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中国通胀系列十四:10月通胀回暖,关注内需修复进度
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 07:57
Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry Core Views - In October 2025, the PPI decline continued to narrow, and the CPI turned from decline to increase. The PPI decline narrowing reflects the gradual improvement of the price environment in the industrial sector, and the CPI increase shows a mild warming trend in consumer prices. It is expected that the PPI will continue a mild recovery, and the CPI in the fourth quarter will continue the marginal improvement trend [5][6] Summary by Directory Macro Events - On November 9, 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that in October 2025, the national consumer price (CPI) increased by 0.2% year-on-year, and the industrial producer price (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [4] 10 - Month Inflation Warming PPI: Decline Improvement - The PPI decline continued to narrow. In October 2025, the national industrial producer price (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, and the month - on - month change turned from flat to an increase of 0.1%. The price of the mid - stream manufacturing industry continued to improve, some foreign - demand industries recovered, the international input impact continued, the new - quality productivity industry maintained growth, and the price of the consumption - upgrade category continued to rise [12] CPI: Food Drag Reduction - The CPI continued to rise month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline narrowed. In October, the national consumer price (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month; the month - on - month increase was 0.2%. The year - on - year decline of food prices narrowed, and the month - on - month increase expanded. The non - food price increase was stable with a slight increase, and the service consumption price continued the recovery trend [32] Appendix: CPI and PPI Data for October 2025 CPI and PPI Data Overview - In October 2025, the national consumer price (CPI) increased by 0.2% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The national industrial producer price (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, and the month - on - month change turned from flat to an increase of 0.1% [47][50] Interpretation by Chief Statistician Dong Lijuan - In October, policies to expand domestic demand continued to show results. The CPI increased by 0.2% both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year. The PPI turned from flat to an increase of 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing [54]