2、离岸人民币外汇市场 12月，离岸（CNH）人民币兑美元即期汇率升值，在岸（CNY）人民币兑美元即期汇率升值。 即期市场：12月31日，CNH兑美元即期汇率收于6.9755，较上月末升值1.37%；CNY兑美元即期汇率收于6.9890，较上月末升值1.29%；日均平均价差 （CNY-CNH的绝对值）为59BP，较上月增加11BP。CFETS人民币汇率指数、参考BIS货币篮子、参考SDR货币篮子的人民币汇率指数分别为97.64、 104.42、92.45，分别较上月末下降0.29%、下降0.05%、下降0.01%。 汇率衍生品市场：价格方面，CNH 1年期掉期点收于-1277BP，较上月末上升74BP；CNY 1年期掉期点收于-1125BP，较上月末上升171BP。在岸和离岸日均 掉期点差（CNH-CNY）的绝对值为86BP，较上月上升16BP。成交量方面，2025年12月，港交所USD/CNH期货标准合约成交量为178.37万张，较上月减少 6.07%，月末未平仓合约3.23万张，较上月减少5.73%。港交所USD/CNH期权合约成交55张，较上月增加358.3%，月末未平仓合约309张，较上月减少5.2% ...

Group 1 - Standard Chartered's economist for Greater China, Chen Guanlin, expects HIBOR to closely reflect the trends of SOFR, with a forecast of 3-month HIBOR fluctuating around 3% in 2026, down from a previous estimate of 3.5% [1] - The bank anticipates that the U.S. economy will see accelerated growth due to AI-related investments, which may lead to an increase in inflation, thereby limiting the Federal Reserve's capacity for rate cuts in 2026 [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has intervened in the currency market by buying HKD and selling USD, resulting in a reduction of the banking system's aggregate balance from HKD 173.4 billion at the end of May to HKD 54.1 billion by the end of August [1] Group 2 - Standard Chartered indicates that due to a slowdown in capital inflows to the stock market and the ongoing recovery of the Hong Kong real estate market, there is limited room for further depreciation of the USD/HKD exchange rate in early 2026 [2] - The bank notes that seasonal factors towards the end of the year and index adjustments may lead to a slight tightening of HKD liquidity [2] - Ongoing debt swap activities may exert further appreciation pressure on HKD cross-currency swaps [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Mortgage Market Index (MMI) for November 2025 shows a decline to 3.31%, marking a 7 basis points drop month-on-month and reaching a three-month low, indicating a trend of decreasing mortgage rates in Hong Kong [1] Group 1: Mortgage Rates - The MMI reflects the actual interest rates that new mortgage customers can achieve, which has decreased for two consecutive months [1] - The new capped interest rate for H mortgages has fallen to 3.25% following adjustments in the best lending rates by banks in September and October of the previous year [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The one-month HIBOR is reported at 2.98%, with expectations that the Federal Reserve may implement preventive rate cuts in the first half of the year due to greater risks of weakening employment than rising inflation [1] - HIBOR's trajectory will depend on U.S. interest rates and capital flows, with predictions that it will fluctuate between 2-3% in the first half of the year [1] Group 3: Future Projections - If there is further capital inflow into Hong Kong, HIBOR may challenge levels below 2%, potentially allowing H mortgage owners to secure loans at rates lower than the capped interest rate, which could lead to further adjustments in the MMI [1]

Core Viewpoint - The mortgage rate index (MMI) in Hong Kong has decreased to 3.38% in October, reflecting a 14 basis point drop from the previous month after three consecutive months of increase [1] Group 1: Mortgage Rate Trends - The MMI, which indicates the actual interest rates available to new mortgage customers, reported a decrease of 14 basis points to 3.38% in October [1] - The average one-month HIBOR was reported at 3.5% in October, but banks in Hong Kong lowered their best lending rates by a total of 25 basis points in September and October, resulting in a new capped interest rate of 3.25% for new mortgage owners [1] - As of November 26, the one-month HIBOR was at 2.98%, and it is expected to fluctuate around the 3% level due to year-end factors [1] Group 2: Economic Influences - The U.S. job market is deteriorating, leading to expectations that the Federal Reserve may implement a preventive rate cut of 25 basis points in the upcoming meeting [2] - The future trajectory of HIBOR will depend on capital flows; if more funds flow into Hong Kong, HIBOR may challenge levels below 2%, potentially allowing mortgage owners to secure rates lower than the capped rate [2]

Core Viewpoint - UBS has raised the target price for Wharf Real Estate Investment Company (01997) to HKD 23, maintaining a "Neutral" rating, citing ongoing long-term headwinds despite recent stabilization in Hong Kong retail sales [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Wharf Real Estate's stock price has increased by 13% year-to-date, driven by a decline in HIBOR and stabilization in retail sales [1] - UBS expects a rebound in retail sales and profit growth, projecting an increase of 2% to 9% for the years 2025 to 2026 [1] Group 2: Long-term Challenges - Long-term challenges persist, primarily due to the rebound in outbound tourism from Hong Kong, more convenient tax refund arrangements in mainland China, and intensified competition among high-end shopping malls [1] - UBS believes that the recent retail sales rebound is likely to be temporary, with discretionary spending facing pressure after the National Day Golden Week [1] Group 3: Financial Projections - Based on HIBOR assumptions, UBS has adjusted its earnings per share estimates for Wharf Real Estate for the years 2025 to 2027 upwards by 4% to 8% [1] - The firm maintains a cautious outlook, predicting that retail sales in Hong Kong are unlikely to see strong growth in the next two years, expecting them to remain nearly flat [1]

Economic Overview - In Q2 2025, Hong Kong's GDP grew by 3.1% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from Q1, and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.4% [3][5] - Private consumption expenditure rose by 1.9% year-on-year in Q2 2025, recovering by 3.1 percentage points compared to Q1 [3][5] - Local fixed capital formation increased by 2.8% year-on-year in Q2 2025, with machinery and equipment investment accelerating [3][5] Domestic Demand - Consumer spending showed signs of recovery, ending a four-quarter decline, supported by a recovering financial market and stabilizing real estate market [7] - Durable goods consumption fell by 6.2% year-on-year, while non-durable goods consumption increased by 3.1% [7][8] - Investment in machinery and equipment surged by 38.4% year-on-year in Q2 2025, reflecting a stable business environment [8] External Demand - Hong Kong's merchandise exports grew by 11.5% year-on-year in Q2 2025, with a notable increase in exports to emerging markets [9][10] - Service exports rose by 7.5% year-on-year, driven by a recovery in tourism services and sustained growth in financial services [10] Employment and Inflation - The unemployment rate in Hong Kong slightly increased to 3.5% in Q2 2025, with a further rise to 3.9% by August 2025 [12] - The overall consumer price index (CPI) increased by 1.8% year-on-year in Q2 2025, with a slight rise in private housing rent CPI [13] Financial Market - The Hong Kong dollar initially strengthened but later weakened in Q2 2025, influenced by increased trading activity and changes in interest rates [15][16] - The benchmark interest rate remained unchanged in Q2 2025, while HIBOR rates fluctuated significantly [16][21] - The stock market continued its upward trend, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 4.1% in Q2 2025 [21][25] Real Estate Market - Total transaction volume in Hong Kong's real estate market decreased by approximately 21% year-on-year in Q2 2025, but showed a quarter-on-quarter increase [26][28] - The average rent for private residential properties rose by 3.5% year-on-year in Q2 2025, indicating a potential increase in rental yield [28] - The number of new residential units completed in Q2 2025 was 4,577, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 116% due to a low base effect [33] Banking Sector - HIBOR rates declined significantly in Q2 2025, leading to a decrease in net interest margins for banks [4][51] - Customer deposits in the banking sector grew by 4.0% quarter-on-quarter, with a notable increase in foreign currency deposits [38][42] - The asset quality of banks showed slight improvement, with a decrease in the non-performing loan ratio to 2.13% [53]

Group 1 - UBS reports that following the US Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's adjustment of the overnight discount rate, Hong Kong banks have lowered the best lending rate by 12.5 basis points to 5.125% from 5.25%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The new mortgage rate for newly built residential properties will decrease from 3.5% to 3.375%. Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve will cumulatively cut rates by 142 basis points by December 2026 [1] - UBS anticipates that the continued rate cuts will support short-term residential transaction volumes, benefiting developers and highly leveraged companies such as Sino Land (00083), Henderson Land (00012), Hang Lung Properties (00101), and Kerry Properties (00683) [1] Group 2 - In the first eight months of 2025, private residential transaction volumes have increased by 13% to 15%. The projected total for 2025 is 19,400 for first-hand and 38,000 for second-hand transactions, comparable to levels seen in 2018-2019 [2] - Despite the increase in transaction volumes, property prices remain weak, with the CCL index stable throughout the year due to ample short-term supply. Developers' higher pricing strategies have met with low buyer acceptance [2] - UBS expects property prices to remain stable in 2025, with a potential moderate recovery of 0% to 5% in 2026 after inventory is digested [2] Group 3 - Among developers, UBS favors Sino Land, Henderson Land, and Kerry Properties for their expected superior performance compared to peers, while also showing preference for Hang Lung Properties due to reduced interest expenses from declining HIBOR [3] - UBS has raised the target price for Sino Land by 14% to HKD 11.2, maintaining a "Buy" rating, reflecting a narrowing discount to net asset value from 40% to 35%, supported by strong sales at Victoria Harbour and The Peak [3] - The current dividend yield for Sino Land is 5.8%, similar to Hang Lung Properties, with UBS noting that the market has not fully reflected its HKD 49.5 billion cash advantage, which can support dividends and high-profit land acquisitions [3]

Group 1 - The recent rise in HIBOR is attributed to a contraction in Hong Kong dollar supply and increased demand from southbound capital inflows, leading to a narrowing of the Hong Kong-US interest rate spread and triggering the unwinding of carry trades, which further pushed up HIBOR and the Hong Kong dollar [1][22][23] - Historical data shows that when HIBOR rises by 20 basis points, there is an 81% probability that the Hang Seng Index will decline on the same day, with an average drop of 1.9%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index has a 71% probability of decline with an average drop of 1.1% [4][26][27] - The impact of HIBOR on the Hong Kong stock market is indirect and short-term, primarily affecting financing rates linked to HIBOR, which influences market liquidity and investor behavior [12][39] Group 2 - The current macroeconomic environment, including expectations of US interest rate cuts and a weakening dollar, is favorable for Hong Kong stock market liquidity, supporting the market's performance [15][43] - A "barbell strategy" is recommended for asset allocation, focusing on stable value assets with high AH premium as a long-term base, while also considering growth assets with significant potential [15][47] - Recent trends indicate that southbound capital inflows remain strong, with notable net purchases in major stocks like Alibaba and Meituan, suggesting continued interest in Hong Kong equities [52]

Group 1 - UBS expects HIBOR to stabilize between 2% and 2.5% by the end of Q3 [1] - UBS maintains a cautious stance on Hong Kong commercial real estate risks due to potential increases in non-performing loans related to HIBOR rebound [1] - UBS has downgraded Hang Seng Bank's rating from "Neutral" to "Sell" due to rising credit costs and potential dividend cuts in 2025 [1] Group 2 - UBS anticipates that the compression pressure on net interest income for Hong Kong banks in Q3 will be greater than in Q2 [2] - The bank forecasts a decline in net interest income for Bank of China Hong Kong, Hang Seng Bank, and East Asia Bank by 7%, 9%, and 11% respectively in 2025 [2] - After a 2% growth in loan balances from May to June, the sustainability of this growth momentum remains uncertain [2]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the Hong Kong financial market, specifically focusing on the HIBOR (Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate) and its implications for the stock market, including A-shares and H-shares. Core Points and Arguments - **HIBOR Increase and Market Dynamics**: The recent rise in HIBOR is attributed to a shift from excessive liquidity to a more normalized level, following government interventions in May and June that significantly impacted market liquidity [1][8]. - **Impact on A-shares and H-shares**: A-shares are expected to maintain an upward trajectory, while H-shares may experience short-term setbacks but are anticipated to rebound [2][13]. - **Market Divergence**: The U.S. market has shown signs of slowing down post-inflation data release, while A-shares continue to rise. In contrast, the Hong Kong market, particularly the Hang Seng Index, has faced declines due to tightening liquidity [3][11]. - **Long-term Effects of HIBOR Increase**: While rising HIBOR typically indicates tighter liquidity, it may not have the traditionally expected suppressive effects on the market due to the current economic context [4][6]. - **Currency and Interest Rate Mechanism**: The relationship between the Hong Kong dollar's peg to the U.S. dollar and the resulting interest rate differentials creates opportunities for arbitrage, influencing market liquidity and HIBOR levels [5][10]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Liquidity Recovery**: The recent increase in HIBOR is seen as a normalization process after an abnormal state of excessive liquidity earlier in the year, which was driven by external economic factors [6][7]. - **Future Market Outlook**: The market is expected to face continued liquidity tightening in the short term, but strategic optimism remains for both Hong Kong and A-shares, particularly with upcoming policy implementations and AI-related trading opportunities [11][14]. - **Global Financial Risks**: The global financial landscape is characterized by heightened risks, with potential impacts on asset allocation and market behavior, particularly concerning the U.S. dollar and its effects on A-shares [12][15]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the intricate dynamics of the Hong Kong financial market and its interconnections with global economic trends.