证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 20 日 香港交易所（00388.HK） 交投热烈带动业绩创半年度历史新高 总量研究/非银行金融 港交所公布 25 年中报：25H1 营业总收入为 141 亿港元，同比+33%；归母净 利润为 85 亿港元，同比+39%；EBITDA 为 109 亿港元，同比+43%。 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值：515.00 港元 当前股价：441.2 港元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 1268 | | --- | --- | | 香港股（百万股） | 1268 | | 总市值（十亿港元） | 559.4 | | 香港股市值（十亿港元） | 559.4 | | 每股净资产（港元） | 41.0 | | ROE（TTM） | 25.1 | | 资产负债率 | 86.2% | | 主要股东 | JPMorgan Chase & | | | Co. | | 主要股东持股比例 | 6.8756% | 股价表现 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 2 29 95 相对表现 0 19 52 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 A ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The company's H1 2025 performance shows significant pressure, with revenue and net profit declining by 20.1% and 24.6% year-on-year, respectively. The Q2 results reflect a substantial impact from the "ban on alcohol" policy in Anhui, leading to a near halving of demand [1][6]. - The company has chosen to limit shipments to accurately reflect market conditions and maintain healthy channel relationships. There is an expectation for demand recovery in Q3, contingent on the implementation of policies [1][6]. - Due to external demand pressures, the earnings forecast has been revised downwards, with expected EPS for 2025-2027 at 1.7, 1.8, and 1.9 yuan, respectively, corresponding to a 20x PE for 2025 [1][6]. Financial Data and Valuation - For H1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 2.53 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 720 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 20.1% and 24.6% respectively [1][6]. - The company's revenue for Q2 2025 was 721 million yuan, down 48.5% year-on-year, with net profit dropping 70.9% [6][7]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 20.9 billion yuan, with a current share price of 35.01 yuan and a PB ratio of 2.0 for 2025 [3][14]. Performance Analysis - The report indicates a significant decline in high-end liquor sales, with Q2 2025 revenue from high-end liquor at 660 million yuan, down 49.6% year-on-year. Mid-range and low-end liquor saw smaller declines of 7.7% and 7.5%, respectively [6][7]. - The company's gross margin for H1 2025 was 73.1%, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points year-on-year, with high-end liquor gross margin at 75.0% [6][7]. - The company has reduced promotional and advertising expenditures, leading to a decline in sales and management expense ratios [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights that Jerry Co., Ltd. has experienced significant revenue and profit growth in the first half of 2025, driven by concentrated orders and strong performance in overseas and natural gas businesses [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 6.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 39.21% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.241 billion, up 14.04% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.231 billion, reflecting a growth of 33.9% [1]. - The high-end equipment manufacturing business generated revenue of 4.224 billion, growing 22.42% year-on-year, although the gross margin slightly declined by 5.25% [2]. Business Segments - The natural gas business saw a remarkable revenue increase of 112.69%, with a gross margin improvement of 5.61%, contributing to an 88.14% revenue growth in oil and gas engineering and technical services [2]. - The overall gross margin of the company decreased by 3.46% due to the lower margin in oil and gas engineering [2]. - The company executed cash collection measures, resulting in a significant year-on-year increase of 196.36% in operating cash flow net [2]. Order Growth and Quality - New orders signed during the reporting period amounted to 9.881 billion, a year-on-year increase of 37.65%, with existing orders at 12.386 billion, up 34.76% [2]. - The natural gas segment's new orders grew by 43.28%, outpacing the overall order growth rate [2]. - The quality of overseas orders improved, contributing to a steady increase in overseas business gross margins [2]. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company's performance exceeded expectations, with the natural gas business driving over 88% growth in oil and gas engineering [3]. - Forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 3.021 billion, 3.463 billion, and 4.149 billion, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15.0, 13.1, and 10.9 [3]. - The company is considered undervalued compared to peers such as CNOOC Engineering, Petrochemical Machinery, and China Oilfield Services, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]. Analyst Ratings - In the last 90 days, 13 institutions provided ratings for the stock, with 11 recommending "buy" and 2 recommending "hold" [4]. - The average target price from institutions over the past 90 days is 50.02 [4].

Group 1 - The article expresses a beneficial long position in the shares of NHYDY, indicating a positive outlook on the company's stock performance [1] - The author emphasizes the importance of conducting due diligence and research prior to any investment, highlighting the risks associated with short-term trading and options trading [2] - The article clarifies that past performance is not indicative of future results, and no specific investment recommendations are provided [3]

Core Viewpoint - Company SharkNinja is expanding its distribution in Southeast Asia, achieving significant revenue growth in the Asia-Pacific region, while facing challenges in its Chinese market segment [1][2][3] Group 1: Revenue and Profit Performance - In 2024, SharkNinja achieved a revenue of $1.59 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12%, but net profit dropped to $0.09 million, a decline of 94% [1] - The Asia-Pacific segment generated a total revenue of $340 million in 2024, while the Joyoung segment contributed $1.02 billion [2] - The Asia-Pacific division saw strong revenue growth in key markets: Australia (up 236.1%), Japan (up 22.1%), and South Korea (up 455.1%) [2] Group 2: Product and Market Expansion - SharkNinja launched several new products in the Asia-Pacific region, including the Shark EvopowerNeo/Neo+, CarpetXpert, and Ninja Blast, which have performed well [2] - The company is actively expanding into Southeast Asia, with agreements signed with local distributors for product shipments [2] - Joyoung is focusing on high-quality, innovative small appliances, achieving growth in the domestic market despite overall sluggish sales in kitchen appliances [3] Group 3: Future Outlook and Investment Rating - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025 to $0.63 million, down from a previous estimate of $1.07 million, but projects significant growth in 2026 and 2027 [3] - The Asia-Pacific business outlook remains positive, with potential for growth compared to industry peers, suggesting over 20% upside in valuation [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for WEB Travel Group (WEB.AX) with a 12-month target price of A$7.10, representing a potential upside of 35% from the current price of A$5.26 [1][3]. Core Insights - WEB's total transaction value (TTV) reached A$4.9 billion for FY25, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22%. Revenue increased by 1% year-on-year, with EBITDA reported at A$121 million [1][2]. - Management provided guidance for FY26 EBITDA margin between 44% and 47%, down from a previous estimate of 48%, due to investments in hotel contracting teams in the Asia-Pacific and Americas regions. Despite this, confidence in a 6.5% revenue/TTV margin for the medium term remains [3][12]. - The report highlights a strong performance in the first eight weeks of FY26, with TTV and order volume growing by 28% and 29% respectively, driven by a 36% increase in the Americas [1][2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for FY25, FY26, FY27, and FY28 are A$328.4 million, A$386.0 million, A$450.3 million, and A$507.2 million respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.6% expected [4][11]. - EBITDA estimates for the same periods are A$120.6 million, A$153.6 million, A$191.2 million, and A$217.5 million, indicating a growth trajectory [4][11]. - The report anticipates a diluted EPS of A$0.20 for FY25, increasing to A$0.44 by FY28, reflecting a strong growth outlook [4][11]. Valuation Methodology - The valuation approach remains unchanged, utilizing an EV/EBITDA multiple adjusted to FY27 EBITDA, with a revised multiple of 12x based on comparable companies [12][15]. - The target price of A$7.10 is derived from a combination of fundamental valuation (85%) and theoretical M&A valuation (15%) [15][12].

Group 1 - Nine brokerages have provided investment ratings and target prices for Xiaomi Group (01810.HK) [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Home Depot (HD.N) is maintained at "Neutral" [6]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with comparable sales down 0.3% year-over-year. Revenue increased by 9.4% to $39.86 billion, primarily due to the acquisition of SRS. However, net profit decreased by 4.6% to $3.43 billion, and EPS fell by 5.0% to $3.45 per share. The performance reflects ongoing pressures from a high-interest-rate environment and uncertainty in the economic landscape [6]. - Home Depot's operational data showed a year-over-year improvement in Q1 2025, with customer transactions increasing by 2.1% to 394.8 million and average transaction value rising slightly to $90.71 [6]. - The housing market index (HMI) and building permit data indicate a generally weak industry sentiment, with the HMI dropping to 34 in May 2025, a decrease of 6 points month-over-month. Additionally, building permits were down 3% year-over-year [6]. - The company maintains guidance for a 1% increase in comparable sales for 2025, with plans to open approximately 13 new stores and an expected diluted EPS decline of 3% [6]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected to grow by 2.5%, 2.2%, and 4.8%, reaching $163.50 billion, $167.10 billion, and $175.15 billion, respectively. Net profit is expected to decline by 3.5% in 2025, followed by growth of 4.0% and 4.3% in the subsequent years [6]. - The target price for Home Depot is set at $371.89, based on absolute valuation methods, with a corresponding PE ratio of 25.9x for the 2025 forecast EPS [6]. Financial Summary - Revenue (in million USD): - 2024A: 159,514 - 2025E: 163,502 - 2026E: 167,099 - 2027E: 175,153 - Net Profit (in million USD): - 2024A: 14,806 - 2025E: 14,284 - 2026E: 14,855 - 2027E: 15,500 - EPS (in USD): - 2024A: 14.90 - 2025E: 14.37 - 2026E: 14.95 - 2027E: 15.59 - PE Ratios: - 2024A: 24.89 - 2025E: 25.80 - 2026E: 24.81 - 2027E: 23.78 [6][12].

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that Lianmei Holdings (600167) is expected to face a decline in net profit due to impairment losses, but maintains a stable dividend policy, leading to an "Accumulate" rating from Zhongyou Securities [1][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 3.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 660 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.3% [1]. - For Q4 2024, revenue was 1.21 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.3% and a year-on-year increase of 248.3%. Net profit for the same period was 150 million yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 26.8% and a year-on-year increase of 390.4% [1]. - In Q1 2025, revenue was 1.70 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 620 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6% [1]. Profitability and Costs - In Q1 2025, the company's gross margin and net margin were 49.3% and 37.0%, respectively, reflecting increases of 4.6 percentage points and 3.2 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company experienced an overall increase of 1.6 percentage points in expense ratios, with sales expense ratio at 1.1%, R&D expense ratio at 0.2%, management expense ratio at 2.2%, and financial expense ratio at -1.0% [2]. Cash Flow and Dividends - In 2024, the company generated a net cash flow from operating activities of 1.30 billion yuan, with cash on hand amounting to 7.48 billion yuan [2]. - Total cash dividends, special dividends, and buyback amounts for 2024 were 440 million yuan, 270 million yuan, and 190 million yuan, respectively, totaling 910 million yuan, resulting in a dividend yield of 6.8% based on the closing price on April 30, 2025 [2]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.74 billion yuan, 4.03 billion yuan, and 4.40 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of 780 million yuan, 860 million yuan, and 960 million yuan for the same years [3]. - Corresponding price-to-earnings ratios (PE) are expected to be 17, 15, and 14 times for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 and Q1 2025 met expectations, with a sequential improvement in Q1 growth rates [7] - The company achieved total revenue of 2.874 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.96%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 501.43 million yuan, up 0.20% year-on-year [7] - The growth in revenue and profit is driven by stable performance in various business segments, particularly in the implant and comprehensive repair sectors, while orthodontics showed signs of recovery [7] Financial Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - Total revenue is projected to grow from 2.874 billion yuan in 2024 to 3.152 billion yuan in 2025, representing a growth rate of 9.68% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 501.43 million yuan in 2024 to 561.89 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 12.06% [1] - Earnings Per Share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 1.12 yuan in 2024 to 1.26 yuan in 2025 [1] - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 35.80 in 2024 to 31.95 in 2025 [1] Business Performance - The company reported a total outpatient volume of 3.5334 million visits in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.37% [7] - The breakdown of revenue by business segment for 2024 includes: - Implant business revenue of 530 million yuan, up 10.6% year-on-year - Orthodontics revenue of 470 million yuan, down 5.05% year-on-year - Pediatric business revenue of 500 million yuan, up 0.29% year-on-year - Repair business revenue of 460 million yuan, up 1.53% year-on-year - Comprehensive business revenue of 770 million yuan, up 1.27% year-on-year [7] Profitability Metrics - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 38.5%, with a net profit margin of 19.91% [7] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin improved to 44.21%, while the net profit margin increased to 29.02% [7] - The management expense ratio showed a significant decrease, contributing to the overall stability in expense ratios [7]