证券研究报告 | 2026年02月26日 2026年02月27日 策略月报 一页纸精读行业比较数据：2 月 投资链：2 月以来有色价格全面上升。25 年 12 月固定资产投资累计同比增 速下降至-3.80%，房地产开发投资累计同比降幅下降至-17.20%，制造业固 定资产投资累计同比增速下降至 0.60%，基础设施建设投资累计同比增速下 降至-1.48%。26 年 2 月以来铜、铝、锌、铅、锡、镍、黄金、白银价格上升； 26 年 2 月动力煤价格持平于 685 元/吨，焦煤价格持平；26 年 2 月普通水泥 平均价格下降；26 年 2 月以来钢材价格下降；26 年 2 月以来轻质纯碱价格 下降；26 年 1 月大型、轻型客车销量当月同比增速下降，中型客车当月同比 增速上升。 消费链：1 月汽车销量同比增速小幅回升。2025 年 12 月社消额当月名义同 比增速回落至 0.90%，累计名义同比增速回落 3.70%；25 年 12 月消费者信心 指数下降至 89.50；2025 年 12 月商品房销售面积累计同比增速降幅扩大， 增速下降至-9.53%；2026 年 1 月汽车销量当月同比增速上升至-3.18%；2 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.26 [Table_Industry] 机械行业 出口链月度跟踪：主要航线海运费同比持续下 滑，2 月美国住房市场指数同比-14.29% | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 肖群稀(分析师) | 0755-23976830 | xiaoqunxi@gtht.com | S0880522120001 | | 赵玥炜(分析师) | 021-23185630 | zhaoyuewei@gtht.com | S0880525040040 | | 丁嘉一(分析师) | 021-23187266 | dingjiayi@gtht.com | S0880525080009 | 本报告导读： 美元兑人民币小幅贬值，主要航线海运费同比继续下滑；美国餐饮 RPI环比下降， 美国住房市场指数环比承压。 投资要点： [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Table_Report] 相关报告 机械行业《特斯拉宣布重启光伏组件生产，三年 年化目标 100GW》2026.02.25 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.26 [Table_Industry] 机械行业 出口链月度跟踪：主要航线海运费同比持续下 滑，2 月美国住房市场指数同比-14.29% | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 肖群稀(分析师) | 0755-23976830 | xiaoqunxi@gtht.com | S0880522120001 | | 赵玥炜(分析师) | 021-23185630 | zhaoyuewei@gtht.com | S0880525040040 | | 丁嘉一(分析师) | 021-23187266 | dingjiayi@gtht.com | S0880525080009 | 本报告导读： 美元兑人民币小幅贬值，主要航线海运费同比继续下滑；美国餐饮 RPI环比下降， 美国住房市场指数环比承压。 投资要点： [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Table_Report] 相关报告 机械行业《特斯拉宣布重启光伏组件生产，三年 年化目标 100GW》2026.02.25 ...

华泰证券认为，主题投资和景气策略仍优于高股息，主题投资关注出口链、服务型消费、机器人应 用等，景气投资关注通信设备、小金属、稀有金属、电池、建材等。 国盛证券表示，有四大变量或成影响节后市场走势的关键。一是美国关税政策仍存不确定性，意味 着贸易摩擦将长期化，短期内将对市场风险偏好形成压制，但出口链企业的韧性已经显现；二是国内人 工智能（AI）大模型与机器人借春晚实现全民出圈，京东等平台销量数据更是提供了业绩验证，上周 五港股相关板块大涨，A股智能机器人、算力设备、AI应用等板块有望迎来资金追捧；三是以人民币计 价资产的吸引力将提升，尤其是权益市场，外资净流入中国资产已成为大趋势；四是地缘政治不确定性 加剧，推升全球避险情绪。 刚刚结束的马年春节假期可谓"马力十足"。交通运输部发布的数据显示，2026年春节前20天，全社 会跨区域人员流动量超50亿人次，创下了新的历史纪录。同时，国家移民管理局预计今年春节假期全国 口岸日均出入境人员同比增长14.1%，日均超205万人次，比2023年春节增长近5倍。此外，消费也迎来 了"开门红"。今年春节首批以旧换新补贴提前下达，叠加地方政府的消费补贴资金共同为假期消费注入 动 ...

出口链：关税变化利于终端销售，海外产能依然具有超额优势 对等&芬太尼关税无效最高法院宣布Trump基于《 查找图书 》（IEEPA）的全球对等关税与芬太尼关税无效。 Trump宣布2月24日执行150天税率为10%的商品临时进口关税。 政策变动对 出口链：关税变化利于终端销售，海外产能依然具有超额优势 对等&芬太尼关税无效最高法院宣布Trump基于《 查找图书 》（IEEPA）的全球对等关税与芬太尼关税无效。 Trump宣布2月24日执行150天税率为10%的商品临时进口关税。 跨境电商成本将有直接优化轻工中大件跨境电商供应链东南亚转移比例多在50%-80%之间，本次国内关税降低 10%将直接降低龙头成本。 政策变动对不同品类关税影响具差异具体看轻工家居品类东南亚关税维持25%，国内将从此前60%下降至50%，轻 工非家居品类东南亚关税将从20%下降至10%，国内将从20%+18年301关税（7.5%-25%不等），变为10%+301关 税。 终端价格利好&竞争格局稳定无论家居或非家居品类关税整体看均有所下降，对应终端价格有望下调，利于出口 需求。从竞争维度看，家居品类国内与东南亚关税差距小幅收窄（10%）， ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the light industry export chain as "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The growth potential of companies is derived from the alignment of industry characteristics and their own competitive advantages [3] - The report emphasizes that leading companies in niche markets can achieve differentiation and higher profitability due to limited competition and market capacity [6][7] - The report identifies key investment opportunities in companies such as Jiangxin Home, Gongchuang Lawn, Zhongxin Co., Gujia Home, Yingke Medical, Songlin Technology, Jianlin Home, Zhejiang Natural, and Yiyi Co. [4] Summary by Sections 1. Company Growth Sources: Industry Characteristics and Competitive Matching - Niche market leaders often achieve differentiation and alpha due to limited competition and high growth potential, with leading companies maintaining a market share of over 20% and net profit margins of 15%-20% [6][7] - Zhongxin Co. benefits from cost advantages through equipment optimization and raw material selection, achieving significant savings in fixed asset investment compared to peers [9] - Gongchuang Lawn excels in R&D innovation and comprehensive production efficiency, maintaining superior unit profit margins despite market price fluctuations [18][19] 2. Overseas Capacity Migration: Accelerated Diversification - The trend of sourcing from the U.S. is evident, with major retailers like Home Depot and Lowe's increasing their domestic procurement [4] - The report notes that U.S. tariffs and geopolitical factors are accelerating the shift of production capacity to North America, particularly in response to the 2025 tariff changes [4] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that leading companies in the export chain can achieve excess profits through precise positioning in niche markets, cost control, and differentiated product and channel operations [4] - The report highlights the importance of innovation and agile market response in driving product iterations, particularly for Jiangxin Home, which has rapidly developed new features in its product lines [27][30]

李含稚 华福证券轻纺分析师: 各位投资者大家上午好，我是华孚轻纺的李涵智，欢迎大家参加我们 2026 年春季策略会 的上市公司交流。本场次是共创草坪的线上交流。然后我们很荣幸的邀请到了公司的副总 裁、董事会秘书以及财务总监江总来参加本场次的交流。然后共创草坪作为这个全球人造 草坪的龙头公司，这几年的一个基本面的表现一直都是一个比较亮眼的水平，而且历史业 绩的这个兑现程度也是比较好的，是属于咱们出口链当中比较稀缺的优质标的。那么接下 来要不我们先有请江总帮我们回顾一下，就是刚过去的四季度，在这个全球三个主要市场 的一个大致的表现。 以及近期咱们一些订单的情况大概是怎么样的？江总，您好。 共创草坪副总裁、董事会秘书、财务总监江总: 各位投资人大家上午好。还是非常感谢华福证券组织的这场线上交流活动，也感谢各位投 资人对这个共创草坪的持续的关注。那么应该是从 Q4 以来的话，总体来讲我们的订单还 是不错的。Q4 的这个订单应该有这个 2020 以上的这样的，20 以上的这样的一个增长。 那么到了这个今年 1 月份，情况应该还是延续了去年这个，Q4 这样的一个订单的增幅。 也就是说我们的现在整个从需求端来看的话，我们认 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [6] Core Insights - The report highlights a differentiated demand structure within the industry, with specific focus on export-oriented consumer enterprises that possess global manufacturing layouts, brand output capabilities, and channel integration advantages [4][7] - It emphasizes the importance of companies with diversified capacity allocation, stable customer loyalty, and pricing power to achieve sustained growth amid changing external environments and policy negotiations [7] - The report recommends specific companies such as Juxing Technology, Yindu Co., Taotao Vehicle, Honghua Digital Technology, and Jack Co. as key investment targets, while also mentioning Haoyang Co. as a related stock [7][18] Summary by Relevant Sections Cost Tracking - The report notes a slight depreciation of the USD against the RMB, with the exchange rate at 6.95 on January 30, 2026, reflecting a 1.30% increase from January 23, 2026 [7] - Shipping costs have decreased year-on-year across various routes, with the overall container freight index (CCFI) at 1175.59, down 16.92% year-on-year and 2.74% month-on-month [7] Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - The report provides insights into the U.S. restaurant industry, indicating a decrease in the Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) to 99.2 in November 2025, down 0.4% from October 2025 [7] - The U.S. housing market index showed a year-on-year decline of 21.28% in January 2026, with a current index of 37, reflecting a 5.13% month-on-month decrease [7] - The golf cart industry experienced a year-on-year export increase of 7.66% in December 2025, with an export value of $0.43 billion for the month and a total of $3.63 billion for the year [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the inventory cycles in the U.S. furniture market, highlighting the dynamics between retailers and wholesalers, and the implications for demand and supply in the furniture industry [1][2]. Group 1: Inventory Cycle Analysis - Retailers are in a passive destocking phase from April 2025 to July 2025, as sales growth outpaces inventory growth, leading to an increase in actual inventory levels [1]. - Wholesalers are in an active restocking phase from October 2024 to August 2025, with inventory growth exceeding revenue growth, indicating a significant increase in actual inventory levels [1]. - By September 2025, wholesalers will transition to a passive destocking phase as revenue growth surpasses inventory growth, despite an increase in actual inventory amounts [1]. Group 2: Brand and Channel Inventory Performance - Furniture brands are experiencing historically low inventory-to-sales ratios, aligning with the trend of retailers reducing inventory since May 2023 [2]. - Home Depot's inventory-to-sales ratio has returned to historical norms, indicating a potential for further restocking, although demand remains constrained [2]. - The overall inventory levels of furniture and building material channel merchants are higher than those of brand merchants, reflecting the trend of wholesalers restocking more than destocking since September 2024 [2]. Group 3: Demand Improvement Pathways - The recovery in the real estate sector, potentially aided by continued interest rate cuts, is expected to enhance retail sales and initiate restocking among retailers [2]. - A low inventory-to-sales ratio suggests that there is room for replenishment, which could lead to an increase in furniture import values and a rebound in midstream manufacturing orders [2].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "positive," indicating an expected overall return exceeding 5% above the CSI 300 index in the next six months [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant growth trend in the electronic cigarette sector, with an expected increase of 28% in export value by December 2025. Additionally, the corrugated box category is projected to grow by 12% [1][2]. - The paper industry shows a mixed performance, with corrugated boxes achieving double-digit growth (+12%), while the demand for bleached paper and paperboard has slightly declined (-7%). The performance of pulp and paper products remains stable with a minor decrease of -1% [2][6]. - The home furnishings sector is experiencing a notable decline, particularly in spring mattresses, which are under short-term pressure with a decrease of -3%. Other categories such as bathroom fixtures, office furniture, sofas, and PVC flooring are facing significant demand challenges, with declines ranging from -14% to -28% [2][6]. - The report also notes that other categories, including thermal cups and plastic tableware, are experiencing slight declines of -14% and -9%, respectively, while electronic cigarettes continue to show robust growth [2][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Paper Industry - Corrugated boxes are expected to see a growth of +12% - Bleached paper and paperboard are facing a decline of -7% - Pulp and paper products are stable with a decrease of -1% [2][6] Home Furnishings - Spring mattresses are under pressure with a decline of -3% - Significant declines in demand for bathroom fixtures (-28%), office furniture (-18%), sofas (-15%), and PVC flooring (-14%) [2][6] Other Categories - Electronic cigarettes are projected to grow by +28% - Thermal cups and plastic tableware are experiencing declines of -14% and -9% respectively [2][6]