曾豪认为，近期市场波动的核心矛盾在外部流动性，虽然关于2026年美联储降息路径和幅度的预期仍有 分歧，但随着美联储新主席的确定，中长期美元流动性有望维持宽松环境，底层逻辑没有变化。往后 看，外部环境有望保持稳定，叠加国内两会召开在即，经济修复预期有望进一步增强。 在他看来，2026年可考虑沿四大方向进行布局。一是新兴产业扩张，既包括人工智能应用、半导体硬件 等已进入规模化应用前夜的领域，也需关注商业航天、量子科技、脑机接口、先进核能等未来产业与前 沿产业。二是资源品与传统产业升级，关注全球供需缺口与能源转型驱动的有色金属、化工资源品，以 及传统产业供需格局改善带来的盈利系统性提升机会。三是出海主线，包括工程机械、电力设备等具备 全球竞争力的高端制造领域。四是内需修复，重视经济复苏预期改善的节奏，对部分盈利修复路径逐步 清晰且具备股息保护的内需消费板块，也应加大关注。 （来源：经济参考报） 博时基金权益投资一部总经理曾豪近期表示，当前市场向下空间有限，春节后市场大概率有望开启春季 行情的下半场。全年来看，2026年美联储大概率会持续降息，国内科技产业趋势向上，PPI同比有望回 正，叠加人民币汇率升值预期，有望共 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the optimistic outlook of foreign investment banks towards China's economic transformation and market opportunities in 2026, with recommendations to overweight A-shares and Hong Kong stocks due to favorable valuations and potential for recovery [1][4]. Investment Outlook - Goldman Sachs suggests a high allocation to A-shares and Hong Kong stocks for 2026, while Morgan Stanley upgrades the rating of mainland China and Hong Kong stock markets to "overweight" [1]. - UBS believes that policy support, improved corporate earnings, and capital inflows could drive A-share valuations higher [1]. Market Valuation - The Hong Kong market is characterized as "value for money," with significant undervaluation compared to markets like the US, Japan, and India, providing a safety margin for long-term valuation recovery [2][5]. - The Hong Kong market has seen a valuation recovery, with a 20% to 30% increase in 2025, moving from a significantly undervalued state to a more reasonable valuation [4]. Investment Themes - Investment opportunities in Hong Kong for 2026 are expected to focus on technology growth and domestic demand recovery [2]. - The AI sector and high-end manufacturing are identified as key areas for profit growth, alongside consumer sectors benefiting from policy support and improved consumer sentiment [8]. Capital Inflows - A dual-driven pattern of "continued inflow of southbound funds and gradual return of foreign capital" is anticipated for Hong Kong stocks in 2026 [6]. - The core logic for foreign investment in Hong Kong stocks is based on "valuation recovery" and "industry trend growth," with a shift from underweight to benchmark allocation expected to continue [6]. Economic Recovery - The stabilization of the macroeconomic environment is crucial for market performance, with improvements in external conditions and domestic policies aimed at boosting internal demand [7]. - The focus on domestic demand is expected to enhance valuation recovery in related sectors, with potential for broader market growth if inflation remains moderate [7]. Sector Analysis - The semiconductor industry is in an upward cycle, but domestic companies face challenges compared to international leaders [12]. - The internet sector is experiencing structural changes, with a shift towards selecting companies with sustainable competitive advantages [12]. - High dividend assets in sectors like dining and real estate are seen as having valuation recovery potential, providing stable cash flow amid market volatility [12]. AI Sector Insights - The AI industry is viewed as having significant long-term potential, with current valuations resembling a "beer bubble" rather than a "soap bubble," indicating a solid foundation for growth despite short-term fluctuations [15]. - The focus for investment in AI is currently on foundational equipment, with a gradual approach to application sectors as the market matures [10][11].

Core Insights - The biopharmaceutical ETF (512290) rose over 1% on February 10, with a net inflow of over 500 million yuan in the past 20 days, driven by significant BD and technological advancements [1] Industry Summary - The 2026 JPM Healthcare Conference showcased numerous Chinese pharmaceutical companies presenting their latest research achievements and progress, alongside a surge in large BD deals and active collaborations with multinational corporations (MNCs) [1] - The development of brain-computer interfaces and AI applications is thriving, with consumer-oriented stocks expected to benefit from domestic demand recovery [1] - The industry faces several risks, including geopolitical risks overseas, potential product development failures, increased pricing pressure from expanded centralized procurement, intense competition leading to price declines, and significant rises in raw material costs [1] - The biopharmaceutical ETF (512290) tracks the CS Biomedicine Index (930726), which selects listed companies involved in biotechnology, pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and services from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets to reflect the overall performance of related securities [1]

Market Overview - In January 2026, the A-share market showed a growth style dominance with structural differentiation, where the STAR 50 and CSI 1000 indices rose over 10%[4] - The Hang Seng Index and other major indices saw gains exceeding 5%, while the ChiNext and Shanghai Composite Index increased by over 3%[4] Investment Themes - The trading focus in January continued to revolve around "growth stocks and cyclical stocks," driven by technological upgrades in AI, semiconductor equipment, and commercial aerospace sectors[4] - Geopolitical factors led to rising international precious metal prices, benefiting cyclical sectors like copper and aluminum, as well as strategic resources such as lithium and rare earths[4] February Market Outlook - February is expected to be a "window period" for market confidence, driven by high growth expectations in new economies and relatively abundant liquidity before the Spring Festival[4] - The market is likely to see accelerated rotation in sectors like technology and non-ferrous metals, with strong earnings reports becoming focal points[4] Key Stock Recommendations - Top stock picks for February include Zijin Mining (601899.SH) with a projected EPS growth from 1.21 in 2024 to 3.37 in 2026, reflecting a strong outlook due to rising copper prices[6] - Yara International (000893.SZ) is recommended due to expected high potassium fertilizer prices, with EPS forecasted to rise from 1.03 in 2024 to 2.93 in 2026[6] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected policy changes, commercialization outcomes falling short of expectations, and delays in product development and market entry[4]

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund, CITIC Securities Dividend Smart Selection Mixed A (016774), reported a profit of 744,600 yuan for Q4 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.0216 yuan, and a net value growth rate of 1.12% for the period [4]. Fund Performance - As of January 22, the fund's unit net value was 1.223 yuan, with a total fund size of 30.8486 million yuan [4][16]. - The fund manager, Wang Peng, oversees 8 funds, with the highest one-year return of 47.34% for CITIC Securities CSI 1000 Index Enhanced A, while CITIC Securities Dividend Smart Selection Mixed A had the lowest at 7.38% [4]. Market Outlook - The fund management anticipates a transition from "repair-type growth" to "high-quality growth" in the Chinese economy, with increasing internal momentum [5]. - Key sectors expected to drive growth include artificial intelligence, high-end manufacturing, biotechnology, and advanced materials, supported by policy and industry developments [5]. - Consumer-related sectors are projected to experience moderate recovery due to improving income expectations and ongoing policy support, favoring companies with strong brand power and stable cash flow [5]. Fund Metrics - As of January 22, the fund's performance metrics include a three-month return of -2.74%, a six-month return of -3.82%, a one-year return of 7.38%, and a three-year return of 19.12%, ranking it within the respective peer groups [5]. - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past three years is 0.6169, ranking 120 out of 383 comparable funds [10]. - The maximum drawdown over the past three years is 13.44%, with the largest quarterly drawdown occurring in Q3 2024 at 12.16% [12]. Investment Strategy - The fund maintained an average stock position of 89.82% over the past three years, with a peak of 93.32% at the end of Q1 2025 and a low of 67.38% at the end of 2022 [15]. - The top holdings of the fund include COFCO Sugar, Nanjing Bank, China Ping An, Agricultural Bank of China, Gree Electric Appliances, China Petroleum, China Construction Bank, Fuanna, Bank of Communications, and China Shenhua Energy [19].

Group 1: Industrial Production Trends - The industrial production shows a mixed trend, with a marginal decline in construction activity [1] - The blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.7% week-on-week and rose by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year to 90% [1][4] - Apparent steel consumption rose by 0.9% week-on-week and increased by 4.4 percentage points year-on-year to 2.2% [1] Group 2: Chemical and Consumption Chains - The chemical chain shows overall weak performance, with soda ash operating rate declining by 1.7% week-on-week and down 4.3 percentage points year-on-year to -2.4% [9] - PTA operating rate increased by 0.2% week-on-week but fell by 1.8 percentage points year-on-year to -8.4% [9] - In the downstream consumption chain, polyester filament operating rate increased by 0.3% week-on-week and rose by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year to 1.8% [9] Group 3: Construction Industry Insights - Cement demand shows marginal improvement, with grinding operating rate declining by 3.8% week-on-week and down 3.9 percentage points year-on-year to 4.7% [17] - Cement shipment rate decreased by 1.1% week-on-week but increased by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to -1.4% [17] - Cement inventory ratio continued to decline, down 1.7% week-on-week and up 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 0.5% [17] Group 4: Demand Tracking - The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 26.1% week-on-week and fell by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to -26% [34] - First-tier and second-tier cities showed improvement in transactions, with year-on-year increases of 1% and 7.6% respectively [34] - Port cargo throughput increased, with container throughput rising by 2.4% year-on-year to 9% [44] Group 5: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices showed divergence, with egg and vegetable prices declining by 0.8% and 2.8% respectively, while fruit prices increased by 0.8% [79] - The South China industrial product price index rose by 0.6% week-on-week, with the metal price index increasing by 1.9% [90]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the seasonal decline in production and the ongoing need for domestic demand recovery in the context of high-frequency economic data for the specified week [2] Group 1: Economic Trends - Production has shown a seasonal decline, indicating a typical pattern during this period [2] - Domestic demand remains in need of recovery, suggesting potential opportunities for growth in consumer spending and investment [2] Group 2: High-Frequency Data Insights - The high-frequency economic indicators reflect a mixed outlook, with some sectors showing resilience while others lag behind [2] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of monitoring these indicators closely to gauge the overall economic health and potential investment opportunities [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the outlook for the A-share market in 2026, emphasizing the importance of economic work and investment strategies as China enters a critical period of its "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends and Economic Outlook - A-share company profit growth is expected to show a "low first, high later" trend in 2026, influenced by the US-China trade dynamics and the upcoming US midterm elections [3][5]. - The international order's restructuring and China's industrial innovation are anticipated to support A-share performance, with a market trend of initial growth followed by stabilization [6][8]. - The nominal GDP growth in China is projected to reach 6.45% in 2026, significantly higher than in 2025, indicating a recovery in corporate earnings [21]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities and Sector Focus - Key investment themes include the global pricing power in manufacturing, the expansion of Chinese companies overseas, the continuation of the tech trend with AI, and the potential recovery in domestic demand [5][8][19]. - Analysts suggest focusing on sectors with clear growth trends, such as AI applications, machinery, innovative pharmaceuticals, and energy equipment [5][8][19]. - The A-share market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" pattern, with a focus on industries experiencing supply constraints and clear growth trends, such as AI and energy storage [11][25]. Group 3: Policy and Structural Changes - The article highlights the need for policies that support long-term market stability and the development of new industries, particularly in technology and innovation [6][17][24]. - The "anti-involution" policies are expected to improve competition in traditional industries and stimulate domestic demand, contributing to overall market recovery [15][17]. - The capital market is anticipated to transition from valuation-driven to profit-driven dynamics, with a focus on sectors that can benefit from both traditional and emerging growth drivers [15][19].

Core Viewpoint - The chief A-share strategist of CITIC Securities, Qiu Xiang, predicts that the profit growth rate of A-share companies will show a trend of low-to-high from 2026 onwards, influenced by the dynamics of the China-US relationship [1] Group 1: Market Phases - The market is expected to be divided into three phases based on the China-US trade agreement and the US midterm elections: 1. The first phase is from now until the trade agreement is finalized, where the market's upward slope is expected to slow down 2. The second phase is from the agreement's implementation to the end of the US midterm elections, during which A-shares may experience sustained growth in a stable external environment 3. The third phase follows the midterm elections, where external uncertainties may increase sharply, prompting investors to refocus on domestic issues [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities and Sector Allocation - Four major themes are highlighted for investment opportunities: 1. The manufacturing sector's competition for global pricing power, with a focus on industries such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and new energy, which can convert market share advantages into pricing power and profit margin increases 2. The globalization of Chinese enterprises, which significantly expands market capitalization and profit growth potential, with key industries including machinery, innovative pharmaceuticals, electric equipment, and military industry 3. The continuation of the technology trend, particularly in AI, which further expands commercial applications and enhances the competitive advantages of Chinese companies, focusing on sectors like semiconductors, computing power, edge hardware, and AI applications 4. The potential for unexpected recovery in domestic demand, where despite general industry conditions being average, there exists significant room for recovery and valuation elasticity in domestic demand-sensitive sectors [1]

Consumption - Domestic demand is recovering, with service consumption potential being significant, as evidenced by high visitor numbers at Shanghai Disneyland and ongoing winter tourism demand in Hainan[3] - Automotive sales show a slight decline, with retail and wholesale volumes at near-average levels for recent years[6] - Food and beverage prices are rising due to pre-holiday stocking, with agricultural product wholesale prices reaching recent highs[6] Investment - Real estate sales are showing marginal improvement, with new home transaction area declines narrowing from 33.7% to 23.4% year-on-year[18] - Infrastructure investment is supported by improved fiscal spending, although November's spending remains below last year's levels[18] - Land transaction area has seasonally increased, but the land premium rate has dropped to 1.8%, indicating ongoing price competition[18] Trade and Export - Port operations are showing marginal improvement, with an increase in the number of outbound vessels compared to the previous week[24] - Domestic export freight rates have risen by 0.6%, with Ningbo and Shanghai seeing increases of 3.2% and 3.1% respectively[24] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has dropped by 12.9% due to excess shipping capacity and seasonal factors affecting international trade[24] Production - Production rates are showing divergence across sectors, with high operating rates in formaldehyde and lithium iron phosphate, while polyester and lithium battery demand support production[26] - Steel and photovoltaic industries are experiencing mixed performance, with upstream and downstream sectors showing different trends[26] Prices and Inflation - Industrial product prices are declining, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing structural differentiation in price movements across categories[42] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) continues to decline, with coal prices dropping and Brent oil prices also decreasing, reflecting weak winter demand[42] Liquidity - The Renminbi continues to strengthen, with the exchange rate against the US dollar improving from 7.0554 to 7.0410[46] - The 10-year government bond yield has decreased by 0.9 basis points to 1.83%[47]