2025.10. 13 本文字数：1909，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈杨园 "史上最长双11"的纪录正被不断刷新。尽管十一假期刚过，电商平台们已纷纷进入双11时间。在一 个夏天的外卖激战后，今年双11有何新变化值得关注。 多家电商平台已开启了双11。10月7日，快手启动双11预售，抖音电商在10月9日开启双11好物 节，同样在10月9日，京东也宣布双11开启，"现货开卖不用等"。而淘宝尽管还未正式公布双11的 整体节奏，但天猫超市已在9月底率先开启双11，并将走向近场闪购定为今年双11的目标。 京东等平台是否会跟进双11的外卖补贴也值得关注。目前，京东暂未披露秒送参与双11的具体动 作。但在今年618，京东赶在618前夕完成京东秒送完成了全面升级，京东此后披露的数据显示， 618期间通过京东秒送下单的3C配件订单量同比增长177%，运动户外同比增长166%，办公用品同 比增长219%。 尽管延续外卖补贴竞争对平台来说或许存在一定压力，但远近场结合之下，更多品类竞争也在开启。 天猫超市召开的双11商家大会上，酒水、乳制品等品牌的戏份不少，可能成为天猫超市双11重点发 力的方向。而京东秒送、美团等 ...

而天猫超市则将双11的"闪购化"明确卷到了近场四小时。天猫超市运营中心总经理循进表示，今年双11，天猫超市主站店和淘宝闪购店将双店运营，目前全 国已有31个城市用户能在淘宝闪购下单天猫超市的商品，随着供应链服务能力的升级，天猫超市要在原本半日达的基础之上，通过闪购前置仓和一日三配， 实现商品最快4小时送达。 外卖预计将在本届双11占有更多戏份。 "史上最长双11"的纪录正被不断刷新。尽管十一假期刚过，电商平台们已纷纷进入双11时间。在一个夏天的外卖激战后，今年双11有何新变化值得关注。 多家电商平台已开启了双11。10月7日，快手启动双11预售，抖音电商在10月9日开启双11好物节，同样在10月9日，京东也宣布双11开启，"现货开卖不用 等"。而淘宝尽管还未正式公布双11的整体节奏，但天猫超市已在9月底率先开启双11，并将走向近场闪购定为今年双11的目标。 越拉越长的双11背后，如何在这个新鲜感渐失的大促节找到新增量是电商平台的共同焦虑，一个值得关注的变化是，外卖预计将在本届双11占有更多戏份。 近场零售要如何改变电商乃至大消费？电商平台们开始答题。 此前，阿里妈妈市场部及商业化运营中心品牌业务负责人虎豹（花 ...

Group 1: Local Life and E-commerce - The competition in local life services is expected to continue in Q4 2025, with major platforms like Meituan, JD, and Alibaba intensifying their investments in delivery services and instant retail [2][3] - In Q2 2025, Meituan, JD, and Alibaba reported significant losses in local life services, but these losses are anticipated to peak in Q3 due to increased summer demand and promotional activities [2][3] - The e-commerce sector is experiencing reduced competitive pressure, with online retail sales reaching 1.02 trillion yuan in August 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [4] Group 2: Tourism and Hospitality - The tourism sector is witnessing a recovery, with a 7% year-on-year increase in cross-regional travel during the National Day holiday, indicating a shift in traveler preferences towards experiential travel [7][8] - Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) are benefiting from the overall growth in tourism, with major players maintaining stable performance despite increased competition from new entrants [7] - The hotel industry is expected to reach a bottoming out phase, with leading companies like Jinjiang and Huazhu showing resilience and potential for profit recovery in Q4 2025 [10][11] Group 3: Retail and Consumer Goods - The offline retail sector is undergoing significant transformations, with supermarkets like Yonghui Supermarket expected to complete major store renovations, leading to improved profitability [9] - The retail landscape is shifting towards quality retail, with community stores like convenience stores maintaining high growth rates, while traditional department stores face slower growth [9] - The mother and baby retail sector is benefiting from supportive government policies and adjustments in store formats, leading to a notable recovery in same-store sales [14] Group 4: Cross-border E-commerce - Cross-border e-commerce is experiencing profit differentiation due to external factors like tariffs, with platform-based companies showing stable performance while product-based companies seek innovative advantages [12][13] - The sales peak for cross-border e-commerce is anticipated in the second half of 2025, driven by promotional events like Amazon's Prime Day, which saw a 30.3% increase in online spending [12][13] Group 5: Recommendations - Key investment targets include Yonghui Supermarket, Alibaba, Meituan, and various hotel chains such as Jinjiang and Huazhu, reflecting a diversified approach across sectors [5]

阿里巴巴Q2财报电话会指出，品牌线下门店加入淘宝闪购，在天猫线上线下一体化经营，将给消费者 带来全新购物体验，预计未来3年有1万亿交易增量。 (家电网® HEA.CN) 此外，淘金币玩法打通闪购。用户在淘金币频道下单闪购订单，即送 500 淘金币，如果实付金额大于 30 元，则赠送1000 淘金币。 最新财报显示，8月前三周淘宝闪购带动淘宝App的月度活跃消费者同比增长25%。品牌官方货源、30 分钟达的即时消费体验，也让加入淘宝闪购的品牌商家获得了显著的生意增长。数据显示，仅7月，就 有395个非餐品牌商家在淘宝闪购月成交突破百万、66个品牌突破千万；截至9月，已有美的、追觅、倍 轻松、安热沙等260家品牌天猫旗舰店接入淘宝闪购，范围覆盖3C数码、美妆个护、运动户外、服饰、 百货、母婴、宠物等多个品类。 淘宝闪购正式推出双11福利：88VIP点外卖天天享5折，免单红包数量超1000万份。 据介绍，10月15日至11月14日，88VIP用户进入闪购频道，每日专享两个5折红包；双11期间，88VIP还 将解锁折上再打95折等专属福利。整个双11周期，用户搜索"闪购双11"进入活动页面，即可抢超1000万 份免单 ...

Group 1: Key Insights on AMR Industry and Company - The report highlights that Jizhi Jia, established in 2015, has become the largest provider of warehousing fulfillment solutions in the AMR (Autonomous Mobile Robot) sector, with expectations for significant revenue growth driven by rising labor costs and increased supply chain efficiency demands in e-commerce and retail by 2025 [10][8]. - The AMR industry is anticipated to enter a supernormal profit window as the penetration rate approaches 10%, with projections indicating a global market size exceeding $162 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 31.3% from 2025 to 2029 [10][8]. - The report discusses three expected discrepancies: the revolution in warehousing automation, the integration of software and hardware solutions with a focus on AI algorithms, and the case studies of repeat purchases from major clients like UPS and S&S Activewear, indicating strong market demand and customer retention [10][8]. Group 2: Insights on Alibaba (BABA) - Alibaba's FY2Q26 forecast indicates continued acceleration in cloud revenue, driven by a strong market share of 35.8% and increased investments in AI, with expectations for cloud revenue growth to further accelerate [17][12]. - The report notes that Alibaba's GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) is experiencing healthy growth, with a take rate increase contributing to high-quality revenue growth, supported by a 13.54% year-on-year increase in online retail sales in July and August 2025 [12][17]. - The "integrated e-commerce" strategy is showing rapid growth in instant retail orders, with daily order volumes surpassing 90 million, indicating a clear path to narrowing short-term losses in this segment [12][14].

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant growth potential of the AMR (Autonomous Mobile Robot) industry, particularly for the company "极智嘉" (Geek+) as it is positioned to capitalize on rising labor costs and increasing supply chain efficiency demands in e-commerce and retail sectors by 2025 [10] - The report discusses three expected discrepancies in the AMR market, emphasizing the revolutionary impact of AMR on warehouse automation and the potential for excess returns as market penetration approaches critical thresholds [10] - The report also outlines the strategic focus of "阿里巴巴" (Alibaba) on enhancing its cloud services and AI investments, indicating a robust growth trajectory for its cloud revenue and a commitment to integrating AI across its platforms [12][17] Summary by Sections AMR Industry Analysis - "极智嘉" has established itself as the largest provider of warehouse fulfillment solutions globally since its inception in 2015, with a comprehensive and standardized solution set that includes various automation strategies [10] - The AMR market is projected to exceed USD 162 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 31.3% from 2025 to 2029, indicating a critical growth phase approaching in 2025 [10] - The report identifies three expected discrepancies: the revolutionary shift in logistics from "man to goods" to "goods to man," the potential for leading companies to dominate the market, and the emergence of excess return opportunities as market penetration increases [10] Alibaba's Growth Prospects - Alibaba's GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) is experiencing healthy growth, driven by an increase in take rates, with online retail sales in China showing a year-on-year growth of 13.54% in July and 12.53% in August 2025 [12] - The company's "integrated e-commerce" strategy is yielding rapid growth in instant retail orders, with daily orders surpassing 90 million on weekends, indicating a clear path to reducing short-term losses [12][14] - Alibaba Cloud maintains a leading market share of 35.8% in the industry, with expectations for continued revenue acceleration driven by increased AI investments and infrastructure development [17] Shipping and Port Fees Impact - The Chinese government's announcement to impose special port fees on U.S. vessels starting October 14, 2025, is expected to create short-term disruptions in shipping costs, potentially leading to non-linear price increases [9][13] - The fee structure will escalate over the years, starting at RMB 400 per net ton in 2025 and increasing to RMB 1120 by 2028, which could significantly impact shipping operations and costs for U.S. vessels [13] - The report suggests that the limited number of U.S. flagged vessels and the potential for increased operational costs may create opportunities for Chinese shipbuilding and shipping companies [13]

2025 年 10 月 12 日 版及 行业 相关研究 《阿里巴巴 (BABA) 点评：加大 AI 投 入，ASI 为终极目标》 2025/09/25 《AI 赋能本地生活竞争,社零保持稳健增 长——商贸零售行业周报 (9.15-9.19)》 2025/09/21 证券分析师 赵令伊 A0230518100003 zhaoly2@swsresearch.com 联系人 李秀琳 (8621)23297818× lixl2@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 本期投资后示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 超长大促简化玩法， 淘宝闪购 ss双十 商贸零售行业周报 (10.6-10.10) 一周主要回顾与展望：在 2025 年 10 月 6 日至 2025 年 10 月 10 日期间，商贸零售指 数下跌 0.40%，相较于沪深 300 上涨 0.11pct，在申万一级行业中排名第 20 位。社会 服务指数下跌 1.01%，相较于沪深 300 指数下跌 0.49pct，在申万一级行业中排名第 24 位。 2025 年"双 11" 电商大促已进入启动密集期，超长周期与玩法简化成为本次特点 ...

行 业 及 产 业 商贸零售 2025 年 10 月 12 日 超长大促简化玩法，淘宝闪购首次 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 《阿里巴巴（BABA）点评：加大 AI 投 入，ASI 为终极目标》 2025/09/25 《AI 赋能本地生活竞争，社零保持稳健增 长——商贸零售行业周报（9.15-9.19）》 2025/09/21 证券分析师 赵令伊 A0230518100003 zhaoly2@swsresearch.com 联系人 李秀琳 (8621)23297818× lixl2@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 研 究 报 告 参与双十一 看好 ——商贸零售行业周报（10.6-10.10） ⚫ 一周主要回顾与展望：在 2025 年 10 月 6 日至 2025 年 10 月 10 日期间，商贸零售指 数下跌 0.40%，相较于沪深 300 上涨 0.11pct，在申万一级行业中排名第 20 位。社会 服务指数下跌 1.01%，相较于沪深 300 指数下跌 0.49pct，在申万 ...

Group 1: OpenAI and Sora App - OpenAI is accelerating the rollout of its Sora App, a video generation model, following its launch on social media and the iPhone platform [1] - The Sora App is now available for pre-registration on Google Play for users in the US and Canada, with plans for a phased global rollout [1] - Sora App is positioned as an AI video content social platform, combining features of TikTok and Midjourney, with a customizable video feed for users [1] Group 2: SoftBank and OpenAI Investment - SoftBank is nearing an agreement with global banks to secure a new collateralized loan of $5 billion using Arm stock to invest further in OpenAI [2] - This new loan will increase SoftBank's total collateralized loans against Arm stock to $18.5 billion [2] - SoftBank is also involved in a $500 billion "Stargate" AI data center infrastructure project alongside OpenAI and Oracle [3] Group 3: AI and Energy Solutions - Elon Musk proposed a solution to double the US electricity output by utilizing nighttime energy storage and daytime power release for AI operations [6] - The projected increase in energy demand from AI data centers in the US is estimated to be between 6-13 gigawatts annually by 2025-2026 [6] - To address a projected power shortfall of 18-27 gigawatts by the end of 2026, the US will need to add 110-205 gigawatt-hours of storage capacity over the next two years [6] Group 4: Didi Autonomous Driving - Didi Autonomous Driving announced a D round financing of 2 billion yuan to accelerate L4 autonomous driving and AI research [7] - The company aims to enhance safety, efficiency, and experience in transportation through advancements in L4 technology [8] - Didi has begun full-scene, fully driverless testing in complex scenarios in Beijing and Guangzhou, with plans for a new generation of autonomous vehicles to be delivered by the end of 2025 [8] Group 5: Samsung and New Product Launch - Samsung launched the W26 foldable smartphone, starting at 16,999 yuan, featuring a thickness of 8.9mm when folded and 4.2mm when opened [9] - The device is equipped with the Qualcomm Snapdragon 8 for Galaxy mobile platform and supports satellite communication services [10] Group 6: BYD New Vehicle Release - BYD launched the Han long-range version with prices ranging from 159,800 to 215,800 yuan, offering both hybrid and pure electric options [12] - The new model features enhanced electric range, with the hybrid version achieving 245 km and the pure electric version starting at 635 km [13] Group 7: Neuralink and Brain-Machine Interface - Neuralink demonstrated a brain-machine interface allowing a patient with ALS to control a robotic arm for various tasks, part of its FDA-approved CONVOY research project [14]

生意增长。 数据显示，仅7月，有395个非餐品牌商家在淘宝闪购月成交突破百万、66个品牌突破千万；截至9月， 已有美的、追觅、倍轻松、安热沙等260家品牌天猫旗舰店接入淘宝闪购，范围覆盖3C数码、美妆个 护、运动户外、服饰、百货、母婴、宠物等多个品类。 10月15日至11月14日，88VIP用户进入闪购频道，每日专享两个5折红包；"双11"期间，88VIP还将解锁 折上再打95折等福利。整个"双11"周期，用户搜索"闪购双11"进入活动页面，即可抢超1000万份免单红 包，并天天都有机会抢免单。 此外，淘金币玩法打通闪购。用户在淘金币频道下单闪购订单，即送 500 淘金币，如果实付金额大于 30 元，则赠送1000 淘金币。 淘宝闪购自4月上线以来增长迅猛，最新财报显示，8月前三周淘宝闪购带动淘宝App的月度活跃消费者 同比增长25%。品牌官方货源、30分钟达的即时消费体验，也让加入淘宝闪购的品牌商家获得了显著的 深圳商报·读创客户端首席记者 陈小慧 淘宝闪购"双11"来了！记者注意到，淘宝闪购放出"双11"大招：88VIP点外卖天天享5折，免单红包数量 超1000万份。据悉，今年淘宝闪购首次参与天猫"双11 ...