房地产及建材行业 房地产-标配（维持） 建材材料-标配（维持） 房地产及建材行业双周报（2025/11/14-2025/11/27） 行 业 双 周 建材基本面及业绩整体有所修复 2025 年 11 月 28 日 投资要点： 分析师：何敏仪 S0340513040001 电话：0769-22177163 邮箱：hmy@dgzq.com.cn 资料来源：iFind，东莞证券研究所 证 券 SAC 执业证书编号： 申万房地产行业指数走势 房地产周观点：中指院：10月百城二手住宅均价为13268元/平，环比下 跌0.84%，同比下跌7.60%，在高挂牌量及预期偏弱影响下，二手房价格 下行压力仍较大。新建住宅均价为16973元/平，环比上涨0.28%，同比 上涨2.67%。截至10月末，全国商品房销售面积累计同比下跌6.8%，全 国商品住宅销售面积累计同比下跌7%，降幅相比9月末分别扩大1.3个百 分点和扩大1.4个百分点。全国商品房销售金额同比下降9.6%，全国商 品住宅销售金额同比下降9.4%，降幅进一步扩大。从房企三季报业绩来 看，行业整体亏损程度相比二季末进一步扩大。整体来看，行业基本面 仍处于"磨底"阶段。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the building materials industry [12]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights an increase in expectations regarding real estate policies, suggesting a focus on high-quality consumer building materials leaders. The industry is experiencing intensified downward pressure, but the anticipated policy tools aim to reduce housing burdens, which could support residential demand [6][9]. - The report recommends focusing on quality leaders in consumer building materials, such as SanKeTree, TuBaoBao, and WeiXing New Materials, as they possess bottom value and are expected to benefit from policy changes and operational turning points [6][9]. - The report notes a slight decline in cement prices and a shift in glass inventory from decrease to increase, indicating ongoing challenges in the market [7][8]. Summary by Sections Basic Situation - Cement prices have slightly decreased, with a national average of 355.65 yuan/ton, down 1.45 yuan/ton week-on-week and down 76.77 yuan/ton year-on-year. The cement output rate is approximately 45.5%, reflecting a 0.4 percentage point decrease [24][32]. - The glass market is operating weakly, with a national average price of 61.55 yuan per weight box, down 1.84 yuan per weight box week-on-week and down 15.22 yuan year-on-year. The inventory of glass has increased, indicating pressure on the market [38][40]. Recommendations - The report continues to recommend investments in the African supply chain and existing supply chain leaders, highlighting companies like Huaxin Cement and Keda Manufacturing as key players benefiting from demand recovery and structural optimization [9]. - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on quality leaders in the consumer building materials sector, particularly those with strong business models and growth potential, such as SanKeTree and TuBaoBao [9]. Market Trends - The report indicates that the downward slope of the industry is increasing, with a focus on the expected rise in real estate policies. The core reasons for the pressure on housing prices in major cities are linked to income and inflation expectations, as well as the rental-to-sale ratio being inverted with mortgage rates [6][9].

Core Viewpoint - The construction materials industry is expected to see structural opportunities by 2026, driven by policies and market conditions, with three main growth engines: new energy, electronics, and computing power [1] Summary by Sections 2025 Review - The construction materials index and fundamentals showed signs of recovery, with the SW construction materials index increasing by 21.37% from the beginning of the year to November 12, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.30 percentage points [2] - Sub-industry performance was mixed, with the fiberglass manufacturing sector leading gains due to the AI computing power boom [2] - Despite a slight revenue decline of 5.74% year-on-year, the industry saw a significant profit improvement, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 21.46% [2] 2026 Outlook - Structural investment opportunities in the construction materials industry are expected to emerge due to intensified policy regulation and sustained high demand in emerging sectors [3] - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to reshape the competitive landscape in traditional materials like cement and glass, improving supply-demand dynamics and gradually restoring industry profitability [3] - The growth of new energy, electronics, and computing sectors will benefit leading companies with technological barriers and production capabilities, particularly in high-performance fiberglass [3] - The demand for renovation and urban renewal in the real estate sector will favor consumer building material leaders with strong channel layouts, brands, and product quality [3] Sub-industry Outlook - **Cement**: Supply regulation effects are expected to improve profitability, with major projects supporting future demand and leading companies expanding into overseas markets [4] - **Fiberglass**: Continued high demand from the wind power and electric vehicle sectors is expected to support sales, with AI computing needs driving fiberglass demand [4] - **Consumer Building Materials**: Urban renewal is likely to boost demand for renovation and repair, while consumption upgrades will increase the demand for high-quality green materials [4] - **Glass**: Prices remain under pressure, but the "anti-involution" policy may help ease supply-demand imbalances [4] Investment Recommendations - Focus on three investment themes: 1. Traditional building materials benefiting from "anti-involution" policies, with recommended companies including Huaxin Cement, Shangfeng Cement, and Conch Cement [4] 2. Emerging sectors with sustained high demand, recommending companies like China Jushi and China National Building Material [4] 3. Consumer building material leaders with strong retail channel layouts, recommending companies such as Oriental Yuhong, Beixin Building Materials, Weixing New Materials, Sankeshu, and Tubao [4]

智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，目前建材板块盈利、估值、持仓均在底部，但部分优质龙头 已率先走出底部，政策预期下，消费建材龙头有望复苏。建材板块基本面虽仍在左侧，但经历了四年的 行业下行期，受益于行业供给出清与企业收入结构(区域、渠道、产品)的转型与升级，部分优秀龙头公 司在经营层面已经逐步企稳(收入增速趋势向好、利润率同比向上)，剩者(胜者)为王的模型逐渐清晰， 并且考虑新的增长曲线，优质龙头未来机会还很大。同时板块持仓和估值仍历史低位，对地产景气和短 期基本面的悲观预期或已持续消化。 广发证券主要观点如下： 消费建材：二手房高景气叠加补贴政策，零售建材景气率先恢复，龙头公司经营韧性强 玻璃：浮法玻璃价格走弱;光伏玻璃部分成交重心松动 据卓创资讯，截至2025年11月20日，国内浮法玻璃均价1154元/吨，环比-2.8%，同比去年-20.6%。库存 天数30.36天，较上周四库存增加0.48天。2.0mm镀膜面板主流订单价格13元/平方米左右，环比持平， 较上周暂无变动，样本库存天数约28.13天，环比增加9.76%。当前玻璃龙头估值偏低，关注旗滨集团、 信义光能、福莱特(A)、福莱特玻璃(H)、信 ...

高低切换周期板块机会展望 20251123 摘要 动力煤价格维持高位，电厂补库需求增加，全国及沿海库存上升，受益 于寒冬预期及用电量增长，煤价有望保持强势，火电企业在年底长协谈 判中占据优势。 国内建材需求萎缩，出海成重要策略。全球水泥需求虽有下滑，但剔除 中国市场后小幅增长，海外水泥价格远高于国内，华新水泥、西部水泥 等企业通过海外布局实现业绩增长。 消费建材企业如东方雨虹、北新建材通过海外并购加速扩张，整合供应 链和零售端优势，提升被收购标的竞争力，实现业务拓展和营收增长。 中国建材企业从产品出口转向品牌、渠道和本地化运营的深度出海模式， 借鉴海外龙头企业经验，提升全球竞争力，品牌力、渠道力和服务力是 关键。 有机硅行业协会减产挺价，价格上涨，行业底部拐点显现，上升弹性空 间巨大。下游新能源、电子电器及半导体需求增长迅速，供需平衡表有 望改善。 Q&A 公用事业及环保行业在近期市场表现如何？未来发展趋势如何？ 上周市场整体表现较弱，尤其是周五受到海外扰动的影响，导致国内市场预期 调整，公用环保板块表现不佳。然而，从防御角度来看，公用环保和煤炭方向 仍具有优势。尽管部分标的存在阶段性压力，但整体防御属性明显 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a strategic shift towards large financial and consumer sectors, indicating a rebound window following the maximum negative impact from equal tariffs [1][9] - The report emphasizes that the market is approaching a phase bottom, with short-term adjustments not altering the long-term upward trend, despite liquidity pressures from the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance [2][9] - Historical analysis of the U.S. stock market shows that significant downturns typically require major negative shocks, with expected maximum adjustments around 10% in the current context [3][10][11] Group 2 - The report notes that market volume has decreased, with transaction amounts falling below 20 trillion yuan, indicating a lack of momentum in market leadership [4][12] - It suggests that the current market adjustment presents a good opportunity for accumulation, focusing on sectors with favorable risk-reward ratios, such as real estate and resource commodities [4][13][14] - The report identifies mid-term investment opportunities in high-growth sectors, waiting for renewed confidence in high-prosperity segments like storage and AI [4][13][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the construction materials industry [2][4][35] Core Insights - The construction materials industry is experiencing a mixed performance, with traditional sectors like cement and glass facing weak short-term demand, while the fiberglass sector shows promising growth due to rising prices of mid-to-high-end products [4][35] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring supply-side changes in traditional industries and capitalizing on opportunities arising from the price increases in mid-to-high-end fiberglass products [4][35] Cement Industry Summary - In October, cement demand weakened due to adverse weather conditions in northern regions and tight funding in southern regions, leading to a 2% month-on-month decline in national cement shipment rates and a 9% year-on-year decline [4][11] - The average price of cement in October was 348.96 RMB/ton, a slight increase of 2.19 RMB/ton from September, indicating ongoing weak demand [4][11] - Key companies to watch include Shengfeng Cement (000672.SZ), Huaxin Cement (600801.SH), and Conch Cement (600585.SH) [4][11] Glass Industry Summary - The glass market is expected to maintain a low-level fluctuation after experiencing a brief price increase in October, with no strong reduction in supply anticipated [26][36] - The cumulative production of flat glass from January to October 2025 was 805 million weight cases, a year-on-year decline of 4.4% [18] - Industry leader Qibin Group (601636.SH) is highlighted as a key player to monitor [26][36] Fiberglass Industry Summary - The fiberglass sector is witnessing a price increase, particularly in high-end electronic yarns and fabrics, with G75 yarn prices rising to 9100 RMB/ton in October, up 500 RMB/ton from September [28][35] - The demand for fiberglass in wind power and new energy vehicles remains strong, with a year-on-year increase in industrial wind power generation of 7.6% from January to October 2025 [27][28] - Key companies in the mid-to-high-end fiberglass market include China Jushi (600176.SH), China National Materials (002080.SZ), and Honghe Technology (603256.SH) [28][35] Consumer Building Materials Summary - The retail sales of building and decoration materials showed a slight year-on-year increase of 0.5% from January to October 2025, indicating modest demand growth [31] - Recent policy directions from the 20th Central Committee emphasize promoting high-quality development in real estate, which is expected to provide a foundation for long-term industry transformation [31][37] - Recommended companies in this sector include Weixing New Materials (002372.SZ), Beixin Building Materials (000786.SZ), and Sankeshu (603737.SH) [31][37]

Group 1 - The report highlights a strong recovery in the cement and fiberglass sectors, with unique performance from various consumer building materials stocks driven by anti-involution, specialty fabrics, and overseas expansion [3][11]. - In 2026, the outlook for the building materials industry includes accelerated overseas expansion, benefiting companies that have adjusted their channel, product, and sales structures over the past four years [3][11]. - The report identifies key companies to watch, including Huaxin Cement, Keda Manufacturing, and Western Cement, which are positioned well for overseas growth [3][17]. Group 2 - The building materials sector outperformed the CSI 300 index with a cumulative increase of 22.35% from the beginning of 2025 to November 14, 2025, driven by high demand for specialty fiberglass and other catalysts [8][11]. - The report notes that the cement and fiberglass sectors have achieved profit recovery, with the fiberglass sector showing significant revenue growth [11][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of overseas markets, particularly in Africa, where population growth and urbanization present substantial opportunities for building materials companies [27][35]. Group 3 - The report discusses the transformation of distribution channels in the consumer building materials sector, highlighting companies like Sanhe Tree and Dongpeng Holdings that have successfully adapted to market changes [3][17]. - The consumer building materials segment is expected to benefit from a recovery in domestic demand, with companies like China Liansu and Beixin Building Materials showing potential for growth [3][11]. - The report indicates that the fiberglass sector is experiencing stable profit improvements, with companies like China Jushi and China National Building Material expected to perform well [3][17]. Group 4 - The report outlines the significant growth potential in the fiberglass market, with expectations for continued high demand for specialty fabrics [3][17]. - The report highlights the competitive advantage of Chinese companies in the global market, particularly in cement production, where China accounts for 47% of global output [34][35]. - The report emphasizes the importance of overseas expansion for companies like Huaxin Cement and Keda Manufacturing, which are actively increasing their production capacities in emerging markets [42][54].

华龙证券发布研报称，2025年前三季度建材行业营业收入小幅下滑，但盈利能力改善，尤其水泥及玻纤 行业盈利能力大幅提升。展望四季度，预计水泥行业将通过加强行业自律和错峰生产力度，持续推进价 格上调，以提振盈利水平；关注浮法玻璃旺季供需侧改善积极变化，以及光伏玻璃挺价情况；高端玻纤 需求有望带动玻纤盈利能力大幅改善，地产政策的持续出台也有望带动行业估值修复。 华龙证券主要观点如下： 水泥行业：重点研究的12家水泥上市公司在2025年前三季度实现营收2612.72亿元，同比下滑8.98%，实 现归母净利71.95亿元，同比增长134.64%。展望四季度，虽然水泥行业进入全年需求最高峰，但受市场 资金短缺影响，预计水泥需求环比三季度仅小幅提升。考虑到多数地区水泥企业在三季度的盈利表现普 遍不佳，企业改善利润的意愿较为强烈，预计四季度行业将通过加强行业自律和错峰生产力度，持续推 进价格上调，以提振盈利水平。 中长期来看，水泥行业供给侧改革力度加大，行业供需格局有望改善。个股关注水泥龙头华新水泥 (600801.SH)、上峰水泥（000672）(000672.SZ)、海螺水泥（600585）(600585.SH)。 玻璃 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the Western Land-Sea New Corridor, with Chongqing as a key node, facilitating global access through various transportation methods. The cargo volume and value from January to October reached 272,300 TEUs and 48.962 billion yuan, respectively, marking increases of 33% and 27% year-on-year. The network has expanded to 581 ports across 127 countries and regions, covering over 1,300 product types [1][11] - In the construction materials sector, four key points are identified for addressing the downturn: low market share and high growth potential, discovering new demands for existing products, developing second business lines, and fostering innovation to create high-barrier business models. The report highlights that the difficulty of these points increases, particularly in innovation [2][12] - The report identifies several companies as potential investment opportunities, including Keda Manufacturing, Huaxin Cement, and China National Building Material, among others, focusing on both domestic and overseas markets [13] Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - The report discusses the Western Land-Sea New Corridor and its significance in enhancing trade and logistics, with a focus on the expected completion by 2025 and the ongoing construction of the Pinglu Canal [1][11] Cyclical Linkage - Cement prices averaged 352 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan/year-on-year, with a national average shipment rate of 46.2%. Glass prices were reported at 1,195.35 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease. The report also covers trends in concrete, fiberglass, aluminum, and steel, indicating a mixed outlook for these materials [3][14] Market Performance - The construction materials index showed a performance of -0.97%, with specific segments like glass manufacturing and fiberglass experiencing declines, while consumer building materials and pipe materials saw positive growth [17][18] Price Changes in Construction Materials - Cement prices showed a slight increase of 0.3% week-on-week, with regional variations. The report notes a general upward trend in prices due to seasonal demand and efforts to enhance profitability [20][23] - The floating glass market is described as stable but weak, with prices slightly declining. The report indicates that inventory levels are increasing, and market sentiment is cautious [32][47]