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华泰证券今日早参-20250411
HTSC· 2025-04-11 02:09
Macro Insights - The US March CPI data was weaker than expected, with core CPI month-on-month dropping from 0.23% in February to 0.06%, and year-on-year at 2.8%, below the expected 3.0% [2] - The overall CPI month-on-month fell from 0.22% in February to -0.05%, with year-on-year CPI decreasing to 2.4%, both below expectations [2] - Despite the cooling inflation in March, market reactions were muted due to ongoing concerns about tariffs and their impacts, with little change in Fed rate cut expectations [2] Tariff Policy Analysis - On April 9, Trump announced a 90-day suspension of the reciprocal tariff plan, while imposing a 10% tariff on countries outside China, Mexico, and Canada, and increasing the reciprocal tariff on China to 145% [3] - Tariffs are expected to remain a frequently adjusted tool in Trump's negotiations, with potential for further increases against countries perceived as unfavorable [3] - The market may gradually become desensitized to tariff policy changes, with uncertainty becoming a new norm [3] Energy Price Impact - In March, China's CPI was -0.1% year-on-year, lower than the expected 0%, while PPI was -2.5%, also below expectations [4] - The decline in energy prices has contributed to the downward pressure on PPI, indicating a broader economic impact [4] Fixed Income Market Trends - The 10-year US Treasury yield rose sharply from 4.0% to around 4.5%, despite weakening economic fundamentals [5] - The bond market's significant adjustment occurred without drastic changes in macroeconomic data, raising investor concerns [6] Energy Sector Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission released a plan for upgrading coal power plants to enhance flexibility, indicating a market potential of 100-200 billion yuan annually [9] - Companies like Dongfang Electric are recommended due to their involvement in this transition [9] Aviation and Low-altitude Economy - The low-altitude economy is seen as a key area for investment, with potential market space reaching trillions, driven by regulatory changes and advancements in eVTOL technology [10] Company-Specific Insights - Chongqing Bank is covered for the first time with a buy/hold rating, targeting a PB of 0.70/0.47, benefiting from the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle [12] - Anta Sports reported strong Q1 performance with retail growth across brands, maintaining a buy rating due to competitive advantages [13] - Yutong Heavy Industries showed a 77% increase in new energy vehicle sales, with a robust cash flow supporting its growth outlook [13] - Pinggao Electric is expected to see significant profit growth due to high voltage business expansion, with a buy rating maintained [17] - Wanfu Biology's international business led to a 10.9% revenue increase, with a buy rating supported by stable cash flow and margin improvements [29]