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浦银国际:盈利将成为下阶段行情主导力量 关注AI和出海主线
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-10-03 03:48
Core Viewpoint - The upcoming market trends will be driven by improving corporate earnings, with a focus on AI and overseas expansion as key investment themes [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The liquidity-driven market rally is expected to continue into the fourth quarter, supported by anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and positive sentiment from potential U.S.-China meetings at the APEC summit [2][4]. - In September, external risks eased, leading to a rebound in Chinese stocks listed abroad, with the MSCI China Index rising by 6.1% and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increasing by 7.8% [3]. - The Hong Kong stock market is projected to perform well in the fourth quarter due to reduced uncertainties from U.S.-China trade negotiations and strong inflows from foreign and southbound capital [4]. Group 2: Earnings Outlook - Corporate earnings are expected to become the main driving force for the market, with major Chinese stock indices' earnings growth projected to reach double digits next year [5]. - After significant downward adjustments, earnings expectations for the MSCI China Index and the Hang Seng Index have stabilized, indicating that previous negative impacts have been accounted for [5]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy should focus on AI and overseas expansion, as these areas are likely to yield better returns amidst the ongoing market rotation [2][6]. - Recent market behavior shows a rotation of funds from crowded sectors like new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals to undervalued technology sectors related to AI, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [6].