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中国联塑(02128):城市更新催化,高标农田拉动
HTSC· 2025-07-23 06:05
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 5.89, up from the previous target of HKD 4.36, representing a 35% increase [1][5]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that urban renewal is transitioning from large-scale expansion to improving existing stock, which is expected to catalyze demand for municipal plastic pipes due to infrastructure upgrades [1][2]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand in the agricultural plastic pipe sector, supported by stable growth in primary industry investments and high market share in engineering [1][4]. - The projected total investment in urban gas, water supply, and heating networks over the next five years is approximately CNY 4 trillion, indicating significant market opportunities [3]. Summary by Sections Urban Renewal and Market Potential - The central urban work conference highlighted urban renewal as a key strategy for enhancing quality and efficiency, with a substantial number of existing buildings (3.54 billion) and a total area of 128 billion square meters [2]. - The estimated demand for building renovations is around 2.4 billion square meters, with a stable upward trend expected [3]. Agricultural Investment and Demand Stability - First industry fixed asset investment grew by 6.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, indicating robust growth [4]. - The government aims to transform 4.55 million acres of farmland into high-standard farmland by 2035, with increased subsidy standards from CNY 1,300 to CNY 2,400 per acre [4]. Financial Projections and Valuation - The company’s EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 are CNY 0.67, CNY 0.74, and CNY 0.82 respectively, with a projected PE ratio of 8x for 2025 [5][10]. - Revenue is expected to grow from CNY 27,026 million in 2024 to CNY 33,404 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [10][19].