Report Title - 7-month economic progress with real estate investment under pressure - A panorama of China's economic data in July 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In the first half of the year, the economy grew steadily. In July, industrial growth continued, with the added value of large-scale industries increasing by 5.7% year-on-year and 0.38% month-on-month. From January to July, it increased by 6.3% year-on-year. The PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year in July (unchanged from the previous month) and 0.2% month-on-month (narrowed by 0.2% compared to the previous month). The CPI remained flat year-on-year in July (0.1% in June) and increased by 0.4% month-on-month ( -0.1% in June), ending the consecutive month-on-month decline [2]. - Domestic demand still needs improvement, and external uncertainties are increasing. In July, the economy advanced steadily. The "anti-involution" optimized the supply chain and accelerated industrial upgrading. Service consumption supported the overall consumer market. Externally, trade protectionism and geopolitical risks intertwined, and continuous vigilance was needed for the impact of commodity supply chain disruptions and new US tariff policies on the second half of the year [4]. Summary by Directory Macro Events - On August 15, National Bureau of Statistics data showed that in July, the national economy maintained a steady and progressive development trend, with production and demand continuing [6]. Growth: Steady Growth - In July, industrial growth continued. The added value of large-scale industries increased by 5.7% year-on-year and 0.38% month-on-month. From January to July, it increased by 6.3% year-on-year. By category, the mining industry increased by 5.0% year-on-year, manufacturing by 6.2%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water by 3.3%. The added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 8.4% year-on-year, and the high-tech manufacturing industry by 9.3%, 2.7 and 3.6 percentage points faster than the overall large-scale industries respectively [10]. Inflation: Month-on-Month Improvement - In July 2025, the PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year (unchanged from the previous month) and 0.2% month-on-month (narrowed by 0.2% compared to the previous month). The purchase price decreased by 4.5% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month. From January to July, the PPI decreased by 2.9% cumulatively. The CPI remained flat year-on-year in July (0.1% in June) and increased by 0.4% month-on-month ( -0.1% in June), ending the consecutive month-on-month decline. The core CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, with the increase expanding for three consecutive months, reaching a new high since March 2024 [19][39]. Investment: Marginal Slowdown - From January to July 2025, fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6% year-on-year (2.8% previously), and the month-on-month decline continued ( -0.63% in July). The investment growth rate of the secondary industry slowed down to 8.9% (manufacturing investment +6.2%), and the investment in the tertiary industry decreased by 2.3% (more affected by real estate) [53]. Production: Downstream Improvement - In the first half of 2025, the added value of large-scale industries increased by 6.4% year-on-year. The manufacturing industry increased by 7.0%. The downstream demand improved significantly, but the weakness of upstream raw material industries and export pressure were constraints [59]. Consumption: Structural Differentiation - In July 2025, the growth rate of the consumer market slowed down. From January to July, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.5% year-on-year (5.0% previously). The single - month retail sales in July increased by only 3.7% year-on-year, reaching a new low for the year. Service consumption showed resilience, while the growth of online channels slowed down [69]. Real Estate: Investment Under Pressure - From January to July, the national real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.8% compared to January - June. The sales side remained weak, but policy - driven structural optimization accelerated inventory reduction [78].

Export Performance - In July, exports showed resilience with a year-on-year increase of 7.2% compared to 5.9% in the previous month, while imports rose by 4.1% from 1.1%[1] - Cumulative export value from January to July increased by 6.1% year-on-year, up from 5.9%, while cumulative imports decreased by 2.7%, an improvement from a decline of 3.8%[1] - The trade surplus in July was $98.24 billion, down from $114.75 billion in the previous month[1] Price and Quantity Indices - The export price index reached 100.5, up from 98.7, marking a recovery since May 2023, while the export quantity index was 106.7, down from 107.7[1] - The import price index slightly increased to 99.3 from 99.2, with the import quantity index rising to 103.0 from 98.7[1] Product Structure - Cumulative export value of electromechanical products rose by 8.1%, accounting for 60.0% of total exports, while high-tech products increased by 6.0%, making up 24.2%[2] - Integrated circuit exports surged by 20.5%, and automotive exports (including chassis) grew by 9.7%, while household appliances and mobile phones saw declines of -0.4% and -10.5%, respectively[2] Regional Export Trends - Exports to the U.S. fell by 12.6%, while exports to ASEAN and the EU increased by 13.5% and 7.0%, respectively[3] - The share of exports to the U.S. was 11.8%, while ASEAN accounted for 17.7% and the EU for 14.9% of total exports[3] Investment Insights - The report highlights the resilience of Chinese exports supported by diversification in destinations and product structure upgrades[4] - Risks include fluctuating U.S. tariff policies and insufficient global demand recovery[5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures companies and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics. It is based on the publicly - released research reports of institutions in the current week, and the closing price data is from last Friday, with the weekly change calculated as the change in the closing price from the previous Friday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情数据 - **Commodities**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, commodities such as coke, copper, and iron ore had price increases, with coke rising 2.67%, copper rising 2.47%, and iron ore rising 1.92%. Commodities like corn, gold, and palm oil had price decreases, with corn falling 1.04%, gold falling 1.56%, and palm oil falling 1.87%. Crude oil had a significant drop of 12.02% [3]. - **A - shares**: During the same period, the CSI 500 rose 3.98%, the SSE 50 rose 1.27%, and the CSI 300 rose 1.95% [3]. - **Overseas Stocks**: The Nikkei 225 rose 4.55%, the Nasdaq Index rose 4.25%, and the S&P 500 rose 3.44% [3]. - **Bonds**: The 5 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.64%, the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.30%, and the 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.19% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 1.69%, the US dollar index fell 1.52%, and the US dollar central parity rate fell 0.09% [3]. 3.2大宗商品观点汇总 3.2.1宏观金融板块 - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 5 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a low risk - premium rate of the CSI 300, increased issuance of equity - oriented public funds, and sufficient bottom - supporting funds. Bearish factors included short - term difficulty in improving corporate fundamentals, the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, and over - heated market sentiment [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 3 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included net liquidity injection by the central bank, weak credit and inflation data, and strong demand for bond allocation. Bearish factors included the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and rising long - term interest rates [4]. 3.2.2能源板块 - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included falling US and Cushing crude oil inventories, reduced Russian exports, and geopolitical tensions. Bearish factors included the decline in geopolitical premiums, expected OPEC production increases, and weak terminal demand [5]. - **Eggs**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included postponed peak - season stocking, approaching stocking season, potential egg - price increases, and reduced supply due to heat. Bearish factors included limited decline in laying - hen inventory, high chick - replenishment volume, high new - production capacity, and postponed downstream stocking [5]. 3.2.3有色板块 - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 5 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, improved risk appetite, and falling global visible inventories. Bearish factors included the substitution effect of recycled copper, weakening downstream procurement, and weakening terminal demand [6]. - **Methanol**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 6 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included limited port - available goods, expected low port inventories, and increased downstream demand. Bearish factors included expected increases in Iranian imports, port inventory accumulation, potential MTO device maintenance, and a loosening supply - demand pattern [6]. 3.2.4贵金属 - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 4 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a downward trend in real interest rates, and the strengthening of gold's safe - haven property. Bearish factors included reduced safe - haven demand, capital flowing to risky assets, and technical - level sell - offs [7]. 3.2.5黑色板块 - **Iron Ore**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included increased molten - iron production, expected decline in overseas shipments, and improved macro sentiment. Bearish factors included rising port inventories, increased global shipments, weakening demand for five major steel products, and narrowing basis [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - A股 major indices rose significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.72%, and the ChiNext Index up 3.11%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded for three consecutive days, and over 3900 stocks rose. Non - bank finance and national defense and military industry sectors strengthened, while coal and petroleum and petrochemical sectors declined. - Overseas, the cease - fire agreement in the Middle East eased geopolitical conflicts. There are differences within the Fed regarding interest rate cuts, and the dollar - RMB exchange rate has weakened recently. - Domestically, economic fundamentals in May showed a decline in imports, exports, fixed - asset investment, and industrial added - value year - on - year. The real estate market is accelerating its decline, and only social retail sales increased. CPI and PPI data indicate future price pressures. Financial data shows that the M1 - M2 gap narrowed in May, social financing stock growth remained flat, and new RMB loans decreased year - on - year, suggesting insufficient real - economy financing demand. - The central bank and five other departments issued a document to promote consumer spending through financial means, with expanding domestic demand as the policy focus. - Overall, the domestic economic fundamentals are under pressure due to overseas tariff factors. Domestic demand recovery may support economic growth, the Fed may cut interest rates early, the RMB exchange - rate pressure is relieved, and the eased Middle East situation boosts market risk appetite. The strategy suggests light - position buying on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Quotes - **Contract Prices**: IF (2509) is at 3922.8 (+74.2), IH (2509) at 2722.6 (+42.6), IC (2509) at 5759.8 (+133.6), IM (2509) at 6119.6 (+131.0). Their corresponding secondary - main contracts also showed increases [2]. - **Contract Spreads**: IF - IH spread is 1210.4 (+21.8), IC - IF spread is 1899.2 (+45.0), etc. Some spreads increased while the IM - IC spread decreased by 3.0 [2]. - **Quarter - to - Month Spreads**: Most quarter - to - month spreads showed changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [2]. - **Net Positions of Top 20 Holders**: IF's net position is - 29,653.00 (- 415.0), IH's is - 12,784.00 (- 907.0), IC's is - 13,685.00 (+854.0), and IM's is - 34,131.00 (+1113.0) [2]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot prices of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all rose, and the basis of their corresponding futures contracts also increased [2]. Market Sentiment - **Trading Volume and Balance**: A - share trading volume reached 16,395.06 billion yuan (+1914.47 billion), margin trading balance was 18,220.06 billion yuan (+51.05 billion), and north - bound trading volume was 1605.61 billion yuan (+228.25 billion) [2]. - **Fund Flows and Policies**: Main - force funds increased by 22.96 billion yuan, MLF net injection was 3000 billion yuan, and reverse - repurchase operations increased by 3653.0 billion yuan [2]. - **Other Indicators**: The proportion of rising stocks was 72.29% (- 15.91%), Shibor was 1.371% (+0.001%), and option prices and implied volatilities mostly increased [2]. Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - The overall A - share strength index was 7.30 (- 0.90), the technical - aspect index was 7.20 (- 1.60), and the capital - aspect index was 7.40 (- 0.10) [2]. Industry News - Israel and Iran agreed to a full - scale cease - fire, and the Fed Chair Powell indicated a wait - and - see attitude on interest - rate adjustments but did not rule out early rate cuts [2]. - The central bank and five other departments issued a guidance on financial support for boosting and expanding consumption, setting up a 5000 - billion - yuan re - loan and promoting long - term capital entry into the capital market [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company with a target price of 5.2 CNY per share [2][8]. Core Views - The company's profitability is under pressure, and it is anticipated that demand will recover in the future [2][8]. - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.893 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 3.3% to 176 million CNY [2][4]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 456 million CNY, a 3.8% increase year-on-year, but net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 46.9% to 5 million CNY [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 1.893 billion CNY in 2024 to 2.353 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6.3% [4][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase significantly from 176 million CNY in 2024 to 445 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 26.5% [4][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.13 CNY in 2024 to 0.33 CNY in 2027 [4][9]. Product and Market Analysis - In 2024, the company generated revenue from various products: white card paper (1.154 billion CNY), cultural paper (474 million CNY), gypsum face paper (60 million CNY), and corrugated paper (163 million CNY) [2][8]. - The company’s sales volume for white card paper, cultural paper, gypsum face paper, and corrugated paper saw year-on-year increases of 3.5%, 16.4%, 40.2%, and a decrease of 2.8%, respectively [2][8]. - The overseas market showed strong growth, with revenue increasing by 83.8% year-on-year to 296 million CNY in 2024, while domestic revenue decreased by 7.8% to 1.555 billion CNY [2][8]. Profitability and Cost Management - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 9.6%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [2][8]. - The company maintained stable expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial expenses, resulting in a net profit margin of 0.9% for 2024 [2][8]. - In Q1 2025, the gross margin remained at 9.6%, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.7 percentage points [2][8]. Investment Outlook - The company is recognized as a leader in the white card paper industry, with a stable operation and promising overseas market expansion [2][8]. - The report anticipates that if domestic demand recovers, it could further enhance profit margins [2][8].

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In April 2025, new social financing (社融) reached 1.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2 trillion yuan, raising the social financing stock growth rate to 8.7%, the highest since March 2024[5] - The increase in social financing was partly due to a low base from the previous year, where April 2024 saw a decrease of 658 million yuan in new social financing[7] - Government bond issuance accelerated, with net financing of 4.85 trillion yuan from January to April 2025, and 976.2 billion yuan in April alone, a year-on-year increase of over 1 trillion yuan[7] Group 2: Credit and Loan Insights - In April 2025, new credit amounted to 280 billion yuan, a decrease of 450 billion yuan year-on-year, with corporate bill financing being the main support at 834.1 billion yuan[12] - The decline in credit performance in April is attributed to several factors, including local government debt replacement leading to loan repayments and external trade tensions affecting export financing activities[12] - Resident loans decreased by 521.6 billion yuan in April, indicating a need for improved leverage willingness among households[16] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - M2 growth rebounded to 8.0% in April, up 1 percentage point from March, primarily due to a low base effect from the previous year[21] - The short-term policy stance has been clarified in recent political meetings, indicating a gradual approach to policy adjustments, with a focus on real estate and domestic demand trends[21] - External uncertainties are rising, which may impact future economic data and financial metrics, prompting potential additional policy measures if conditions weaken[25]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve total operating revenue of 1.893 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders of 176 million in 2024, with year-on-year changes of +1% for revenue and -3% for net profit [2][4] - In Q4 2024, the company is projected to generate operating revenue of 496.3 million, with a significant decline in net profit attributable to shareholders, down 90% year-on-year [2][4] - For Q1 2025, the company anticipates operating revenue of 456.4 million, with net profit attributable to shareholders decreasing by 47% year-on-year [2][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total sales volume of 4.56 million tons, a 6% increase year-on-year, with an average gross profit per ton of 398 RMB, a decrease of approximately 69 RMB [9] - The revenue breakdown includes: - White cardboard revenue of 1.1542 billion, with a sales volume of 2.9 million tons, and an average price of 3987 RMB/ton [9] - Cultural paper revenue of 474.1 million, with a sales volume of 980,000 tons, and an average price of 4848 RMB/ton [9] - Boxboard revenue of 163 million, with a sales volume of 530,000 tons, and an average price of 3098 RMB/ton [9] - Gypsum face paper revenue of 59.5 million, with a sales volume of 160,000 tons, and an average price of 3654 RMB/ton [9] Future Outlook - The company expects continuous growth in production and sales, with demand recovery likely to drive paper prices and profitability upward [9] - The overseas sales revenue is projected to see significant growth, with export revenue accounting for 16% of total sales, effectively hedging against domestic cyclical risks [9] - The company plans to continue developing differentiated products and implementing digital transformation to enhance market responsiveness [9]

Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is gradually recovering, with structural highlights emerging, particularly in the liquor and consumer goods sectors [2][5][12] - Investment recommendations emphasize the importance of domestic demand recovery, suggesting a more optimistic outlook for investment opportunities in the food and beverage sector [12][13] Industry Overview Liquor Sector - Liquor companies are pragmatically lowering growth targets, focusing on healthy operations. Most companies have abandoned aggressive growth goals for 2024, instead aiming for stable operations [5][7] - The industry is entering a phase of inventory clearance, with expectations of gradual recovery in the second half of the year. Key players are advised to focus on channel health and payment quality [5][7] - Specific company insights include: - Moutai and Wuliangye are maintaining strong market positions, while other brands are adjusting strategies to manage inventory and pricing [7][8] - The overall growth target for the liquor industry has been adjusted to a range of 5% to 10% [7] Consumer Goods Sector - Traditional leaders in dairy, beer, and yeast are showing signs of recovery, while new business models are gaining traction [9][12] - Key insights from specific companies include: - Yili is expected to achieve revenue growth of 2.7% in 2025, with a focus on high-quality products [9][10] - Anqi Yeast is experiencing steady growth driven by overseas markets and cost advantages [10] - Modern Dairy anticipates double-digit growth in raw milk production, supported by improved operational efficiency [10] - The snack and beverage segments are highlighted as areas of potential growth, with recommendations for companies like Dongpeng and Salted Fish [12][13] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on leading liquor brands as they begin to show signs of bottoming out, with recommendations for Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu [12][13] - In the consumer goods sector, there is an emphasis on snacks and beverages, with recommendations for companies like Dongpeng and Salted Fish, as well as a focus on the recovery of the beer and dairy sectors [12][13]

Core Viewpoints - The impact of tariffs on PPI is significant, while improved consumer demand provides substantial support for core CPI [4][5][47] - International oil prices have declined, and weak demand for steel and coal has led to a drop in commodity prices, negatively affecting PPI [4][10] - The "old-for-new" policy has stimulated demand for certain goods, leading to a slight increase in core CPI despite the overall decline [5][48] Inflation Data Summary - On May 10, the National Bureau of Statistics released April inflation data: CPI year-on-year at -0.1%, previous value -0.1%, expected -0.2%; PPI year-on-year at -2.7%, previous value -2.5%, expected -2.8% [3][46] - April PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 2.7%, slightly better than market expectations [10][30] PPI Analysis - The decline in PPI is attributed to falling international oil prices, which have led to a decrease in domestic oil prices, negatively impacting sectors like oil extraction and processing [4][10] - The real estate sector's downturn and seasonal factors have contributed to reduced demand for steel and coal, further dragging down PPI [4][10] - The low capacity utilization in downstream industries, exacerbated by increased tariffs, has also constrained PPI recovery [13][47] CPI Analysis - Core CPI showed a limited decline, primarily due to the "old-for-new" policy, which has stimulated demand and led to price increases in certain consumer goods [5][48] - Food CPI improved by 1.2 percentage points year-on-year to -0.2%, driven by seasonal supply constraints and reduced imports [20][34] - Gold price increases have supported other goods and services prices, contributing positively to overall CPI [22][48] Service Sector Insights - The core service CPI increased by 0.44% month-on-month, slightly better than seasonal trends, driven by a rebound in travel demand [6][25][49] - Significant price increases were observed in travel-related services, such as airfare and vehicle rentals, reflecting improved consumer activity [25][49] Future Outlook - The impact of tariffs on PPI is expected to be greater than on CPI, with potential downward pressure on both indices in the second quarter [7][27] - However, policies aimed at boosting consumption and domestic demand may provide support for inflation recovery [7][27]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the recovery of domestic demand, suggesting a more optimistic outlook for investment opportunities in the food and beverage sector, with potential for a dual boost in fundamentals and valuations in the second half of the year [1] - The major consumption ETF has shown a year-to-date maximum drawdown of 5.57%, indicating some volatility, but it has also outperformed its benchmark with a one-year annualized excess return of 2.18% [2] - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the major consumption index is 19.84, which is considered low compared to historical levels, indicating potential undervaluation [2] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the major consumption index account for 67.16% of the index, highlighting the concentration of investment in a few key players [3] - The performance of individual stocks within the index shows mixed results, with notable increases in stocks like Hai Tian Wei Ye (3.06%) and declines in others like Dong Peng Beverage (-0.89%) [5] - The report indicates that the liquor industry is entering a bottoming phase, with expectations for recovery as companies manage inventory more effectively in the latter half of the year [1]