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家得宝(HD.N)2025年一季度业绩点评:可比销售额同比-0.3%,HMI和营建许可等高频数据疲软
Soochow Securities· 2025-05-22 13:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Home Depot (HD.N) is maintained at "Neutral" [6]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with comparable sales down 0.3% year-over-year. Revenue increased by 9.4% to $39.86 billion, primarily due to the acquisition of SRS. However, net profit decreased by 4.6% to $3.43 billion, and EPS fell by 5.0% to $3.45 per share. The performance reflects ongoing pressures from a high-interest-rate environment and uncertainty in the economic landscape [6]. - Home Depot's operational data showed a year-over-year improvement in Q1 2025, with customer transactions increasing by 2.1% to 394.8 million and average transaction value rising slightly to $90.71 [6]. - The housing market index (HMI) and building permit data indicate a generally weak industry sentiment, with the HMI dropping to 34 in May 2025, a decrease of 6 points month-over-month. Additionally, building permits were down 3% year-over-year [6]. - The company maintains guidance for a 1% increase in comparable sales for 2025, with plans to open approximately 13 new stores and an expected diluted EPS decline of 3% [6]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected to grow by 2.5%, 2.2%, and 4.8%, reaching $163.50 billion, $167.10 billion, and $175.15 billion, respectively. Net profit is expected to decline by 3.5% in 2025, followed by growth of 4.0% and 4.3% in the subsequent years [6]. - The target price for Home Depot is set at $371.89, based on absolute valuation methods, with a corresponding PE ratio of 25.9x for the 2025 forecast EPS [6]. Financial Summary - Revenue (in million USD): - 2024A: 159,514 - 2025E: 163,502 - 2026E: 167,099 - 2027E: 175,153 - Net Profit (in million USD): - 2024A: 14,806 - 2025E: 14,284 - 2026E: 14,855 - 2027E: 15,500 - EPS (in USD): - 2024A: 14.90 - 2025E: 14.37 - 2026E: 14.95 - 2027E: 15.59 - PE Ratios: - 2024A: 24.89 - 2025E: 25.80 - 2026E: 24.81 - 2027E: 23.78 [6][12].