2025 年 11 月 23 日 中小盘研究团队 国七标准发布在即，关注尾气后处理系统投资机会 ——中小盘周报 | 周佳（分析师） | 张越（分析师） | 赵晨旭（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | zhoujia@kysec.cn | zhangyue1@kysec.cn | zhaochenxu@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790523070004 | 证书编号：S0790524090003 | 证书编号：S0790124120019 | 本周专题：国七标准发布在即，关注尾气后处理系统投资机会 国七排放标准被称为"史上最严环保法规"。国七排放标准是继国六之后我国机 动车排放标准的进一步升级，旨在更严格地控制污染物和温室气体排放，推动汽 车产业向绿色、低碳方向转型，按照工作进展规划，2027 年可能发布国七标准， 2029 年正式实施。在最新标准进展中，轻型车变动较大，重型车标准变化相对 较少。国七中将插混汽车、增程式汽车的检测归入到混合动力汽车之中。沃尔沃、 戴姆勒等企业的实验室数据显示，满足国七标准的柴油发动机需要达成：氮氧化 物排放量＜30mg/km，较国六降低 60 ...

Summary of Zhongzi Technology Conference Call Industry Overview - Zhongzi Technology holds the highest market share in the natural gas catalyst market, estimated at 30%-40%, with the fastest growth driven by increased sales of natural gas heavy-duty trucks. Gasoline catalysts account for approximately 30%, while diesel catalysts represent 15%-20% [2][4][5] - The company is positioned to benefit from the upcoming National VII emission standards and the divestment of certain catalyst businesses by BASF, which will enhance domestic production rates [2][6] Key Points and Arguments Revenue and Product Segmentation - In the first three quarters of 2025, Zhongzi Technology achieved nearly 1.2 billion yuan in revenue, primarily from mobile pollution source catalysts, including natural gas, diesel, and gasoline catalysts [4] - The sales performance of natural gas heavy-duty trucks exceeded expectations, significantly boosting the growth of natural gas catalysts [4] Market Trends and Standards - The National VII standard is expected to increase the per-vehicle catalyst usage by 30%-50%, providing a market opportunity for the company to adjust its offerings based on emission regulation upgrades [2][7] - The company is focusing on both passenger and commercial vehicle sectors, with a notable supply of gasoline catalysts to range-extended hybrid electric vehicles [6] Fixed Source Emission Management - Zhongzi Technology is concentrating on industrial VOC management, having initiated pollution control projects in regions like Hebei, collaborating with major companies such as PetroChina and Sinopec [2][8] Hydrogen Fuel Cell Development - The company has begun generating sales revenue from its hydrogen fuel cell business, with a production line capable of producing 100 kg of platinum-carbon catalysts annually. However, the end-market remains immature, leading to relatively low sales volumes [9][10] - Collaborations with companies like Dongfang Electric and SAIC are in place, with five hydrogen fuel cell engine models already secured [10][11] Energy Storage Business Model - The energy storage business includes selling energy storage cabinets in overseas markets and engaging in Energy Management Contracting (EMC) in domestic markets, primarily in the Sichuan-Chongqing region [3][12] - The EMC projects have a total installed capacity of approximately 20-30 MW, generating about 5 million yuan in stable cash flow monthly, with an investment payback period of 7-9 years and a profit margin exceeding 40% [3][12][16] Composite Materials and Future Projects - The composite materials business is expected to reach operational status by the end of 2025, targeting aerospace and civilian drone markets [3][17] - The carbon valley industry VOCs catalyst is anticipated to contribute to performance by 2026, while solid-state batteries are still in the experimental phase [3][17] Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about future revenue and profit growth, primarily driven by catalyst business and large orders from key clients like Weichai, as well as collaborations with automakers such as Changan and Li Auto [20] - New business investments may exert some pressure, but overall profit is expected to improve as these ventures begin to contribute to revenue [20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the environmental protection sector [2] Core Viewpoints - The iteration of the National VII emission standards is expected to expand the exhaust after-treatment market, with a projected market space of 100 billion yuan [3][7] - The National VII standards are accelerating, with significant advancements in technology routes, including EHC and tightly coupled SCR systems, which are anticipated to enhance product value [6][45] - Companies with leading technology and product competitiveness in the National VII industrial chain, such as Aikelan and Aofu Technology, are expected to benefit from this market expansion [3][10] Summary by Sections Emission Standards and Market Potential - Mobile sources are a significant contributor to air pollution in China, with motor vehicle emissions accounting for 72% of total emissions [4][12] - The National VII standards are currently in the third phase of pre-research, with the aim to further reduce NOx and particulate matter emissions [5][22] - The exhaust after-treatment market is projected to reach 100 billion yuan, driven by the transition from National VI to National VII standards [7][47] Technological Advancements - The National VII standards will likely introduce new technologies to improve NOx reduction and cold start control, enhancing the efficiency of exhaust after-treatment systems [6][45] - The use of EHC technology is expected to significantly improve SCR conversion efficiency, meeting stringent emission regulations [33][45] Recommended Companies - Aikelan (300816 CH) is recommended with a "Buy" rating, targeting a price of 48.40 yuan, due to its strong position in the National VII market and technological advancements [10][52] - Aofu Technology (688021 CH) is rated "Overweight," with a target price of 21.00 yuan, focusing on its development in the ceramic technology sector for air pollution control [10][52]

Core Insights - The Chinese vehicle exhaust treatment industry is entering a rapid development phase driven by dual forces of policy and technology under the "dual carbon" strategy and pollution control for mobile sources [2][3][4] Industry Development Status - The industry is experiencing a deep integration of policy-driven and technological transformation, with the implementation of the National VI standard and the acceleration of new energy technologies such as hydrogen fuel and silicon carbide electric drive [3][11] - The market size is projected to reach 32.8 billion yuan in 2024, with a forecasted increase to 38 billion yuan in 2025, driven by the advancement of the National VII standard and high coverage of the I/M system [3][11] - The upgrade of the National VII standard is expected to release over 200 billion yuan in incremental market space, with gasoline vehicle post-treatment systems projected to generate 164.4 billion yuan from 2027 to 2030 [3][4][11] Driving Factors for Industry Development - Vehicle pollutants are the main source of mobile source emissions, with NOx emissions from vehicles accounting for over 34% of the national total, and heavy-duty trucks contributing over 80% [4][11] - The urgent need for pollution control is highlighted by the contribution of vehicle emissions to PM2.5 levels in urban areas, often exceeding 40% [4][11] - Continuous upgrades in regulatory policies, such as the stringent National VI standards, are driving technological innovation in the industry [5][11] Future Development Direction - The National VII standard is being accelerated, focusing on the adaptability of cutting-edge technologies like silicon carbide electric drive and hydrogen internal combustion engines, marking a shift from traditional fuel to new energy pathways [6][11] - The industry is evolving towards a dual-track development model that encompasses deep treatment of traditional internal combustion engines and control of new energy vehicle emissions [3][6][11] Market Potential - China has the largest automotive market globally, with a vehicle ownership of 460 million as of mid-2025, creating a substantial replacement market for exhaust treatment products [8][11] - The annual sales of over 10 million new vehicles provide a stable incremental market for exhaust treatment systems, supported by policies promoting the replacement of old vehicles [8][11] Technological Innovation and Industry Upgrade - The industry is witnessing significant advancements in technology, with domestic companies making breakthroughs in key areas such as catalyst materials and system integration [9][11] - The collaborative effects within the industry chain are becoming more pronounced, with increasing localization of materials and enhanced system integration capabilities [9][11]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongzi Technology (688737) has been recognized as a supplier of exhaust purification catalysts for a state-owned automotive group, indicating strong R&D and supply chain capabilities, which is expected to positively impact future performance [1] Group 1: Company Developments - Zhongzi Technology has received a notification for designated development of exhaust purification catalysts for new energy vehicles, although this does not constitute a formal order [1] - The company has achieved significant sales milestones in 2024, with gasoline vehicle exhaust purification catalyst sales surpassing one million sets and entering the supply chain of a joint venture brand [2] - The company has successfully won a bid for a major project involving metal honeycomb precious metal catalysts for a petrochemical facility, indicating strong performance in the industrial catalyst sector [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - The internal combustion engine exhaust purification catalyst segment is projected to generate revenue of 1.453 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for approximately 93% of total revenue [1] - Other business segments, while smaller in scale, are experiencing substantial growth, with the industrial catalyst segment expected to see a 65.73% year-on-year increase in revenue, reaching 13.88 million yuan [1] - The energy storage and related business is anticipated to grow by 309.47% year-on-year, reaching 80.17 million yuan, while hydrogen energy business revenue is expected to increase by 1273% [1] Group 3: Industry Trends - The implementation of the National VI emission standards is expected to increase the complexity of exhaust after-treatment technologies, driving the industry towards higher technology and value-added products [3] - The rapid development of new energy vehicles is anticipated to create new demand for hydrogen catalysts, indicating a shift in market needs [3]

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant contribution of vehicle emissions to air pollution, with motor vehicle NOx emissions accounting for over 34% of the national total, and heavy-duty trucks responsible for 80% of motor vehicle NOx emissions [1][2] - Major cities like Beijing, Shenzhen, and Chengdu see motor vehicle emissions contributing over 40% to PM2.5 pollution, indicating a severe situation for vehicle exhaust management [1][2] Emission Standards and Regulations - The European Commission proposed the Euro 7 emission standards in November 2022, set to replace Euro 6, with implementation timelines for light and heavy vehicles outlined [3] - The transition from Euro 6 to Euro 7 provides a forward-looking guide for the development of China's National 7 (国七) standards, with stricter limits on heavy vehicle emissions and new requirements for non-exhaust pollutants [3] Market Opportunities - The National 7 standards are expected to create a market space exceeding 200 billion yuan in the automotive after-treatment sector from 2027 to 2030, driven by the need for new components and system upgrades [4][5] - Key areas of focus for new components under the National 7 standards include cold start emissions reduction, nitrogen oxide reduction, and monitoring system upgrades [4] - The projected incremental market space for automotive after-treatment is estimated at 244.2 billion yuan in 2027, increasing to 733.1 billion yuan by 2030 [5] Recommended Companies - Companies with strong technological capabilities and broad product layouts in the after-treatment sector are recommended for investment, including Yunyi Electric, Aikelan, Zhongzi Technology, and Weifu High-Tech [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the importance of vehicle exhaust emission control as motor vehicle emissions have become a major source of air pollution, with NOx emissions from vehicles accounting for over 34% of the national total, and heavy-duty trucks contributing 80% of vehicle NOx emissions [1] - The report highlights that in major cities like Beijing, Shenzhen, and Chengdu, vehicle emissions contribute to over 40% of PM2.5 pollution, indicating a severe situation for vehicle exhaust management [1] - The report suggests that the implementation of the National VII standard will significantly expand the automotive after-treatment market, recommending attention to high-quality companies with strong technical capabilities and broad product layouts in the after-treatment sector [1] Group 2 - The European Union's Euro VII standard, which will replace Euro VI, is set to take effect in May 2024, providing a forward-looking reference for the formulation of the National VII standard [2] - Key changes from Euro VI to Euro VII include stricter limits on heavy-duty vehicle emissions, new requirements for non-exhaust pollutants, and upgraded monitoring systems for vehicle durability and battery performance [2] Group 3 - The National VII standard is progressing, with significant market opportunities expected in the automotive after-treatment sector, potentially exceeding 200 billion yuan from 2027 to 2030 [3] - The report anticipates that new components under the National VII standard will focus on cold start emissions reduction, nitrogen oxide reduction, and monitoring system upgrades, with specific new parts expected for both gasoline and diesel engines [3] - Based on predictions for component prices and vehicle production, the incremental market space for automotive after-treatment is projected to be 244.2 billion yuan in 2027, increasing to 733.1 billion yuan by 2030, totaling over 2 trillion yuan [3]

Core Insights - The Chinese automotive lubricants and additives market is substantial, with nearly 30 million vehicles produced annually, even if half transition to electric vehicles, the production of fuel vehicles will still rival the entire U.S. automotive market [2] - Lubricants are essential for the longevity of electric vehicles, as highlighted by Rebecca Liebert, CEO of Lubrizol [2] - The rapid adoption of new energy vehicles (NEVs) is reshaping the structure and operational boundaries of the automotive system, presenting unprecedented challenges for lubrication systems [3][4] Industry Trends - The penetration rate of hybrid vehicles is continuously increasing, and alternative fuel technologies such as hydrogen fuel cells, natural gas, and methanol are entering large-scale exploration [2] - The Chinese government is developing the National VII standards for light and heavy vehicles, which will align with European and American standards while focusing on pollution reduction and carbon control [2][3] - As of June 2023, the total number of vehicles in China reached 359 million, with NEVs accounting for 36.89 million, representing 10.27% of the total [3] Product Development Challenges - The transition to electric vehicles presents different challenges for lubricants compared to the fuel era, particularly with the technical requirements of high-voltage electric drive platforms [4] - Lubricant companies must collaborate with automotive manufacturers to develop new specialized products tailored to the needs of electric and hybrid systems [4] - The performance requirements for lubricants in electric drive systems, hybrid systems, and battery thermal management systems cannot be met by merely adjusting traditional oil products [3]

Core Viewpoint - The transition from conventional fuel tanks to high-pressure fuel tanks is driven by stricter emission regulations and the need for better fuel vapor management in hybrid and electric vehicles [1][12][15] Group 1: Fuel Tank Types - Conventional fuel tanks maintain pressure equilibrium with the environment and are typically made of high-density polyethylene, which helps reduce vehicle weight and fuel consumption [1] - High-pressure fuel tanks are primarily made of metal, designed for hybrid vehicles, particularly PHEVs, and are equipped with additional components like a carbon canister and fuel tank isolation valve [5][7] Group 2: Emission Control Mechanisms - Conventional fuel tanks are equipped with a carbon canister to capture and store fuel vapors, which are then combusted in the engine to meet emission standards [3][8] - The carbon canister's capacity is limited, and it operates effectively in vehicles with frequent engine operation, creating a closed-loop system of vapor absorption and combustion [3][8] Group 3: Advantages of High-Pressure Fuel Tanks - High-pressure fuel tanks prevent fuel vapor overflow and ensure compliance with emission regulations, especially during prolonged electric vehicle operation when the engine does not run [13] - Vehicles with high-pressure fuel tanks do not require regular engine starts to manage fuel vapors, enhancing user experience by avoiding unexpected engine activation during electric driving [15] - With the upcoming implementation of stricter emission standards, high-pressure fuel tanks are expected to become the standard, gradually replacing conventional tanks [15]