Core Viewpoint - The mortgage rate index (MMI) in Hong Kong has decreased to 3.38% in October, reflecting a 14 basis point drop from the previous month after three consecutive months of increase [1] Group 1: Mortgage Rate Trends - The MMI, which indicates the actual interest rates available to new mortgage customers, reported a decrease of 14 basis points to 3.38% in October [1] - The average one-month HIBOR was reported at 3.5% in October, but banks in Hong Kong lowered their best lending rates by a total of 25 basis points in September and October, resulting in a new capped interest rate of 3.25% for new mortgage owners [1] - As of November 26, the one-month HIBOR was at 2.98%, and it is expected to fluctuate around the 3% level due to year-end factors [1] Group 2: Economic Influences - The U.S. job market is deteriorating, leading to expectations that the Federal Reserve may implement a preventive rate cut of 25 basis points in the upcoming meeting [2] - The future trajectory of HIBOR will depend on capital flows; if more funds flow into Hong Kong, HIBOR may challenge levels below 2%, potentially allowing mortgage owners to secure rates lower than the capped rate [2]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong mortgage insurance market is experiencing a significant increase in both the number of new applications and the total amount insured, indicating a recovery in the real estate market following the announcement of the fiscal budget [1][2] Group 1: Mortgage Insurance Statistics - In April 2025, the number of new mortgage insurance applications increased by 18.4% month-on-month, reaching 610 applications, while the total amount insured surged by 30% to HKD 3.4 billion, marking a seven-month high for both metrics [1] - The number of new mortgage insurance applications has risen for four consecutive months, with April's figures reaching 1,490 applications, a 10% month-on-month increase and the highest in eight months [1] - The total loan amount associated with new applications grew by 7.4% to HKD 7.1 billion, also a six-month high [1] Group 2: Market Trends and Influences - The increase in mortgage insurance applications is attributed to a recovery in the Hong Kong property market following the fiscal budget announcement, with a notable rise in transactions exceeding 50% in March [1] - The proportion of new mortgage insurance applications for first-hand properties rose significantly from 34% in March to 54% in April, driven by earlier transactions of new developments [1] - Despite the positive trends in April, the overall number of new mortgage insurance applications for the first four months of 2025 was 2,169, a decrease of 17.3% compared to the same period last year, with the total amount insured at HKD 11.3 billion, down 18.4% year-on-year [2]