,000 tons [4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the inventory of SHFE decreased by 9,939 tons week - on - week [4]. - **Aluminum**: The price of Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum increased, and the inventory of SHFE increased by 35,619 tons week - on - week. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 2,000 tons, and the social inventory of alumina increased by 40,000 tons [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 1,700 yuan/ton. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 401 tons, and the social inventory increased by 959 tons [5]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price decreased by 0.2%, and the social inventory decreased by 9,500 tons week - on - week [7]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased by 1.9%, and the inventory of SHFE decreased by 2,472 tons week - on - week [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts 1 - 6 show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [9][10][13]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts 7 - 12 show the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [15][18][22]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts 13 - 18 show the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts 19 - 24 show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [30][32][34]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts 25 - 30 show the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [36][38][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts 31 - 36 show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and 304 stainless - steel smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2026 [42][44][46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soft Commodity Sector** - **Sugar**: The global sugar surplus situation in the 2025/26 season has improved. The tension in the Middle East may suppress the international sugar - making ratio, and the sugar production in India may be lower than expected. In China, southern sugar mills are starting to finish the crushing season, and the domestic sugar market fundamentals are also improving. Zhengzhou sugar futures may rise in a wide - range shock [4]. - **Pulp**: Affected by the Middle East geopolitical conflict, overseas suppliers have proposed to raise the US dollar quotes, but domestic buyers resist. The downstream finished paper market is gradually improving after the festival, but the seasonal demand increase is not obvious. The cost - side support may appear, and further short - selling of pulp needs to be cautious [5]. - **Double - offset Paper**: After the festival, the operating rate has rebounded from a low level, but the downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. The cost support has weakened, and the demand in March enters the peak season, but it may be difficult to change the supply - loose state. It will maintain a low - level range fluctuation in the short term [6]. - **Cotton**: Geopolitical conflicts continue to disrupt the market. The global and US cotton supply - demand situation in the 2026/27 season is expected to improve, and China's processing trade quota has been implemented. The short - term domestic cotton price has a small adjustment, but the medium - term support will limit the continuous decline of futures prices [8]. - **Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Sector** - **Apple**: The apple price has rebounded from a low level this week. The supply - side support still exists, but the consumption - side drive is insufficient. The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. The focus is on consumption realization and new - season weather [9]. - **Jujube**: The jujube futures price was in a weak shock at a low level on Thursday. The spot inventory is gradually reaching the seasonal peak and then declining. The futures - spot price difference contradiction has been alleviated [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Futures** - **Apple 2605**: Recommend to reduce or exit long positions at high prices. The supply - side support exists, but the consumption support is insufficient, and the price will continue to fluctuate in a high - level range. The support interval is 9000 - 9200, and the pressure interval is 11000 - 11500 [20]. - **Jujube 2605**: Recommend to buy on dips in the short - term. The expected production reduction may gradually be reflected in the far - month contracts, and the spot inventory is starting to decline seasonally. The support interval is 8700 - 9000, and the pressure interval is 9500 - 9800 [20]. - **Soft Commodity Futures** - **Sugar 2605**: Recommend to hold long positions cautiously. The international sugar supply surplus situation has improved, and the supply - demand fundamentals in China are improving, but the supply is still sufficient. The support interval is 5250 - 5300, and the pressure interval is 5600 - 5650 [20]. - **Pulp 2605**: Recommend to short on rallies. The increase in the outer - disk price of broad - leaf pulp drives the pulp futures to strengthen, but the peak - season demand for finished paper needs to be verified, and the supply - demand improvement of bleached softwood pulp is limited. The support interval is 5000 - 5100, and the pressure interval is 5350 - 5400 [20]. - **Double - offset Paper 2605**: Recommend to operate within the range. The spot market is stable, but the demand has entered the off - season. Pay attention to the support situation after the basis expands due to the further decline of the disk. The support interval is 4000 - 4100, and the pressure interval is 4250 - 4300 [20]. - **Cotton 2605**: Recommend to reduce long positions at high prices. The import of cotton and cotton yarn has increased significantly year - on - year, which exerts short - term pressure, but the outer - disk stabilizes and rebounds, and the medium - term upward expectation of the price remains unchanged. The support interval is 14900 - 15000, and the pressure interval is 16300 - 16500 [20]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamental Information**: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. As of March 19, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas in China was 4.1892 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 251,200 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 249,400 tons [21]. - **Spot Market Situation**: The mainstream apple prices in the producing areas are stable this week. In Shandong, the mainstream transaction price is stable, and the procurement by domestic traders is average. In Shaanxi, the mainstream price is stable, and the price of some high - end goods has increased slightly. In other producing areas, the prices are generally stable. In the sales areas, the arrival volume has changed little, the sales speed is slow, and the overall demand is average [21][22][23]. - **Jujube Market**: As of March 5, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 11,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 117 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.39%. The overall trading atmosphere in the market is stable [24]. - **Sugar Market**: From March 18 - 19, 5 more sugar mills in Guangxi finished the crushing season. As of now, 19 sugar mills in the 2025/26 crushing season in Guangxi have finished the crushing season, with a crushing capacity of 177,000 tons per day, a year - on - year decrease of 363,000 tons per day. As of March 15, the sugar production in India in the 2025/26 crushing season reached 26.214 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49 million tons. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports has increased, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped has also increased. The import of sugar in China from January to February 2026 has increased significantly year - on - year [24]. - **Pulp Market**: After the Spring Festival, the price of South American BHK pulp has increased. The price increase is mainly driven by supply concerns. Buyers are cautious, and the domestic market transaction is weak, with an increase in port inventory [28]. - **Double - offset Paper Market**: The inventory days of double - offset paper have decreased, but the decline rate has narrowed. The operating load rate has increased slightly, but the increase rate has also narrowed. The new orders in the market are limited, and the overall inventory - reduction speed of the industry has decreased [29]. - **Cotton Market**: In January, Greece exported about 22,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of 12.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.2%. The main export destination is Turkey, accounting for 53% [30]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review** | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | 10611 | 490 | 4.84% | | Jujube 2605 | 8825 | 30 | 0.34% | | Sugar 2605 | 5417 | 74 | 1.38% | | Pulp 2605 | 5104 | 64 | 1.27% | | Cotton 2605 | 15150 | - 60 | - 0.39% | [31] - **Spot Market Review** | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4.45 | 0.00 | 0.45 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5430 | 10 | - 730 | | Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) | 5050 | - 80 | - 1450 | | Double - offset Paper (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4350 | 0 | - 800 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 16722 | - 175 | 1848 | [37] 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation There is no specific text description about the basis situation, but there are relevant figures such as "Apple 5 - month basis", "Jujube main contract basis", etc. [51][52][54] 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 5 - 10 | 1784 | 449 | 1984 | Oscillate strongly | Buy on dips | | Jujube | 5 - 9 | - 390 | - 20 | 20 | Reverse spread at high prices | Wait and see | | Sugar | 5 - 9 | - 23 | 4 | - 163 | Oscillate | Wait and see | | Cotton | 5 - 9 | - 105 | - 10 | 40 | Oscillate weakly | Short on rallies | [60] 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation There are relevant figures about the top 20 rankings of long and short positions, trading volume changes, and net long and short position changes of various varieties, but no specific text description [65][67][72] 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 4112 | 0 | - 1813 | | Sugar | 16342 | 0 | - 12092 | | Pulp | 182075 | - 9993 | - 195383 | | Cotton | 12437 | - 43 | 3367 | [84] 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data - **Apple Option Data**: There are figures about option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility, but no specific text description [87][88] - **Sugar Option Data**: There are figures about option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility, but no specific text description [91][93] - **Cotton Option Data**: There are figures about option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility, but no specific text description [96][99]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★☆ [1] - PX: ★★☆ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ★★☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various chemical products, including olefins, polyesters, pure benzene - styrene, coal - chemical products, chlor - alkali products, and soda ash - glass. It takes into account factors such as supply, demand, geopolitical risks, and cost to predict the price trends of these products [2][3][5] 3. Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures main contract oscillated and consolidated. With price concessions, downstream demand increased, inventory pressure eased, and prices rose slightly [2] - Plastic and polypropylene main contracts oscillated above the 5 - day moving average. For polyethylene, supply decreased due to more maintenance and less cargo arrival, and demand was stable. For polypropylene, supply was expected to shrink, but high prices restricted downstream procurement [2] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fell due to factors like tanker passage in the Strait of Hormuz and terminal negative feedback. Middle - East oil supply might recover, and terminal demand was affected [3] - Ethylene glycol prices first rose due to supply concerns and then fell as the situation changed. Short - fiber load decreased slightly, and bottle - chip supply shrank with potential price pressure in the medium - term [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - East China pure benzene spot price fell, and domestic production decreased. The arrival volume decreased, and port inventory declined. Styrene futures main contract continued high - level consolidation, with expected supply and demand reduction and some fundamental support [5] Coal - chemical - Methanol futures maintained high - level oscillation. Import volume decreased, port inventory decreased, and the market was expected to be strong. Urea futures price fell, supply was high, and the market was expected to oscillate in the short - term [6] Chlor - alkali - PVC continued a strong trend. Supply decreased, inventory was still under pressure, and it was expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term. Caustic soda oscillated weakly, with inventory decrease and potential large fluctuations [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash fell from a high level. Inventory decreased slightly, supply increased slightly, and it followed macro - sentiment in the short - term. Glass oscillated weakly, with high inventory and limited demand improvement, and was expected to oscillate in a wide range [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is expected to remain strong in the near term, and it is advisable to go long at low prices [1] - The corn fundamentals remain strong, and it is recommended to replenish stocks or buy on dips [2] - For eggs, although the short - term supply and demand are loose, there is an obvious downward expectation for the inventory in March, and a low - long strategy is suggested [3] - The pig market is in a stage of bottom - grinding oscillation, with short - term pressure on capacity clearance, and the far - month contracts may have some support [4][5] Summary by Related Catalog Soybean - Northeast soybean spot prices are stable overall, with tight supply of high - quality soybeans and firm prices [1] - There is little remaining soybean in the grassroots level, and farmers are reluctant to sell at a low price. After the Spring Festival, the restocking demand of traders supports high soybean prices [1] - Although the Brazilian soybean shipment recovery over the weekend alleviated the concerns about near - month arrivals, the tight supply situation has not been fully resolved [1] - Zhuochuang Information believes that soybean prices still have room to rise in March, and the price inflection point may occur in early April [1] Corn - In Northeast China, the post - festival grain sales progress is slower than in previous years, and the remaining grain inventory is at a low level [2] - Deep - processing and feed enterprises have low inventory levels, and large purchasing enterprises such as CGS and COFCO are increasing their purchasing efforts, driving up regional prices [2] - As the temperature rises, the enthusiasm for grassroots grain sales increases, and the grain rights are gradually transferred to the trading link [2] - Affected by the rising transportation costs and continuous losses of downstream enterprises, the price increase in Northeast China has narrowed [2] - In Shandong, the daily arrival of corn is persistently low, and the enterprises' restocking demand is increasing. The market shows the characteristics of "price increase but volume decrease" [2] - The corn purchase price in Shandong has approached 1.25 yuan per catty, and some enterprises' quotes have reached 1.26 yuan per catty [2] Egg - As of the end of February 2026, the national laying hen inventory was 1.35 billion, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, which restricts the rapid and significant rise of egg prices [3] - Due to the low egg - laying hen replenishment volume from October to November 2025, the number of newly - laid hens from March to April 2026 will decrease significantly [3] - With the improvement of breeding profitability, the slaughter of laying hens will accelerate, and the national laying hen inventory will decline significantly from April to May [3] - The sharp rise in feed raw materials squeezes the profit of laying hens and accelerates industry capacity clearance [3] Pig - As of the end of February 2026, the inventory of commercial pigs in China was 37.3205 million, a month - on - month increase of 1.79% and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.91% [4] - The inventory of breeding sows at the end of February was 5.0204 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01% and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.45% [4] - The commercial pig出栏 volume at the end of February was 9.9223 million, a month - on - month decrease of 12.95% and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11.35% [4] - The average weight of commercial pig出栏 this week is 123.17 kg, which is stable week - on - week, increasing the supply pressure [4] - The pig出栏 accelerates in March, but the demand remains weak, and the feed cost rises, worsening the breeding profit and forcing short - term capacity clearance [5] - Some third - party institutions predict a slight reduction in the inventory of breeding sows in February, and the far - month contracts may have some support, but the supply - demand pattern will not change until the official data is significantly adjusted [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Polypropylene, plastic, pure benzene, styrene, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, bottle - chip, methanol, urea, and caustic soda are rated as ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - PVC is rated as ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish trend with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Soda ash and glass do not have clear star ratings in the report Core Viewpoints - The chemical market is generally affected by factors such as the Middle East situation, oil prices, and supply - demand relationships. Different chemical products show different trends and investment opportunities [2][3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - The main contracts of olefin futures closed higher. Crude oil and propylene futures prices increased, supporting market sentiment. The cost pressure on downstream products eased, and production enterprises were less willing to offer discounts. The trading atmosphere improved slightly [2] - The main contracts of plastic and polypropylene closed higher. High - fluctuating oil prices boosted market sentiment. For polyethylene, domestic supply decreased due to more maintenance, and overall supply pressure eased. Demand from the northern spring plowing and packaging film factories was stable but enterprises mainly consumed inventory. For polypropylene, supply was expected to shrink, but high raw material prices restricted downstream purchasing [2] Polyester - Affected by the Middle East situation, PX and PTA prices were strong but faced intraday fluctuations. There was mid - term negative feedback pressure. Ethylene glycol prices rose due to cost and supply factors but also had downstream negative feedback. Short - fiber followed raw material fluctuations, and bottle - chip had opportunities for positive spreads and processing margin repair [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The main contract of pure benzene futures continued to be strong, but market sentiment cooled. Domestic pure benzene production and imports were expected to decrease, and short - term cost support was obvious. The main contract of styrene futures closed higher, but the spot market showed weakness [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures market was strong. Import arrivals in coastal areas decreased, and the East China port inventory declined. Domestic production decreased, and demand recovered. The urea market was generally strong. Supply was high, and agricultural demand support weakened, but compound fertilizer enterprises increased their loads [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC showed a strong trend. Overall supply decreased, industry inventory was under pressure, and downstream开工 increased seasonally. The export market was expected to improve. Caustic soda prices fell from high levels. Liquid caustic soda inventory decreased, and export inquiries were good. The national chlorine - alkali load decreased [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices fell from high levels. Industry inventory decreased slightly but was still under pressure. Supply remained high, and downstream demand was stable or increasing. Glass prices fell. Mid - and upstream inventory was high, and downstream demand improvement was limited. The market was expected to show wide - range fluctuations [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The sugar market is affected by factors such as production expectations in India and Thailand, and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. The international sugar market is in a bear - market cycle with a relatively loose short - term supply - demand structure, but there is potential for the trading logic of sugar as a bio - energy to be amplified. The domestic sugar market has a neutral - bearish supply - demand situation but is supported by cost and policy expectations [1]. - The jujube market has limited trading information. The supply pressure is the main factor suppressing prices. The current futures price is oscillating strongly, and short - term attention should be paid to the rebound amplitude for short - selling operations [4]. - The natural rubber market has a mix of long and short factors. Overseas production areas are entering the shutdown period, and domestic production areas have good conditions for new - season tapping. The demand from tire enterprises is recovering, and the inventory situation is complex. The synthetic rubber market is mainly affected by the supply of butadiene, and the price is affected by the Middle East conflict [5]. Summary by Variety Sugar - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the SR605 contract closed at 5447 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.57%, and the SR609 contract closed at 5483 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.66%. The ICE raw sugar main contract was at 14.41 cents/pound with a daily decrease of 0.14% [1]. - **Important Information**: As of March 11, 2026, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume increased by 0.48% year - on - year, sugar production increased by 2.98% year - on - year. Brokerage firm StoneX lowered the forecast of the global sugar supply surplus to 870,000 tons [1]. - **Market Logic**: The international sugar market is affected by production expectations and geopolitical conflicts. The domestic sugar market has a neutral - bearish supply - demand situation but is supported by cost and policy expectations [1]. Jujube - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the CJ605 contract closed at 9095 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.17%, and the CJ609 contract closed at 9465 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.26% [4]. - **Important Information**: Last week, the physical inventory of 36 sample points decreased by 0.99% week - on - week and increased by 7.39% year - on - year. The arrival of vehicles at the Guangdong Ruyifang market decreased by 3 vehicles [4]. - **Market Logic**: The jujube trees in Xinjiang are in the dormant stage, and there is a possibility of early budding. The supply pressure is the main factor suppressing prices, and the futures price is oscillating strongly [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell at high prices; enterprises can consider selling hedging operations [4]. Rubber Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: As of March 13, 2026, the RU main contract closed at 16765 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 1.82%, and the NR main contract closed at 13320 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 2.31% [5]. - **Important Information**: On Friday, the price of Thai raw material glue was 71 baht/kg, and the cup - rubber price was 58 baht/kg. As of March 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased slightly, and the social inventory decreased slightly [5]. - **Market Logic**: Overseas production areas are entering the shutdown period, domestic production areas have good conditions for new - season tapping, tire enterprise demand is recovering, and the inventory situation is complex [5]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: The BR main contract's center of gravity moved up last week, with obvious wide - range oscillations [5]. - **Important Information**: On Friday, the prices of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber in the market increased [5]. - **Market Logic**: The BR futures price is mainly affected by the supply of butadiene, which is related to the operation of naphtha cracking to ethylene plants and the Middle East conflict [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a short - long thinking for RU and NR in the near term; hold BR long positions cautiously [6].