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外卖大变局:美团恐已失半壁江山
雪球· 2025-07-30 08:29
Core Viewpoint - Meituan aims to maintain a market share of 70% at all costs, but recent developments indicate a significant challenge to this goal as competitors like Alibaba and JD.com are rapidly increasing their market presence [2][11]. Market Dynamics - Alibaba's Taobao Flash Purchase and Ele.me have reported daily orders exceeding 90 million for two consecutive weekends, indicating a strong upward trend in order volume [2][8]. - The order punctuality rate for Taobao Flash Purchase remained stable at 96%, demonstrating its capability to handle a surge in demand despite adverse weather conditions [6][7]. - Meituan's effective market share may now be below 50%, as it faces stiff competition from Alibaba and JD.com, which together account for a significant portion of the market [8][11]. Competitive Landscape - The market is shifting towards a multi-platform competition model, moving away from a single dominant player, which is a more sustainable and healthy industry structure [11][12]. - Alibaba's strategy focuses on long-term sustainable growth rather than short-term gains, emphasizing effective and sustainable orders over artificial inflation of order numbers [9][15]. - Both Alibaba and Meituan have their strengths and weaknesses, with Alibaba's Taobao Flash Purchase showing rapid growth but lacking in certain operational efficiencies compared to Meituan [12][13]. Future Trends - The takeaway delivery market is undergoing significant transformation, presenting a large growth opportunity for all players involved, with the potential for a doubling of overall order volume [14][15]. - The competition is not merely a zero-sum game; rather, it is about enhancing service quality for consumers and merchants, which ultimately drives market growth [15].