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好太太(603848):收入业绩阶段性承压 期待国补带动需求修复
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-04-29 02:40
Revenue Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.557 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8%, with Q4 2024 revenue declining by 15% to 488 million yuan [1][3] - For Q1 2025, revenue was 259 million yuan, reflecting an 11% year-on-year decline [2][3] - The decline in revenue is attributed to weak consumer demand, although there was significant growth in smart product sales [3] Product Analysis - In 2024, revenue from smart home products and traditional drying racks decreased by 7% and 19% year-on-year, respectively [3] - Smart home product sales increased by 19%, while traditional drying rack sales fell by 21% [3] - The average selling price of smart products dropped to 866 yuan due to industry price wars, with expectations of price stabilization in Q1 2025 [3] Profitability Insights - Gross margin faced pressure due to changes in product mix, with Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 gross margins at 37.6% and 47.9%, respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 15.5 and 4.0 percentage points [4] - The increase in sales, management, and financial expense ratios indicates that expenses are rising faster than revenue growth, impacting profitability [4] - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 12.9%, showing a recovery trend compared to the previous quarter [4] Strategic Outlook - The company is well-positioned in the smart drying market, holding a market share of approximately 40%, and is expected to benefit from government subsidies starting in March 2025 [5] - The company plans to expand its product range beyond smart drying racks to include smart locks, curtains, and other smart home products, aiming for a comprehensive smart home ecosystem [5] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 project net profits of 280 million, 330 million, and 380 million yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 20, 17, and 15 [6]
好太太(603848):2024A、2025Q1点评:收入业绩阶段性承压,期待国补带动需求修复
Changjiang Securities· 2025-04-28 23:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [10]. Core Views - The company's revenue performance is under pressure, with expectations for demand recovery driven by national subsidies. The company has a solid foundation in smart drying products and aims to expand into multiple categories to drive future growth. The company has a market share of approximately 40% in the smart drying sector and anticipates a gradual recovery in revenue following the implementation of national subsidies in March 2025 [9][10]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 1.557 billion, net profit attributable to shareholders of 248 million, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 244 million, representing year-on-year declines of 8%, 24%, and 24% respectively. In Q4 2024, the expected revenue is 488 million, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 58 million and net profit excluding non-recurring items at 54 million, reflecting year-on-year declines of 15%, 35%, and 42% respectively. For Q1 2025, the company is expected to generate revenue of 259 million, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 33 million and net profit excluding non-recurring items at 32 million, showing year-on-year declines of 11%, 40%, and 43% respectively [2][7][9]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - The company faces significant operational pressure in 2024, with an overall revenue decline of 8%. In Q4 2024, the revenue decline is projected at 15%. However, the decline in Q1 2025 is expected to narrow to 11%. The sales performance of smart home products is expected to grow, while traditional drying rack products are projected to decline by 19% [13]. The gross margin is under pressure due to changes in product mix, with Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 gross margins at 37.6% and 47.9% respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 15.5 and 4.0 percentage points [13]. Future Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 280 million, 330 million, and 380 million for the years 2025 to 2027, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 20, 17, and 15 times respectively [9].