新世纪评级 建材行业 2025 年信用回顾与 2026 年展望 建材 水泥：（弱）稳定 建筑玻璃：负面 建材行业 2025 年信用回顾与 2026 年展望 工商企业评级部 杨亿 袁诗怡 摘要 建材行业所涉范围广泛，本文着重就水泥及建筑玻璃行业展开分析。建材 行业系典型的投资拉动型行业，2025 年前三季度下游房地产行业持续低 迷，投资降幅走阔，基建投资则因财政支出重心转移及重大项目投资不利 而增长放缓，建材需求缺乏实质性提振。（水泥）2025 年以来，主要因我 国房地产市场深度调整，加之交通运输和公共建筑等领域投资情况不济， 水泥需求持续收缩。水泥行业错峰生产常态化开展，执行力度有所加强， 2025 年前三季度我国水泥产量同比有所下降，但需求跌幅超预期下，价 格中枢下移。2025 年煤炭价格先跌后涨，前三季度成本压力减轻下，行 业盈利状况有所改善，第四季度成本转嫁压力虽有所加大，但估计行业全 年利润总额仍同比小幅增长。（建筑玻璃）2025 年前三季度，房地产竣工 规模同比降幅较大，建筑玻璃需求持续收缩。2025 年以来行业产能开工 率波动相对较大，玻璃供给量同比小幅收缩，但远不及需求降幅，玻璃库 存维持高位， ...

Financial Data and Key Indicators Changes - July data remains flat, with real estate sales declining slightly month-on-month, and physical volume data in real estate staying stable [2][4] - The performance of leading companies in the consumer building materials sector is expected to maintain resilience despite high base effects in Q2 [4][5] Business Line Data and Key Indicators Changes - Cement: Regional hotspots show some performance, but demand continues to drag down the sector [3][10] - Architectural glass: Float glass profitability has seen a temporary recovery, but the medium to long-term outlook remains in a bottom-seeking phase [3][15] - Glass fiber: Inventory accumulation has increased, with major manufacturers maintaining stable prices [3][24] - Carbon fiber: Limited demand recovery, with a clear differentiation between low-end and high-end capacities [3][28] Market Data and Key Indicators Changes - The cement market has seen a slight price increase of 0.13% nationwide, with price adjustments varying by region [33] - In the glass industry, the average price of float glass is 1454 RMB/ton, with inventory levels decreasing slightly [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction and Industry Competition - Leading companies in the consumer building materials sector are focusing on long-term positioning despite short-term risks, with a strong emphasis on market share and valuation alignment [2][5] - Companies like Oriental Yuhong and Beixin Building Materials are expected to maintain robust profit growth and competitive advantages in their respective segments [6][7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management emphasizes the critical impact of real estate sales on the building materials supply chain, indicating that inventory clearance in real estate will significantly enhance the operational environment for the entire sector [4][5] - The outlook for 2024 suggests a profit growth of 15% for Oriental Yuhong, with a recovery in valuation expected as the balance sheet improves [6] Other Important Information - The consumer building materials sector is experiencing a significant divergence in performance between leading and second-tier companies, with the former showing more resilience [5][6] - The glass industry is facing challenges with profitability, as many companies are currently operating at a loss due to high inventory levels and price pressures [15][20] Q&A Session All Questions and Answers Question: What is the outlook for the cement market? - The cement market is expected to see price increases driven by industry self-discipline and seasonal demand fluctuations, although challenges remain due to high inventory levels and weak demand [33][34] Question: How are leading companies in the building materials sector performing? - Leading companies are expected to outperform their peers, with strong management strategies and market positioning allowing them to navigate current challenges effectively [5][6]