Core Insights - The Chinese vehicle exhaust treatment industry is entering a rapid development phase driven by dual forces of policy and technology under the "dual carbon" strategy and pollution control for mobile sources [2][3][4] Industry Development Status - The industry is experiencing a deep integration of policy-driven and technological transformation, with the implementation of the National VI standard and the acceleration of new energy technologies such as hydrogen fuel and silicon carbide electric drive [3][11] - The market size is projected to reach 32.8 billion yuan in 2024, with a forecasted increase to 38 billion yuan in 2025, driven by the advancement of the National VII standard and high coverage of the I/M system [3][11] - The upgrade of the National VII standard is expected to release over 200 billion yuan in incremental market space, with gasoline vehicle post-treatment systems projected to generate 164.4 billion yuan from 2027 to 2030 [3][4][11] Driving Factors for Industry Development - Vehicle pollutants are the main source of mobile source emissions, with NOx emissions from vehicles accounting for over 34% of the national total, and heavy-duty trucks contributing over 80% [4][11] - The urgent need for pollution control is highlighted by the contribution of vehicle emissions to PM2.5 levels in urban areas, often exceeding 40% [4][11] - Continuous upgrades in regulatory policies, such as the stringent National VI standards, are driving technological innovation in the industry [5][11] Future Development Direction - The National VII standard is being accelerated, focusing on the adaptability of cutting-edge technologies like silicon carbide electric drive and hydrogen internal combustion engines, marking a shift from traditional fuel to new energy pathways [6][11] - The industry is evolving towards a dual-track development model that encompasses deep treatment of traditional internal combustion engines and control of new energy vehicle emissions [3][6][11] Market Potential - China has the largest automotive market globally, with a vehicle ownership of 460 million as of mid-2025, creating a substantial replacement market for exhaust treatment products [8][11] - The annual sales of over 10 million new vehicles provide a stable incremental market for exhaust treatment systems, supported by policies promoting the replacement of old vehicles [8][11] Technological Innovation and Industry Upgrade - The industry is witnessing significant advancements in technology, with domestic companies making breakthroughs in key areas such as catalyst materials and system integration [9][11] - The collaborative effects within the industry chain are becoming more pronounced, with increasing localization of materials and enhanced system integration capabilities [9][11]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the importance of strict regulation and accountability in the vehicle exhaust emission testing industry, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive approach to tackle fraudulent practices across all related sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Incident Overview - An environmental department discovered that a vehicle emission testing company issued a false compliance report for a heavy diesel truck lacking a catalytic converter, which is essential for exhaust purification [1]. - The investigation revealed that the truck owner had received a substandard exhaust pipe replacement from a repair shop, which did not contain a catalytic converter [1]. - The environmental authorities took action against the testing company and traced the issue back to the manufacturer of the defective exhaust pipes, leading to investigations and penalties for all involved parties [1]. Group 2: Regulatory Recommendations - The article suggests establishing a robust information-sharing and enforcement mechanism among regulatory bodies to ensure comprehensive oversight of all links in the vehicle exhaust management chain [2]. - It emphasizes the need for coordinated efforts to address multi-link fraudulent activities, ensuring that any violations are thoroughly investigated from all angles [2]. - The use of media for public exposure of fraudulent practices is recommended to deter potential offenders and promote awareness among industry participants about the consequences of engaging in deceitful activities [2].