Investment Focus - Alphabet (GOOGL US) is expected to maintain good visibility in its advertising business due to the gradual release of its valuation under pressure from AI search, with a projected 30%+ growth in cloud business for the year and margin improvement driven by scale effects [1] - Alibaba (BABA US) is anticipated to see a cloud business growth rate of 28%-30%, benefiting from strong momentum in instant retail, with Taobao expected to achieve a 20-30% MAU growth driven by flash purchase [1] - NVIDIA (NVDA US) is projected to achieve strong revenue growth in FY2027, with GB300 series products expected to account for two-thirds of Blackwell series products, and a revenue target of $500 billion over the next five quarters [1] - Tencent (700 HK) is recommended as a top pick, with a target price of 700, driven by steady growth in core gaming and advertising businesses, and a projected near 20% growth rate in advertising [3] - New Oxygen (SY US) is focusing on the light medical beauty sector with a rapid expansion plan, aiming to open 50 self-operated stores by 2025, supported by a strong marketing capability and low customer acquisition costs [3] - Ctrip (TCOM US) is expected to benefit from steady growth in domestic leisure travel and the recovery of outbound travel, with a projected revenue growth of 14% to 71.1 billion yuan in 2026 [3] - Huazhu (HTHT US) is transitioning to a high-margin franchise model, with a target price of $52, supported by a strong recovery in industry RevPar [4] - Futu (FUTU US) is positioned for long-term growth in the virtual asset business, with a user base of 3.1 million and a current valuation offering a safety margin [4] - AIA (1299 HK) is expected to see steady growth in new business value and operational indicators, with a forward PEV of 1.46x [4] - Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) is actively involved in global power station project contracting, with significant opportunities in the U.S. market due to the demand for power supply capabilities [9]

据第一财经，11月28日，记者获悉，淘宝闪购取消超时扣款范围扩大，在12月3日将扩大覆盖至北京、杭州、广州、武汉、成都、厦门等60城，年底前将 覆盖全国直营城市。 图源：视觉中国 今年以来，淘宝闪购持续推广服务分机制，以正向激励和技术牵引骑士服务，通过好的履约加分、超时送达扣分的方式，让骑士收入不再因超时受影响， 多劳多得，优劳优得，实现骑士安全、履约效率与用户体验的协同提升。具体规则上，面向众包骑士，淘宝闪购积分制方式更科学、更温和，形成更有效 的弹性约束。在70分的基础设计上，顺利送达、没有违规就有加分，超过75分有额外奖励；让消费者体验受损、影响履约的行为会扣分，对超时来说，1 次最多扣2分。 此前报道>> 近日，有网友发文称，饿了么App最新内测版本已更名为"淘宝闪购"，版本号更新至12.0.1。 消费者王先生（化名）称："我11月3日收到内测邀请，饿了么App更新后版本号变为12开头，安装完毕名称变为淘宝闪购，配色也从蓝色变成了橙色。" 11月4日，红星资本局重新下载饿了么App，logo主色调是蓝色，但下方有淘宝闪购字样。 第一财经记者查询各大手机应用平台发现，目前饿了么app图标中已显示"双11 ...

Core Insights - The report reveals the troubling reality of the food delivery industry, highlighting that while order volumes have increased, actual revenue for merchants has decreased due to aggressive subsidy wars [1][3][10] - The competition among major players in the food delivery market has led to a significant decline in profits for many restaurants, as they struggle to balance between participating in subsidies and maintaining profitability [4][10] Group 1: Industry Dynamics - A study covering over 40,000 merchants indicates that during the peak of subsidy wars, daily order volumes increased by an average of 7%, but actual revenue dropped by approximately 4%, leading to an average profit decline of 8.9% [1][3] - The phenomenon of "substitution effect" is evident, where food delivery is replacing dine-in services, resulting in a decline of over 10% in both order volumes and actual revenue for dine-in services [4][10] - Merchants not participating in subsidies are also affected, as customers shift towards competitors offering subsidies, creating a dilemma for them [4][10] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The food delivery war began in February 2025 when JD.com announced its entry into the market with a "0 commission" policy, leading to a series of aggressive subsidy initiatives from major players like Meituan and Alibaba [5][6] - By July 2025, Meituan reported a daily order volume exceeding 1.2 billion, while Alibaba's Taobao Flash Purchase reached 80 million orders, showcasing the scale of competition and the financial stakes involved [5][6] - Despite the intense competition, regulatory scrutiny has increased, with the market regulator intervening to address the ongoing subsidy wars [6][10] Group 3: Strategic Implications - The competition is not merely about food delivery but reflects a broader strategy among giants to capture higher-frequency consumer engagement and enhance user activity on their platforms [7][8] - JD.com aims to leverage its supply chain capabilities to support the entire food service industry, while Alibaba focuses on creating synergistic effects within its ecosystem to enhance user experience [13][10] - Meituan is committed to maintaining its delivery network and has initiated plans to support merchants financially, indicating a shift towards a more sustainable business model [9][10] Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing battle suggests a shift from zero-sum competition to a more complex ecosystem where companies must innovate beyond subsidies to create sustainable value [12][14] - The industry's future will depend on the ability of these companies to build healthier, more equitable ecosystems that balance efficiency with fairness and short-term gains with long-term value [12][14]

Core Insights - Alibaba is undergoing a significant transformation, with 2025 being a pivotal year for the company as it shifts focus towards AI and cloud computing, moving beyond its traditional e-commerce roots [2][5][8] Group 1: Business Transformation - Alibaba's initial core business was e-commerce, primarily through Taobao and Tmall, but it has expanded into food delivery with the acquisition of Ele.me and invested heavily in cloud computing [2][4] - The company has established itself as a global leader in cloud computing, with its cloud network covering 29 regions and serving over 5 million customers, including 190 Fortune 500 companies [4][5] - The recent financial report indicates that Alibaba's total revenue for the first nine months reached approximately 247.8 billion yuan, a 5% year-on-year increase, while operating profit fell by 85% due to heavy investments in delivery and AI [5][6] Group 2: AI Investment Strategy - Alibaba has committed to a three-year AI infrastructure investment plan with a total expected investment of 380 billion yuan, indicating a strong pivot towards AI [5][8] - The company has already invested around 120 billion yuan in AI over the past year, with plans for further investments of at least 200-300 billion yuan in the next two to three years [8][9] - AI-related products have shown significant growth, with quarterly revenue from Alibaba Cloud reaching 39.8 billion yuan, a 34% increase, and AI products achieving triple-digit growth for nine consecutive quarters [6][8] Group 3: Competitive Positioning - Alibaba's e-commerce segment reported a revenue of 102.9 billion yuan, growing by 9%, while its instant retail business saw a 60% increase in revenue to 22.9 billion yuan [6][8] - The company is positioning itself to compete aggressively in the AI space, aiming to become a global leader, which reflects a strategic shift that could redefine its business model [9] - Alibaba's advancements in AI not only enhance its competitive edge but also signify a shift in the global tech landscape, positioning Chinese companies as key players in AI development [9]

Core Insights - Alibaba's net profit for Q2 of fiscal year 2026 dropped significantly to 20.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter decline of 53% and over 51% respectively, primarily due to massive subsidies in the food delivery and instant retail sectors [2][6] - The company's sales expenses doubled to 66.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 105% year-on-year increase, as it invested nearly 120 billion yuan in the first half of the year to compete in the market [3][4] - Alibaba's revenue for the quarter reached 247.8 billion yuan, a 5% year-on-year growth, which, when excluding divested businesses, translates to a 15% growth, aligning with JD's performance and surpassing Pinduoduo's 9% [2][4] Financial Performance - The adjusted net profit under non-GAAP standards was 10.4 billion yuan, marking a substantial 72% year-on-year decline [2][6] - Alibaba's adjusted EBITA for its China e-commerce group was approximately 10.5 billion yuan, down nearly 73% quarter-on-quarter and 76% year-on-year, largely due to losses in instant retail [6][5] - The revenue from Alibaba's cloud business was 39.8 billion yuan, showing a 34% year-on-year increase, driven by growth in public cloud services [9][10] Market Competition - The intense competition in the food delivery market led to Alibaba's significant investment in the Taobao Flash Sale, which announced a 50 billion yuan subsidy plan [3][4] - JD's marketing expenses were more restrained at 21.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 110% year-on-year increase but a decrease in quarter-on-quarter growth [4] - Instant retail revenue for Alibaba reached 22.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 60%, indicating a strong performance despite the overall profit decline [4][5] Strategic Focus - Alibaba's CEO expressed confidence in the potential of AI and cloud services, stating that there is no AI bubble expected in the next three years, and the company plans to continue investing heavily in these areas [9][11] - The company has invested approximately 120 billion yuan in AI and cloud infrastructure over the past four quarters, with a capital expenditure of 31.5 billion yuan in the latest quarter [10][11] - Future investments in instant retail are expected to decrease, while AI investments may increase, reflecting a strategic shift in focus [8][11]

尽管看上去依然热闹非凡，但毋庸置疑的是，一场行业大洗牌正在电商领域静默地进行，曾经风光无限的增长神话，正在让位于残酷的现实。 实际上，近年以来，电商平台普遍面临的增长压力已有目共睹。这一点在头部电商公司最新发布的财报中得到集中体现，阿里虽然营收仍在增长，但净利 润却暴跌；京东更是"增收不增利"；拼多多增速连续两季降至个位数。 与此同时，电商市场涌入众多新玩家，尤其是抖音和小红书的加速冲击，传统电商平台也在不断拓展业务边际，这都昭示行业走到一个新的转折点。 某种意义上，目前电商的局面，颇有点像各在座玩家进入了"惯蛋局"关键的"报牌"时刻，但没有人愿意下牌桌。 接下来的故事，谁将成为新的王者，谁又会让位于新人？当然，市场终究会给出答案。 但无论如何，零售的本质从未改变，高效地为消费者提供物超所值的商品与服务，仍是基本的生存法则。"讲故事不如守住本分"，这句话，放在电商行 业，同样适用。 01 财报背后：多因素下的重重压力 种种现象表明，电商行业正从高速增长期进入深度调整阶段，竞争格局正经历结构性转变。 国信证券研究院的数据显示，2022年，国内电商CR2（两家企业的集中率）集中度为60%，CR5为84%；而截至2 ...

电商利润承压下滑，云业务强势突围——阿里巴巴正处于新旧增长引擎迭代的关键时期。 11月25日晚间，阿里巴巴（NYSE:BABA/09988.HK）公布了2025财年第三季度业绩。报告显示，公司当期实现营业收入2477.95亿元，同比增长5%。若剔 除已剥离的高鑫零售和银泰业务影响，收入增速达到15%。 然而，由于持续加大对人工智能（AI）及即时零售等新兴业务的战略投入，本季度阿里巴巴经营利润同比大幅下降85%至53.65亿元；经调整EBITA（息 税及摊销前利润）也同比下降78%，为90.73亿元。在非公认会计准则下，净利润为103.52亿元，同比下降72%。 作为利润承压的关键因素之一，即时零售业务的布局进展备受市场关注。阿里电商事业群CEO蒋凡在财报会上表示，公司坚定看好闪购业态与阿里生态的 协同潜力。他指出："目前我们已完成第一阶段快速规模扩张，第二阶段的单位经济效益优化进展符合预期。闪购是淘天平台升级的核心战略之一，我们 设定了三年内GMV达到1万亿元的目标，并致力于带动相关品类的整体市场份额提升。" 在备受关注的AI业务方面，阿里管理层则释放了加码投入的信号："从大方向看，此前提出的3800亿元AI ...

Core Insights - The recent financial report from Alibaba shows steady overall revenue growth, with total revenue reaching 247.795 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15% after excluding sold businesses. However, the operating profit has significantly declined by 85% to 5.365 billion yuan, indicating pressure from the ongoing food delivery competition [1] - The food delivery battle has also affected Meituan and JD.com, both of which reported revenue growth but a notable decline in net profits. This trend highlights the financial strain caused by the competitive landscape [1] - Alibaba's CEO of the China e-commerce division, Jiang Fan, mentioned that the first phase of scale expansion for Taobao Flash Purchase has ended, and the company is now entering a phase focused on efficiency optimization [1] Industry Analysis - The food delivery business is no longer a new trend, and major players are struggling to find innovative strategies beyond aggressive price subsidies. The current high spending model, which involves burning over 100 million yuan daily, is deemed unsustainable in the long term [1] - Alibaba's strategy appears to integrate food delivery into its broader e-commerce ecosystem, aiming to drive overall growth. JD.com has shifted its focus from the food delivery battle to other sectors like travel and in-store services, launching new apps to capture new markets [2] - Meituan has been significantly impacted by the competition, with a reported 89% decline in net profit due to high spending to maintain market share. Despite this, Meituan's stock performed relatively well after Alibaba's earnings report, likely due to market speculation that its third-quarter performance may have bottomed out [2]

Revenue Beats; Adjusted EBITA Better-Than-Feared. Alibaba delivered a solid FY2Q26, with total revenue of RMB247.8bn (+5% YoY), slightly above market expectations (consensus: RMB245.2bn). (1) Alibaba China E-commerce Group grew 16% YoY to RMB132.6bn. Customer management revenue (CMR) rose 10% YoY to RMB78.9bn (consensus: RMB77.5bn); direct sales, logistics and others increased 5% YoY to RMB24.0bn; and quick commerce (Taobao Instant Commerce + Eleme) surged 60% YoY to RMB22.9bn. (2) Cloud Intelligence Group ...

Core Insights - Alibaba's Q2 FY2026 revenue reached 247.8 billion yuan, a 5% year-on-year increase, slightly above market expectations, but adjusted net profit plummeted 72% to 10.35 billion yuan, indicating significant pressure on profitability [1] - CEO Wu Yongming expressed skepticism about the emergence of an AI bubble in the next three years, citing a persistent supply-demand imbalance in AI resources [1][9] Financial Performance - The operating profit for Alibaba dropped 85% year-on-year to 5.37 billion yuan, while adjusted EBITA fell 78% to 9.07 billion yuan [2] - Free cash flow shifted from a net inflow of 13.74 billion yuan in the previous year to a net outflow of 21.84 billion yuan [2] - Sales and marketing expenses surged 104.78% year-on-year to 66.496 billion yuan, accounting for 26.8% of revenue, up from 13.7% [2] Business Segments - E-commerce revenue was 102.93 billion yuan, a 9% increase from 94.47 billion yuan year-on-year; instant retail contributed 22.91 billion yuan, up 60% from 14.32 billion yuan; wholesale business revenue was 6.94 billion yuan, a 13% increase [3] - Adjusted EBITA for Alibaba's China e-commerce group fell 76% to 10.497 billion yuan from 44.327 billion yuan year-on-year [3] International Business - International retail business generated 28.068 billion yuan, a 10% increase from 25.618 billion yuan; international wholesale contributed 6.731 billion yuan, up 11% from 6.054 billion yuan [4] - The international segment achieved adjusted EBITA of 162 million yuan, recovering from a loss of 2.91 billion yuan in the previous year, attributed to improved operational efficiency of AliExpress [5] Global Expansion - Alibaba's international e-commerce initiatives are accelerating, with significant user growth and new market strategies, including a "global Double 11" event and partnerships in Southeast Asia [6] - The number of overseas users has grown by over 200% year-on-year, with significant increases in daily order numbers in key markets [6] Cloud and AI Growth - Alibaba Cloud's revenue grew 34% year-on-year to 39.824 billion yuan, driven by AI demand and public cloud growth, with AI-related product revenue achieving triple-digit growth for nine consecutive quarters [8] - The company plans to invest over 380 billion yuan in cloud and AI infrastructure over the next three years, with CEO Wu noting that current demand exceeds supply capabilities [8][9]