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上海电影(601595):“小妖怪”驱动业绩强劲增长,关注AI+IP布局
Huajin Securities· 2025-10-31 07:32
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company's strong performance is driven by the success of the film "Little Monster," which has generated significant revenue and profit [5] - The company is focusing on an "AI + IP" strategy to enhance its business model and create new growth opportunities [5] - The report maintains profit forecasts, expecting revenues of 8.97 billion, 10.94 billion, and 12.70 billion for 2025-2027, with corresponding net profits of 2.39 billion, 3.14 billion, and 3.89 billion [5] Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 795 million, with a year-on-year growth of 115.9%, followed by a decline of 13.2% in 2024, and a recovery with growth rates of 29.9%, 22.0%, and 16.1% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2][6] - Net profit for 2023 is expected to be 127 million, with a significant increase of 137.9% year-on-year, followed by a decrease of 29.1% in 2024, and a strong recovery with growth rates of 165.7%, 31.1%, and 23.8% for the subsequent years [2][6] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 22.8% in 2023 to 42.8% by 2027 [2][6] - The company’s P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 100.1 in 2023 to 32.7 by 2027, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [2][6] Performance Highlights - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 723 million, a year-on-year increase of 29.09%, and a net profit of 139 million, up 29.81% [5] - The film "Little Monster" has grossed 1.707 billion at the box office, ranking fifth in the annual box office for 2025 in China [5] - Cost control measures have led to a significant increase in overall gross margin to 48.16%, reflecting a 29.05 percentage point increase year-on-year [5]