Core Viewpoint - In 2026, the global debt issue will present three main solutions: real growth exceeding real interest rates (growth-based debt reduction), inflation exceeding expectations (inflation-based debt reduction), and fiscal tightening (fiscal-based debt reduction). Both AI and gold are expected to benefit from these paths, forming a dual mainline logic for asset performance [1] Group 1: A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" pattern in 2026, driven by a profound change in corporate profit structures despite ongoing weakness in real estate, infrastructure, consumption, social financing, and PPI [1] - The net asset return on equity (ROE) for non-financial enterprises in the A-share market has stabilized over several quarters, with profits from eight advanced manufacturing industries now accounting for 38% of total profits [1] - Companies with overseas operations have seen their overseas revenue share increase to 20%, with overseas market gross margins exceeding domestic margins by 5 percentage points, which may drive a rebound in overall A-share ROE after stabilization [1] Group 2: Investment Directions - Investment focus should be on industries with constrained supply and clear prosperity trends, such as the AI industry chain, which has strong capital expenditure demand and limited short-term supply release [1] - Other sectors to consider include energy storage and metals, which have undergone capacity clearing [1] - Tactically, it is recommended to utilize market adjustments to position for the spring rally, prioritizing the aforementioned high-prosperity sectors [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The main trend in the A-share market for 2026 is a technology-driven bull market, with AI leading the growth sectors. Other growth sectors are expected to have relatively lower elasticity. The emphasis on cyclical reversal and growth emergence will continue into 2026, particularly in commercial aerospace and humanoid robotics, which are anticipated to see sustained growth and market attention [2][3]. Sector Performance and Reversal - Industries that performed poorly in 2025, such as shipbuilding and rail transit, are expected to experience a reversal in 2026. These sectors had strong performances in 2024 but underwent an adjustment period in 2025. The commercial aerospace and humanoid robotics sectors are projected to continue their growth trends in 2026 [3][4]. - The engineering machinery sector's leading companies are expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20%-30% over the next three years, with companies like XCMG Machinery showing significant growth potential [3][5]. AI Industry Chain - The AI industry chain is currently driven by capital expenditure, with significant demand for upstream infrastructure such as optical modules and optical equipment. The transition of computing power from data centers (DC) to internet data centers (IDC) is increasing the demand for infrastructure like liquid cooling technology, providing development opportunities for related companies. By 2026, applications of embodied intelligent agents, including humanoid robots, autonomous driving, and drones, are expected to see more opportunities [6]. Commercial Aerospace - Commercial aerospace is viewed as a critical field combining high technology and future industries. The expectations include reduced costs for reusable rockets and satellite manufacturing, which will facilitate commercialization and open up larger market spaces. Opportunities in space computing, space energy, and lunar commercial activities present significant growth potential [7]. Lithium Battery Equipment Sector - The lithium battery equipment sector is recovering after an adjustment period from 2022 to 2024, with a new capacity cycle starting in 2025. Revenue and net profit growth turned positive in 2025, with a stock price increase of 103%. The demand for power lithium batteries and energy storage lithium batteries is fully recovering, and the expansion cycle of leading domestic battery manufacturers is expected to continue into 2026 [12]. - The solid-state battery industry is anticipated to reach a turning point in industrialization between 2026 and 2027, driven by technological improvements, demand growth, and policy support. The market size for solid-state batteries is projected to grow over 15 times from 2025 to 2030 [13]. Investment Recommendations - Key sectors and stocks to focus on include: - Engineering machinery, with XCMG Machinery recommended as a key stock due to its significant growth over the past three years and future potential [5][9]. - Humanoid robotics and commercial aerospace as emerging fields with vast industrial space [5]. - Specific companies in the lithium battery equipment sector, including leading equipment manufacturers and those involved in solid-state battery production, are recommended for their strong cash flow and technological advantages [14]. Solar Industry Insights - The solar industry has seen a significant increase in component prices, with prices for Trina Solar components rising from approximately 0.7 to over 0.82, and some exceeding 1. This price increase indicates a gradual reversal in the solar industry. If these price increases can be accepted by the power station end, the overall market may no longer incur losses, leading to a reversal [11]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, highlighting the anticipated trends and investment opportunities across various sectors.

央广网北京12月30日消息（记者高敏）据中央广播电视总台经济之声报道，展望2026年，影响A股的关 键变量有哪些？海内外政策有哪些要点值得关注？中央广播电视总台经济之声交易实况《基金观察》采 访了博时基金首席市场策略分析师陈奥。 基金观察：展望2026年，影响A股的核心变量是盈利、流动性，还是政策？ 陈奥：2025年市场是一个估值推动的行情，接下来如何去消化估值，如何让资金更有信心继续进入市 场，盈利将会成为2026年大家都会比较关注的点，即实体经济的复苏、上市公司的盈利改善，最后能否 有效地消化当前相对较高的估值？ 从今年三季报的相关数据来看，整个AI产业链、储能等相关行业的利润修复情况相比其他行业明显领 先。2026年，哪些行业的盈利能够明显复苏，并且出现明显的盈利拐点，将会比较容易受到资金的关注 和持续追踪。 流动性方面我不太担心。央行货币政策仍然是坚持适度宽松，更加的灵活，整体财政的积极以及货币的 宽松不会有大改变。同时，大家都比较认同，美联储的降息周期可能会持续下去，美元走弱，最终给全 球流动性带来的宽松预期实际上比较明确。 从需要关注的指标来看，2026年大家密切关注的是PPI是否能够转正。PPI ...

英维克（002837）市值突破千亿大关。 A股今日（12月23日）走势出现明显分化，以保险、银行为首的大市值个股拉升，小盘股走势疲弱；港股午后下探，恒生指数翻绿。 具体来看，三大股指盘中强势上扬，午后涨幅有所收窄。截至收盘，沪指微涨0.07%报3919.98点，深证成指涨0.27%，创业板指涨 0.41%，中证2000指数跌0.63%，沪深北三市合计成交19216亿元，较此前一日增加近400亿元。 A股市场超3800股飘绿，旅游餐饮、零售、食品饮料等消费板块集体下挫，曲江文旅跌停，近日4连板的庄园牧场逼近跌停；商业航天 概念跳水，顺灏股份跌停，中国卫通跌超9%；光刻机、先进封装等半导体产业链股强势，美埃科技、同飞股份等涨停；液冷服务器等 AI产业链股拉升，英维克（002837）尾盘涨停续创新高；锂电产业链股崛起，奕东电子涨停续创新高，华盛锂电等涨超10%。 此外，今日上市的三只新股——纳百川、锡华科技、天溯计量收盘分别上涨408.2%、264.5%、174.5%，盘中最高攀升至180元/股、46 元/股、150.99元/股，若以上述最高价计算，三股单签最高盈利分别达7.87万元、1.8万元、5.71万元。 港 ...

12月17日，A股午后全线爆发，沪指涨超1%，创业板指大涨超3%；港股亦上扬，恒生指数、恒生科技 指数双双涨约1%。 具体来看，沪指早盘窄幅震荡，午后在保险、券商等板块的带动下强势拉升，创业板指表现尤为强势。 截至收盘，沪指涨1.19%报3870.28点，深证成指涨2.4%，创业板指涨3.39%，科创50指数涨2.47%，沪 深北三市合计成交18345亿元，较此前一日放量约860亿元。 对于券商，银河证券表示，国家"稳增长、稳股市"、"提振资本市场"的政策目标将持续定调板块未来走 向，流动性适度宽松环境延续、资本市场环境持续优化、投资者信心重塑等多方面因素共同推动证券板 块景气度上行。当前环境下，中长期资金加速入市，市场活跃度维持高位，资本市场展现出"健康牛"态 势，财富管理转型、国际业务拓展、金融科技赋能均有望成为行业提升ROE驱动力。当前板块估值处于 历史低位，防御反弹攻守兼备。 AI产业链股强势 CPO概念等AI产业链股盘中集体走高，截至收盘，奕东电子、联特科技20%涨停，生益电子、源杰科技 等涨超10%，天孚通信、新易盛涨超9%，中际旭创涨约7%。 | 代码 | 名称 | | 涨幅% | 现价 | 涨 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant rally in the afternoon session, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 1% and the ChiNext Index soaring over 3% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.8345 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 86 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Insurance and Brokerage Sector - The insurance sector saw strong gains, led by China Pacific Insurance, with major companies like China Life and China Property & Casualty Insurance also rising over 3% [2] - Analysts suggest that the insurance industry may undergo valuation recovery due to the adjustment of preset interest rates and the development of floating income products [2] - The brokerage sector also performed well, with Huatai Securities hitting a near-limit increase and closing up about 6% [2] AI Industry Chain - Stocks related to the AI industry chain, particularly CPO concepts, saw significant increases, with companies like Yidong Electronics and Lian Te Technology hitting the 20% limit up [3] - The global AI industry is at a pivotal point of capability leap and accelerated commercialization, with leading firms in the US and China dominating the large model landscape [3][5] Lithium Mining Sector - The lithium mining sector experienced a substantial rise, with Tianhua New Energy increasing over 14% and several other companies reaching their daily limit [6] - The price of lithium carbonate futures surged over 8%, reaching a new high since June 2024, driven by supply disruptions and rising demand expectations [8] - Analysts noted that the price of lithium carbonate has increased over 70% from its low point earlier in the year, indicating strong supply and demand dynamics [8]

17日，A股午后全线爆发，沪指涨超1%，创业板指大涨超3%；港股亦上扬，恒生指数、恒生科技指数 双双涨约1%。 CPO概念等AI产业链股盘中集体走高，截至收盘，奕东电子、联特科技20%涨停，生益电子、源杰科技 等涨超10%，天孚通信、新易盛涨超9%，中际旭创（300308）涨约7%。 具体来看，沪指早盘窄幅震荡，午后在保险、券商等板块的带动下强势拉升，创业板指表现尤为强势。 截至收盘，沪指涨1.19%报3870.28点，深证成指涨2.4%，创业板指涨3.39%，科创50指数涨2.47%，沪 深北三市合计成交18345亿元，较此前一日放量约860亿元。 全A超3600股飘红，保险、券商板块联袂拉升，半导体板块强势，今日登陆科创板的沐曦股份突破800 元大关，盘中暴涨755%最高攀升至895元/股，单签最高盈利近40万元。锂矿概念拉升，天齐锂业 （002466）、赣锋锂业（002460）双双走高；CPO概念等AI产业链股爆发，奕东电子（301123）、联特 科技（301205）20%涨停，天孚通信（300394）、新易盛（300502）涨超9%。 值得注意的是，多只宽基ETF午后放量拉升，其中华泰柏瑞沪深300E ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 记者丨庞华玮 12月15日，深证成指、创业板指、深证100、创业板50等深市核心指数的样本股定期调整正式生效。这 是继上周沪深300、上证50、科创50等沪市及跨市场主要指数调整后，A股市场年内又一次大规模的指 数"新陈代谢"。 根据深圳证券交易所及深圳证券信息有限公司公告，深证成指更换17只样本股，创业板指更换8只样本 股，深证100更换7只样本股，创业板50更换5只样本股。 格上基金数据显示，跟踪深证成指、创业板指、深证100及创业板50的指数基金规模合计为2507.28亿 元。而此前已生效的上交所系列指数调整，涉及调整的指数跟踪资金规模超万亿元。 业内人士认为，近期A股重要指数样本调整正引发庞大的被动资金调仓。不过，业内人士提醒，市场通 常将指数调入视为一次性交易事件，相关预期可能在生效前已部分兑现，并在调仓完成后引发获利了 结。然而，更值得关注的是，此次调整集中指向"新质生产力"方向，这不仅会带来持续的被动资金配 置，更可能引导主动资金的中长期布局，从而对相关板块形成结构性影响。 "新质生产力"是调整核心逻辑 排排网财富公募产品 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in major A-share indices reflect a significant shift towards "new quality productivity," indicating a structural change in the market that may attract both passive and active funds for long-term investment [1][4][8]. Index Adjustments - On December 15, major indices such as the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, Shenzhen 100, and ChiNext 50 underwent sample adjustments, with 17 stocks added and 10 removed from the Shenzhen Component Index, 8 from the ChiNext Index, 7 from Shenzhen 100, and 5 from ChiNext 50 [1][3]. - The adjustments involved the removal of companies from traditional sectors and the inclusion of firms in high-growth areas such as semiconductors, AI, and new energy [4][5]. Market Impact - The adjustments are expected to trigger substantial passive fund reallocations, with over 250 billion yuan in index funds tracking the adjusted indices [6][7]. - The strategic emerging industries' weight in the ChiNext Index rose to 93%, while the Shenzhen 100's weight increased to 81%, indicating a strong focus on advanced manufacturing and digital economy sectors [5][8]. Investment Opportunities - The newly added companies generally have market capitalizations between 5 billion to 80 billion yuan and exhibit strong growth metrics, with many showing over 20% compound annual growth in revenue and net profit [4][5]. - The adjustments are seen as a long-term reflection of market structure optimization, with a focus on attracting more long-term capital into sectors aligned with "new quality productivity" [7][8].

12月15日，深证成指、创业板指、深证100、创业板50等深市核心指数的样本股定期调整正式生效。这是继上周沪深300、上证50、科创50等沪 市及跨市场主要指数调整后，A股市场年内又一次大规模的指数"新陈代谢"。 根据深圳证券交易所及深圳证券信息有限公司公告，深证成指更换17只样本股，创业板指更换8只样本股，深证100更换7只样本股，创业板50更 换5只样本股。 格上基金数据显示，跟踪深证成指、创业板指、深证100及创业板50的指数基金规模合计为2507.28亿元。而此前已生效的上交所系列指数调整， 涉及调整的指数跟踪资金规模超万亿元。 业内人士认为，近期A股重要指数样本调整正引发庞大的被动资金调仓。不过，业内人士提醒，市场通常将指数调入视为一次性交易事件，相关 预期可能在生效前已部分兑现，并在调仓完成后引发获利了结。然而，更值得关注的是，此次调整集中指向"新质生产力"方向，这不仅会带来 持续的被动资金配置，更可能引导主动资金的中长期布局，从而对相关板块形成结构性影响。 "新质生产力"是调整核心逻辑 深圳证券交易所及深圳证券信息有限公司11月28日曾发布公告称，12月15日起实施对深证成指、创业板指、深证10 ...