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【广发策略联合行业】出口链25年一季报前瞻
晨明的策略深度思考· 2025-03-27 10:15
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the cyclical nature of stock performance in the export chain, particularly highlighting the importance of earnings seasons for price movements and the need for companies to deliver on EPS expectations to drive stock prices upward [2][8][12]. Export Chain Performance - The stock performance of export chain companies tends to rise during earnings seasons, with a focus on EPS growth rather than valuation increases [2][8]. - As of March 2024, many companies in the export chain have seen their PE ratios fall to a favorable range of 10-15X, indicating potential for upward movement as earnings reports approach [11][12]. - Key sectors such as transformers, wind power equipment, motorcycles, air conditioners, injection molding machines, buses, and hand tools/electric tools have shown over 10% growth in exports during January-February 2024 [12][15]. Machinery Sector - The machinery sector is characterized by cyclical demand, with overseas durable goods and industrial products showing strong competitive advantages [19][20]. - Companies like Juxing Technology and Quanfeng Holdings are recommended for their strong positions in overseas durable goods, while SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and others are highlighted for their industrial products [21][22]. Home Appliances - The home appliance sector is experiencing a shift due to U.S. tariffs, which have accelerated the competitive landscape, benefiting leading companies with overseas production capabilities [30][34]. - Companies such as Xinbao, Ousheng Electric, and Dechang are recommended for their high export ratios to the U.S. and strong growth prospects [35][38]. Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector is expected to face challenges in Q1 2025, with a decline in export amounts due to increased tariffs from the U.S. [39][44]. - However, many companies have global production layouts that help mitigate the impact of trade tensions, with some benefiting from large customer orders [44][45]. Military Industry - The military industry is poised for growth due to global demand for military equipment and the ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in Europe [47][50]. - Companies like Guorui Technology and Aerospace South Lake are highlighted for their potential in military trade, with a focus on global expansion opportunities [48][56].