报告内容概要： 在"双碳"战略与移动源污染攻坚的双重驱动下，中国机动车尾气治理行业正步入政策与技术双轮驱动的快速发展期。作为大气污染的首要移动源，当前机动 车NOx排放占全国总量的34%，重型货车占比超80%，城市中心区PM2.5贡献率普遍突破40%，推动治理需求持续升温。法规层面，从国六标准实现燃料中 性监管、颗粒物数量监测等三大技术跨越，到国七标准加速预研并聚焦氢内燃机、碳化硅电驱等新能源路径适配，我国已构建起全球最严苛的排放管控体 系，强制驱动催化剂材料、多传感器集成等核心技术突破，2024年行业规模达328亿元，预计2025年将增至380亿元。市场层面，国七标准升级预计释放超 2000亿元增量空间，其中汽油车后处理将在2027-2030年通过双催化系统升级、传感器集成方案扩展等释放1644亿元，柴油车领域则聚焦重卡系统换新带来 450亿元需求，形成"阶梯式"分区域落地节奏。产业端，全生命周期需求持续释放——4.6亿辆机动车保有量构成存量替代市场，每年千万辆新车销量提供前 端增量，叠加"黄改绿"、I/M制度等政策深化，推动行业向技术深度迭代、市场分层扩容、产业链生态重构方向演进，构建起覆盖传统内燃机深度 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhongzi Technology (688737) has been recognized as a supplier of exhaust purification catalysts for a state-owned automotive group, indicating strong R&D and supply chain capabilities, which is expected to positively impact future performance [1] Group 1: Company Developments - Zhongzi Technology has received a notification for designated development of exhaust purification catalysts for new energy vehicles, although this does not constitute a formal order [1] - The company has achieved significant sales milestones in 2024, with gasoline vehicle exhaust purification catalyst sales surpassing one million sets and entering the supply chain of a joint venture brand [2] - The company has successfully won a bid for a major project involving metal honeycomb precious metal catalysts for a petrochemical facility, indicating strong performance in the industrial catalyst sector [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - The internal combustion engine exhaust purification catalyst segment is projected to generate revenue of 1.453 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for approximately 93% of total revenue [1] - Other business segments, while smaller in scale, are experiencing substantial growth, with the industrial catalyst segment expected to see a 65.73% year-on-year increase in revenue, reaching 13.88 million yuan [1] - The energy storage and related business is anticipated to grow by 309.47% year-on-year, reaching 80.17 million yuan, while hydrogen energy business revenue is expected to increase by 1273% [1] Group 3: Industry Trends - The implementation of the National VI emission standards is expected to increase the complexity of exhaust after-treatment technologies, driving the industry towards higher technology and value-added products [3] - The rapid development of new energy vehicles is anticipated to create new demand for hydrogen catalysts, indicating a shift in market needs [3]

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant contribution of vehicle emissions to air pollution, with motor vehicle NOx emissions accounting for over 34% of the national total, and heavy-duty trucks responsible for 80% of motor vehicle NOx emissions [1][2] - Major cities like Beijing, Shenzhen, and Chengdu see motor vehicle emissions contributing over 40% to PM2.5 pollution, indicating a severe situation for vehicle exhaust management [1][2] Emission Standards and Regulations - The European Commission proposed the Euro 7 emission standards in November 2022, set to replace Euro 6, with implementation timelines for light and heavy vehicles outlined [3] - The transition from Euro 6 to Euro 7 provides a forward-looking guide for the development of China's National 7 (国七) standards, with stricter limits on heavy vehicle emissions and new requirements for non-exhaust pollutants [3] Market Opportunities - The National 7 standards are expected to create a market space exceeding 200 billion yuan in the automotive after-treatment sector from 2027 to 2030, driven by the need for new components and system upgrades [4][5] - Key areas of focus for new components under the National 7 standards include cold start emissions reduction, nitrogen oxide reduction, and monitoring system upgrades [4] - The projected incremental market space for automotive after-treatment is estimated at 244.2 billion yuan in 2027, increasing to 733.1 billion yuan by 2030 [5] Recommended Companies - Companies with strong technological capabilities and broad product layouts in the after-treatment sector are recommended for investment, including Yunyi Electric, Aikelan, Zhongzi Technology, and Weifu High-Tech [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the importance of vehicle exhaust emission control as motor vehicle emissions have become a major source of air pollution, with NOx emissions from vehicles accounting for over 34% of the national total, and heavy-duty trucks contributing 80% of vehicle NOx emissions [1] - The report highlights that in major cities like Beijing, Shenzhen, and Chengdu, vehicle emissions contribute to over 40% of PM2.5 pollution, indicating a severe situation for vehicle exhaust management [1] - The report suggests that the implementation of the National VII standard will significantly expand the automotive after-treatment market, recommending attention to high-quality companies with strong technical capabilities and broad product layouts in the after-treatment sector [1] Group 2 - The European Union's Euro VII standard, which will replace Euro VI, is set to take effect in May 2024, providing a forward-looking reference for the formulation of the National VII standard [2] - Key changes from Euro VI to Euro VII include stricter limits on heavy-duty vehicle emissions, new requirements for non-exhaust pollutants, and upgraded monitoring systems for vehicle durability and battery performance [2] Group 3 - The National VII standard is progressing, with significant market opportunities expected in the automotive after-treatment sector, potentially exceeding 200 billion yuan from 2027 to 2030 [3] - The report anticipates that new components under the National VII standard will focus on cold start emissions reduction, nitrogen oxide reduction, and monitoring system upgrades, with specific new parts expected for both gasoline and diesel engines [3] - Based on predictions for component prices and vehicle production, the incremental market space for automotive after-treatment is projected to be 244.2 billion yuan in 2027, increasing to 733.1 billion yuan by 2030, totaling over 2 trillion yuan [3]

Core Insights - The Chinese automotive lubricants and additives market is substantial, with nearly 30 million vehicles produced annually, even if half transition to electric vehicles, the production of fuel vehicles will still rival the entire U.S. automotive market [2] - Lubricants are essential for the longevity of electric vehicles, as highlighted by Rebecca Liebert, CEO of Lubrizol [2] - The rapid adoption of new energy vehicles (NEVs) is reshaping the structure and operational boundaries of the automotive system, presenting unprecedented challenges for lubrication systems [3][4] Industry Trends - The penetration rate of hybrid vehicles is continuously increasing, and alternative fuel technologies such as hydrogen fuel cells, natural gas, and methanol are entering large-scale exploration [2] - The Chinese government is developing the National VII standards for light and heavy vehicles, which will align with European and American standards while focusing on pollution reduction and carbon control [2][3] - As of June 2023, the total number of vehicles in China reached 359 million, with NEVs accounting for 36.89 million, representing 10.27% of the total [3] Product Development Challenges - The transition to electric vehicles presents different challenges for lubricants compared to the fuel era, particularly with the technical requirements of high-voltage electric drive platforms [4] - Lubricant companies must collaborate with automotive manufacturers to develop new specialized products tailored to the needs of electric and hybrid systems [4] - The performance requirements for lubricants in electric drive systems, hybrid systems, and battery thermal management systems cannot be met by merely adjusting traditional oil products [3]

Core Viewpoint - The transition from conventional fuel tanks to high-pressure fuel tanks is driven by stricter emission regulations and the need for better fuel vapor management in hybrid and electric vehicles [1][12][15] Group 1: Fuel Tank Types - Conventional fuel tanks maintain pressure equilibrium with the environment and are typically made of high-density polyethylene, which helps reduce vehicle weight and fuel consumption [1] - High-pressure fuel tanks are primarily made of metal, designed for hybrid vehicles, particularly PHEVs, and are equipped with additional components like a carbon canister and fuel tank isolation valve [5][7] Group 2: Emission Control Mechanisms - Conventional fuel tanks are equipped with a carbon canister to capture and store fuel vapors, which are then combusted in the engine to meet emission standards [3][8] - The carbon canister's capacity is limited, and it operates effectively in vehicles with frequent engine operation, creating a closed-loop system of vapor absorption and combustion [3][8] Group 3: Advantages of High-Pressure Fuel Tanks - High-pressure fuel tanks prevent fuel vapor overflow and ensure compliance with emission regulations, especially during prolonged electric vehicle operation when the engine does not run [13] - Vehicles with high-pressure fuel tanks do not require regular engine starts to manage fuel vapors, enhancing user experience by avoiding unexpected engine activation during electric driving [15] - With the upcoming implementation of stricter emission standards, high-pressure fuel tanks are expected to become the standard, gradually replacing conventional tanks [15]