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激浊扬清，周观军工 第157期： 全面拥抱军贸、军转民占优赛道 长江证券研究所军工研究小组 2026-02-24 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 分析师 王贺嘉 分析师 李麟君 SAC执业证书编号：S0490520110004 SAC执业证书编号：S0490525080002 SFC执业证书编号：BUX462 分析师及联系人 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • 评级 看好 维持 %% %% % research.95579.com 3 01 燃气轮机或为AIDC供电的最优解， 国内外需求共振带动长周期高景气 %% %% research.95579.com 2 01 燃气轮机或为AIDC供电的最优解， 国内外需求共振带动长周期高景气 02 我国复用火箭技术迈出实质性一步， 商业航天基建或进入低成本化时代 03 五部门联合发文加强信通能力建设， 低空经济基础设施建设有望再提速 04 中国高新装备密集亮相海外防务展， 坚定看好中国装备海外市场的拓展 目 录 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 4 01 人工智能导致用电量高增，燃气轮机或成为解决瓶颈的有效 ...

2026年A股年度策略报告 2026年2月3日 AI 兴，再通胀，驭慢牛 2026年A股年度策略报告 庞庞庞 庞庞庞 SAC 庞庞庞庞庞S0640515120001 庞庞庞庞庞010-59562478 庞庞庞dongzy@avicsec .com 2 ➢ 全球政经格局来看 ，2025 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞 ➢ 从大类资产中长期角度看 ，2025年进一步确认了全球两大趋势 ，即逆全球化与 AI科技革命，未来或将至少持续 5-10年。 美元或已进入长期贬值周期 ，全球商品有望进入新一轮 "超级周期"，黄金、铜以及部分小金属等资源品价格或将持 续上涨。 ➢ 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞A 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞A 股有望步入长 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the mining equipment and process automation industries, highlighting trends in capital expenditure and technological advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) [1][2]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Mining Equipment Industry**: - Global mining capital expenditure is on the rise, driven by increasing metal prices, which benefits the mining equipment sector [1]. - Chinese mining companies expanding overseas present investment opportunities in equipment, with both short-term and long-term value [1][15]. - **Process Automation and AI**: - Rapid development of generative AI in process industries is benefiting companies like Zhongkong Technology, which aims for 200 million RMB in revenue from AI-related initiatives by 2026 [1][7]. - Major automation firms like Emerson, Siemens, and Honeywell are making significant strategic adjustments and innovations in AI, with Emerson's software-related revenue reaching 1.2 billion USD in 2025 [5]. - **Metal Prices**: - Metal prices are driven by multiple factors, including AI demand, energy transition, and supply constraints. Notably, copper prices are influenced by AI and new energy demands, while tungsten prices are rising due to supply tightening in China [1][14]. - The overall trend for metal prices is upward, supported by inflation and declining resource reserves [13]. Additional Important Content - **Market Dynamics**: - The rigid mining truck market is dominated by Caterpillar and Komatsu, which hold 80% market share, benefiting from substantial aftermarket revenues [1][11]. - The electric vehicle adoption rate for wide-body trucks is expected to exceed 50% by 2026, with Chinese companies expanding into overseas markets [12]. - **Company Performance**: - Nepe Mining Machinery has seen significant growth in new orders, particularly overseas, with a 60% increase in international orders [1][20]. - Oke Yi is benefiting from rising tungsten prices and supply-side constraints, with a projected 150% increase in tungsten powder prices from 2025 to 2026 [4][20]. - **Investment Recommendations**: - Investors are advised to focus on companies with strong exposure to rising metal prices, high overseas market shares, and those in the consumables sector, which show greater elasticity compared to equipment manufacturers [19]. - **Market Characteristics**: - A-share listed companies in the mining equipment sector typically have a high revenue share from coal mining, around 70%-80% [17]. - The export of mining machinery from China significantly exceeds imports, indicating a strong domestic manufacturing capability [18]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and trends discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the mining equipment and process automation industries, along with investment opportunities and market dynamics.

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing prosperity in the commercial aerospace and military sectors, highlighting opportunities in overseas markets and the importance of technological advancements in the industry [2][3] Group 1: Industry Overview - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing upward momentum, driven by SpaceX's advancements in reusable rocket technology, which could reduce space access costs by 100 times [13] - The military aviation sector is expected to benefit from increased demand for large aircraft and military trade, with significant growth anticipated in 2026 [14] - The report identifies a focus on supply chain reforms and the integration of AI technologies as key trends shaping the future of the defense and aerospace industries [15] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends companies that align with the "S-curve" evolution, focusing on supply chain reforms and automation, including firms like航发动力 (Aero Engine Corporation) and 中航沈飞 (AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation) [15] - Companies positioned for expansion in military trade and civil aviation, such as 国睿科技 (Guorui Technology) and 中国动力 (China Power), are highlighted for their growth potential [15] - Emerging industries like commercial aerospace, AI, and quantum computing are also recommended, with firms like 睿创微纳 (Ruichuang Micro-Nano) and 菲利华 (Feilihua) noted for their innovative capabilities [15] Group 3: Company Valuations and Financial Analysis - 航发动力 (Aero Engine Corporation) is projected to have a 2025E EPS of 0.22 CNY, with a PE ratio of 216.82 for 2025 [6] - 中航高科 (AVIC High-tech) is expected to achieve a 2025E EPS of 0.90 CNY, with a PE ratio of 29.16 for 2025 [6] - The report provides detailed financial metrics for various companies, indicating growth in EPS and improvements in PE ratios across the sector, reflecting a positive outlook for the defense and aerospace industries [6]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the volatility in the Chinese market is expected to drive short-term thematic growth while also indicating a long-term style shift [2][3] - The report notes that the recent cooling of inflation in the U.S. provides a moderate but not overwhelming space for the Federal Reserve's policy adjustments [3][8] - It emphasizes the potential for the Chinese market to undergo a significant long-term style shift during the release of overseas risks, alongside a continued substantial appreciation of the Renminbi [3][4] Group 2 - The semiconductor sector is viewed positively in the short term, with a specific focus on the storage segment due to emerging supply-demand contradictions [3][27] - Long-term investment opportunities are identified in insurance, central state-owned enterprise dividends, anti-involution industries, Chinese concept internet companies, and military trade [3][4] - The report indicates that the technology sector has shown significant gains, while financial real estate and consumer sectors have experienced deeper declines [19][24] Group 3 - The report mentions that the A-share market has seen a notable performance from the Sci-Tech 50 index, which rose by 2.58%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.45% [12][19] - It points out that the external capital index positions have weakened, with net short positions expanding [35][36] - Upcoming focus will be on U.S. PCE inflation data and Chinese economic indicators [38]

Market Performance - The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened slightly higher on January 13, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a maximum increase of 0.35% and the Shenzhen Component Index a maximum of 0.64% before experiencing a downward trend, ultimately closing lower [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4138.76 points, down 0.64%, with a trading volume of approximately 148.16 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14169.40 points, down 1.37%, with a trading volume of approximately 216.95 billion yuan; the ChiNext Index closed at 3321.89 points, down 1.96%, with a trading volume of approximately 108.69 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The healthcare and pharmaceutical sectors showed strong performance, with significant increases in various sub-sectors such as medical services, CRO concepts, immunotherapy, AI healthcare concepts, weight loss drugs, innovative drugs, vitamins, and hepatitis concepts [1] - Other sectors that saw notable gains included precious metals, insurance, oil, and banking, while military trade concepts experienced significant declines, particularly in aerospace, commercial space, satellite navigation, and military information technology [1] Investment Insights - According to institutional views, the market is expected to continue its upward trend despite recent fluctuations, with a focus on sectors like semiconductors, consumer electronics, artificial intelligence, robotics, and commercial aerospace for mid-to-long-term investment opportunities [2] - In the AI healthcare sector, companies with practical applications and clear commercialization paths are anticipated to achieve rapid expansion and improved profitability as AI healthcare enters a commercialization acceleration phase [2] Policy Developments - The Ministry of Civil Affairs and other departments issued measures to promote the development of the elderly care service industry, emphasizing the integration of technology in elderly care services, including the use of big data, cloud computing, and AI for health monitoring and personalized services [4] - The measures encourage the development of elderly care robots to meet the daily care and emotional support needs of the elderly, promoting cross-industry collaboration and technological integration [4] Medical Supplies Procurement - The sixth batch of national organized high-value medical consumables procurement opened for bidding, including drug-coated balloons and urological intervention supplies, which are used in vascular stenosis and urinary system stone surgeries [7] - Previous procurement batches have included a wide range of medical supplies across various treatment fields, indicating a comprehensive approach to managing high-value medical consumables [7]

Group 1 - The core conclusion of the report emphasizes the stable growth foundation of the defense industry, driven by continuous increases in national defense spending, with a budget of 1.78 trillion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.15% [32][38] - The report highlights the importance of the military aircraft industry chain as the main growth logic, with a focus on the generational upgrade of advanced fighter jets and breakthroughs in domestic aero-engine technology [84] - The report suggests that the military-civilian integration strategy will provide long-term alpha for military enterprises, transitioning from revenue expansion to high-quality development [82][84] Group 2 - The military industry outperformed the broader market, with the CITIC Military Industry Index yielding 16.6% as of November 30, 2025, surpassing the CSI 300 by 1.5 percentage points but lagging behind the ChiNext by 26% [11][15] - The report indicates that the military industry is currently ranked 16th out of 30 in terms of performance among CITIC's primary industry indices [15] - The report notes that the military industry’s valuation is at a high level, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 99.27, placing it in the 80th percentile historically over the past decade [21] Group 3 - The report identifies key areas of focus within the military sector, including infrared technology, laser weapons, and military trade, suggesting specific companies for investment [84] - The report discusses the increasing global military trade, particularly in aircraft, which is projected to account for 43.62% of the military trade market in 2024, with missiles and artillery also showing significant growth [79] - The report emphasizes the potential of laser weapons in counter-drone applications, highlighting their advantages such as high precision and low cost [69][70]

15日早盘，沪指盘中窄幅震荡，创业板指、科创50指数等走势疲弱。 截至午间收盘，沪指跌0.11%报3884.93点，上证50指数涨0.26%，深证成指跌0.71%，创业板指、科创50 指数均跌超1%，沪深北三市合计成交11985亿元。 盘面上看，保险板块强势拉升，食品饮料、零售、酿酒、钢铁、煤炭等板块上扬，商业航天、军贸概念 等活跃；半导体、传媒、医药等板块疲弱。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 中信建投证券表示，从9月初至12月初，AH两地市场经历了较长时间的调整，投资者情绪趋于谨慎，而 近期，多项关键事件与数据相继公布，整体基调符合或略好于市场预期。牛市底层逻辑仍在，主要由结 构性行情和资本市场改革政策推动。目前市场已经基本完成调整，叠加基金排名基本落地，跨年有望迎 来新一波行情。中期行业配置方面，重点关注具有一定景气催化的有色金属和AI算力，主题上以商业 航天为主，可控核聚变和人形机器人为辅；港股也具有投资机会，潜在热点板块主要有互联网巨头、创 新药。 ...

2025 年 12 月 07 日 策 略 研 究 策 略 定 期 报 弱美元降息或触发风险，中国供给定价相对稳健 ——周观点 投资要点： 近期观点 1、 美国中短期信用宽松，但中长期阻力越来越大。 告 2、 美国若持续宽信用，则海外通胀压力增加，中国价格复苏或 将加速，中国市场偏向大盘价值风格。 3、 AI 泡沫破灭是大概率事件，关注弱美元降息触发风险。 团队成员 分析师： 李浩(S0210524050003) lh30530@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 李刘魁(S0210524050006) llk30550@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 4、 交易层面，风险暴露前控制仓位，交易新老能源。 5、 长期看好保险，反内卷行业，中概互联网，军贸。 1、顶层设计下的资本市场系统性改革宣言及投资 机会分析——评吴清主席文章《提高资本市场制 度的包容性适应性》——2025.12.05 2、"十五五"资本市场改革战略蓝图 —— 2025.12.05 3、降息预期主导市场情绪——2025.12.01 风险提示 全球制造业复苏受阻；中美关系改善不及预期；美国地产市场不 健康 证 券 研 究 报 告 华福证券 诚信专 ...