证券研究报告 | 2026年03月01日 转债市场周报 转债分歧加剧，预计资产夏普下降 核心观点 固定收益周报 上周市场焦点（2 月 24 日-2 月 27 日） 股市方面，节后市场呈现回暖态势，主要指数震荡上行，成交额稳步放 大至 2.5 万亿左右，市场情绪整体偏积极；在供需格局及政策推动的影 响下，上游资源品成为行情主线，有色金属、油气、化工、煤炭等板块 轮番表现，而影视娱乐、AI 应用调整下传媒板块调整幅度较大。 债市方面，周初在上海地产新政超预期落地、股商联动走强等因素压制 下，债市连续调整；周五资金面转松叠加政治局会议基调平稳，市场情 绪逐步企稳，各期限收益率小幅下行，全周呈现调整中渐趋稳定的格局。 周五 10 年期国债利率收于 1.7877%，较节前最后交易日下行 0.51bp。 转债市场方面，上周转债个券跌多涨少，中证转债指数全周-0.23%，价 格中位数+1.22%，我们计算的算术平均平价全周+3.46%，全市场转股溢 价率与前周相比-4.65%。个券层面，优彩（涤纶短纤维）、双良（太空 光伏）、广联（商业航天）、大中（锂矿）、冠中（环保）转债涨幅靠 前；汇成（先进封装）、微导（半导体设备）、 ...

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券深度报告】 一二级债基增配转债，转债基金仓位提升 ——25Q4 公募基金可转债持仓点评 ❖ 公募基金持有转债仓位回落，加仓银行及电子转债 2025Q4 公募基金持有可转债市值 3082.51 亿元，环比减少 2.63%，但同比增加 7.24%。公募基金持有可转债市值占债券投资市值比为 1.46%，较 25Q3 降低 0.11pct；占净值比为 0.83%，较 25Q3 降低 0.04pct。 一级及二级债基增持。25Q4 股票型、混合型和债券型基金持有转债的市值分 别-9.08%、-11.55%、-1.92%至 8.25 亿元、196.86 亿元、2875.95 亿元。债券型 基金中，二级债基、一级债基、可转债基金持有转债市值分别+3.69%、+2.54%、 -3.67%至 1105.66、663.91、500.68 亿元；混合型基金中，灵活配置型和偏债混 合型持有转债市值分别为+1.53%和-17.88%至 63.61、102.35 亿元。 从变化的绝对金额上来看，各一级分类基金持转债市值均有所减少，股票型基 金持仓市值微降 0.82 亿元，但在本身体量偏小的影响下， ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 指数表现：中证转债指数环比下降 1.03%、上证综指环比下降 0.01%、深证成 指环比上涨 0.19%、创业板指环比下降 0.29%、上证 50 指数环比下降 0.65%、 中证 1000 指数环比上涨 0.76%。 市场风格：中盘成长相对占优。大盘成长环比下降 0.71%、大盘价值环比下降 0.64%、中盘成长环比上涨 0.89%、中盘价值环比上涨 0.46%、小盘成长环比 上涨 0.55%、小盘价值环比下降 0.29%。 资金表现：转债市场成交情绪减弱。可转债市场成交额为 691.88 亿元，环比 减少 7.81%；万得全 A 总成交额为 25566.39 亿元，环比增长 3.05%；沪深两 市主力净流出 300.45 亿元，十年国债收益率环比上升 1.30bp 至 1.83%。 转债价格：转债中枢下降，高价券占比下降。转债整体收盘价加权平均值为 143.90 元，环比昨日下降 0.56%。其中偏股型转债的收盘价为 218.78 元，环比 下降 0.81%；偏债型转债的收盘价为 121.74 元，环比下降 1.04%；平衡型转债 的收盘价为 134.76 元，环比下 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond market showed an incremental increase today, with valuations rising on a month - on - month basis. The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market heated up [1]. - The convertible bond price center increased, and the proportion of high - price bonds rose. The overall valuation of convertible bonds also increased [2]. - Most underlying stock industries rose today, with 28 industries rising in the A - share market and 16 industries rising in the convertible bond market [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Market Main Index Performance - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.12% month - on - month, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.72%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.29%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.41%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.45%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.52% [1]. - In terms of market style, mid - cap value stocks were relatively dominant. Large - cap growth stocks rose 1.06%, large - cap value stocks fell 0.10%, mid - cap growth stocks rose 1.61%, mid - cap value stocks rose 1.82%, small - cap growth stocks rose 1.75%, and small - cap value stocks rose 1.60% [1]. Market Fund Performance - The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 75.05 billion yuan, a 21.99% month - on - month increase; the total trading volume of the Wind All A Index was 2.480892 trillion yuan, an 11.84% month - on - month increase [1]. - The net outflow of main funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 11.568 billion yuan, and the yield of the ten - year treasury bond increased by 1.35bp to 1.82% on a month - on - month basis [1]. Convertible Bond Price and Valuation - The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 144.27 yuan, a 0.38% increase from the previous day. Among them, the closing price of equity - biased convertible bonds was 219.78 yuan, a 0.07% increase; the closing price of bond - biased convertible bonds was 123.36 yuan, a 0.16% increase; and the closing price of balanced convertible bonds was 134.98 yuan, a 0.01% increase [2]. - The proportion of bonds with a closing price above 130 yuan was 82.21%, a 1.89pct increase from the previous day. The proportion of bonds in the 120 - 130 yuan range (including 130) decreased by 1.35pct to 12.67%. There were 0 bonds with a closing price below 100 yuan. The median price was 142.70 yuan, a 0.09% increase from the previous day [2]. - The fitted conversion premium rate of the 100 - yuan par value was 41.29%, a 0.50pct increase from the previous day. The overall weighted par value was 107.23 yuan, a 1.16% increase from the previous day. The premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds was 21.91%, a 1.22pct decrease; the premium rate of bond - biased convertible bonds was 90.01%, a 0.80pct decrease; and the premium rate of balanced convertible bonds was 28.29%, a 0.62pct decrease [2]. Industry Performance - In the A - share market, the top three rising industries were steel (+4.69%), non - ferrous metals (+3.48%), and building materials (+2.75%); only two industries fell, namely media (-1.15%) and banks (-0.46%) [3]. - In the convertible bond market, 16 industries rose. The top three rising industries were steel (+4.24%), building materials (+3.07%), and non - ferrous metals (+2.31%); the top three falling industries were media (-2.23%), national defense and military industry (-1.33%), and communications (-1.11%) [3]. - In terms of closing price, large - cycle industries rose 1.33% month - on - month, manufacturing industries rose 0.09%, technology industries fell 0.70%, large - consumption industries fell 0.01%, and large - finance industries fell 0.34% [3]. - The conversion premium rate of large - cycle industries decreased by 2.1pct, manufacturing industries decreased by 1.1pct, technology industries decreased by 1.3pct, large - consumption industries decreased by 0.38pct, and large - finance industries decreased by 3.0pct [3]. - The conversion value of large - cycle industries rose 2.40% month - on - month, manufacturing industries rose 0.88%, technology industries rose 0.14%, large - consumption industries rose 0.63%, and large - finance industries rose 0.10% [3]. - The pure bond premium rate of large - cycle industries rose 2.0pct, manufacturing industries rose 0.12pct, technology industries fell 1.2pct, large - consumption industries fell 0.034pct, and large - finance industries fell 0.41pct [3]. Industry Rotation - Steel, non - ferrous metals, and building materials led the rise. The daily increase rates of steel, non - ferrous metals, and building materials in the underlying stock market were 4.69%, 3.48%, and 2.75% respectively. In the convertible bond market, they were 4.24%, 2.31%, and 3.07% respectively [57].

证券分析师 债 券 周 评 相关研究 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 王明路 A0230525060003 wangml@swsresearch.com 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 联系人 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 2026 年 02 月 23 日 关税再生波澜，以不变应万变 ——转债周度跟踪 20260213 ⚫ 1. 周观点及展望 ⚫ 节前最后一周转债市场情绪企稳，前期表现较弱的科技制造板块领涨，同时高价、小盘、 长久期转债依旧占优，但整体偏向弱修复，市场仍处宽幅震荡走势中。结构上重点关注两 点，一是百润等超低平价转债超预期下修，下修预期呈现扩散特征，60 元以下低平价转 债估值回升幅度较大，带动 120-130 元转债价格区间表现相对较强；二是权益"慢牛" 预期下，转债市场估值弹性主要由新券次新券和强赎转债决定，分别受科技股走势、强赎 率等因素影响，近期偏低的强赎率形成一定利好，边际上需密切关注上述因素变化。春节 假期期间港股市场整体表现一般，特朗普 ...

南方希元可转债（A类：005461、D类：024077）的基金经理刘盈杏认为，在权益市场中期向好预期和 转债供需错配的双重驱动下，预计转债估值中枢整体维持在中高水平。但转债市场在经历2025年的大幅 上涨后，资产估值也步入偏高位新常态，2026年转债市场的收益预期将从"高弹性"回归"稳健增强"，市 场也将进入个券深度跟踪、差异化分析的精细化挖掘阶段，在强调胜率的同时追求更高的赔率。 2026年开年，全球大宗商品走出了一波震荡节奏，美股、A股等也呈现波动走势。 复杂行情中，可转债基金凭借其既能在股市下跌时提供一定的债底保护，又能在市场反弹时捕捉上涨机 遇的优势，成为投资配置热点。 专题：2026年度投资策略|顶级基金公司、基金经理展望马年投资机会 责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 专题：2026年度投资策略|顶级基金公司、基金经理展望马年投资机会 2026年开年，全球大宗商品走出了一波震荡节奏，美股、A股等也呈现波动走势。 复杂行情中，可转债基金凭借其既能在股市下跌时提供一定的债底保护，又能在市场反弹时捕捉上涨机 遇的优势，成为投资配置热点。 作为行业新生代代表，刘盈杏与债基老将刘文良共同管理南方希元可转债。刘盈杏 ...

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 转债市场日度跟踪 20260212 ❖ 市场概况：今日增量上涨，估值环比抬升 指数表现：中证转债指数环比上涨 0.45%、上证综指环比上涨 0.05%、深证成 指环比上涨 0.86%、创业板指环比上涨 1.32%、上证 50 指数环比下降 0.28%、 中证 1000 指数环比上涨 0.91%。 市场风格：中盘成长相对占优。大盘成长环比上涨 0.01%、大盘价值环比下降 0.69%、中盘成长环比上涨 1.66%、中盘价值环比上涨 0.60%、小盘成长环比 上涨 1.43%、小盘价值环比上涨 0.00%。 资金表现：转债市场成交情绪升温。可转债市场成交额为 813.29 亿元，环比 增长 15.00%；万得全 A 总成交额为 21607.71 亿元，环比增长 7.98%；沪深两 市主力净流出 11.81 亿元，十年国债收益率环比降低 1.01bp 至 1.79%。 转债价格：转债中枢提升，高价券占比下降。转债整体收盘价加权平均值为 143.27 元，环比昨日上升 0.35%。其中偏股型转债的收盘价为 219.24 元，环比 上升 5.28%；偏债型转债的收盘价为 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond market showed a volume - shrinking correction today, with valuations rising month - on - month. The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market weakened, and the median price of convertible bonds decreased slightly. The proportion of high - price bonds above 130 yuan decreased, while the proportion of bonds in the 110 - 120 yuan range increased [2][3]. - In the A - share market, the decline in the positive - stock industry index accounted for more than half, while in the convertible bond market, 18 industries rose. Different industries had different performances in terms of closing price, conversion premium rate, conversion value, and pure bond premium rate [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Main Index Performance - The CSI Convertible Bond Index decreased by 0.23% month - on - month, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.02%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.37%, the SSE 50 Index increased by 0.18%, and the CSI 1000 Index increased by 0.20%. Among market styles, mid - cap value was relatively dominant [2]. - The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 142.67 yuan, a 0.32% decrease from yesterday. The closing prices of partial - equity, partial - debt, and balanced convertible bonds changed by +2.17%, - 0.05%, and +0.22% respectively. The proportion of high - price bonds above 130 yuan decreased by 0.12 pct, and the proportion of bonds in the 110 - 120 yuan range increased by 0.29 pct [3]. Market Capital Performance - The trading volume in the convertible bond market was 72.799 billion yuan, a 9.88% decrease month - on - month; the total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 2.124745 trillion yuan, a 6.41% decrease month - on - month. The net outflow of the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 32.204 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond decreased by 0.20 bp to 1.81% [2]. Industry Performance - In the A - share market, the top three declining industries were real estate (-1.40%), food and beverage (-1.31%), and commerce and retail (-0.87%); the top three rising industries were media (+4.27%), household appliances (+1.11%), and coal (+0.88%). In the convertible bond market, the top three rising industries were communication (+2.29%), automobile (+2.25%), and media (+1.44%); the top three declining industries were textile and apparel (-2.17%), environmental protection (-1.56%), and non - bank finance (-0.90%) [4]. - In terms of different industry categories: the closing price of the large - cycle category decreased by 0.17%, manufacturing increased by 0.99%, technology increased by 0.80%, large - consumption decreased by 0.39%, and large - finance decreased by 0.41%. The conversion premium rate of the large - cycle category increased by 0.86 pct, manufacturing increased by 0.75 pct, technology decreased by 2.3 pct, large - consumption increased by 0.56 pct, and large - finance decreased by 0.22 pct. The conversion value of the large - cycle category decreased by 0.77%, manufacturing increased by 0.59%, technology increased by 1.91%, large - consumption decreased by 0.34%, and large - finance decreased by 0.43%. The pure bond premium rate of the large - cycle category decreased by 0.36 pct, manufacturing increased by 1.6 pct, technology increased by 1.4 pct, large - consumption decreased by 0.54 pct, and large - finance decreased by 0.48 pct [4][5]. Industry Rotation - Media, household appliances, and coal led the rise. The media industry had a daily increase of 4.27% in the positive - stock market and 1.44% in the convertible bond market; household appliances had a daily increase of 1.11% in the positive - stock market and 0.19% in the convertible bond market; coal had a daily increase of 0.88% in the positive - stock market and 0.85% in the convertible bond market [55].

转债市场科技+周期的高弹性，正成为放大可转债基金收益空间的引擎。 截至1月30日南方昌元可转债A过去一年取得63.74%的累计收益率，2026年开年收益率更是一度突破 18%，大幅跑赢中证转债指数。在近日的采访中，刘文良详细拆解了产品业绩背后的配置逻辑、产业周 期研判框架，同时分享了2026年转债基金的投资思路，其以产业周期为核心，结合数智化工具与多元资 产配置的投资体系，也成为把握转债赛道投资机遇的关键。 业绩突围来自认知迭代 谈及旗下产品的业绩驱动，刘文良表示，转债基金的核心收益来自科技成长与周期板块的双重加持，其 中产业周期级别驱动的科技成长是长期布局重点。从过往产品定期报告来看，AI（人工智能）的产业 周期、军工无人化智能化趋势等方向，构成了组合收益的核心来源；周期板块则聚焦有色、机械、化工 三大行业，其逻辑在于下游需求走强时，这三大行业均能迎来投资机遇，无论是AI产业的发展还是物 价合理回升带来的盈利周期变化，都能从中捕捉机会。 南方昌元与他管理的另一产品南方广利的配置思路，因产品定位不同呈现一定差异。南方昌元作为可转 债基金，根据合同约定更加聚焦于可转债投资者，配置上采用"四块积木"组合策略：深度 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the stock market continued to adjust, with a significant style shift. The previously leading precious metals, communication, and electronics sectors had deep pullbacks, while funds flowed to relatively undervalued sectors such as liquor, beauty care, and coal. The bond market was generally volatile, with yields rising initially due to liquidity pressure and then sentiment gradually improving. The convertible bond market had more than half of the individual bonds rising, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index up 0.05% for the week, the median price up 0.69%, the arithmetic average parity down 1.74%, and the overall market conversion premium rate up 0.92% compared to the previous week [1][7][8]. - From February 9 - 13, the convertible bond market continued to deeply adjust with compressed valuations on Monday but quickly recovered on Tuesday. There were unexpected redemptions of some convertible bonds during the week, and institutions showed a strong demand for convertible bonds. After short - term liquidity disturbances, the spring rally is expected to continue. It is recommended to focus on convertible bonds with appropriate performance and valuation levels, especially in the growth technology sector, and avoid high - redemption - risk targets [2][19][20]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Trends (2026/2/2 - 2026/2/6) - **Stock Market**: The market continued to adjust with shrinking trading volume and a significant style shift. Different sectors showed different performances each day. Most Shenwan primary industries rose, with food and beverage (4.31%), beauty care (3.69%), and power equipment (2.20%) leading the gains, while non - ferrous metals (-8.51%), communication (-6.95%), and electronics (-5.23%) lagged [7][8]. - **Bond Market**: It was generally volatile. Yields rose initially due to weak PMI data, commodity and equity market fluctuations, and liquidity pressure. Later, sentiment improved supported by factors such as the central bank's larger - than - expected bond purchases in January and stable local bond issuance. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate closed at 1.81% on Friday, down 0.1bp from the previous week [8]. - **Convertible Bond Market**: More than half of the individual convertible bonds rose. The CSI Convertible Bond Index was up 0.05% for the week, the median price was up 0.69%, the arithmetic average parity was down 1.74%, and the overall market conversion premium rate was up 0.92% compared to the previous week. The arithmetic average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds in the [90,100), [100,110), and [110,120) parity ranges changed by +4.58%, -0.30%, and +1.86% respectively, and were at the 99%, 100%, and 99% percentile values since 2023. Most industries in the convertible bond market rose, with social services (11.45%), national defense and military industry (2.23%), and environmental protection (2.06%) leading, while computer (-3.91%), electronics (-3.30%), and non - bank finance (-3.14%) lagged. The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 4058.40 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 811.68 billion yuan, slightly lower than the previous week [8][12][17]. Valuation Overview As of February 6, 2026, for equity - biased convertible bonds, the average conversion premium rates in the 80 - 90 yuan, 90 - 100 yuan, 100 - 110 yuan, 110 - 120 yuan, 120 - 130 yuan, and over 130 yuan parity ranges were 59.42%, 45.57%, 36.37%, 28.64%, 19.99%, and 20.43% respectively, at high percentile values since 2010 and 2021. For bond - biased convertible bonds with a parity below 70 yuan, the average YTM was -5.24%, at the 1%/2% percentile values since 2010/2021. The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds was 52.09%, at the 97%/100% percentile values since 2010/2021, and the difference between the convertible bond implied volatility and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stock was 10.43%, at the 97%/100% percentile values since 2010/2021 [21]. Primary Market Tracking - **Last Week (2026/2/2 - 2026/2/6)**: Haitian Convertible Bond announced its issuance, and Shangtai Convertible Bond was listed. Haitian Convertible Bond has a scale of 801 million yuan, and the funds will be used for water supply and sewage treatment projects and to supplement working capital. Shangtai Convertible Bond has a scale of 1.734 billion yuan, and the funds will be used for a lithium - battery anode material project [28][29]. - **Future Outlook**: As of February 6, there are no announcements of convertible bond issuance and listing in the coming week. Last week, 4 companies passed the listing committee review, 2 were accepted by the exchange, and 1 passed the shareholders' meeting. Currently, there are 99 convertible bonds to be issued, with a total scale of 154.85 billion yuan, including 7 that have been approved for registration with a total scale of 5.36 billion yuan and 4 that have passed the listing committee review with a total scale of 4.52 billion yuan [30].