2026 年 03 月 01 日 【投资要点】 挖掘价值 投资成长 强于大市（维持） 行 业 研 究 / 建 筑 材 料 / 证 券 研 究 报 告 建筑材料行业周报 节后复工数据农历同比改善，上海地产 政策放松助力地产链回暖 东方财富证券研究所 证券分析师：王翩翩 证书编号：S1160524060001 证券分析师：郁晾 证书编号：S1160524100004 证券分析师：闫广 证书编号：S1160526010004 联系人：陈怡洁 相对指数表现 -10% 4% 18% 32% 46% 60% 2025/3 2025/8 2026/2 建筑材料 沪深300 相关研究 《关注节后下游复工节奏，期待小阳春》 2026.02.23 《7628 电子布再提价推升业绩弹性，消费 建材小阳春可期》 2026.02.08 《拥抱景气周期，聚焦涨价链条》 2026.02.01 《新一轮城市更新开启，关注消费建材底 部向上的弹性》 2026.01.25 《政策组合拳助力"开门红"， 看好玻纤 景气度向上》 2026.01.18 板块行情回顾：本周建材板块上涨 3.3%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 2.2pct。 分 子 板 块 ...

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.66% to 26,765.72 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.19% to 5,260.5 points [1] - Major technology stocks had varied movements, with Alibaba up 0.2%, Tencent up 0.48%, and Meituan up 1.6%, while Xiaomi and NetEase saw declines of 0.39% and 0.61% respectively [1] Sector Highlights - The steel, non-ferrous metals, and rare earth sectors led the gains, with Chongqing Steel rising nearly 8% and China Aluminum up 5% [1] - The semiconductor sector weakened, with Lattice Semiconductor down over 7% [1] - The AI application sector experienced a pullback, with Zhiyun down 10.75% [1] Company-Specific Movements - Sinochem Fertilizer saw a rise of over 3% due to international phosphate prices exceeding $700 per ton [2] - Dongyue Group increased by nearly 7% supported by low refrigerant inventory and bullish price expectations [3] - Dazhu CNC rose over 5% after its laser drilling machine received certification from NVIDIA [4] - Huizhu Technology surged over 10%, reaching a historical high after raising HKD 1.635 billion [5] - Hongteng Precision increased over 6% as it transitions towards high-margin AI server interconnect and electric vehicle businesses [6] - Mingming Henan saw a rise of nearly 9% as its leading position in the industry was reaffirmed [8] Analyst Insights - Analysts from China Galaxy Securities highlighted three main themes for the Hong Kong market: rising geopolitical risks boosting precious metals, consumer policy driving low-valuation consumer stock recovery, and the release of valuation pressure in the tech sector [12] - Haitong International expressed optimism about the pharmaceutical sector, particularly Stone Pharmaceutical Group, expecting it to return to an upward cycle by 2026 [12]

花旗此前表示，该行在中国联塑业绩缄默期前与公司CFO及副CFO接洽，其内地核心业务呈现企稳迹 象，住宅业务的拖累减少，并被非住宅业务如农业、工业、医疗及市政等业务强劲增长所抵销。该行以 预测今年市盈率9倍为估值基础，目标价相应由6.5港元上调至7港元，评级"买入"。 中金发布研报称，消费建材行业价格有望温和修复，部分板块龙头毛利率或边际改善。近期龙头企业相 继发布涨价函，如防水、石膏板、市政管道等细分领域。判断提价基础包括供给优化；上游原材料多为 化工品，年初以来价格中枢上移，包括PVC、乳液等。该行看好行业复价趋势下，龙头企业盈利边际修 复。该行建议关注中国联塑等。 中国联塑(02128)盘中涨近7%，年内累计涨幅已超50%。截至发稿，涨3.91%，报6.91港元，成交额1.13 亿港元。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中国联塑(02128)盘中涨近7%，年内累计涨幅已超50%。截至发稿，涨3.91%，报 6.91港元，成交额1.13亿港元。 花旗此前表示，该行在中国联塑业绩缄默期前与公司CFO及副CFO接洽，其内地核心业务呈现企稳迹 象，住宅业务的拖累减少，并被非住宅业务如农业、工业、医疗及市政等业务强劲增长所抵销。该行以 预测今年市盈率9倍为估值基础，目标价相应由6.5港元上调至7港元，评级"买入"。 中金发布研报称，消费建材行业价格有望温和修复，部分板块龙头毛利率或边际改善。近期龙头企业相 继发布涨价函，如防水、石膏板、市政管道等细分领域。判断提价基础包括供给优化；上游原材料多为 化工品，年初以来价格中枢上移，包括PVC、乳液等。该行看好行业复价趋势下，龙头企业盈利边际修 复。该行建议关注中国联塑等。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the **building materials and new materials** industry, particularly in relation to AI computing and electronic materials, with a notable emphasis on special electronic fabrics and PCB substrates [1][2]. Key Insights and Arguments 1. **AI-Driven Growth**: - The main growth drivers in the building materials sector are AI computing-related electronic materials, with special electronic fabrics leading the fiberglass segment. In the new materials sector, PCB substrates and semiconductor packaging materials are at the forefront [1]. 2. **Supply-Demand Dynamics**: - The electronic fabric market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with an overall industry supply gap of approximately **20%**. Since January 2026, all categories of electronic fabrics have faced supply tightness, with companies holding orders for about **2 months** [1]. - The production capacity for standard electronic fabrics is shifting towards high-end products, resulting in a **60%** loss in capacity. This ongoing contraction in supply is expected to persist [1]. 3. **Price Increases**: - The electronic fabric industry has seen a price increase of **10%** in 2026, following **4-5** price hikes in 2025. High-end products like DK fabric, Q fabric, and CTE fabric are still in an upward price trend [1]. 4. **Production Bottlenecks**: - High-end product production relies on Toyota's advanced weaving machines, which have a delivery cycle of **1-2 years**. However, breakthroughs in pool kiln methods could lead to increased supply by 2029, potentially resulting in oversupply [1]. 5. **Inventory Levels**: - Inventory levels for CCL and electronic fabric factories are at historical lows, approximately **one week**, with PCB manufacturers extending their stocking period from the usual **1 month** to over **2 months** [1]. 6. **Profitability**: - High-end specialty electronic fabrics can achieve gross margins of **40%-50%**, with potential increases beyond **50%** as yield rates improve [1]. Recommendations 1. **Key Companies to Watch**: - Recommended companies include **Macro Technology**, **International Composites**, **China Jushi**, and **China National Materials**. Other notable mentions are **Philips**, **Gobi Technology**, and PCB-related firms like **China Tungsten High-Tech**, **Lianrui New Materials**, and **Dongcai Technology** [2]. 2. **Consumer Building Materials**: - The industry is nearing a bottoming phase, with significant price wars easing. Leading companies are shifting focus from price competition to quality and profitability recovery, with expectations for stabilization in 2026 and performance elasticity in 2027 [2]. 3. **Segment Differentiation**: - The waterproof segment shows signs of ending price wars, while the renovation of existing properties is becoming a core growth driver. Leading firms are enhancing their C-end and overseas strategies [2]. 4. **Strategic Focus**: - Major companies are prioritizing profitability recovery, channel optimization, and product diversification, while also accelerating overseas expansion to create a second growth curve [2]. 5. **Recommended Stocks**: - Elastic stocks include **Keshun Co.**, **Oriental Yuhong**, and **Hankao Group**. Stable stocks to consider are **Rabbit Baby**, **Sankeshu**, **Dongpeng Holdings**, **Monalisa**, and **China Liansu** [2]. Additional Insights - Traditional cyclical products are highlighted, with a focus on local state-owned enterprises like **Sichuan Road and Bridge**, **Shandong Road and Bridge**, and **China Railway**. The steel structure sector is represented by companies like **Honglu Steel Structure** and **Jinggong Steel Structure** [3]. - The cement sector is advised to focus on regional leaders such as **Western Cement**, **Huaxin Cement**, and **Shangfeng Cement** [3]. - Other new materials and robotics sectors are also mentioned, with companies like **Pana Micro透**, **TianYue Advanced**, and **Jing Sheng Co.** being noted [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Weight" rating for the building materials industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [46]. Core Insights - The building materials industry is experiencing an optimization in supply and demand dynamics due to the "anti-involution" policies, with expectations for price increases in electronic fabrics [2][4]. - The cement sector is anticipated to see a further contraction in total production capacity in 2026, driven by regulatory measures and a potential recovery in real estate sales in key cities [4][39]. - The flat glass market is showing signs of recovery with a slight increase in production and prices, although short-term demand remains weak due to seasonal factors [4][40]. - The photovoltaic glass market is facing challenges with excess supply and ongoing losses, but long-term demand is expected to be supported by the development of new energy bases [4][40]. - The glass fiber industry is in a structural recovery phase, with increasing demand for high-end products driven by advancements in AI and 5G technologies [4][40]. Summary by Sections Cement - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has implemented measures to control cement production capacity, leading to an expected reduction in total capacity in 2026 [4][39]. - Recent data indicates a recovery in real estate sales, which, combined with major infrastructure projects, may improve the supply-demand balance in the cement industry [4][39]. - Recommended stocks include Shangfeng Cement, Taipai Group, and Huaxin Cement, which have favorable fundamentals and high dividend yields [4][39]. Glass and Fiberglass - The flat glass production in 2025 is projected to be 97,591 million weight boxes, a 3% decrease year-on-year, but December 2025 saw a 3.4% increase compared to the previous year [4][40]. - The price of float glass has shown a slight recovery, with expectations for price stabilization due to supply-side adjustments [4][40]. - The fiberglass market is benefiting from increased demand for low-DK glass fabrics, with Taiwanese manufacturers shifting production to meet this demand [4][40]. - Recommended stocks in the fiberglass sector include China Jushi, which is expected to benefit from the structural recovery in the industry [6][40]. Consumer Building Materials - Leading companies like Keshun and Sankeshu have announced price increases due to rising raw material costs, indicating a trend of price stabilization in the industry [6][42]. - The demand for new construction is weakening, but renovation and urban renewal projects are expected to drive growth [6][42]. - Recommended stocks include Beixin Building Materials, Tubaobao, and Sankeshu, which are well-positioned to recover ahead of their peers [6][42].

Group 1: Cement Industry - The cement industry is expected to see a phase of supply improvement starting in the second half of 2024, with profitability gradually recovering by 2026 [1][2] - The average cement price in 2025 is projected to be 372.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.6 yuan/ton year-on-year, with a cumulative production decline of 7.2% [2] - A total of 16 million tons/year of capacity has been removed through capacity replacement, which may lead to asset impairment for several companies [2] Group 2: Glass Industry - The flat glass industry is experiencing a significant decline, with the average price in 2025 expected to be 1323.3 yuan/ton, down 383.4 yuan/ton year-on-year [3] - Daily melting capacity has dropped below 150,000 tons, a decrease of 27,000 tons/day from previous highs, indicating an acceleration in the cold repair cycle [3] - The profitability of photovoltaic glass is under pressure, with a projected average price of 21 yuan/square meter in 2025, down 3 yuan/square meter from 2024 [3] Group 3: Fiberglass and Electronic Fabrics - The average price of fiberglass yarn in 2025 is expected to be 3866 yuan/ton, an increase of 174 yuan/ton year-on-year, indicating stable market conditions [4] - The average price of ordinary electronic fabric is projected to be 9012 yuan/ton in 2025, up 539 yuan/ton year-on-year, reflecting improving market conditions [4] - Demand for special electronic fabrics is accelerating, contributing positively to the performance of companies in this segment [4] Group 4: Consumer Building Materials - Companies like Three Trees and Hanhai Group are maintaining strong revenue and profit performance through effective channel development and brand advantages [5] - Companies in the gypsum board and retail pipeline sectors are expected to maintain strong operational quality, with potential for significant performance improvement in 2026 [5] - Several consumer building material companies are anticipated to release credit risks in 2025, allowing for a more favorable performance outlook in 2026 [5]

Investment Rating - The report rates the construction materials industry as "Overweight," indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [2][12]. Core Insights - Domestic cement prices are expected to show a trend of high prices followed by a decline, with an average price of 372.8 RMB/ton in 2025, a decrease of 12.6 RMB/ton year-on-year. Cement production is projected to decline by 7.2% in 2025, with a gradual recovery in profitability anticipated in 2026 due to supply-side improvements [4]. - The glass sector continues to face pressure, with the average price of flat glass expected to drop to 1323.3 RMB/ton in 2025, a significant decrease of 383.4 RMB/ton year-on-year. The industry is entering a period of accelerated cold repairs, which may enhance profitability in the future [4]. - The fiberglass yarn market remains relatively stable, with an expected average price of 3866 RMB/ton in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 174 RMB/ton. The demand for specialty electronic fabrics is anticipated to grow rapidly, contributing positively to the sector's performance [4]. - Consumer building materials are expected to show strong performance, with companies like Sanke Tree and Han Gao Group maintaining excellent revenue and profit due to strong channel development and brand advantages [4]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry - The average cement price in 2025 is projected at 372.8 RMB/ton, down 12.6 RMB/ton from the previous year. The first quarter's average price is expected to be 400.8 RMB/ton, declining to 358.0 RMB/ton by the fourth quarter. Cement production is expected to decrease by 7.2% in 2025, with a recovery in profitability anticipated in 2026 due to supply-side improvements [4]. Glass Industry - The average price of flat glass is expected to be 1323.3 RMB/ton in 2025, a decrease of 383.4 RMB/ton year-on-year. The industry is entering a cold repair cycle, with daily melting capacity dropping below 150,000 tons. This may lead to improved profitability in the future [4]. Fiberglass Sector - The average price of fiberglass yarn is projected to be 3866 RMB/ton in 2025, an increase of 174 RMB/ton year-on-year. The demand for specialty electronic fabrics is expected to accelerate, contributing positively to the sector's performance [4]. Consumer Building Materials - Companies such as Sanke Tree and Han Gao Group are expected to perform strongly due to their robust channel development and brand advantages. Other companies in the sector are also expected to maintain good operational quality, with potential for significant performance recovery in 2026 [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with improving quarterly reports and those benefiting from supply-side adjustments. Recommended companies include Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, and Tianshan Shares in the cement sector, as well as China Jushi and Zhongcai Technology in the fiberglass sector. In consumer building materials, companies like Dongfang Yuhong and Kezhong Shares are highlighted for their strong performance [4].

Group 1 - The construction materials industry is transitioning from "incremental expansion" to "stock optimization" due to policy guidance and market clearing, which may support a systematic uplift in the sector's valuation center [1] - Multiple government departments have implemented a "de-involution" strategy for the construction materials industry, tightening capacity replacement policies for basic materials like cement and glass [2] - In 2024, the cement clinker capacity is expected to decrease by approximately 30 million tons, primarily affecting small kiln lines that do not meet energy consumption standards [2] Group 2 - The construction materials industry has experienced two consecutive years of negative capital expenditure, with a projected 18% year-on-year decline in 2024 for the cement sector, marking the lowest new clinker capacity in a decade [5] - The market concentration in the cement industry has increased, with the top ten companies' market share rising from 58% in 2021 to 67% in 2024, indicating a shift towards an oligopolistic competition structure [5] - Leading companies are shifting focus from market share competition to profit protection, with peak production execution rates increasing from 70% to over 90% [6] Group 3 - In Q4 2024, cement prices in East China rebounded by over 20% from their annual low, demonstrating the effectiveness of supply-side reforms [6][8] - The construction materials sector exhibits a low asset and low debt advantage, with a median debt-to-asset ratio of 48.7% compared to 72.3% for the real estate development sector, indicating stronger financial resilience [9] - The sector's business model emphasizes "light assets + channel penetration," resulting in healthy cash flow generation capabilities, with a year-on-year increase of 8.9% in net cash flow from operating activities by Q3 2025 [11] Group 4 - The construction materials ETF (159745) tracks the CSI All-Share Construction Materials Index, covering leading companies across the entire industry chain, providing an efficient tool for investors to gain exposure to the sector [12] - The top ten holdings in the ETF include major players like Conch Cement and Oriental Yuhong, reflecting a high concentration in industry leaders [13] - The construction materials sector is viewed as a core cyclical investment, with demand recovery, supply optimization, and profit recovery supporting its investment value, especially during market shifts towards cyclical stocks [13]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry and Company Involved - The notes primarily focus on the **electronic fabric** industry and **real estate** market, with specific mentions of companies such as **China Jushi**, **Keshun Co., Ltd.**, **Sankeshu**, **Rabbit Baby**, **Hankao Group**, **Beixin Building Materials**, **Weixing New Materials**, **Oriental Yuhong**, **Qingniao Fire Protection**, **Qiba Group**, and **Xinyi Glass**. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Price Increase in Electronic Fabric** The price of 7628 electronic fabric has increased again, with international composite materials rising by **0.5-0.6 yuan/meter**. The supply-demand dynamics in the industry continue to improve, leading to a tight supply of traditional electronic yarn and fabric, alongside a strong demand for mid-to-high-end products. This trend supports a continued price increase, and the outlook for the fiberglass sector is positive for **2026** [1][1][1]. 2. **Stable Demand in Fiberglass Sector** The demand in sectors such as wind power and thermoplastics remains stable, and the expected impact of new supply in **2026** is limited. The supply-demand balance is anticipated to improve marginally, with a strong recommendation for **China Jushi** and suggestions to pay attention to **International Composite Materials**, **Changhai Co.**, and **China National Materials Technology** [1][1][1]. 3. **Real Estate Market Recovery** In January **2026**, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in major cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen) has collectively rebounded, with a **16% month-on-month increase** and a **33% year-on-year increase** in transaction area. The growth in first-tier cities exceeds **20%** year-on-year, supported by ongoing real estate policy adjustments that help stabilize the market [2][2][2]. 4. **Price Recovery in Construction Materials** The real estate downturn has accelerated the clearing of supply in the construction materials industry, leading to a rebound in prices for certain products. Several leading companies have begun to report profit recovery after strategic adjustments over the past 2-3 years. Recommended companies for stable growth include **Sankeshu** and **Rabbit Baby**, with additional attention to **Hankao Group**, **Beixin Building Materials**, **Weixing New Materials**, **Oriental Yuhong**, **Keshun Co.**, and **Qingniao Fire Protection** [2][2][2]. 5. **Opportunities in Float Glass Industry** The float glass industry is facing challenges, with two new cold repair lines added this week, reducing production capacity to approximately **14.9 million tons/day**. The industry is currently experiencing losses, and the pressure from inventory accumulation during the traditional Chinese New Year may accelerate the exit of production capacity. The glass sector is expected to stabilize, with recommendations to focus on **Qiba Group** and **Xinyi Glass** [2][2][2]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The overall sentiment in the electronic fabric and construction materials sectors indicates a positive outlook for **2026**, with price increases and demand stability being key themes. - The recovery in the real estate market is seen as a potential catalyst for related industries, suggesting a broader economic recovery may be on the horizon. - The mention of specific companies provides actionable insights for investors looking to capitalize on emerging trends in these sectors [1][2][2].