Core Insights - Global productivity growth has significantly slowed down over the past few decades, with over half of the deceleration in global economic growth since the 2008 financial crisis attributed to this decline in productivity growth [1] - Total factor productivity (TFP) has decreased from an annual growth rate of 1.6% in the early 2000s to 0.6% post-crisis, with developed economies experiencing a drop to 0.4% and emerging markets seeing a more substantial decline from over 2% to 0.6% [1] - The disparity in productivity levels across countries accounts for more than half of the global GDP per capita gap, highlighting the importance of productivity growth in reducing income inequality and achieving sustainable development [1] Scenario Analysis Scenario 1: Productivity Leap - A cycle of widespread technological innovation and rapid development of human capital leads to significant and comprehensive productivity growth, potentially increasing global GDP growth to 4% [2] - Key investments in education and training are emphasized to enhance workforce skills, alongside the accelerated application of emerging technologies like AI and quantum computing [2] Scenario 2: Automation Overload - Technological advancements outpace human capital development, resulting in a "winner-takes-all" scenario where wealth and power become increasingly concentrated [2] - Leading firms leverage automation and AI to boost productivity, but this advantage does not disseminate widely, exacerbating productivity disparities across firms, industries, and regions [2] Scenario 3: Human Advantage - Human capital development surpasses technological progress, leading to a more human-centered economic activity with slow and uneven productivity growth [3] - Focus shifts towards nurturing and attracting talent, with significant reforms in education and training systems to cultivate high-skilled labor that meets future economic demands [3] Scenario 4: Productivity Stagnation - Both technological innovation and human capital development slow down, hindering productivity growth and leading to stagnation in living standards and socio-economic development [3] - The report predicts significant growth in information technology and digital communication sectors, driven by technologies like AI and cloud computing, while also facing risks related to technology dependence [3] Industry-Specific Insights - The education sector plays a crucial role in advancing technology and human capital development, with increased investment expected to drive innovation in educational technology [4] - The financial, professional, and real estate services sectors are highly reliant on skilled labor and advanced technology, with potential productivity increases of up to 30% through AI adoption [3] - Manufacturing productivity growth will vary by industry, with innovation-intensive sectors like aerospace and automotive expected to achieve rapid growth through global talent acquisition and technology integration [3] - The energy and materials sectors are set to benefit from digitalization and automation, although they face challenges such as supply constraints for critical materials and rising energy costs [3]