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转债市场周报:指数再创新高,银行转债转股节奏加快-20250706
Guoxin Securities· 2025-07-06 15:07
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 6 - month PMI data continued to improve slightly in June, indicating a stabilizing trend in China's economy. Sino - US trade situation has positive news, but there are still uncertainties in external demand due to ongoing US trade negotiations. The CSI Convertible Bond Index has reached new highs. Although most institutions' holding face - values of convertible bonds have slightly declined, considering the impact of bank convertible bond conversions on the overall scale, their actual willingness to reduce positions is weak, and the allocation demand for convertible bonds remains strong. The supply - demand contradiction of convertible bonds has intensified, and there is room for an increase in the convertible bond parity valuation [3][20]. - It is recommended to choose balanced convertible bonds with high - volatility underlying stocks that can quickly consume the premium rate or high - price, low - premium and non - redeemable equity - biased convertible bonds in the short term. For those with high requirements for drawdown, reducing positions can be considered. In July, attention should be paid to sectors such as consumer (appliances, auto parts, two - wheeled vehicles), technology (PCB, copper - clad laminates, data center power supplies in the computing power industry chain), grid equipment, sea wind, energy storage, innovative drugs, and some chemical pharmaceuticals with stable volume and price [4][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Focus Last Week (June 30 - July 4, 2025) Stock Market - The equity market fluctuated and rose last week. Sectors with over - capacity reduction expectations such as steel, building materials, and photovoltaic performed well, and the innovative drug sector led the gains. The high - dividend bank sector also performed well. The A - share market showed different trends each day, with changes in sector performance and trading volume [1][9]. - Most Shenwan primary industries closed higher. Steel (+5.06%), building materials (+3.96%), banks (+3.77%), pharmaceutical biology (+3.64%), and comprehensive (+2.82%) led the gains, while computer (-1.28%), non - bank finance (-0.72%), beauty care (-0.55%), and transportation (-0.20%) performed poorly [10]. Bond Market - The bond market fluctuated last week. After the quarter - end, the liquidity tightened. The second - quarter monetary policy implementation report mentioned observing and evaluating the bond market from a macro - prudential perspective. The slight recovery of the June PMI and the increase in market risk appetite suppressed bond market sentiment. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield closed at 1.64% on Friday, down 0.29bp from the previous week [1][10]. Convertible Bond Market - Most convertible bond issues closed higher. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.21% for the whole week, the median price increased 1.10%, the calculated arithmetic average parity increased 1.82%, and the overall market conversion premium rate decreased 1.57% compared with the previous week. The arithmetic average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds with parities in the ranges of [90,100), [100,110), and [110,120) changed by +1.71%, +2.27%, and -0.79% respectively, at the 68%, 77%, and 39% percentile values since 2023 [2][10]. - Most industries in the convertible bond market closed lower. Pharmaceutical biology (+2.49%), national defense and military industry (+1.85%), environmental protection (+1.70%), and public utilities (+1.59%) led the gains, while transportation (-1.07%), textile and clothing (-0.84%), automobile (-0.41%), and communication (-0.33%) performed poorly [14]. - In terms of individual bonds, Seli (innovative drugs), Huicheng (hazardous waste treatment), Jing 23 (PCB), Emergency (military industry), and Xingang (thermal production and supply) convertible bonds led the gains; Sanyang (automobile logistics services), Jinji (H - acid reactive dyes), Jingduan (precision gears & announced forced redemption), Huafeng (automobile electronic control systems & announced forced redemption), and Huitong (modified plastics & announced forced redemption) convertible bonds led the losses [2][15]. - The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 323.83 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 64.766 billion yuan, an increase from the previous week [18]. 3.2 Valuation Overview As of July 4, 2025, the average conversion premium rates of equity - biased convertible bonds with parities in the ranges of 80 - 90 yuan, 90 - 100 yuan, 100 - 110 yuan, 110 - 120 yuan, 120 - 130 yuan, and above 130 yuan were 40.92%, 30.48%, 23.07%, 12.75%, 8.96%, and 5.65% respectively, at the 85%/72%, 82%/68%, 84%/77%, 63%/35%, 62%/39%, and 71%/42% percentile values since 2010/2021. The average YTM of bond - biased convertible bonds with parities below 70 yuan was -0.72%, at the 4%/0% percentile values since 2010/2021. The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds was 33.78%, at the 64%/44% percentile values since 2010/2021. The difference between the convertible bond implied volatility and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stock was -13.81%, at the 25%/31% percentile values since 2010/2021 [22]. 3.3 Primary Market Tracking Last Week (June 30 - July 4, 2025) - Libo Convertible Bond was announced for issuance, and Dianhua and Anke Convertible Bonds were listed. - Libo Convertible Bond (111023.SH): The underlying stock is Libote (605167.SH) in the building decoration industry, with a market value of 5.155 billion yuan as of July 4. The company focuses on the design and manufacturing of industrial modules. The issued convertible bond scale is 750 million yuan, and the funds after deducting issuance fees will be used for the large - scale industrial module manufacturing project of Nantong Libote Heavy Industry Co., Ltd [30]. - Dianhua Convertible Bond (127109.SZ): The underlying stock is Xiangtan Dianhua (002125.SZ) in the power equipment industry, with a market value of 8.555 billion yuan as of July 4. The company's main businesses include the production and sales of electrolytic manganese dioxide and new - energy battery materials, etc. The issued convertible bond scale is 487 million yuan, and the funds will be used for the 30,000 - ton spinel - type lithium manganate battery material project and to supplement working capital [31]. - Anke Convertible Bond (123257.SZ): The underlying stock is Anke Innovation (300866.SZ) in the electronics industry, with a market value of 61.207 billion yuan as of July 4. The company is mainly engaged in the R & D and sales of smart mobile peripherals, etc. The issued convertible bond scale is 1.105 billion yuan, and the funds will be used for multiple projects such as R & D and industrialization of portable and household energy - storage products [32]. - As of July 4, the exchange accepted Shenyu Co., Ltd., and there were no new enterprises approved for registration, passed by the listing committee, passed by the general meeting of shareholders, or with board of directors' plans. There are currently 77 convertible bonds to be issued, with a total scale of 123.22 billion yuan, including 4 approved for registration with a total scale of 9.01 billion yuan and 3 passed by the listing committee with a total scale of 2.62 billion yuan [33]. Future Week (July 7 - July 11, 2025) As of the announcement on July 4, there are no convertible bonds announced for issuance or listing in the coming week [33].